Do you remember?

.... the complaints when England, Ireland, Wales and France fielded 'under strength' teams on summer tours to the southern hemisphere just a year or two ago?

Well its funny how if you're from down there you can call it 'blooding' and 'future building'. Clearly those S14 boys have better PR skills.

Just a thought.

Autumn International Weekend Review

Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.

Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.

Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.

The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.

Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.

Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.

Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.

Ireland v Australia

More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.

On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.

Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.

I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.

Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.

"And now for something completely different"

As some of you may or may not know I work for Betfair in the marketing department, particularly for horse racing.

Anyway I made my first appearance on a live Timeform Radio show check out my debut performance at about 31mins, click here to download

Magners League Round 7

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).