Rugby Ken's 6 Nations, Magners League and Heineken Cup Betting

Magners Leagure Weekend 10/09

2010-09-09T21:38:00.003+01:00

Hello again.

I decided to leave the first week of Magners league action alone and just read the reports. Obviously a great result for the Benetton and a solid performance for Treviso against Munster and I was happy Leinster kept it respectable as we aren't fit and disorganised. So I'm hoping that some of the bookies and layers might over react to those games.

Osprey's v Benetton

Of course every Welsh team has high hopes at the start of the season but the Hairsprays have some excellent backup players to add to their International panel now. They lost to Ulster last week by one point but Ulster are the Man City of the Magners league now, spending and paying big with the IRFU's permission. Also Ulster played a lot more friendlies at the start of the season against tougher opposition so they were always going to win this. The Ospreys clicked into gear in the second half to only lose by just a point which was a good sign.

Benetton are the more solid and structured of the Italian teams and are not building from scratch. To put their win in context, Scarlets are shocking away from home, they've only won three times since 2009 away and their team is weaker than last year. For Benetton, I'm of the belief that even though the Magners League isn't anything like the H-Cup for intensity, they are going to find the higher level and away matches harder to be consistent.

Osprey's did play Benetton two years ago in the H-Cup and won away by 20 points and by 60 at home. Whilst Benetton are an improved side now and glowing after their first win I think that they are the team to punish others for mistakes. In Biggar they have a ten who can keep the score board ticking. Ospreys should be looking for a bonus point win and the handicap of 20 looks achievable. The weather doesn't look good for tomorrow which puts me off a spread or higher handicap but I'll take the standard line on.

Recommendation: Ospreys - 2o @1.91 for 2 pts with William Hill.

I'll be studying the Munster game a bit more tomorrow before making a judgement but it looks like Boyles are being a little generous with Edinburgh at -1, most others are -3 or higher. Won't last long.

More previews to follow......

Heineken Cup Semi Finals

2010-04-30T22:23:00.002+01:00

Toulouse v Leinster

A year after Cheika joined Leinster, the province and this squad had their seminal moment beating Toulouse in one of the best games of rugby I've ever seen. Cheika has since shown why he was the most in demand coach when announcing he was leaving 'Les Blues' as he turned the bridesmaids into European champions.

On that day in 2006 Leinster were a different team playing a different style. The match was open, attacking and at some times just plain crazy. Remember this try? Anyway if Leinster of old were to show up with the same attitude, personally I think they could win this game.

Toulouse have a strong squad and are hardly carrying any knocks. Over the past few weeks their pack has become immense and according to the reports I've read Byron Kelleher is back in form after a quite patch. Leinster go to Toulouse with question marks over three or four players, limited game time for others and two losses all be it with weak squads. Sexton is a massive loss but the freshness and fitness of other players is more of an issue to me.

Against Clermont, Horgan and O'Driscoll were unfit and certainly lacking match sharpness. They haven't shown much since that game. The real battle is going to be in the scrum and without CJ starting Leinster are going to be going backwards at every scrum time. They are not going to get the possession and platform to play the percentage and pressure game they need. Depending on how Nigel ref's we could see them being pinged for numerous free kicks and penos. I just can't see how we'll have the opportunity to defend hard with a scrum going backwards.

In terms of a betting proposition the 1.4 for Toulouse is probably too short even though they should win. I couldn't really get overly excited with the handicap of 7 either. Personally I think that Toulouse will either lose or win by 15 or more and it's 50/50 on either of those. Watching Leinster as intently as I have for the past few months there is a worrying trend. They are becoming hesitant at the start, it happened against Clermont, Connacht and Ospreys. The only way they can win this is by starting strongly and keep the scrum working, that's how they won the cup last year. I might get involved if after 10/15 mins Leinster look like they're really up for it and the defence is in Toulouse face, I'll look at the Leinster +7. If it isn't I'll by looking to Toulouse +15.

Recommendation: No bet. Just enjoy it.

Magners League Weekend 16/4

2010-04-16T09:28:00.002+01:00

Leinster v Ospreys

Just a quick preview before the price moves for tonight's big game before a price goes. Osprey's are playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have made a few changes but have clearly targeted their previous two games for wins, of which they got one. Beating Ulster has helped their cause massively to qualify for the Magners league playoffs.

Osprey's haven't beaten Leinster in any of their last 5 games home or away. Most bookies are going Leinster -7 or -8. To he honest before kick off that could drift out further.

William Hill are still Leinster -6 and I've taken some of that. Leinster are missing Sexton and O'Driscoll but are fine elsewhere. McFadden is playing and he is a strong kicker. I'd expect them to take this Osprey's team who have barely had two days in Wales since they lost to Biarritz.

Recommendation: Leinster -6 with William Hill for 2 points.

Magners League Easter Weekend

2010-04-02T12:24:00.003+01:00

I'm back! It's been awhile I know and I did warn you that I would be quieter around the Internationals. Anyway straight into the action starting with the biggest game this weekend.

Connacht v Edinburgh

Connacht as you would only expect put on a good performance in the RDS last week and only inexperience cost them in the end. They've made a few changes today in order to keep them fresh for their big European next week. I've said it before (and sometimes got it wrong) that Connacht find it extremely hard to put two big games in a row. If I was Bradley I'd take a hit on this game for European glory and something to add to the CV when he leaves this summer. They have a strong team out but they've got an eye on next week.

Edinburgh have been stuttering about all season and been dogged by poor away form. They've been slightly unlucky as most of their away trips were to inform teams at the time. They have a strong line-up to chose from this weekend and you have to remember that they hammered Connacht 62-13 in Murrayfield at the start of the season. So how can a team who crucified their opponents and have a better team to choose from today be almost evens to win away? I personally had them at about 1.7 to win and maybe considering Connacht if there was a nice handicap but personally the current price is wrong.

Recommendation: Edinburgh to win at 1.91 for 1.5 pts (with Betfair/888Sport/Bluesquare), Connacht/Edinburgh in the Halftime/Fulltime market @7.2 for 0.5pt with Betfair.

Munster v Leinster

Enough has probably been said regarding the build up with the usual column inch filling clichés, so I'll just focus on the facts.

Leinster have had the upper hand in the last two games against Munster including a massive victory at the beginning of the season. However Munster weren't focused on that game and were worried about Northampton the following week (which they lost) and then Leinster went on and lost against Irish at home.

Looking at the head to heads an interesting stat comes across. In the last six games whoever has won has done so with an impressive margin of at least 7 points but generally around 15 points. Watching some of the games you would know that the scoreline didn't reflect the performance. Case in point being Thomand last season where a severely depleted Leinster were beaten 22-5 however it was just two shocking pieces of defending that game away two tries. A more pertinent fact I take interest in is that Leinster have lost three times this year away and ignoring the Dragons game which was a complete B team they put out, have not lost by more than 3 points.

Looking at the past six clashes there has never been more than a total of more than 33 points points scored. With the conditions underfoot likely to be at least soggy with the possibility of showers the total match points market should be of some interest.

I personally think Munster will win this game and need to win it more than Leinster both in terms of team morale but also their position in the Magners league for a home semi. Both teams have tough enough games next week and of course will have one eye on them. Munster perhaps having the easier of the two but they've stuttered all season unlike last year. Both teams laboured to a victory last week however I couldn't believe the handicap for the Leinster game, Connacht always put up a brave match and Leinster have rarely had 17pts on them.

Upfront I favour Leinster, personally I think Quinlan has past it, Ronan only plays one good in two and missing Paul O'Connell is a big loss to their pack, this should keep the game tighter. They rarely play amazing without him. The Munster back line and especially centre partnership should over power the ever improving but slight McFadden. I'm not happy with Dempsey on the wing for Leinster and he offers very little both in terms of pace and creativity aged 35. One of the new wingers should have had his chance today.

I think we are due a close points game for a change but the total amount of those points will be consistent with history. The bookies range from Munster -4 to -7 and the latter makes it an attractive proposition to back Leinster on the handicap.

Recommendations: Leinster +7 for one point at 1.91 with Bodog. Total Match Points under 36.5pts for two points with Boylesports at 1.8*.

*Also a spread bet is a good option here with sportsspread.com if rain does arrive it could dampen the fixture completely and you've a lot playing for you. Their spread is 33-36 and I can't imagine it being a massive open fixture with more than 40 points.

Magners League 05/03/2010

2010-03-05T18:20:00.003Z

No time for a preview.

Ulster have a strong side who if they play the same as the did against the Dragons will open up Scarlets a lot easier.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.38 with Stan James for 1 point.

6 Nations Round 2

2010-02-13T12:40:00.002Z

It's been a busy week pondering and reviewing last weeks disappointing games. With Ireland and France I personally saw two teams win their games in 30 mins and then decide not to show their main rivals anything for today's game. For the other game, well England apparently won but in my view Wales lost and it just so happened their were white shirts in front of them, England didn't do anything to deserve a win.

France v Ireland

Bastareaud, Bastareaud, Bastareaud. The media boy for the week after swatting some Scottish centres away and being 'unstopable'. Personally I think he is more damaging to the team who play with him than a team who can play at him. He allowed Scotland to break the line plenty of times by running up un-flanked from France's blitz defence. Most importantly France were trying to get this right because they know it's one of Ireland's weaknesses against such a defence. He could be as much of a liabilty as wrecking ball to Ireland. Also, I think his opposite centres know how to tackle and tackle hard.

Ireland last week showed they had moves for 20-30mins and then shut up shop, at least we know it's there. The scrum was excellent, Cullen helped POC destory the Italian line-out and Ferris, albeit recovering from injury, will add more to put pressure on the excellent French back row.

The fact is this is the championship decider and it's a pity the powers that be has put it so early in the calendar. I suppose the French & Italian tourist boards must bribe the officals so that they always have a home nation visiting them on Valentine's weekend. This will be a great game, possibly dominated more by power and determination than finesse which will play in Ireland's hands. Ireland go to Paris today with their best ever team in decades with the best coaching ticket they've had and a plus six handicap. You can't say this is the greatest French side, I'm not a fan of Trin-Duc yet and Scotland exposed plenty of holes in their backline and either side of rucks.

With all the talk of a new breed of French players and their superior power and skill, I think they have forgotten about a guy who showed up on the scene 10 years ago in this same fixture, he might have an impact today:

Recommendation: Ireland +6 at evens for one point with VC.

6 Nations Week 1

2010-02-05T23:42:00.003Z

I've said in an earlier posting I'm going to take things easy at the start of the tournament because strange things happen every year, so baby steps for Saturday's games.

Ireland v Italy

Could Italy be one of those strange things, wound up by Magners League exclusion, not getting a fair crack at the whip and looking to put behind them what was a poor season last year. Thought, I don't think Italy are going to flick the switch and stop being crap however they couldn't be as bad as last year, can they? Parisse is out, they've a new 10 who I don't know much about and they are probably 4/1 for a back to score a try, throughout the tournament. They'll always be competitive upfront and you can't see that stopping with easy targets of Healy and Hayes and will have a strong tight five.

Looking at last years result of 9-38 you have to think the -20 at home for Ireland is perfectly obtainable. That result disguises what was an decidedly average performance from Ireland where they only just scored their first intercept try, followed by another one just before the half time whistle. Italy were six nil up at one stage and Ireland didn't score when they had a man sin binned after one minute.

As great as it look last season Ireland did play quite a patient game and used their experience, preparation and intensity to win every game. If they can apply a stronger attacking edge they will make this handicap. I was going to leave this game alone but after watching the A game tonight I'm more confident that Kidney is asking his players to start games properly and mix the point of attack.

Recommendation: Ireland -20 for 1 point at evens with Stan James/Bet Fred.

England v Wales

Naming the two sides for this fixtures has become something akin to musical chairs. Firstly the merry go around of the Byrnes appeal, then Tom Rees injured, Haskell a maybe, Gethin out, Flutey out. Hopefully the teams will be somewhat similar to the ones I've been looking at for the past half hour when they kick off at 17.30, but I'm sure someone will trip on their shoe lace for the captains run.

One thing that won't be changing in my opinion is Martin Johnson's approach to this game. I'm not his biggest fan in fact I don't think many are, but selecting Toby Flood and then mentioning he has 'good kicking and defensive game' speaks volumes for what England are going to try and do. Reel it right back in Johnny from your statement a month ago out an bold game approach. Expect Johnny W to sit back and play the percentages. As quality a player as he is. his style hasn't evolved over the past 5 years and blitz defences negate his stand off, sitting deep approach which once suited his left boot.

Wales have their critics too and plenty of questions to answer. Personally I think they won the worst the grand slam in the past while. Looking at their clubs performances this year and individual player performance they are playing ok, marginally better than last year. In terms of selections if I was a Welsh supporter I wouldn't like to see Hook playing 13 a quite unfamiliar position for him.

So the big question comes down to price, looking at it England are way to short, at 1.5 with some bookies, if only I could lay that. Sure they have home advantage, haven't lost two games in a row in Twickenham to the Welsh for years but you couldn't trust them. The November internationals identified a lot of problems for both teams but I think that Wales have a much better chance of improving quicker than England. If their offloading game returns the English backlines' defensive capabilities don't inspire me.

There are a lot of if's and buts. The stats are against Wales to win but England, from being in a good position on Wednesday, are now suddenly looking worried without Flutey. They'll dominate in the scrum but that won't win them the match.

Recommendation: Wales +5 at evens for one point with Victor Chandler

Ireland A v Scotland A

2010-02-05T18:06:00.004Z

Ireland A v Scotland A

Just a quick preview before this game kicks off (available on RTE.ie or BBC Northern Ireland online if your interested).

Two strong squads for both teams. Blair, Danelli, Murray for Scotland and Horan, Humphreys and a great back row for Ireland.

Scotland A have sprung a suprise before whacking the Ireland A's last year but I'm going to have to side with Ireland A. I'm refusing to call them there new stupid name however. The handicap of -6 is about right and I could see Ireland sneaking it as they have the advantage of playing a game together last week.

However on inspection of the odds a cracking bet for a team who held possession well last week and only lost out by rusty errors and some wierd selections the Ireland/Ireland halftime/fulltime result looks good.

Recommendation: Ireland/Ireland HT/FT at evens for 2pts with William Hill. WON

6 Nations Outright

2010-02-03T22:16:00.005Z

Ah Spring terrestrial TV rugby, nothing like it to make everyone egg chasing experts.

This year the 6 nations is looking like its going to be very interesting with Ireland playing two tough away games and some of the other teams looking to improve after a dreadful November internationals. First a quick team preview:

Ireland (3.5 to win outright)
A full calendar year without defeat, actual competition at ten, the strongest attacking and defensively organised backline in the northern hemisphere. Sure it can only get better right? Grand slam wins don't come in two's (just ask Wales) and with tough away games I think the slam is out of the question. The front row is clearly an issue as Hayes is not the saviour he once was or that fit, Healy still lacks international experience after bursting onto the scene and our likely hookers haven't got 6 games between them this season! All being said in last years tournament they had only 7 out of 400 rucks turned over on them and retained possession the most. Tight, efficient, brilliant defensively, an ability to handle the kicking game but they just need to learn to attack a little more away from home. Will that be enough though for a win in Paris?

France (2.66 to win outright)
Do you trust them, seriously do you? I trust the players more than the coach. However the French game has been sucked of some of it's flair this year. Apparently the Top14 has the lowest try rate of any league in Europe, however just look at how many teams they have in the H-Cup quarter finals. Paris will be a fortress but a tricky trip to Murrayfield on Sunday will be a test of them jelling as a team. It's a cliche to say it but if they want to they could destroy most teams, however they probably won't and lose one important game.

Wales (6.5 to win outright)
Can Gatty get them back on track? Ospreys have looked a much better team since Christmas, players are starting to come back from injury but you have to think they won a weak grand slam two years ago. Stephen Jones is a quality club player, he can run a show but he is slightly one dimensional and predictable internationally. Perhaps Biggar might get some time to shine but with trips away to Twickenham and Dublin I don't think they're suddenly going to click after last years poor performance. Cooper their new scrum half is also going to be in for a shock.

