I decided to leave the first week of Magners league action alone and just read the reports. Obviously a great result for the Benetton and a solid performance for Treviso against Munster and I was happy Leinster kept it respectable as we aren't fit and disorganised. So I'm hoping that some of the bookies and layers might over react to those games.
Osprey's v Benetton
Of course every Welsh team has high hopes at the start of the season but the Hairsprays have some excellent backup players to add to their International panel now. They lost to Ulster last week by one point but Ulster are the Man City of the Magners league now, spending and paying big with the IRFU's permission. Also Ulster played a lot more friendlies at the start of the season against tougher opposition so they were always going to win this. The Ospreys clicked into gear in the second half to only lose by just a point which was a good sign.
Benetton are the more solid and structured of the Italian teams and are not building from scratch. To put their win in context, Scarlets are shocking away from home, they've only won three times since 2009 away and their team is weaker than last year. For Benetton, I'm of the belief that even though the Magners League isn't anything like the H-Cup for intensity, they are going to find the higher level and away matches harder to be consistent.
Osprey's did play Benetton two years ago in the H-Cup and won away by 20 points and by 60 at home. Whilst Benetton are an improved side now and glowing after their first win I think that they are the team to punish others for mistakes. In Biggar they have a ten who can keep the score board ticking. Ospreys should be looking for a bonus point win and the handicap of 20 looks achievable. The weather doesn't look good for tomorrow which puts me off a spread or higher handicap but I'll take the standard line on.
Recommendation: Ospreys - 2o @1.91 for 2 pts with William Hill.
I'll be studying the Munster game a bit more tomorrow before making a judgement but it looks like Boyles are being a little generous with Edinburgh at -1, most others are -3 or higher. Won't last long.
More previews to follow......