England (the odds.... it doesn't matter they can't win)
Excuses, cliches, curtains they all cover something up. That 'something' is that Martin Johnson is not an international coach. They have poor direction both on and off the pitch and it's becoming embarrassing on some of his selections and announcements on what he wants his team to do. He stated they are now going to play an expansive game, sure Martin just flick the switch there and off you go. Picking Tait and Flutey doesn't mean you have an expansive game when Wilko is going to stand so far back when they get the ball they'll be smashed. There has to be an improvement from November and their one try (in fairness they were top tryscorers in this tournament last year), they'll have one big game in them but probably be unspectacular for the rest and they'll probably kick away all their chances.

Scotland
With Euan at mass on Sunday against France and issues at ten the Scots still maintain their optimism. Whilst Glasgow have been performing very well all season and they'll have a competitive pack you'd have to question whether the Evans and Lamont will be giving the right platform to score tries. Patterson will always keep them close but when push comes to shove they won't be able to get the tries they need. I expect they could take England at home but only if they are able to open up and have a free flowing game.

Italy
*****Holding Copy******Please return to this section after first game. I hope they won't be like last year, more of the 2008 vintage please Mr. Mallet.

What to bet on?

Well it's a case of what you could have had a bet on. William Hill had England to get the wooden spoon at 80/1. On Betfair 60's has been match so they can't claim an error and they still had a 108% book at that price. It's gone now though

An interesting market stuck up by Bluesquare is their 'to score a try anytime'. Riki Flutey opened up at 2.1 and Matthew Tait 2.83. I managed to get a little on but they've both shortened to 1.83 and 2.37 respectively. Personally I still think they are value. Flutey will get a try and England will score against Italy away and can't afford to experiment with new partnerships. I'd expect both Tait and Flutey to start most of the games barring injury and considering Flutey got 4 tries in last seasons tournament he should grab at least one. Preferably on Saturday so I can rest easy. It may seem like a contradiction in terms to say I was going to back England for a wooden spoon and then I back two English guys to score but they are good value.

What really is interesting comes three weeks down the line with England v Ireland. England start this weekend as favourites against Wales who at least will know what they want and can do. Paddy Power have kindly priced up Eng v Ireland already. Right now I would have Ireland as narrow favs and as shown in November internationals will probably peak closer to the end of the tournament as many of their players are fresh. Unless Paddy knows England are going to kick ass this weekend I'm surprised to see Ireland +2 for Twickenham. Sure we don't have the greatest record their, winning narrowly 4 years ago for triple crown and being beaten last time out quite comprehensively. Barring Ireland completely under performing this weekend and the next I don't see how anything but a sensational performance by England this weekend is going to stop this being a scratch game or Ireland as narrow favourites. England play Italy after Wales away and in that game they really have more to lose than to gain in relation to their performance and effecting their odds for the Ireland match. Get a nice position now.

I'll try and get a preview up on Friday for the weekend, I won't be going big this weekend as I didn't do too well last year. Baby steps....

Recommendations:

Riki Flutey to score any time during the tournament @ 1.83 for 2 points with Bluesquare.
Matthew Tait to score any time during the tournament @ 2.37 for 1 point with Bluesquare.
Ireland + 2 against England @1.91 for 2 points with Paddy Power.

One final note or more like question, would you back that either England, Wales, Scotland or Italy at 3.0 to win the tournament outright? Nope, me neither 1.5 on either Ireland and France looks good.

Half Term Report - Punting Highs and Lows

2010-01-31T20:10:00.003Z

Well technically it may not be half term but now is as good a time as any to review the punting so far this rugby season.

After a blistering start which saw me hit over 18pts of profit and an ROI of about 40% by mid Oct, it was a little shaky after then. Between the end of Oct till the end of December saw me lose 5pts and really drag down the ROI. One thing to take from this period was that some of the games were quite close and I wasn't calling the games massively wrong. I would have been worried if that was the case.

As I kicked into the New Year I had some very succesful results and ended up 3pts back to 17pts of profit by the end of January. Whilst I haven't kicked on since early October I'm quite happy by my jugdement of games. My bet type selection and point allocation could be sharpened to get the most of my game analysis. Personally I've dabbled a little in spread betting on handicap lines and most of my two to three point handicap selections would have paid much better than straight up handicap lines and odds of 1.91.

I hope that you've enjoyed the blog so far this season and I'm rubbing my hands in anticipation of the 6 nations. Last year it was a big red mark on my spreadsheet so I'm going to be a little cautious but I believe it should produce some value bets.

I'm hoping to do a preview in the next few days and might have a small outright bet. Thanks for all the comments this year and I hope that your still in profit too.

England A v Ireland A

2010-01-31T12:52:00.003Z

Profit after this match: £1704 or 17.04 points ROI 25.44%

The first of the A internationals for this year and it throws up an interesting betting market.

Earlier on in the week after seeing the Irish squad I decided to throw a few prices up on the machine. Before seeing both starting line-ups my view was Ireland A (or soon to be known as 'The Wolfhounds') are a proper team. Most of the players will player together or against each for much of the season. They spend a lot of time in camp together, they've plenty international expierence and most importantly they are paid to perform a job for their country as well as province.

Team England on the other hand don't even have a proper first team, have spoken about bringing a new approach to the 6 nations and have never looked liked playing together or even knowing who the person next to them is.

Based on this belief I stuck a lay up on England at 1.5 on Tuesday thinking this would be an excellent value lay as I only gave them a 40%-50% chance of winning. Well I got matched as most of the bookies priced it up at 1.35. I think people may have over-reacted to the weakness in Ireland's front row. Buckley in my opinion is useless (expect to see Ross brought on early) and shouldn't be in the squad and Best and Horan are coming back from injuries, however at least these two have plenty of full international expierence. England posesses one excellent scrummager but Doran-Jones is far from one.

Looking at the rest of the pack you'd have to say Leinster, sorry Ireland A have an excellent mixture of up and coming players in O'Brien, Toner and solid expierence and guile with O'Driscoll and Jennings. At 9/10 you've got an exciting partnership even though Wallace is a 12 but plenty of ability to attack and more so than his opposite number. The centre partnership might not be the greatest but they played together along with the others outside them when they demolished Argentina A's in Tallaght.

England have some good players in Strettle and Waldouck in the back line but as Gearghty showed last week for Northampton he isn't a ten and has an obsession with kicking the ball away.

It'll be a close game but the handicap of +8 for Ireland has to be snapped up. I may lose my lay on England but I still would have had the game a lot closer than what the bookies have it.

Recommendation: Ireland +8 for 2pts @1.91 with Corals or Betfair.WON

Heineken Cup Round 5

2010-01-15T17:55:00.006Z

Leinster v Brive

As always the question many ask for this game is will the French side bother turn up? I'd rather be asking are Leinster ready to turn up?

I don't think Leinster will lose this one, and you'd hope not at a price of 1.02. To be honest though, two teams in the Heineken cup should have such disparging odds as was shown by Treviso earlier this season when Perps came to visit.

With Leinster not having played a game since shortly after Christmas, Jennings and Sexton needing game time and the fact that often when a team gets to 3 tries kicking the points isn't an option I think Brive in the handicap are worth a shout. Leinster have famously struggled even when in good form to put teams to bed when they need a bonus point, however it never stopped them progressing. Remember London Irish only got their bonus point in the last minute in their game against Brive.

Brive haven't their strongest team out but as was seen with Montaubaun in Munster last year, if you have plenty of non French players they still like to take a scalp or put up a fight. Plus they are match fit, have regained some form and won't be encountering anything close to dry hard running pitch which would favour Leinster. With a new coach at Brive players should be out to impress and stick their hands up as they are only a few points off H-Cup qualification again now in the leauge..

Recommendation: Brive +30 at evens for 1.5pts with Boylesports Won. First scoring play, Leinster penalty @2.75 for 1pt with all bookies Lost.

Yesterday's bets:

Ulster v Edinburgh - Ulster HT/FT @ 1.73 for 1pt with Stan James. Lost
Connacht v Montpellier - Connacht -6 @ 1.91 for 2pts with plenty of bookies. Won
Glasgow v Dragons - Glasgow HT/FT @ 1.86 for 1 pt with Betfair. Won

Magners League Jan 2nd

2010-01-02T13:49:00.005Z

Update - Leinster game has just be cancelled.

Sorry I haven't been posting much over Christmas but some of the games have been unattractive in terms of value. Today is certainly the case in Ireland but not so in Scotland.

Edinburgh v Glasgow

Currently there is sleet showers in Edinburgh and they had Baltic conditions over night, actually where didn't? I was just a point off on unders in Firhill and with Edinburgh having the home advantage today they'll probably stop a strong Glasgow side from kicking plenty of points.

Edinburgh aren't scoring tries and I can't see it being turned around today. Glasgow should be good for a win although they haven't got one here since 2000 but they are playing well.

Recommendation: Glasgow +5 for 1pt with Paddy Powers WON, Under 34 points at evens for 2 points with William Hill LOST.

Connacht v Leinster

Leinster have 9 internationals but you wouldn't be inspired by their performance last week which contained plenty of handling errors. Connacht with about 4 ex Leinster players are always up for this but it's too hard to predict where this is going to go.

I'm going to stay away from this game but my gutt says Connacht might actually nip it in the outright. Leinster had trouble last season motivating themselves for this game, maybe they won't make the same mistake however as we saw with the Dragons away resting a lot of players can drop the squads motivation.

Ulster v Munster

This is an in-running game or betting once you see the pitch for me as you really got to see the conditions in Ravenhill before each game. Rain/sleet is predicted at 6pm according to BBC so the under 35 points with Hills at evens is probably something that won't stay for long if it arrives.

I've thoroughly enjoyed watching Ulster and with a first choice squad back and a strong performance that lacked international finishing (which has now returned) they are deserved favourites. However given the level of their performance in Thomand last time I would expecting odds of 1.8 in the outright.

Really it boils down to how Munster will peform. Ulster should dominate them in the second row with much stronger back three and Humphries and Wallace should be more creative than Warwick who is slotting in at 10. Personally I think Ulster will either win by 10 or lose.

Recommendation: Ulster -9pts at 3.0 for 0.5pts with Will Hills.LOST

Christmas Magners League Fixtures

2009-12-25T14:23:00.007Z

Leinster v Ulster

I'm quite suprised by the amount of changes that Ulster have made for this game as I really thought they would give it a go. Unfortunately I think they might be looking to damage limitation on the day.

Their centre partnership have played a lot together but are by no means a match for Leinster's and with Reddan showing some strong form and with quick ball because of a dominant pack in front of him expect the Ulster backs to be facing an on slaught.

Leinster have traditionally played well over the Christmas season and I don't see it stopping here. Considering they've beaten Ulster by over 25 points in each their last two home games the minus 13 handicap on Leinster looks good. Add this to the fact that in three of their last four games Ulster have shipped over 20 points in each you'd have to fancy a full strengh Leinster.

Recommendation: Leinster -13points for 2pts with most bookies LOST

Scarlets v Ospreys

I mentioned a few weeks ago before the Ospreys Munster game that the Ospreys were focusing on key games. If they aren't focusing on this game after watching the Scarlets in the last two games they must be crazy.

Luckily they have a strong team out and sure derbies are always close events but the last two meetings of these teams has seen Ospreys win both home and away. Also their next two games against are home to Cardiff and away to Ulster which they may seek to take a hit on.

Having witnessed how poor the Scarlets have been in the past week it's no suprise to hear they have only won once in seven. They are leaking tries left right and centre and have no sort of blitz defence. This type of defence is what hurts teams like Leinster and Ospreys. I'm sure they'll be more competitive infront of a sold out stadium however I reckon 40-50% of the stadium will be following the boys in black from up the road.

With a strong running backline and what looks like hard ground I fully expect the Ospreys to win this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -3pts at evens for two points with Bluesquare or 888sport. WON

Munster v Connacht

After defying all the odds the true Munster showed their colours for a fantastic victory last week. As for myself, I was a non-believer and one of the doubters in their ability to pull off even a bonus point loss and I never seem to learn from my mistakes with these lads.

Connacht had another win in the Challenge Cup and look to be improving as the season continues. They generally grab a derby scalp or two during the year but these are always at home. They've put out a strong side and the one improvement they have applied this year is more powerful back play with the strong running N Ta'auso.

Munster have made nine changes to last weeks victory and although their replacements are capable players this is by no means a walk in the park for them. Last season Munster fielded a slightly more inform and stronger side than this and won by 15 points. Tomorrow's team has a bit to much reconstruction for my liking and for a backline that has only clicked once or twice this season there are a few too many green players. Importantly Munster have started every half slow this year and with this derby game I'd expect the same.

Recommendation: Half time handicap Connacht +7 @ 1.91 (most bookies) for 1pt. LOST

Glasgow v Edinburgh

The last few Christmas games between these teams have always been high scoring affairs. Briefly looking at the teams today they both seem at almost full strength and the handicap line of Glasgow -4 seems about right, if a touch generous for a Glasgow team who are top of the table. They've been playing well all season and Firhill has turned into a bit of a fortress.

Edinburgh of late haven't been scoring tries but getting some results. You'd have to favour Glasgow at home here however I don't think it's going to be as free scoring as previous games have been. Edinburgh haven't been scoring tries and statistically you can't have 5 clashes of these teams going to unders. If the 'total points' is priced up on previous meetings it could be a bit of value.

Recommendations - Glasgow to win -4 @1.91 (with most bookies) for 1 point WON

Heineken Cup Round 3 Tipping

2009-12-10T23:49:00.004Z

Saturday and Sunday Games

I'm off on the train to Llanelli very early tomorrow morning so I haven't had the time to check the other games.

Initial thoughts looking at the fixture list but these are by no means recommendations

Viadana v Ospreys - If Osprey's are missing key players they may miss the handicap
Ulster v Stade - Ulster need Wallace to win this, possibly could be 10 pt win by Stade if Glasgow beat them by 7pts last weekend.
Cardiff v Toulouse - Perps did well yesterday. If Toulouse have decent team they should beat the handicap.
Brive v Irish - In-running game. If Brive are up for it Irish could be in trouble as they've lost form.
Llanelli v Leinster - I'm at the game so look out for me. Leinster on paper have great team but the 9/10 is weak. If Berne starts well we might make it, otherwise I'm on unders.

Enjoy the weekend and hope you find a few winners.

Glasgow v Gloucester

In theory this game will probably be more interesting than the one in Thomond. You've got two teams who appear to be at full strength and a tight handicap line favouring the home side. A classic rugby game.

The slight favouring of home side of evenly matched teams is fair enough, personally I think it should be more than just slight in this case. I'll always favour a Magners league team performing well against an on/off performing Guinness Premiership team.

Gloucester don't seem to be playing brilliant this season and can't seem to get any consistent form. In fact the one thing they have done consistently is lost away from home winning only one in seven and shipping an average of almost twenty nine points . Whilst they've beat Leicester at home with a lucky knock-on, Leicester were missing Flood who actually helps them score tries. Also they seem to be coming back late and starting their games slowly, whilst Glasgow are the opposite.

Glasgow have only lost twice at home this season both in the Heineken Cup. Once to the best team in Wales, the Dragons and rather unluckily against Biarritz. They are also on the back of a good win away to Ulster who themselves have gone off the boil lately but aren't easy to beat at home.

Both teams possessing strong kickers but Parks gets the nod, the fella just doesn't miss. Personally I think Glasgow are playing well as a unit and have grown up a lot this season. They're top of the Magners league at the moment and have to win this game to hold any hope of getting through. I'll wear my Magners league blinkers on this one and go for Glasgow.

Recommendation: Glasgow to win @ 1.73 for 1 point with Tote Sport. Glasgow/Glasgow HT/FT for 1 points @2.5 on Tote Sport. Glasgow -2 pts for 1 point with many bookies.

Magners League Round 8 Betting

2009-12-04T19:42:00.005Z

Ospreys v Munster

The Magners league gets a fair amount of stick because some provinces take the hit on certain games in order focus on the Heineken Cup. Looking at the Munster team this weekend you can't say that they are taking this game lightly.

Ospreys however are a bit of a different story. Whilst they are ravaged by injuries some of the comments made by their coach in the press are quite worrying for their chances;

"Selection has been made with a few things in mind, we need to send out a team that will be competitive against Munster while taking into account the heavy workload that some of the international boys have had over the last month, and the big games that we've got coming up over the next few months."

Ospreys are playing Viadana away next week which they should win and they'll be pushing for a bonus point victory. Looking at their team, it's not the weakest they have ever put out but their back line is shaky.

The weather is definately going to be a factor for this game with rain predicted. Munster's scrum and lineout should have the edge and you could see during the international period the Irish players were getting to full fitness after a stuttering start for club and country. The only worry is their backrow who certainly are less experienced than the Ospreys that been said the boys in black haven't fired all season. Fitness will be a concern for the Ospreys as haven't played any rugby at any level for two weeks whilst even the non Munster internationals have been playing A games.

Munster haven't lost to Ospreys in their last four meetings and I don't think it's going to change here. They should win this with ease and their is a sense of urgency for them to get their season in order. Comments from the Ospreys manager for me show that winning on Saturday isn't their ultimate priority and Munster should have the power and sharpness to win no matter the conditions.

Recommendation: Munster to win @1.75 for 2pts with Sporting Bet LOST, Munster -2 @1.91 for 1pt with most bookies LOST.

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time to write preview. Both teams normally start well after International break however Ulster missing three key players and Glasgow have a strong side. Bad weather as per usual expected in Ravenhill.

Recommendation for tonight's game: Glasgow +7.5pts @1.9 for 1 point on Betfair WON. Under 35.5 pts @1.83 for 1 point on Bet365 LOST.

Ireland v South Africa - Clash of the hemisphere champions

2009-11-28T11:32:00.003Z

I can't wait for this game to kick off. It's been a big tease this whole Autumn International series knowing that this is waiting for us at the end.

This trip north for the Saffies has been difficult and they are clearly tiring. They had a long list of injuries at the start of the week but a fair few of them came through which somewhat exaggerated their price. In fact it's been a very interesting price graph on Betfair for the past 3 weeks. The Springboks starting off at the 1.65ish mark drifting after losing badly to Leicester and France. Their price moved quickly out past evens once Sexton was confirmed to start along with the fact they had cancelled training on Monday. The latter probably being more important.

I was very tempted to back them at 2.1 on Monday because the fact is they should never got that big. Should have, would have, could have and they are now back to the right price of 1.85.

To be honest I've found it very hard to formulate any straight forward bet apart from a bit of pre-match trading. Ireland will no doubt be sharper today and they'll need to be. If their forwards run off into the distance without protection like they did against Australia there will be turnover ball all day with Brussow sniping at the edges.

Personally I believe Sexton will unleash the backline much better than ROG ever can. Sure the Boks are going to be 'targeting' him however that if he handles it well this can play into Ireland's favour. Having a 7 or 1st centre looking to charge him down can allow him to create space for Wallace. Paddy is a completely underrated play-maker and if he has an inch of space he'll create plenty of openings for Bowe and BOD.

It's going to be a tough bruising game but Ireland will be the fitter fresher team. I believe the prices are about right now as Ireland should never have gone favourites for this game which they did do briefly on Tuesday. I'm going to be sitting back and watching this game with a small value bets and a pint in hand. In fact there may be a few pints drunk considering the last game of today's fantastic schedule ends 7 hours after Ireland's kick off. Bring it on.

Recommendation: South Africa/Ireland Halftime/Fulltime for 0.5pts at 8.0 on Betfair. Tommy Bowe to Score anytime @4.33 for 0.5pts on Paddy Power.

Ireland A vs. Argentina Jaguars

2009-11-27T09:44:00.003Z

So why are they called the Jaguars?The question you should really ask is why is their first team called the Pumas? On all Argentinian jerseys the crest includes a Jaguar however on one of their first appearances on an international stage in South Africa one journalist took it onto himself to come up with a catchy nick name for the team a la 'the Springboks'. However he was obviously never on a safari and got the picked the wrong animal.

A simple enough mistake to make and another could be made here tonight on two fronts. One thinking that because there are so many amateurs in this side Argentina they aren't that strong and two that this is a strong Irish side.

The fact is Argentina as a whole are improving and not just in the pack. If you looked at how their backline against England they were vastly superior even though they had a few amateurs in it. This A team have actually played together a fair bit and have had a few impressive results including only losing by 8 points to England Saxons in the Churchill Cup. Also they seem to be improving as they beat Canada and USA in that tournament and then beat them again recently more comprehensively albeit representative sides.

This Irish side has plenty of well know players but personally most of them I don't think will ever make the international stage. Sure they'll be fitter and have a greater skill set than the Argentina but they aren't amazing. Ireland's pack is very average, with only Mike Ross really going to be holding it up. Ronan as I've said before isn't a great player and the two second rows are far from dynamic. Boss and Humphreys are in form however this whole backline is very small and relatively inexperienced apart from Dowling.

I fully expect Ireland to win but the only bookie I can find pricing it up (Paddy's) might be reading too much into how they beat Tonga who were a ramshankle side. Argentina have played together plenty of times, Ireland don't have a strong back row and it looks to be a windy night. The 18 point handicap is something to get me interested in.

Recommendation: Argentina Jaquars + 18 for one point on Paddy Powers

Do you remember?

2009-11-17T22:34:00.004Z

.... the complaints when England, Ireland, Wales and France fielded 'under strength' teams on summer tours to the southern hemisphere just a year or two ago?

Well its funny how if you're from down there you can call it 'blooding' and 'future building'. Clearly those S14 boys have better PR skills.

Just a thought.

Autumn International Weekend Review

2009-11-16T22:03:00.005Z

Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.

Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.

Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.

The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.

Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.

Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.

Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.

Ireland v Australia

2009-11-09T21:59:00.002Z

More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.

On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.

Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.

I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.

Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.

"And now for something completely different"

2009-11-02T23:08:00.003Z

As some of you may or may not know I work for Betfair in the marketing department, particularly for horse racing.

Anyway I made my first appearance on a live Timeform Radio show check out my debut performance at about 31mins, click here to download

Magners League Round 7

2009-10-29T22:48:00.010Z

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).

Magners League Round 6

2009-10-22T21:42:00.006+01:00

It was a pleasant weekend's betting and I finished narrowly up. London Irish seemingly so focused on beating Leinster two weeks ago couldn't beat a fired up Llanelli which surprised me and my bank balance. Well the H-Cup is parked until December so what's in store this weekend?

Ulster v Leinster

Another weather affected game this. It will be raining quite heavily from lunch time and continue with strong enough wind expected throughout the game. Right that's my Micheal Fish bit finished but it's important.

Team sheet wise the IRFU 2 year World Cup programme is really having an effect. Both teams are far from first choice in key areas but which are the ones that will matter the most. Ronnie McCormack starts in front row for Leinster in what will no doubt be a scrum heavy game and he is a severe weak link for Leinster against first choice front row for Ulster. Leinster have the edge in terms second row and Ulster losing Ferris is big. Horua who comes in is good but I think Leinster really have a form back row in what will be tricky conditions.

Once we get to the backs some interesting selection. Leinster's nine ten is very weak. Berne showed reasonably skill at 1st centre earlier in the season but not a great show at 10. Keane is an average Magners League player but if he can kick well it may cover up Leinster's weakness here. Humphries has been playing well this season but with Wallace rested at first centre once you get out of the scrum Ulster start to look a little ropey. Humphries also isn't the great defender in the world. Wallace is vital to linking up any moves which Ulster have been doing well with this season. Ian Whitten is a strong runner but himself and Trimble are similar and offering only straight line ability and no quick hands. Also neither can kick with ball in hand.

Overall I think Leinster with a strong 11-15 have the edge in the backs. One key point in their favour is that Ulster play from deep and defence a little bit deeper than most teams. Leinster have problems dealing with blitz defences but probably won't have that here. It won't be a classic but has to be better than the shocking game at Murrayfield last night and the unders are probably going to be the one to watch as traditional wet games in Ravenhill end up low scoring.

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 1.91 for 1pt with Stan James LOST, Under 34 points @ 2.0 for 1pt with William Hill WON.

Edinburgh v Munster

I find it quite funny when people get annoyed when no one prices up games for the Magners league on Betfair sometimes. Granted the liquidity can be poor on some games (markedly so this year) however it pays to price up matches. I often have a quick glance at the team sheets when they come out and throw up prices I'd be happy to get matched at. Today I went looking for Edinburgh at 3.0 thinking they would start at about 2.3ish. Bang got matched, it wasn't for much but I'm a happy camper. So if you have an opinion put up prices you'd be happy to get match at. Sure you can price it wrong and be caught on the wrong side (been there bought the...) but if it was a price you were happy to take and you considered it value then it was personally a good bet.

Looking at this game it's quite hard to call. The rain is supposed to come early and often and like Glasgow it should be heavy however not that windy. Both teams have had mixed European results and Munster are starting this season slowly. Edinburgh were very happy to beat an inform Ulster and they started to play well in the last 30 mins of the game. Munster this season seem to starting games very poorly and at this time of year they have traditionally not performed well after coming back from Heineken Cup games. Their set piece has been awful and can't be helped by missing three of their front row options because of injury. Edinburgh have proved tough to beat at home and with the return of Chris Patterson that's like starting off with nine points because of his right boot.

It's a very difficult game to call and I think the weather could stop Munster from kicking on from some improvement that was seen in the second half of their last game. The last four times they've met the score has only got past 35 points once, add that to the weather the unders look an option. Munster this season have been ridiculously slow out of the blocks, only being 6-6 against Dragons at home at half-time and letting their Italian opponents go 10 points up after 20 mins last week. I don't think it'll be a classic and Munster probably won't be able to build phases from weak set pieces so far this season but might just scrape it.

Recommendation: Edinburgh/Munster @6.5 for 0.5pt LOST and Under 38.5 pts @1.9 for 1pt on Betfair or other bookmakers, once they price it up WON.

Glasgow v Connacht

I've had a love hate relationship with cheering on or going against Connacht this year. They have just put two decent games together but importantly they often find it hard to put three together because of their small squad. They defence doesn't seem to travel to well either and on the road they concede a lot of points, on average 31 in the last 6 games.

Connacht have made two changes from last week however they are slightly weaker and no doubt suffering from fatigue. Their back and second rows aren't great and this season seem to be under the cosh for nearly every away game at every set piece. Glasgow return from Europe after two defeats albeit not by much. Importantly they now have their first choice centre partnership and Max Evans back on the wing for the first time this season.

Interestingly this time last year Glasgow started a bit of a run and have always been very strong at home. Connacht haven't won in Scotland for four games in a row and with a thin squad this could be another tough day in Scotland. The forecast predicts heavy rain from after lunch which could stop Glasgow's running style however at this fixture last yea, Glasgow managed to finish strongly and win 30-9 in howling wind and rain so it's not so much of a worry. After Connacht have travelled back from France, only had two or three days to train and just a few players changes I think that the handicap line of 14.5pt is achievable for Glasgow. The weather will be an issue but Glasgow are used to playing with the rain in the faces at Firhill.

Recommendation: Glasgow -14.5pts @ 1.91 for 1.5 point LOST. Price freely available.

Heineken Cup Round 2 Tipping and Betting

2009-10-15T22:32:00.007+01:00

After this weekend's betting current profit is: £1299.85 or 13pts. ROI is 49.99%.

-----Update 17/10/2009 9am-------

Not much time to do write up. Saturday's bets.

London Irish -11.5pt at 1.91 for 2pts Lost and London Irish -22 for .5pts Lost.
Ulster -5pts @1.91 for 1pt Won

-------------------------------------------

Great weekend last week punting wise and the Leicester v Osprey's game was spectacular. Leinster didn't do me proud but it's not all over...... yet.

Dragons v Glasgow

This all Magners league clash is pretty interesting. Glasgow have game controller Cuister back whist Dragons put out two débutantes at each side of the hooker. You always have to be wary of an all new front row and the Scottish pack are no push over. However the overall package from Glasgow this season have been hot and cold.

Glasgow started the season well but fell to a bad defeat against Dragons earlier this season and showed their frailty on the road. I backed Dragons that day as Glasgow weren't at full strength. They do now have Cuister and one of the Evans back which certainly makes a difference however their record away from home is pretty poor and the Dragons have made their home a fortress this season.

I don't think this is going to be as an easy game for the Dragons as it was last time, however apart from Parks you can't see where points are going to come from in the Glasgow back line. Last week was two narrow losses for both these teams but the Dragons have probably more to be cheerful about by scoring two tries away from home and narrowly losing out to a gritty Gloucester.

Recommendation: Dragons -2 at 2.0 on Totesport for 1pt. Won

Perps v Northampton

Leinster beat Munster 30-0, Leinster got beaten by London Irish, Northampton beat Munster and Treviso beat Perpingan so how can you work out this one?

Well the best thing to do sometimes is have a look at what the bookies might think. My 'insiders' at Paddy's informed me that they were offering a shop only bonus price of 3.0 on a Leinster/Munster double. They duly got hammered on the offer and had to drop it. Shortly before game time Leinster were backed in from 1.4 to 1.3. Paddy Powers opened up at 11/10 on Munster which ended up going off at shorter than 4/5 everywhere else.

For this game Paddy's show a two points different on Perps at -8 whilst everyone else is at 6. Perps are embarrassed by last week. Northampton beat Munster, but they should have. The teams deeply affected by the Lions haven't looked sharp or fit and none scored a victory in the first week of the H-Cup.

Recommendation: Perps -6.5 at 1.95 on Betfair for 1pt. Won

Rest of the Games:

I'm going to be out and about for the weekend so might not have a chance to follow the first handicap lines for the rest of the weekend. So if you are online tomorrow at 1ish some matches and lines I'd look out for are:

London Irish v Llanneli - said it many times here, a strong attacking team at home against the Scarlets are great proposition, if you have a strong pack even better. You saw it with Ulster and you'll see it again here with Irish. Anything around the minus 9-10 mark on Irish is a steal. I'd actually fancy a cheeky punt on Irish minus 20.

Edinburgh v Ulster - The northerners have done me proud the last few weeks and I'm getting a little wary and waiting for them to stop their good run. Last year they never won more than two games in a row. They go to the graveyard of Murrayfield however on first look at the win market on Betfair I thought the prices would be a lot closer. Edinburgh's early season form has faded and they aren't free scoring or as dangerous as they were. Can Ulster win a fourth in a row I don't know, however I thought they had a good chance and might be a 2.25 shot. They're currently 2.5 on a 110% book. If you could get Ulster plus 5-6 that would be great value. I'd nearly fancy them to win outright as well at 2.7 if that manages to make it's way up there.

Osprey v Clermont - Team sheet, team sheet, team sheet. If Clermont don't stick out a decent team Ospreys could run up a score. I'm no expert on French rugby so you'd need to study Clermont's team. Ospreys looked great for most of the match against Leicester and are just finding their fitness and form now. If they didn't have two amateurs as props they'd have easily won the game.

2009-10-13T00:03:00.001+01:00

Well a pretty successful weekend and clearly I know more about Leinster, which is a bit worrying.

To the right is a screen shot of the current profit and ROI. Doing nicely

Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

2009-10-08T20:38:00.004+01:00

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost

Magners League Round 5

2009-10-02T17:20:00.008+01:00

Ulster v Scarlets

I'm quite surprised with bookies' line on this one. I think they underestimate Ulster here. Whilst on paper they don't have a great record against Llanelli and haven't enthralled their fans at home their last three games they have been very strong signs of a good team building up. Obviously away to Ospreys they showed some battle and expansive play and then continued this until the final 20 mins of the Edinburgh game at home. Last week they went to Connacht and thoroughly dismissed Connacht, which is something not many teams do at the Sportsground.

The Scarlets luckily have Mr. Stephen Jones back. He automatically adds balance and points to their package however this is his first game back and few returning Lions have flown out of the blocks so far in their first game. Looking at their backline they don't have any stand out line breakers or ability to score tries. Ulster do. With Ferris back as well Ulster want to the monkey off their back and get their first home win this season. I always maintain that the Scarlets can't defence the breakdown and are too slow in this area and Ulster are great counter attackers. Having Wallace back for Ulster also opens up their play and ability.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts at 1.94 for 2 points on Betfair WON and Ulster -16.5points at 6.5 on PP's for 0.5 points WON.

Current Profit: £784.60 or 7.85pts. ROI 34%

Magners League Round 4

2009-09-25T17:34:00.003+01:00

Last weekend was emotional, maybe there is something to be learned from it with my bet choice however I thought there was massive value on the Leinster/Leinster only to be robbed by a Scottish ref!

This weekend is slightly more difficult to pick out the winners on Saturday's games. First up though is Friday night's game.

Connacht v Ulster

I had a few quick texts/comments from my loyal Connacht supporter (notice the singular) to gloat. Fair play to them, they turned it upside down and we've seem some short price teams, Cardiff last week at 1.15 and Ospreys at 1.07 against Ulster lose. Now who says the Magners league isn't interesting, however I think this could be back to business as usual for Connacht.

They interestingly have not won two games in a row in the league since Sept 2006. Last year they beat Munster and Leinster at home but lost to Ulster by two points. In fact Ulster haven't lost to Connacht in their last 8 games.

Ulster last week had a blistering opening pace and looked much better than Edinburgh but missed some early chances and kicks. With Paddy Wallace coming back in at certain I think it adds a little more class and better kicking. Ferris is out however Henry is a strong replacement. With powerful runners likes Nagusa and Danelli Connacht will have a tough time defending them. They were slightly lucky that poor kicking from Keatley stopped Connacht from winning last time though. I just feel that Ulster have more to offer and Connacht though competitive for inter-provs haven't improved their side from last year.

If Ulster come out like they did last week they'll put a score up against Ulster however I wouldn't want another verbal-bashing from the singular Connacht fan.

Recommendation - Ulster/Ulster @2.12 for 1 point with Betfair WON.

Glasgow v Osprey's

On paper Osprey's, in reality Glasgow. What is the story with Welsh teams this year? Apart from the Dragons (the Welsh development side????) not one team has a back bone or a bit of class.

I really think this is quite simple, Glasgow are a good side and Ospreys are pants so far. Sure they might turn it on with Williams back but their back line was flat and standing still for the whole game last week. Added to the fact that I'm expecting Scott Johnson to give me a call to go in at front row for next week they have no pack. Glasgow have an excellent front row and if Osprey's finished where they left off last week they'll be hammered up front.

You can still back both teams at evens at the moment but I would price Glasgow as a 1.75 shot to be honest. They have an Evans back and the impression I got from last week was that they were rotating for the Dragons (the number one team in Wales) who beat them comfortably.

Recommendation:- Glasgow to win 2.1 for 2 points with Totesport LOST.

I don't have time to stick up my profit as I'm running to the pub but I'm in profit, honest ;)

Twitter

2009-09-24T21:45:00.001+01:00

Apparently this was the new thing 6 months ago.

I'm on it and you can stalk me on there if you're that lonely - http://twitter.com/kendoesrugby/

It's Back - Magners League Round 3

2009-09-17T20:03:00.005+01:00

Scarlets v Munster

Munster go into this game with a pretty comfortable win at home against Cardiff, who then showed last night that they really have problems on the road in losing to Connacht. Scarlets who are also bad travellers lost away to Glasgow, who subsequently got royally thumped by the Dragons last night.

Munster are currently 6-0 for the last six meetings between these sides and even though they are weakened by not having their two first choice locks, 7 and favoured 9-10 partnership they are by no means massively depleted. Niall Ronan has stepped up a gear at 7 since leaving Leinster and Manning is playing well at 10 . Luckily this 3 month contract scrum half from NZ actually went to school with Manning over there so at least they know each other and O'Leary is waiting on the bench for a return from injury. There only weakness in the back is Hurley who in my opinion isn't a great player.

Scarlets have one major problem (and plenty of smallers one) and that's the breakdown. With Munster's almost first choice back row available there will be a fierce amount of turnovers and slowing down of play which will stop a very average Scarlets backline from playing. Scarlets in my opinon are side going from bad to worse and seem to be in no mans land with ball in hand.

This is a really interesting game from a punting perspective and some of the bookies have taken different opinions which is always nice to see. You rarely see Munster not being favourites for a game and you should always side with them in that event, especially considering they've beaten these guys 6 from 6. Scarlets beat a completely unfit and under prepared Leinster team at home in the first game and only just after losing in the first half and some dodgy sinbins. Interestingly of the last six games these side have met, they've beaten the current total points spread of 38.5 three times. With both teams so far between them only managing 5 tries in 4 games and Munster having a strong defence I think the unders are value.

Recommendations: Munster to win @ 2.1 for 2 points on Betfair WON. Total match points under 38.5pts @ 2.0 for 1 point on Labrokes LOST.

Comment slash learnings on last nights games:

I fecking hate Scottish refs! Unbelievable denied a nice 4.0 in that game. Connacht showed plenty of spirit to come back from 0-7 down and proved me wrong. Glasgow missing 2/3 players are quite weak while the Dragons look to be a team to back at home no matter what the opposition which could be interesting for the H-Cup.

--------------------------------------------------

Sorry for the delay in getting going again. Clearly I'm still possessing a small hangover from the Heineken Cup victory celebrations!

It's been an interesting two rounds so far in the Magners league with a few interesting results. Most people like to stay away from the first few games. I don't tend to agree, if you've done you homework. For me I've been on holidays and flying around Europe so I haven't had the time to do the intense research you've come to expect ;)

Connacht v Cardiff

To be honest I don't think there could be anything worse than being a Connacht supporter. Somewhat permanently stuck in limbo from ever been allowed to be a good team and scraping around for money. They had a massive clear out with almost a full first 15 kicked out with and only a few interesting signings. It looked like a decent start with a narrow loss at home to Ospreys however that form looked with Osprey's losing to Ulster at home the following week. Then Connacht gave Edinburgh their biggest ever victory at Murrayfield.

Cardiff seem to have better form, losing narrowly to strong starters Edinburgh and rueing some terrible kicking from Sam Night-Rider. This guy had a shocker and couldn't control his bowls. In their second game they lost out to Munster but conceded a massive amount of turnovers and kept it respectable still. If they can and I think they will reduce these turnovers they'll improve.

The handicap of eight points in my opinion is too low due, it's probably based on the belief that Connacht will always put up a fight at home. Hpwever time and time again a team who can unleash powerful runners (Thomas, Heighpenny and Roberts who is just back) against Connacht score tries. The Osprey's aren't on great form and they managed to win by 7 against Connacht.

Recommendation: Cardiff - 8 at 1.91 on Paddy Power for 1 point LOST.

Dragons v Glasgow

This game is quite simple in my opinion. Both teams are getting stronger however injuries are going to be making a difference in this. Without the Evans's brothers Glasgow lack real bite and they didn't finish off the Scarlets last week who aren't a great side missing just one of them.

Dragons put in a spirited performance and have only lost once in 7 league games (and that was Munster) at home. Glasgow only won once in 7 and conceded on average 28 points per game.

Recommendation: Dragons to win halftime/fulltime @ 2.5 on Stan James for 1 point WON and Dragons - 2 @ 1.91 on Boylesports for one point WON.

Osprey's vs Leinster

I know some of you think I'm obviously biased on Leinster, but then again I'd argue by saying I spend more attention watching them and know them better. I was at their last pre-season game and they were completely undercooked and it was why they lost to Scarlets. I think Cheika is just slowly warming them up for a long disrupted season, which a few other teams have. Osprey's with this similar problem have started slow out of the box and missing plenty of internationals. Then again, they haven't been playing great for awhile even with in-form Welsh players.

I was surprised Leinster weren't starting as favourites considering Osprey's lost last week but maybe it's the Byrne return factor. However players coming back might not be as sharp. I think the Leinster forward line are tough with the exception of a weakness in Fogarty, while Sean O'Brien and McLaughlin have been playing stormers. This is where they should muscle Osprey's who were out-muscled by out of form Ulster last week at home.

Interestingly Leinster have been starting games well and Shaun Berne has been keeping the score board running with drop goals. I think this could be a close enough encounter but Osprey's will really have to improve from previous weeks and I really don't fancy their chances of even making the top four by the end of the season.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 4.0 for 1 point on Betfair or William Hill LOST.

Magners League Betting 17th & 18th April

2009-04-16T21:32:00.005+01:00

Well I've calmed down a bit after last weekends heroics by Leinster and punting prowess. Hopefully we'll be as successful in the punting and keep the nice roll going.

Edinburgh v Leinster

Cheika came out after last week's game and said his players were 'broken' after the win against Quins. The team selection clearly shows that some players are broken and can't even make the the flight over. Leinster's strength in depth has improved in recent seasons however it is more because of players being pushed out of their position and falling down the pecking order at this stage than a new breed of fringe players. Really this is possibly the worst team they could field. Although O'Brien and McFadden are good players, the front row and second row are seriously short of game time and most likely ability. These Leinster players aren't sharp and don't have that much game time especially in the pack.

Edinburgh, who didn't play great two weeks but got a strong result, 16-3 against Cardiff (who went on to beat Toulouse), again name another strong squad here. Leinster's inexperienced front row will suffer (and I'd be surprised if they last). They don't have Rocky who has carried them over the line for numerous games this season and Nacewa at ten is worrying. Edinburgh have strong kickers (they are scoring plenty of drop goals) and play a similar style to the England squad Robinson was involved in, keep the scoreboard ticking over. It won't be a try fest barring terrible defensive errors but won by kickers, of which Leinster don't have one. Nacewa kicked for the Blues but if he was good why hasn't he stepped in for Felipe or even take a few long pot shots?

This game last season saw Leinster lose by 3 points against a weaker Edinburgh side and they (Leinster) were at full strength, remember Edinburgh are genearlly excellent at home. I don't think these fringe Leinster players can focus and keep up the league push here, unfortunately.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -11pts @2.5 for 1.5points on Paddy P's.

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Glasgow v Ulster

Ulster lost two weeks ago against what can only be described as a weakend Ospreys team who's first squad were royally whipped last week. Previously before that they lost by around 25points against Leinster who can't score tries. Matt Williams this season has been saying all the right things but it looks like the spark that they produced around the festive season may have fizzled now that they don't have anything to play for.

Glasgow themselves (as predicted by me!) won away against Llanelli. The Scarlets are all over the place at the moment but stilll it was a very respectable result and try tally by Glasgow and they can play when up for it. I think they'll continue against an improving but ultimately average Ulster defence. Ulster have conceded on average since Jan 23.2points each game on the road whilst the Dragons don't seem to have problems scoring tries but conede a few.

So it should be an open enough game and but with Cave and Nagusa not playing for Ulster (because of form issues) they lack some real pace and O'Connor isn't a game turner at 10 yet, so I can't see where the points are coming from. The Evans brothers are quality Magners league players who in good playing conditions (which it should be tomorrow night) will look to reverse the 12-0 loss to Ulster in March in terrible conditions.

Recommendation: Glasgow -6 for 2pts on Betfair at 2.0. Over 38.5pt @1.95 for 1pt on Betfair

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

2009-04-11T10:00:00.005+01:00

Munster v Ospreys

Munster played well and took all the chances required to beat Leinster last week. Ronan O'Gara took his points and they got two tries from soft defending however never looked under severe pressure. I expect this game tomorrow to go the same.

Ospreys are missing Byrne, Henson, Walker in the backs and are weakened slightly in the forwards by injury. Munster have a full strength squad to choose from apart from Tipoki. The Munster forwards should improve from a below average performance last week a should dominate this game and provide their backs, with the vastly improving Earls at second centre, good ball to score.

Ospreys haven't played particularly well all season and all the Welsh teams haven't played consistently well since Christmas. I don't expect this to be a massive try scoring game and even possibly see Munster be outscored in tries but they will win by 10points. Another preview that shares my belief for Munster v Ospreys, click here

Recommendation: Munster to win Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.66 for 2 points, WON. Munster -7.5 @1.92 for 1 pt. WON

Harlequins v Leinster

As can only be expected last week Leinster were berated in the media for a listless performance. I was their shouting them on from the sidelines and maybe I was wearing blinkers but I thought we performed very well and were let down by Felipe's kicking and two very poor attempts at tackling by Horgan and Kearney. These two shocking defensive errors let Munster in to score with their only meaningful attempts at the line. What could be taken out of the game for Leinster was, they had possession, stole 9 balls at the ruck and Rocky Elsom is the greatest back row forward in the world today.

Harlequins have been in excellent form losing only once in 10 games and last week on scraps of possession held back a poor Bath team in the Rec. I've always been of the view that English teams are overrated because of Sky hype and I think this applies here to. Quins have a strong pack however this Leinster pack last week out-scrummed and rucked the best pack in Europe. This Leinster backrow is perfectly balanced and probably the best running back row in Europe.

Quins have an exciting backline themselves with a few in form players and probably the best Kiwi import of the season in Evans at 10, although he is coming back from four weeks off and could be a little rusty. I went against Leinster last week for the simple reason their centre partnership was completely skewed towards a rugby league stsyle. Darcy is not a 13 and Horgan isn't a centre. Those guys don't have the hands to release the rest of the backs. With Brian and Luke back in play this dramatically changes Leinster's potency with ball in hand.

While its a big ask I have to fall back on the belief on what I've been backing all season and that is that English teams are overrated. Felipe needs to and should have his kicking boots back on while Whitaker needs to be quicker (which he was last week).

Leinster opened up at 2.1 and I could never back them at that price. They are now being matched at 2.5 and I think this could even hit 2.6 by lunchtime tomorrow with the English punters coming in on Betfair.

It should be cracker. A more sceptical Heinken Cup Quins v Leinster preview available by click here

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 2.5 for 1 point WON.

Current Profit: €1340.23 or 13.49 points with a 12.41% ROI for the season so far.

2009-04-03T20:33:00.004+01:00

Sorry I haven't been posting of late. Been pretty busy with other things and getting over a Grand Slam hangover.

Scarlets v Glasgow

Looking at the results over the past few days the one thing that stands out is that the Welsh sides are playing terrible at the moment. Connacht hammering Gwent last night and Cardiff losing away to Edinburgh. Ospreys obviously got a result but with sharper kicking the game would have gone Ulster's way.

I just have a feeling considering how stop start Scarlets can be and terrible they are at the ruck Glasgow might get something out of this game. Stephen Jones always steadies the ship with the Scarlets but I think they might struggle to win here comfortably.

Recommendation: Glasgow +8 on for 1.5 pts on Boyles Won.

Munster v Leinster

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Leinster last week and thought their execution and patience was excellent. Without a few key players they showed great maturity to win when they easily could have been losing at halftime. However Ulster really bottled it. Watching their game now against a poor Osprey's side the form indicates that Leinster may have been flattered by the result because Ulster seemed to have stepped off the gas again.

Munster last week did what they do so well and got the points, comfortably against a side that has proved tricky to all Irish provinces before. The lineup of each side really indicates the coaches viewpoint of the importance of this game. I think Cheika has slightly written it off by bringing Horgan in from the wing to centre and keep Fitz and O'Driscoll out of the squad. The only reason to have Horgan in their could be to challenge the inexperienced Earls in that position. Apart from Rocky I think Leinster will suffer terribly at the breakdown as they didn't provide cover and consistency until well into the second half last week.

It should be an entertaining game but I think McGahan really wants to win the title on Saturday and has picked a team to do so. A French ref brought over for the game may be swayed by the home crowd pressure.

Recommendation: Munster to win half time/full time for 1pt @1.81 on Betfair Won. Munster - 6 @1.91 for 1point on Hills Won.

After this weeks bets current profit: €993.98 (9.9pts) and a 9.56% Return on Investment.

6 Nations week 4

2009-03-15T12:26:00.002Z

No recommendations this weekend I'm afraid just a few ideas. With Cheltenham and moving to England taking most of the attention this week I haven't had the time to research.

I backed Ireland -6.5pts yesterday myself which obviously came up, albeit with some nail biting involved. England v France is certainly an interesting game. Looking at the form lines Wales have probably showed they aren't the side they were last year in losing to France who looked much better with Parra at scrum half, still France only seem to have one big game followed by a disappointment.

Le Rostbiffs love to ruin France's day however I find they are too short at 2.16. What is interesting is that fact that most bookies have France -2 at 1.91 while you can back them for a straight win at 1.96 on Betfair. You are getting a strong 20% better price on Betfair which you don't see that often for the Betfair rugby markets. I'll be taking advantage of it anyway as I think France will win as they need something out of this season.

If you did fancy France to really open up and play the 3.5 for France -10 on Ladbrokes might also be tempting. Also worth a tickle is Flood v Trin Duc, click here to view market. With England most likely to concede another raft of penalties Trin Duc is a decent shot to come out top at 2.04-2.2.

Best of luck.

Magners League weekend 03/03/2009

2009-03-06T16:22:00.004Z

After this weekends action Profit Currently: 710.18 or 7.1pts. A 7.07% ROI (posted 08/3/2009)

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time for a write up unfortunately.

Ulster have a strong squad again. The weather isn't great but they should have home advantage and a much stronger pack to make this easily controllable. Glasgow made a late comeback after Cardiff switched off (which they did in the first half last night again).

If it was a nice day for rugby I would have Ulster -12pts and probably punt on the alternative handicap markets but the weather will probably keep it respectable. Glasgow haven't won away since September and are missing a more players through the Internationals

Recommendation: Ulster - 8pts on Boyles or Ladbrokes @1.91 for 1.5pts Won

06/03/2009

Another second string Magners league weekend, where hopefully knowledge is power. I personally find these games great because you get to see emerging players and also see if some squad players are worth their weight in cider.

The Hairsprey's Lite vs. Leinster

I was quite surprised by the handicap line for this game and quickly snapped up the minus 2pts on offer for Leinster by Ladbrokes yesterday evening. Two weeks ago Leinster went over to the Scarlets and got a massive result, winning by two converted tries. Granted it wasn't the greatest Scarlets however this weekend neither is this vintage Ospreys.

Most importantly the Osprey's haven't been playng great this season. They have got results in the league, but mainly by avoiding defeat against poor teams. Tonight Ryan Jones has said these young players will shine as Ospreys are missing 12 first teamers. After watching them against Connacht (the team with the worst away record in the Magners league) they are far from the finished product. They were lucky to lead at half time and only won by 12 points.

Leinster on the other hand are missing only three first teamers and two weeks ago put in a very professional performance and returned to scoring ways. Their new scrum half looked capable, McFadden (as I predicted) played a blinder and Healy proved that he should really be on the Irish 22 soon.

The mid international games are always tricky, but with Osprey's essentially putting up a completely different team to their first team Leinster look worthy favourites. I was suprised with how short the handicap was, I expected minus 7 for Leinster but then again I'm a believer.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 2.5pts @1.9 for 2 points with Betfair , Leinster Halftime/Fulltime 2.62 for 1pt with Ladbrokes and finally Leinster -11pts @3.25 pts for 0.5pts on Ladbrokes.

For some other opinions here for this weekend's game, click here.

Connacht v Cardiff

Connacht need a morale boosting win and 6.30 before the 'daggs' seems to sap the life out of opposing teams. They are practically full strength against a Cardiff side who are missing sprinklings of their first team.

Cardiff were very rusty lask week, sprinting off into a big lead but then letting a weakend Glasgow get back at them. I think the bookies are a little skimpy on the handicap for Connacht here, possibly because they viewed them as keeping it respectable against the Osprey last week. While I thought the Ospreys were just not up to it.

Recommendation: No bet.

Six Nations Betting - 3rd Round

2009-02-27T17:42:00.003Z

Leaving work (still on the clock GR) but just wanted to get my tips up.

France v Wales

What is Marc up to? A new 9, 10 partnership who have barely had two full days to train together this week plus Baby hasn't played 10 since September. This decision isn't as bad as Bergamasco in the first round but is equally as puzzling. Combined with the fact the French players played at the weekend, they aren't fresh or prepared. If Philips can break a line this week they are in trouble.

Wales haven't been playing their best but if they play as they can (and offload this time) they'll beat France. Last week they were concerned with beating England rather than playing well. If they play today France could be in trouble. I'm not the only one who thinks Wales are better prepared click here.

Recommendation: Wales Halftime/Fulltime @ 2.4 for 1pts

Ireland v England

Last time England came they were in rag order. It was possibly one of the weakest teams that ever travelled to Dublin, I was not suprised with the result, especially as most of their players played the week before. This year they aren't much better however their expectations are a lot lower.

Ireland will win this game but I couldn't trust us in the handicap, everything says we should beat them by 10 or 11 points but I'd wait until the first ten mins are up to see what England are trying to do. I really don't think they'll have a plan to beat Ireland, but merely to stop Ireland as they did against Wales two weeks ago. We'll either win by 4 points or 14. One thing is with England getting sin bins like its going out of fashion ROG will have plenty of opportunities to kick for penalties.

Recommendation: Ireland Halftime/Fulltime @1.76 for 3pts and first scoring play, Ireland penalty @ 2.82 for 0.5pt.

Best of luck at the weekend and hope you turn a profit!

Magners League Tips Betting Team News 21/2/09

2009-02-21T09:10:00.007Z

An International break allows both fringe players for the international teams and provincials come together to all stick their hands up for places.

Dragons v Ulster

It been a good weekend for Irish provinces and I don't see it stopping here. Dragons have improved this season however it seems that the Welsh teams this weekend seem to be a little off form. The fact a good bunch of these Ulster players that are playing today played last week for the A game should give them a little more sharpness. The Dragons did play a development game last week however none of their forwards played in it, leading to the belief that Ulster should have the advantage up front.

The one worry in the Ulster team is they are missing Wallace and Ferris, key players in the backs and forwards respectively and Wallace's absence only highlighting an average 12, 13 partnership. Cave has strong running ability but needs Wallace to create him pace and slick passing. However on the wing Danelli is an excellent strong runner and is bound to cause damage against the Dragons. Reading an interview with Ulster No. 8, Chris Henry they are really keen to point out that the league is their only salvation this year from a poor start and its their major focus.

This will probably be an open game and we should expect some high scoring. In the six nations break last year these teams also met but in Ravenhill which saw Ulster win comfortably. Dragons do have almost a full squad to choose from but I think Ulster are better than where they were last year and missing 3 internationals Matt Williams still has kept the team fresh all year to allow experienced players fill the gaps.

Recommendation:- Ulster to win @2.15 on Betfair for 1pt Lost & total tries over 3.5pts @1.8 on Paddy Powers for 2pts Won.

Munster v Edinburgh

I'll be brief as the game is about to kick off.

Munster suffered a few late changes with Ryan out. Every game they have played without POC and ROG they have struggled. I don't think Edinburgh are any great shakes however +11.5pts is too nice considering Patterson should keep the score competitive.

Recommendation - Edinburgh +11.5 @2.1 for 1.5points Lost.

Scarlets v Leinster

I'll never claim to be an expert on Welsh rugby but I have follow Scarlets closely (to my punting expense) this season. They have stuttered through the season maintaining a decent league position without really exploding into life in any games, see Glasgow Warrior game at home where I put up a big bet, and failed.

Without Jones they turn to Preistland who is a decent player however he lacks the game controlling ability of Stephen Jones. Without two Jones' and two forwards Scarlets probably don't have the strength in depth. Being an eternal optimist Leinster do! Darcy is back to his best position and they've abandoned Nacewa at 10 and returned Dr. Phil. It is a very strong backline with two youngsters with promising McFadden and debutant Paul O'Donoghue, both of whom played well in an A game last week. Also it is a very strong forward pack with O'Kelly and Elsom providing some leadership and Healy coming back from a massive A game with Ireland last week.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the handicaps lines open up for this one when there was a 6 point spread difference between bookies. I luckily got Leinster +3 last night with Boyles which was a crazy price as Paddy's clearly fancy Leinster, they were -3 on the handicap. Boyles have changed their line to Leinster +1 now but they stupidly haven't changed their prices on the alternative handicap markets. A bit of an arbing opp as they have Leinster -3 at 2.68 in their alternative handicap market and you could probably lay Leinster -2.5 for 2.1.

This will be a close game with the lead changing through points kicking but Leinster should click by the second half. Importantly watching Cardiff last night it could be a pointer that the Welsh teams aren't the freshest and don't have a full game in them. Leinster in the mean time have played A game and their fringe internationals played an A game too.

Recommendation: Halftime/Fulltime - Scarlets/Leinster @ 7.0 for 0.5pts Lost. Leinster to win @2.0 for 1.5 points Won.

Current Profit: €855 or 8.55pts with a 9.4% ROI

For more Magners league betting recommendations click here

6 Nations Round 2 Rugby Betting Tip and Team News

2009-02-10T19:36:00.005Z

Wales v England 6 Nations Team News and Betting

I sat down on Monday and thought to myself, what price was a I willing to back Wales against England after their respective performances last weekend. I thought Wales -12.5 was about what I expected to be stuck up on the board and I would probably still back them at that for a point or two.

Low and behold a few hours later, two bookies had Wales at -8 and a few others at -9. I jumped for joy. English bookies have over inflated opinions of their egg chasers, clearly seen before last Autumn with the NZ game, where the handicap line was less than 20. I was expecting more of an over reaction from their terrible performance last weekend so starting off at -8pt was just very surprising.

The fact is these English players don't have direction, ability and a chance against a strong attacking Welsh side. England were listless at the weekend and Bergamasco was their man of the match as he created everything for them. They are aimless with the forward play and seem obsessed to keep running up the 1st channel even when it isn't working. Against Italy's blitz defence all they tried was picking and driving around the fringes. Sure Ellis made a few decent breaks but that was because of Italian turnovers and a scrum half disaster in blue. Last week England rucked and drove 25% of their ball while Wales did barely 10% but handled Scotland's attempts when they opted for that. England are extremely limited in their ability with ball in hand. Click on the link for English game betting review of their last game, makes so good points on how England haven't progressed since the Autumn.

Wales have a few injury concerns with Henson, Williams, Ryan Jones but even still if they play their high intensity game the English may just simply collapse. Goode did a job last weekend but with relentless Welsh running and offloading his kicking game is limited especially against a team who can counter. Looking at last weekends stats England kicked 24% of all possession at Twickenham whilst Wales playing away kicked only 10%. If England keep doing this they are only going to play to Wales strengths.

The Welsh's biggest victory over England is 25-0 only 104 years ago! With the average points scored in this tie at 24. The only history I'll really be looking at this game is the coaching record for each of the management teams. That speaks volumes and can clearly tells the future.

Oh and Wales are at home as well, -9 for the Champions is crazy.

Recommendation:- Wales -9pts for 3 points

6 Nations Rugby Betting 1st Round Team News and Tips

2009-02-06T22:17:00.006Z

Well just back from Donnybrook and lets just say I'm not a happy punter. England are a bunch of fairies and if their 'A' team are anything to go by they can't put up a fight.

England v Italy Betting

Right, Johnson has gone back to square one, if in doubt, call your in mates. What Goode is doing in this team is unbelievable, on step forward seven back. Sure Cipirani has played poorly since returning from injury but come on, Goode when playing good is only average on an international stage. England and their management don't have a clue what they want to do. Come to think of it they do, damage limitation.

Italy meanwhile have thrown a few selection Hail Mary's out there with Mauro Bergomasco at scrum half. Also they've another new 10. However they start the 6 nations well and almost beat Ireland last year in Croke Park.

This game won't be pretty and Italy have the forwards to dominate a pathetic English pack, however Italy are very unlikely to convert any chances they get with ball in hand. I expect England to win, but not by much. If you were lucky to get the +18pt on Italy some bookies were offering well done. I'm still confident on the +15pts.

Recommendation: Italy +15pts @2.0 for 1pt Lost and England for the wooden spoon @17.0 for 0.5pts.

Ireland v France

I think for this game we must have two of the most polar styled coaches you could have ever have. Eddie O'Sullivan on one side, oh sorry I mean Declan Kidney (Diet Eddie) up against Marc Leave me alone I'll do it my way.

Both these teams had a lack lustre Autumn Internationals. Sure Ireland got their placing but they beat two poor teams, Argentina are nothing without Contepomi and Hernandez. Importantly Ireland did not look like improving while France tried to go back to Laporte-esque boring tactics against the bigger teams on tour. Lievremont has realised the error of his ways and all this week has talked about and selected a team that will go out to play. Ireland have selected their best squad however are they going to improve enough from the Autumn internationals to beat a team that has beaten them the last seven times they have met? I'm not convinced, the French see Ireland as given for a win at this stage and will try and run at them/us.

The key in this game is which of these teams can improve the most this season, I'm gutted to say it but it is going to be very hard for Kidney to improve this squad in a manner to win a 6 nations. We've got the same players in the same key positions for the past few years and they haven't done it, why should it change now? Lievremont on the other hand has sent out all the right signals that they are going to go for it, play high risk rugby and try and win. What team played high risk rugby last year and won, Wales, while France finished joint second on points difference playing a crazy experimental team the whole way through.

My heart will be cheering on Ireland and I hope I get this call wrong but I feel that it is just going to be same old Ireland again. We've let ourselves get optimistic again because the provinces are doing ok, but we've been here before. The fact is our forwards will match if not beat France's but Leinster's backs are stuttering and we've got the same backs coach Ireland at the moment. They just don't have the skills to break lines and score tries. If they selected Humphries Og, Wallace and Cave we could open up teams by running from deep.

For a team that has beaten Ireland 7 out of 7 in previous meetings a price of 2.54 is juicy to take up.

Recommendation: France to win @ 2..54 for 1.5pts on Betfair Lost

Current Profit: 11.45pts or 14.05% return on investment.

Even against a poor opposition could you imagine Ireland opening a team like this?

Ireland A vs. English Saxons Betting Pics

2009-02-06T10:35:00.005Z

Rugby Ken's Magners League and Heineken Cup Betting

Ireland A team vs. English Saxons

Looking at the Irish and English A sides I ask myself, "are these teams 6 times worse than their respective full International squads"? Well if I want to go watch Ireland play France on Saturday I'll pay six times the €15 I'm going to pay to watch this match tonight. So at least I've found some value on rugby this weekend!

Some would actually argue that the Saxons players should really be on the first side as Johnson reverts to type and goes old school with his full side. I don't blame him for sticking Sir Charge Down Ciprani in this squad as he needs game time and to restore his confidence. However he won't do it in this game, this won't be a classic.

Co-incidentally Ireland have another low on confidence no.10 starting as well, Johnny Sexton. Their backline is looking strong enough around the edges but would not match the English centres and wingers. However their defensive abilities are strong with Trimble and Duffy showing some good experience and Sexton's kicking game is actually quite good. The Irish centre partnership is slightly worrying due to its lack of expierence however this will be a forwards dominated game. I really think that the Irish pack are superior compared to England's with a good blend of youth and expierence. Jennings and Best will love any opportunity they get to 'front up' and even if the front row is a little weak, I think our back row can easily beat their all Harlequinns back row.

What will impact the most on this game is the weather, see photo from 8am this morning. Just for you I cycled past Donnybrook at 8pm last night (Thursday) and walked into the grounds to have a look. It was still covered in about 5cm (a couple of inches for you Saxons) of snow and was very mucky and slushy. Today will be no classic of a game and England's advantage in the backs will be nullified because of the heavy feet conditions, you wouldn't be able to side step a corner flag. Also I had a look at the Schools Cup fixtures and league fixtures and there have been 3 games played in Donnybrook in the last 7 days. It's been raining or snowing heavily in Dublin since Saturday so we've had at least two games played in poor conditions. This pitch has to be cut up.

So free flowing rugby it probably won't be and to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if it was called off. It won't be raining during the game but it will be a tough match to score tries in so you have got to be looking at a low scoring game.

Recommendation: Total Match Points, under 37.5pts @ 2.0 for 2pts on Betfair or 2.0 under 37pts with Bet365.

For more comments and recommendations from other blogs click here

Heineken Cup Tips & Betting Round 5

2009-01-16T17:37:00.006Z

Current Profit (after commission): 1395.08 or 13.95 pts. 17.68% ROI.

Well I'll keep this short (if that is possible) as I'm over following the boys in blue. Some fantastic games to watch this weekend but tight enough on the betting.

London Irish v Connacht

Bradley has been targeting games very successfully and his team have only got better at it as the season has gone. However they are still poor away from home and the twelve changes he has made to the team that played Scarlets at home shows he is willing to have damage limitation and focus on getting points against Dax next weekend.

London Irish have a strong team out featuring 12 internationals and experienced Mike Catt at 10. Connacht have capitulated against good attacking side and their defence opens up. London Irish (unlike Leinster last time) are a very attacking team and we should see them wrap this game up early.

Recommendation: London Irish -23.5pt @1.9 for 1.5pts on Betfair Won.

Its a pity Connacht won't be sending over there best player

Munster v Sale

Sale are going into this game after beating London Irish last week and winning like they were trying to play some ball. Munster last week were pretty horrible in the first 30mins and looked all over the place but then they turned it on against Ospreys and got an impressive away win. Granted it was a second choice front row but they dominated the scrum, break and POC played amazing.

I think the price is too short on the 1.34 for a home win. But Munster halftime/fulltime looks great at 1.7. They'll bring their A game, control it nicely picking up points and make Sale play which few Premiership teams can under severe pressure. I've just rung a friend who is outside the ground and the predicted rain has not appeared and doesn't look like its going to. I was looking at the unders on two fronts, bad weather and the intensity slowing down the game. Since the weather has gone against us, I'm shying away from the unders. There could be a few over zealous penalty offences. See video:-

Recommendation: Munster/Munster halftime/fulltime @ 1.7 on Betfair for 2points Won.

More opinions, click here

Magners League 09/1 & 10/1

2009-01-09T17:05:00.010Z

Well it was an interesting Christmas season with some big upsets and unfortunately the biggest upset for me in terms of betting. This week we look to make it back.

Leinster v Cardiff

Weather Update:- Quite windy all day, will make kicking difficult. Favours the unders

Last game for the weekend, seeing Leinster trying to catch up in the table. Even though they didn't play amazing last week, the game was destroyed by some terrible referring with needless penalties against Leinster and then some missing of forward passes to let Leinster in with their last try. Cardiff, last week are not in great form. Losing at home to the stuttering Ospreys who just can't find true ability. They aren't scoring many tries, none last week and only four in their last four games. Two were against the Dragons who leak tries.

Leinster drew against Cardiff after coming from behind at the start of the season and won the same fixture at the same time last year by seven points. Cardiff haven't kicked on this year and are missing Ben Blair the main kicking threat. Cardiff haven't got great results before Heineken Cup games losing badly to Glasgow before their big game against Biaritz. They have a massive game away to second in their group Gloucester next week and I just think there mind will be on that. True Leinster have a big game too, but they are at home and need to stick in a performance. Cardiff have three first choice players returning from injury itching for time on the pitch and I think that this could be just a little bit of run out for them. Dai Young has targeted games all season to good success and I think he may expect this game for sharpness and preparation for next week. Cheika is hampered by suspensions but to be honest O'Brien coming in for Jennings is going to be one of Leinster and Ireland's future big players. Blaney has plenty of experience. The pack does look better.

Interestingly in the betting PP's and Stanleys have the handicap at +6 while its +8 elsewhere. I think Leinster might not get a bonus point victory but could get to their 28 point average at home this season. The Blues have only got big scores against defensively weak teams, which has been Leinster's one shining light this season. They've got a stronger pack and first choice backline, barring my obvious favouritism for Leinster I think PP's have got it wrong today. I'm only 2km's from the ground at it is windy and might have showers, this could effect the game in breaking any overs.

Recommendation: Leinster - 6pts (on PP's) for 2pts @1.91, (Wait till you see pics of the game or email me) total points back the under's 39.5 @2.0 (Betfair) or 38pts for 2.1 on Bill Hill for 1pt.

Connacht v Scarlets

Connacht are on the up, they've beaten both Munster and Leinster at home this season and put in another respectable performance in the RDS last weekend. Scarlets last week started amazing, were 10 points up after 10 mins and after a knock on for a certain try they gave up and collapsed and could barely hold off a Dragons fightback.

Connacht are playing well but not scoring tries. They scored one try in three Magners league games. They've been scoring from packs who give away penalties. Scarlets have only given away 5 kicked penalties in the last 3 games. Watching them last week, they don't attempt to counter ruck, throw men on the floor or basically break the rules. This is where Connacht are scoring from. Scarlets are also missing their best point scoring player from last week Jones (on the Bench) and Mark Jones, one of the best backs so it might be hard for them to score tries.

I think it will be hard for Connacht after 3 tough games in a row, however they have been rotating players for their home games and have almost a full strength back line for what should be an excellent defence.

Recommendation:- Back the unders 36.5pts @2.0 for 1.5pts on Betfair or Bet365 Won

Edinburgh v Ulster

Ulster played brilliantly last week and showed that if you run and play attacking ball against Munster at the moment you'll get the points. Edinburgh played pretty poor last week and were lucky to score a early freak try and the final score flattered them.

Edinburgh go into this game with three players starting their first game and a further three changes from last week. Missing Nick De Luca and Pattison really effects their ability to run with speed, losing Ross Rennie for the season doesn't help either. Ulster have to make 4 changes from their super performance however one is captain Best coming back in for Brady, McCrea starting who played brilliant last week and Pollock who replaced Dawson in that game and is pushing for Ireland call up.

Ulster did beat a weakened Munster last week but it was in one of the hardest places to go and win and boy did they do it in style. Murrayfield is probably the polar opposite in terms of atmosphere to Thomand but but equally hard to win at. If and it is a sizable if, Ulster can play to the level they did last week this should be an easy game for them. To be honest to see any team with a +4.5 handicap going to play Edinburgh after beating Munster away by twenty six points the previous week is strange. If this becomes an open game I definitely think Ulster can win. The negative against them is they are a young team and young teams can be brilliant, but inconsistent. I think Williams's boys could continue their form, but if they don't I still can't see Edinburgh running riot.

Recommendation: Ulster -7.5pts @ 5.5 for 0.5pts Lost, Ulster + 4.5 @2.1 for 1pt Won

Ospreys v Munster

Brief on this one. You've got two teams going into big games next week and Munster often don't perform in the league before a big H-Cup game. They are missing three of their most important backs for this season, ROG, Topoki (last time the played well was with him fit) and Earls. They are reinforced with Paul O'Connell, Wallace and Leamy in the pack but the two of them are far from match sharp. Apparently a bug has been going around the team too. Ospreys are far from full strength as well, but still have a strong enough backline and strong home form going with them.

Last time Ospreys lost at home was back in Nov 2007 and the last 8 encounters by the sides have gone to the home team. With the H-Cup looming and weakened teams this is a tough to call, but Munster have not been playing well lately but will at some stage come good, a small bet on Ospreys could prove value.

Recommendation: Ospreys Halftime/Fulltime @2.52 for 0.5pt. Lost

Irish Rugby Provincial Festive Season Review

2009-01-03T22:15:00.009Z

Current Profit: €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

So how was it for you?

Well it was a pleasantly entertaining festive period of Irish rugby with some great battles and an epic victory by Ulster to finish it off. So how are each of the provinces doing after the festive action and first half of the season?

Ulster: "I don't talk to referees. It's like complaining to your mother-in-law about your wife. It doesn't get you too far." - Matt Williams after defeat to Harlequins.

I always liked Williams, Leinster played some of their best rugby under him and he seems to be one of the good guys who sticks to viewpoints and beliefs. When he arrived he had to shovel a lot of shit out the door and he let his younger players play. They made a lot of mistakes up until November but they kept trying to play and now its paying off, with a double over Munster. Against Leinster they were player a tougher defensive team and errors cost them badly. They are an improving side and expect plenty of their players to push into the Irish team.

Cheeky punt: If they continue their progression at the speed they are a cheeky punt on them to win the league as they effectively have nothing left to play for is worth a trade. Currently best price 100/1 on Stan James and bet direct.
Player to watch: Ian Humphries, should be 1st choice Ireland player, offers so much more than the ageing predictable incumbent.

Leinster: "A lot done, more to do"

Being a Leinster follower its hard to know what to think, they blew bonus points and a victory away to Castre but go out and beat two teams relatively comfortably who beat Munster. There is no doubt about it, they are playing poor but they are winning against what seem to be form teams in Magners league. As for the H-Cup they are coming up against another Wasps team that might just be starting a comeback. I watched them two or three weeks ago and thought an Italian team would beat Wasps in Twickenham, I don't think they can improve too much, but the home game against Quinns tomorrow (4/1/08) will tell. With Cardiff this weekend I think they might start to click with hopefully BOD, Cullen and a rested Van Der Linde back in action. Remember their ten Isa, has only started three games for Leinster at that position.

Cheeky punt: The 5/1 available on one exchange for Leinster to win Magners is ridiculous, definitely a worth punt, especially if H-Cup campaign goes badly.
Player to watch: Sean O'Brien, already putting pressure on Jennings and forcing himself onto the team and Kearney playing FB now was immense against Connacht.

Connacht: "We'll fight them on the beaches....."

I said at the start of the year I expected them to perform better with the influx of quality young players. They have stuttered but this Christmas could be a coming of age for the province. Strangely the credit crunch could help them as players of the same ilk or position of Duffy, Frank Murphy and Johnny O'Connor, might find the lure of the euro or redundancy from other clubs an incentive to head way out west. They beat Munster with some excellent kicking and kept it very competitive against Leinster when some decision went against them. What they really need to do now is have a good run in the Challenge Cup and avoid bottom of the league.

Cheeky punt: I said at the start of the season, back Connacht to win every home game. If you did so you'd be a wealthy man with Leinster and Munster being 1.1 and 1.12 shots over turned this season.
Player to watch: Its obvious to say Keatley but I think the consistency of Frank Murphy is really helping them stay in games. With Reddan off form he could get a call up for 6 nations.

Munster: "Everyone wants to beat us because were Champions, Alex Ferguson".

Unfortunately Alex is right and everyone raises their game to Munster. They are going through a poor run since before Christmas, winning only one in their last 4 and the last two games have been a disaster. That said they have not had full strength squads. However with Topoki and O'Gara looking likely to be out for a few weeks things aren't getting any better. Their style of play seems to be their problem. They are trying to push it, not control it, not the Munster way. Sure Howlett, Topoki and Warwick come from a culture of attacking offloading, POC, Buckley, D. Ryan, Hurley, Dowling, O'Gara don't. They have committed more errors in the last two games than probably the whole of the second half of last season. Amazingly before Christmas they were matched at 1.63 to win Magners league, crazy stuff. Their squad depth is weak and they aren't playing well and aren't winning. Of course they'll come back but the Magners league could take a back seat. With a tough game against Sale in two weeks laying Munster might become a interesting tactic.

Cheeky punt: Lay Munster to win H-Cup they'll probably get through to next round but could have a tough draw if they don't beat Sale which because of injuries could be tough.
Player to watch: All eyes have to be on Warwick if O'Gara is out. He is class player who can break the game line, but they won't achieve much if you've got Barry Murphy and Lewis following him.

Happy punting in the New Year.

New Years Fixtures 31st - Jan 3rd

2008-12-30T14:48:00.010Z

Cardiff vs Ospreys (Hairspreys)

When these two teams met at the beginning of the season, Cardiff were playing their 2nd game in four or five days and had a complete 2nd string squad out and lost by 40pts plus. In recent games the Hairspreys have flattered to deceive and haven't lived up to their hype but could be about to turn. They haven't been putting big scores against any decent sides, as was show by them not making the handicap against Scarlets at home.

Cardiff themselves are a solid team, with scoring ability when they have the power up front and with their strongest backline can score points. Cardiff have been rotating players in the past week for this game which they no doubt want to target as interest. Nicky Robinson is back in at 10, with Sweeney going to the bench. The Ospreys have dropped James Hook, who to be honest missed a few kicks last week and doesn't look in great form. Also Henson has been moved to 15 to accomadate his power running and Lee Byrne is in at wing.

Its going to be a tough game to call with, Cardiff on a 3.5pt handicap. I would say they'll probably make it however if the Ospreys can click (which they didn't last week but were close) could win and they look an attractive price. Interestingly looking at the scoring potential of both these teams, Cardiff on average over the last 6 games have scored 29 pts per game (against some good defensive sides), while Ospreys have scored on average 16points per game away from home (scoring points against good home opposition, Edinburgh & London Irish. With Welsh rugby all about attacking open play, if you combine those figures you get 45points, from averages would state that the overs look good. Last years game saw a scoreline total of 32 points however it was the first game of the season and Ospreys were missing their internationals. Two years ago at the same time of year its was a 54 points game.

Recommendation: Over 40.5pts @2.1 for 2 pts Lost& Ospreys to win @2.4 for 0.5pts. Won

Scarlets v Dragons

The Dragons have been a significantly better team this season then last year and have taken some big scalps (beating Ospreys two weeks ago) and keeping scores respectable (considering their whipping boy status last year). However I think that they are effectively about to hit a bad run of form, not in games lost (they've only won two since October) but in points difference, they are due a bad beat.

Scarlets on the other side have had an average to poor season and it took them three games to get a win in their new season but now I think they might have turned a corner, they are getting results and confidence. They only conceded a late try to the Ospreys last week to lose 20-6 (and they beat the handicap of 18.5, predicted here) and the previous week they played well against a slightly weakened Cardiff and had a comfortable 14 points win . They have three internationals back for this game with Stephen Jones (his boot is worth at least 9 points) coming back after a rest and I think they could find form to get a score against the Dragons. I can't get over how the handicap is only 9 points with some bookies (7pts early doors with StanJ) when they beat Cardiff two weeks ago easily. I think it should be 13-14. Dragons concede points away from home and lose, this handicap is too short.

Recommendation:- Scarlets to win - 7pts @1.91 (on Stanjames) for 3 points @ 1.91 Lost & Scarlets -14pts @2.75 (Paddy Power) for 1 point Lost.

Leinster v Connacht

Connacht come into this game on the back of another fantastic home win against Munster where they showed some great grit and excellent desire to keep a sloppy Munster from gaining any momentum. However today they are missing some key players from last weeks game, Cronin their 1 st choice prop and Irish international Gavin Duffy. For a squad as thread bare as this, it is hard to handle.

Leinster meanwhile have selected the best squad available (late fitness test on a stuttering B O'D), with Isa in at 10 which makes a big difference in terms of running and attacking ability compared to Sexton. He could possibly open up an inexpierenced 10 & centre partnership in Connacht. Also Kearney is in at full back adding more attacking and kicking ability than Dempsey.

Connacht have a good habit of playing well against their provinical brethren, however they also have a habit of playing out of their skin one week and then disastriously the next. Also if the team they meet after a good game is attacking and strong running it turns out a disaster (see London Irish and Ulster result). I don't think Leinster are as go forward or attacking as those however they'll take their chances. The handicap in this game is Leinster -20.5 on Betfair which I think is just about right, Boyles and Paddy's offering -19 @ 1.8 which is probably worth a small punt. However considering Leinster are so strong defensively this year I don't think they'll leak many tries so it could just be a four try bonus point game for them. I can't see Leinster racking up 6-7 tries for a 40 point score, or Connacht getting a sneaky try or two.

Recommendation:- Leinster -19pts for 1pt on Paddy power Lost@1.8 & Under 45.5pts on Betfair for 1pt @ 1.95 Won

Current Profit:- €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

Festive Season Bets Games - St. Stephen's Day-28th

2008-12-26T11:12:00.006Z

Alright, we are back in action for the final few games in the Magner's league this season.

Dragon's vs. Cardiff -

The weaker teams in the Magners League have been improving all season as can be seen by Glasgow lying third and Dragon's beating Osprey's at home last week. I watched the second half of this game last week and the one thing that really impressed me was the never say die attitude of Dragon's and how they were able to put it up to their hair gelled Welsh cousins. This game is another massive grudge match and I think Dragon's are best equipped to take the battle to a tough yet uninspiring Cardiff team.

The Blues haven't won away from home since last May and they've only beaten the Dragons from their last 8 matches against Welsh teams. Unfortunately for the Dragon's they have only won one in the last six games against the Blues. However they really have turned a corner and improved their defence this season. It will be a tough game but I think that Dragons will be able to cross the line easier than Cardiff and should take a big scalp.

Recommendation:- Dragons +3.5pts for 2pts @1.95 Won

Osprey's vs Scarlets

It is a little surprising to see such a big handicap (17.5pts) in this game. There is no doubt that the Osprey's are a quality side and when you see the backline they are putting out tomorrow it looks pure international class. However that international form has not fallen into the Osprey's league form. The Ospreys have lost three of their last four in the league, but have won their last six at the Liberty Stadium in all competitions. If you ignore the H-Cup matches against whipping boys Treviso, they have only once come close to a 18 point victory, beating Worcester at home in the EDF by 15, since beating a shocking Ulster 43-0 in September.

Scarlets have been poor all season however they haven't been shipping massive defeats, the worst being away to Stade in H-Cup game. This is a derby and after winning last week against a weakened Cardiff they still won and are on a bit of revival.

I find it hard to believe that the Osprey's will suddenly be able to flick on a switch and beat a team like Scarlets by 18 points, who even if they are playing bad, always keep the score competitive and Jones will always take his penalties.

Recommendation:- Scarlets +17.5pts for 2 points @ 2.1, Won Scarlets +7.5pts for 0.5pts @ 3.75 Loss

Currently in Profit: €1642 or 27.83% return on investment.

H-Cup Round 3

2008-12-04T16:31:00.006Z

The H-Cup is back after a really busy month of rugby, I don't know what it is about December rugby but I just love it in the build up for Christmas. Lets hope we can pick out a few bets to help stuff Santa's sack ;)

Ulster v Scarlets

Scarlets may have lost the Llanelli in their name, If I were one of their fans I'd be more concerned with the fact they they've lost the ablity to win. They've won just one game in the last five and that was in the EDF. Granted last week against Munster they were missing four of their front liners however Munster never play well after Autumn and before a H-Cup round. Thier away form has been poor all season only getting victorys against Ulster (who were shocking at the start of the season) and Dragons in early October.

Ulster meanwhile are kicking on strong as Matt Williams's side finally seem to be playing a full 80mins with a tough defence and strong straight line runners. They've lost Nagusa this weekend however they've got Danelli and Trimble back from injury. More importantly, Humph's Jr. showed a text book kicking display last week missing only one from about 7. With his boot on fire and Scarlets stuttering and seemingly finding it hard to get tries Ulster look to be better prepared, fresh and on form.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts @2.05 for 2pts. Won

Edinburgh v London Wasps

I've always been sceptical of Wasps ability and they really haven't clicked at all this season and have been very hit and miss. They are going to have plenty of internationals returning this week, but after England's display in November you can't say any of them are on form. Meanwhile, Scotland travel the safe road and some individuals are improving and Edinburghs team is as well. They are practically full strength tomorrow.

More importantly Edinburgh got an excellent away win to Castre (which effectively ended their interest in this years H-Cup) after being on the receiving end of a bad defeat to Leinster. Barring that Leinster win, which was a case of 4/5 errors in 20 mins but an overall solid performance, I think Edinburgh will have the beating of Wasps. They have an excellent home record and considering Wasps away record is mixed of late to full strength squads I think the evens on offer for Edinburgh is excellent. Especially if some bookies have them down at -2.5pts.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh to win @2.0 for 1.5pts. Lost

Clermont v Munster

Just looking at the game coming up.

Munster are way under priced for this game. They got a bonus point from a last minute try after Clermont gave up after getting three tries in the first half in this game last year.

Clermont have been erratic away from home but have shown up and performed each big home game. Beating Toulouse and Stade. At 1.8 to win at home against Munster who haven't played together properly for 6 (they rested some players last week) weeks it appears a steal. Munster are missing Tipoki which is big because Barry Murphy isn't the greatest in defence.

The handicap of -4.5 is nice as well but I'm happy to take the match odds and that price.

Recommendation:- Clermont to win @1.8 for 2pts.Won

Currently in profit: €1312.08 (13.12pts) and a 24.07% ROI

Magner's w/c 28/11/08

2008-11-28T17:49:00.008Z

Right close to kick off I'm afraid.

Only one stand out bet this friday night.

Ulster v Connacht:

While Bradley's side have for the first time stuck out a 1st string squad in an away game, they still have a terrible habit of conceding away from home, over 100 points in last two away games.

Ulster are on up. After a convincing 20-6 win against Munster (and it could have been more) before the break they looked like clicking. Their Islander winger could really be a great buy and speedster sides can tear apart Connacht (see the London Irish game) with Nagusa and McCrea possessing plenty of pace, Connacht could be in for trouble. Also Ulster only have league to play for and this is a 6pointer in terms of European qualification.

I'm going for Ulster in the handicap. They went into the break with better form but also looked at a turning point. Crucially they have had a friendly game during the break while Connacht's was cancelled.

Recommendation:- Ulster -13.5pts for 3pts at evens won & Ulster - 26.5pts for 0.5pts @ 4.2 won, all on Betfair of course!

Scarlets v Munster

This is too close to call. While the 2nd string Munster side showed great passion against the AB's, they don't play well after the November breaks when the 1st string return. This was the case in '06 and '05 season (07 doesn't count because no break as Nov internationals didn't happen).

If they had a were closer to zero I'd go for them as Scarlets are missing five first teamers as Wales are playing tomorrow.

If you are dying for a bet, I'd go for under's just on the hunch both teams are focused more on next weeks game.

Leinster v Dragons

Leinster go into this game with plenty of injuries (10 in fact) key ones being Van Der Linde, Contepomi, Cullen. Dragons have a few injuries but have a solid in uninspiring back line who last time played together held Bath to 13-9 in the H-Cup. However their last game was 27 days ago.

Crucially as was seen last night, friendlies during the Autumn break is key, one major advantage in the fact that are Leinster 'A' players replacing the injured front liners are those that have played 2 games in the last two weeks. Players like O'Brien, Healy and even some of the first 15 who weren't on the International squad have been ticking over with 3 Leinster 'A' games. McFadden who starts at centre appearently greatly impressing in those games. He looked very promising last year but got a bad knee injury and never got a chance by the time he returned.

While I don't expect a 30-40 point victory, like the last time Dragons were here, if you look at all the other Welsh teams last night they were clearly rusty. Dragons aren't as bad as last year but with almost 4 weeks without a competitive game I don't think they'll be fully up for this Munster win game for Leinster.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 18.5pts for 1.5pts @2.1 on Betfair. LostIf you have a Bet365 account take advantage of the 1.71 on offer for the second half being the highest scoring half for 1pt lost.

Currently profit: €1110.58 (11.1058 pts) and a 22.66% ROI

Back to the Future, again.

2008-10-30T11:21:00.006Z

After an expected but unspectacular win against Canada Ireland now go into this Saturday’s game with New Zealand needing to show true form. But why are experts surprised with his omissions of Kearney, O’Kelly, Reddan and promising Earls for the starting 15 against the Kiwi’s?

When Kidney signed on the dotted line for Ireland many were excited by this hugely successful coach taking on the Irish mantle. After adding plenty of international experience to his coaching panel the Irish public were guilty of going into this Autumn campaign expecting a new brush and some impressive scalps. In late October we saw a massive panel selected for the training camp, no surprises there. However with the new guns, Earls, Fitzgerald centre in flying out of the blocks this season then why are we and the analysts surprised with a tried a tested team name for this Saturday’s game?

Has everyone forgotten who we hired? Kidney, is first and foremost a man who built a conservative yet winning nature down in Munster. Be it the weather in Limerick or a belief in a system, we only once in his career saw and expansive game and that was because of his Kiwi signings last year. To be honest I thought this new expansive nature was completely overplayed, as highlighted in the snooze fest last 30mins his final game in charge in Cardiff last season. Do people not remember the ill-fated year at Leinster when he had O’Driscoll, Horgan, Hickie, Contepomi, Dempsey and Darcy at his exposal? Let’s just say they didn’t ignite any fires that season. Last season at Munster we saw both David Wallace and Denis Leamy play first centre for a game and remember when hardly any back scored a try for nearly the first quarter of the season following their first Heineken Cup win?

Why are there question marks over Fitzgerald and Earls not being in first centre when they both don’t have 5 games between them this year in that position? Kidney wants bashers and aggressive players or even no. 7’s there. Having radio and newspaper analysts screaming for these selections and their bewilderment of them not being there is just stupid. Come on lads, its your job to analyse and clearly you have not analysed the man that is Kidney enough. How can you question why Dempsey is starting at fullback, sure Kearny had a great tour last winter but isn’t starting in that position for his club. I’m sure Geordan Murphy is running past journey-men tackles in the Premiership but remember with ‘Konservative with a capital K, Kidney’, he see the truth that Dempsey is the consummate error-free option. His toughest selection at scrum half is not as hard as everyone thinks. Why should we be surprised Stringer isn’t starting, remember he dropped him last season. When it comes to Reddan v O’Leary, remember Kidney goes with what he knows and that is an ex-hurler from Cork not a player he didn’t stop moving to Wasps from Munster.

There is no doubt he is a winning coach and like most coaches they have a formulae, but why did we think Kidney would push the boat out? Remember all of this Autumn series is like a cup final for a ranking points. Maybe because we (or more particularly the pundits) became so expectant under Steady Eddie O’Sullivan and expected a bright new expansive hope in Kidney. All I have to say to those expecting adventurous new era of Irish rugby is, “come on did you not watch Munster play for the last few years, or did you fall asleep watching”?

Team for NZ: Horan, Flannery, Hayes, O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Quinlan, Wallace, Jennings, O'Leary, O'Gara, Trimble, O'Driscoll, Bowe, Horgan, Dempsey.

Magners League Weekend 24/10/08

2008-10-23T18:55:00.008+01:00

Well its back to the Cider league after watching some of the Irish provinces guzzling in high quality in the larger cup.

The Braveheart's v Leinster

All the talk this week from Leinster camp has seen Cheika has been very pragmatic, pointing out that Leinster lose these games around this time of year and they can't let it happen again. Leinster are going in on excellent Heineken cup form however their Managers league form shows them as losing their last two games. However you would have to go back a long way to find out when Leinster lost three Magners league games in row. The important note from the last two games is that they are creating and taking their chances, something which didn't happen against Munster and Connacht.

Glasgow have been completely erratic this season, shipping just under an average of 20 points each game, but seem capable of scoring on occasions. Having any chinks in your defence is not ideal going against the Leinster backline. Even if Glasgow perform to their best the Leinster defence has still only shipped 5 tries in four games. Leinster are without O'Driscoll and gentle giany O'Kelly, but are replaced with Johnny 'Contraception' Sexton and the inform Devin 'High Tower' Toner. I was surprised with the conservative handicap of just two penalties or 6pts. If Leinster come out all guns blazing it could be 10-12 points victory.

Recommendation: Leinster -5.5pts @2.0 for 2pts Lost

Connacht v Edinburgh

Heading way out way west for an earlier kick off at the aptly named Sportsground where we'll see Connacht v Edinburgh. Connacht played two excellent games in a row up until their loss last week convincingly against London Irish. Connacht have always had a problem of form, because just a few injuries can knock them off their stride.

Edinburgh showed last week that they can upset the books and get good wins away from home against Castre. Surprisingly Edinburgh haven't won in Ireland since May 2006, however they have improved since Andy Robinson took over. Even more surprisingly for a Scottish team they do like to throw the ball around but haven't had that many weaker teams to exploit this against of late and I think a tired Connacht could be that team. Connacht have played 4 incredibly tough game in a row.

Connacht, seem to be improving since a terrible start of the season and are trying to play catch up and grab a H-Cup place off the Ulstars. Last week in poor conditions they were exposed by London Irish and if Edinburgh's Simon Webster gets a few chances he'll exploit them. Connacht will put up a brave first half and may be winning but ultimately may not make it past 60 mins.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -3.5pts @1.96 for 1pt on Betfair Won, Halftime/Fulltime - Connacht/Edinburgh 0.5pts @7.0. Lost

Ulster v Munster

Always a heated match and clearly with Leinster losing last night a chance for Munster to really build a big lead at the top of the cider league. Such is the confidence of people in Munster at the moment that they were matched at 1.1 on Betfair to win this game. However this was before the teams were announced they promptly drifted out to 1.5. McGahan has rested pretty much all his front liners and this is a Musnter 'B' team of the highest order, but can a full strength Ulster team put it up to them?

In their last few games their intensity has risen and defensive intensity has been minutely better. They have shipped big points against attacking teams however can this Munster team attack? In their back line they only have one class player at that is Warwick, he'll be key today because of the likely terrible conditions (65mph winds and rain). But looking else where you might have question marks, Hurley (2nd start of the season), Dowling (not creative), Horgan (worst winger in Ireland) and Murphy (still yet to find the form of two years ago). In the pack they have a completely different front five and I just feel they might not have the continuity. Interestingly Munsters worst results this seasonhave been in bad weather, Glasgow and Montabuan. With the weather predicted for tonight, it will most likely be a low scoring encounter. Only the Connacht game last night broke the overs market out 3 games in similar conditions but that is unsuprising as their defence has been attrocious.

Recommendations:- Ulster +5.5pts, 1pt @ 2.0 Won. Total Match points, under 37.5pts for 2 pts @ 1.7 Won

After weekend games current profit is €923.58 for the season so far.

In Kearney We Trust

2008-10-20T23:56:00.000+01:00

Saw this video today and thought it was too funny not to share.

Pint of Ken Cup Round Two

2008-10-16T23:35:00.000+01:00

Heineken Cup - Round Two

This is really the biggest weekend of rugby so far this season for Irish provinces. Throughout the weekend they’ll be up against what should be their biggest rivals and challengers to getting a ticket to the next round. With Munster and Leinster both getting wins last week with questionable performances and Ulster losing comprehensively, all of the provinces need big performances.

Harlequins v Ulstars

Ulstars have had a torrid season with only one narrow win from six so far. After last week’s game Matt (The Face) Williams was happy with the aggression and hits they were making. If I were Matt I would be more concerned with the fact they don’t have a kicker who can get 60% of their attempts, and they’ve continued their terrible away form which had started last season. They can’t seem to build consistency and Williams has been chopping and changing their kicker all season with Schifcofske (out injured for this game), O’Connor and (Where's?)Wallace all taking charge of the kicking tee at some point.

Clearly confidence is an issue for this team, they have conceded on average of 20 points a game (32 points on average for away matches) and only scored an average of 7.5points away from Ravenhill. Against one of the most attacking teams in England it doesn’t bode well for Ulster. The Medicine woman's team came back strongly in the second half away from home against the Pimpernels last week and even with a 13.5 point handicap their attacking ambition will overcome a weak Ulster travelling defence who can’t take any chances that they are given.

Recommendation: – Harlequinns -15.5 for 3pts. Won

Leinster v Wasps

It’s an age old saying but you have to win your home games and if Leinster have ambitions of doing well this year this is a must win game for them. Wasps, although with a stuttering start to their season, put in an impressive three try haul against a mediocre Castre side.

Analysing their performances last week, both scored the majority of their points in the first half and hardly any in the second. This was ok for Leinster as they were away last week but for Wasps they can’t afford to be a one half team on the road. Leinster have only conceded six tries in six games, but do have a tendency to give away penalties. Wasps are the ultimate cup side, winning the Heineken Cup every year they have got out of their group and always perform in the must win games. However since their pack has lost their talisman Dallaglio they may lack their arrogant edge.

Wasps’ defence has been poor away from home shipping on average 23 points each game this season, expect this game to have tries as primtime O’Driscoll is finding form and cool hands Fitzgearld gets another chance in centre, if there is a nice price in the over’s market it would be a good punt.

Recommendation:- Leinster Halftime/Fulltime for 1pt Won, Total Match Points over 40.5pts for 1 pt Won

Sale v Munster

Last week Munster suffered from being expectant and over ambitious while Sale Sharks pulled out possibly the surprise result of round one. Their away victory against Clermont Auvergne, who had previously only lost one home game in thirty nine was impressive considering their limited playing style. It was very surprising considering Sale’s conservative nature of just grinding out results in the Premiership, where they only have a +3 for/against points tally. Crucially in last weekend’s game they never allowed Clermont to get any continuity to their game or build up on any possession. In terms of tactics, this game could be two teams facing each other in the mirror, both with the same game plan. You’d have to fancy the under’s in the match points markets as it will be a slow and patient game.

With Sale facing some selection problems, Andy 'the looks' Sheridan being only 50/50 and also losing Orsby to a citing, they won’t be going into this game full strength. Munster have doubts over Hokey Tipoki who would be a big loss as a game line breaker. It’s a difficult game to call as can be seen by the handicap difference of just 0.5pt. Ultimately last week we saw two polar performances from these teams but Munster have more scope to improve. I expect Munster to go back to their solid percentages games waiting for a break, Sale will do the same but might not have the class to execute them.

Recommendation: - Game points, under 40.5pts for 2 points Lost, Munster to win outright for 1 point Won.
If I were feeling rich and wanted quick bet I'd go for Munster to score the penalty ;)

Connacht v London Irish

Two massive performances in the past two weeks from the elephant in the IRFU board room. Beating Leinster and more impressively Dax away brings belief back to Bradley's men. Behind the scenes though Dax don't care about this competition and it was a very much a second string Leinster side with the off form Sexton playing the crucial number. They are coming against a serious inform team in the form of the exiles who scored 70 points last week and have beaten some of the top teams in the premiership.

Recommendation: - The Exiles - 7.5pt @1.9 for 3 points Won.

W/C 3rd Oct Magners

2008-10-03T19:01:00.000+01:00

Ulster v Edinburgh

Two poor teams going head to head. Ulster should finally break their duck as Edinburgh have a few key injuries especially the ten point a game player Patterson. Edinburgh have won 1 in 9 away in Ireland and even though this is the worst Ulster team in a decade, they can't get any worse and will improve.

Recommendation: Ulster Halftime/Fulltime 1pt @ 2.04

Munster v Glasgow

Glasgow have a surprisingly good record at Thomand beating them a few times in the past few years. Obviously Munster are superior this season and can comfortably make a few changes but don't expect them to fly out of the blocks.

Recommendation: Glasgow/Munster - Halftime/Fulltime .5pt @9.0

Connacht v Leinster

Connacht have been weak this season averaging just 4 points a game. Leinster have made plenty of changes but allowing previous Connacht players games (Keane and Fogarty). The biggest change is bringing in Fitzgearld to 2nd centre. Him in this position is nearly going to guarantee two tries because his turn of pace and side stepping will beat the average Duffy in the opposition.

Recommendation: Leinster -11.5pts for 3pts @1.95 & Leinster -24.5pts for 1pt @ 3.8.

More opinions on this decent site as well

27th & 28th Mangners Leagues Game

2008-09-27T10:49:00.000+01:00

Two games left this weekend and I think they are the more interesting in terms of value and punting.

Osprey's vs. Ulster - Ulster are going into this game still without a win after narrowly losing last week at home. That has to be a confidence crusher and I think the Osprey's are going to really have the upper hand here. Ospreys lost last week with a bonus point to Leinster and played well and they found Leinster's defence too tough, but they had the majority of the possession but just couldn't break Leinster down. At home against Ulster you can't but expect Osprey's to get a similar result as to what they got at the end of last season which was a 27pt victory. Matt Williams has picked a more experienced side than last week with Carlo De Fava and Cunningham coming back in and Trimble moving into centre. I fear they may be trying to shut up shop and make it a forward battle. Osprey's will easily match them here and also expose any weaknesses in the backs. Interestingly they've selected ex-Ulster man Bowe in second centre with Henson coming back from injury and onto the bench. Clearly they'll be looking to expose the lack of pace and tackling ability in the Ulster back line.

Recommendation:- Osprey's -12.5pts, 3pts @1.9 & Osprey's -24.5pts 1.5pts @ 4.1.

Leinster vs Munster

The grudge match with a lot of hype. Never mind the hype the facts are plain to see. Both teams are having their best starts to the league ever. They have had almost identical results with Munster having a win in Edinburgh whilst Leinster drawing with Cardiff on the first day. They are both rotating players very successfully. Leinster's forwards are as strong as they were last year (apart from the front row due to injuries) and Munster are continuing to try and play an expansive game. This is the one area I see a problem, Munster's 'expansive' game stems predominantly from their two kiwi centres and their game breaking ability. Watching them against Cardiff, when they were up against a tough defence these two players become very selfish and run sideways trying to push the play causing turnovers and penalties. I expect this game to be similar to last year, except Leinster have improved massively defensively. This will frustrate Musnter and cause these guys to run sideways as they did against Cardiff last week getting themselves into trouble.

Leinster have beaten Munster 3 times in a row in their last 3 meetings. Leinster have their two new signings starting, however unlike La Roux, CJ Van Der is not a destructive scrummager and may take time to form a partnership with the rest of the front row, in the loose he is a different story, if he runs at Earls it could be a rude awakening to professional rugby for the promising Munster man. Cheika would only pick McCormack in the front row as a last resort and it confirms the belief that Healy is carrying a shoulder injury and Wright is not near full fitness. I expect Munster to dominate in the scrums but watching last weeks game against Cardiff they lost 30% of their own lineouts and didn't win one of the oppositions. Cullen is a lineout champion and expect him to cause O'Connell and O'Callaghan problems all day. Flannery's throwing has been poor for a season now and it would need a massive improvement to allow Munster to dominate their traditional set piece game. Overlooking internationals

Mentality is the last area of interest. Last year's corresponding fixture saw Leamy sin binned, Dowling lose the plot and his head and having a terrible game. Leinster can now play and defend extremely well without the ball and not push the game (sounds like another team????). Contepomi has calmed down and was not 'got at' by Munster. Alot of the newpapers interviews with Munster players are speaking of 'revenge' and getting stuck in. With Cullen, Jennings, Elsom, S. Horgan Leinster posses some very cute players and if I could I would like to have a bet on Mafi and Tipoki both getting yellows. Which ever teams holds their head will get at least 9 points extra from kicks and looking at last weeks game, Leinster gave away two kickables and Munster gave away four and have been consistently penalising themselves in the previous games.

Recommendation:- Leinster to win, 2pts @1.65, Leinster Half Time/Full Time, 1pt at 2.25

Mangers w/c 19th Week 3

2008-09-19T12:03:00.000+01:00

Stuck for time for my explanation

Leinster v Ospreys - Clash of the weekend. On paper Osprey's are Wales, look at the scores they have had against other teams and you'd be worried. They didn't finish a poor Connacht (only scoring one try) and last week just managed to beat Glasgow away. They did hammer Cardiff, however Cardiff had a poor team out, while Ospreys went for points. Their first and second choice scrum halves aren't available either. The handicap of 10.5pts is probably a bit too much, even though Leinster are extremely clinical at the moment, I think Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 1.9 is brilliant value (2pt bet on Betfair)

Connacht v Glasgow - Connacht have been poor. So have the Dragons. Connacht have to win this game or they are fecked. Do or die, but no bet for me.

Ulster v Dragons - Similar to Connacht, Ulster have to win. In last weeks game they weren't securing ball or set pieces. I reckon after three games Mr. Williams will get them right and they are a good bet to beat the handicap. Ulster -11.5pts @1.85 2point bet.

Munster v Cardiff - Munster walkover here. Don't have hanicap yet, if it close to 15pts I'm all over it.

For one point place an accumulator on Leinster to win, Ulster to win, Connacht to win and Munster to win.

Magners League Weekend 12/09/08 Predictions

2008-09-11T21:23:00.001+01:00

Cardiff v Ulster - Playing three games in a week is massive. Although they have rotated players during the week most of the same players have appeared in each game. My belief is that this could effectively impact on recouperation and conditioning of Cardiff. The majority of the Cardiff players are basically playing nearly 190 mins of rugby in 8 days with little recouperation time, they'll have to tire by the second half. Ulster themselves lost badly against the Dragons last week however they are going to be hit and miss team this season. I don't think Ulster will win however when I saw Ulster + 12pts on Paddy Power I couldn't but get excited. If they are to improve this season which I think they can they can it will be to get closer to winning than they did the previous year. Cardiff beat Ulster 30-17 in the same game last May with Cardiff having practically the same team. Cardiff haven't moved on much this season with few signings, this is their third game in week, you'd have to fancy Ulster to make up at least 3 point score difference from last years peformance.

Prediciton - Ulster +12pts, 1 point @1.91 (With Paddy Power).

Leinster v Edinburgh - Leinster played well in the second half against Cardiff and can be slow to start at the beginning of the season. They now have a full squad with serious competition for places. The star of last week Nsawea on the subs bench today showing how confident Cheika is in his backs player selection. Trevor Hogan is back into the second row for Leinster which is an improvement from Devin Toner but most importantly Stan Wright is back in the front row to shore up what was a poor scrum last weekend. Edinburgh however have a few squad inuries. They have few strike runners, with Webster being injured and don't have a quality squad to pick form. Against Munster especially in the first half they were opened up quite easily by the improving Musnters backs.

With Leinster's backs recieving good ball from their pack we could see Edinburgh being opened up very easily. I think it could be close enough till half time, especially with Patterson to take all opportunies from his kicking but what the Munster game didn't show last week was the fact O'Gara missed 3 kicks, two of which were easy. This time last year Leinster beat Edinburgh (minus internationals because of the World Cup) 23-8. In the Heineken Cup last year Leinster somehow managed not to get a bonus point victory in a 28-14 game. Leinster should be stronger since then, are only missing a top class prop and Leo Cullen and have a stronger backline. Edinburgh are the same if not weaker.

Prediction : Leinster -10pts, 2 points @ 1.91 (Boyles are offering this handicap, every one else is minus 12pts. Great value and a nice penalty cushion).

Magners League Weekend 12/09/08

2008-09-11T12:38:00.000+01:00

Some interesting team news:- http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2008/0911/1221039067722.html

Edinburgh ravaged by injuries. If Leinster can have a decent front 5 in place I predict a riot.

10th Sept

2008-09-09T00:30:00.000+01:00

Osprey's v Cardiff - Ospreys -8.5pts max bet, 3 points!

I was surprised how Cardiff slowed in the second half against Leinster. Things going against Cardiff
- One less day recuperation than Osprey's
- They are playing again on Friday and team selection suggests focus on easier points against Ulster, where Cardiff will be at home
- Shanklin and their best forwards out. 10 changes in total

Postives for Ospreys
- Cardiff couldn't handle Leinster backline the three times they got near the line
- Ospreys have four excellent internationals in the backline
- Ospreys have a excellent 6-8 and with new ELV's and tired players this is going to kill Cardiff.

If I was a spread betting man I'd take everything i could...... Dave.

Worries -

Weather, don't bet until you see the picture on the TV or have a mate in Swansea who can tell you. If its going to be reasonably dry, I'd nearly have a punt on the higher handicap margin or spreads. That being said it is a Derby so Cardiff might be able to raise their tempo, however I really think this could be a thumping.

5th Sept Tips

2008-09-05T18:14:00.001+01:00

Tough week with little form to go with so I'm only going to dip my toe in the water with some trading opps and one outright.

I fancy Connacht this season but don't think they can win the game outright but may at some point in second half of the game be in a good position. Same for Edinburgh. Leinster are missing some key forwards and their kicking was shocking last week. Plus they can be slow to start a season.

Connacht v Ospreys - Lay Osprey's @1.4 for 1pt. Set back bet to go inplay at 3.0 for 0.5pt.
Edinburgh v Munster - Lay Munster @1.66 for 1pt and back in play for 2.8 for 0.5pt.
Cardiff v Leinster - Back Cardiff -2.5pts @ 1.9

Hopefully I'll get something right.

Start of the Magners League

2008-09-03T21:20:00.000+01:00

Well the new season of Irish Rugby is upon us.

The Irish teams have been quite successful in the pre-season with Leinster and Munster have clean sweep of victories in the warm ups. Both having strong convincing victories against decent sides, Queensland Reds and USA Eagles respectively. Connacht and Ulster have had mixed results in the reason but some strong performances.

So what can we take from the pre-season and new signings? The word at the start of the season is 'optimism' and some of the teams have reason for it, but they all can't win everything.

Leinster - After finally finding consistency last season, the forward pack dominated the season. They've added quality signings across the pitch however even though they played better and more consistently last year I have my doubts for a strong start. Last season Leinster looked awful at the start. Only Isa Nacewa of the new signings will be there for the first few games. Their second row is still week and Glesson and Ollie Le Roux are gone. So I think they could be slow starters, and certainly would be luck to get a win away to Cardiff. They won their in their second game last season, but it was completely against play and flukey.

Munster - New manager, few signings but still Munster. I think it will be interesting season as to be honest I think they played some weaker teams than the Munster possy would have you believe in the H-Cup. Generally quite slow to start I think Andy Robinsons Edinburgh team will certain push them.

Connacht - These guys will be interesting this season. I really think it could be a break through. Always competitve but missing a killer instinct. The signing and recent performances of young Leinster and Munster players could make their season especially Ian Keatley who could be the next big thing. They've got a opening game at home against Ospreys, however they haven't lost at home in their first game in the Magners leauge season in few seasons. Just really depends which Ospreys team shows up. This season I expect Connacht to win 75% of their home games even taking at least one provincial scalp with them. Considering the odds the other teams will be against them I'd be laying all opposition at the Sportsground this year. There are going to be a few shocks.

Ulster - Well how are these going to do. Come back to me after 3 games. Cleared out a lot of players brought some quality in. I love Matt and he will be great at building up some spirit and clearing out the divide that may have existed in the dressing room last year. I just feel they are lacking a few quality try scorers which will mean away from home they are fooked.

I'll be sticking up bets for this weekends games once the prices are up. What I'm thinking

I will be putting up prices for Connacht game, anything close to 2.5 is good value.

Munster great trading opp in their game, lay at 1.6 to trade out at 2.8 all green.

Leinster no bet probably, if they are shorter than 1.8 definately a lay.

Ulster, have to see the teams.

Good articles to read - http://betting.betfair.com/ie/rugby/irish-rugby-betting-the-four-provinces-update-310808.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2008/0903/1220372026258.html

2008-06-06T20:30:00.000+01:00

The time has come.

I've been banging on about doing this for weeks and finally after a good run I've decided to start making these official. So off we go!

Tips before I published anything online were:

Date	Game	Selection	Price	Result	Profit/Loss	Balance
24/05/2008	Munster v Toulouse	Toulouse	2.25	Loss	-100	-100
27/05/2008	Ire v Ba Ba's	Ireland	3	Win	200	100
27/05/2008	Ire v Ba Ba's	Under 55.5pts	2.2	Win	220	320
01/06/2008	Eng v Ba Ba's	Ba Ba's +9.5pts	2.15	Win	215	535

So I'm up from that, can it continues