Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost

Magners League Round 5

Ulster v Scarlets

I'm quite surprised with bookies' line on this one. I think they underestimate Ulster here. Whilst on paper they don't have a great record against Llanelli and haven't enthralled their fans at home their last three games they have been very strong signs of a good team building up. Obviously away to Ospreys they showed some battle and expansive play and then continued this until the final 20 mins of the Edinburgh game at home. Last week they went to Connacht and thoroughly dismissed Connacht, which is something not many teams do at the Sportsground.

The Scarlets luckily have Mr. Stephen Jones back. He automatically adds balance and points to their package however this is his first game back and few returning Lions have flown out of the blocks so far in their first game. Looking at their backline they don't have any stand out line breakers or ability to score tries. Ulster do. With Ferris back as well Ulster want to the monkey off their back and get their first home win this season. I always maintain that the Scarlets can't defence the breakdown and are too slow in this area and Ulster are great counter attackers. Having Wallace back for Ulster also opens up their play and ability.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts at 1.94 for 2 points on Betfair WON and Ulster -16.5points at 6.5 on PP's for 0.5 points WON.

Current Profit: £784.60 or 7.85pts. ROI 34%

Magners League Round 4

Last weekend was emotional, maybe there is something to be learned from it with my bet choice however I thought there was massive value on the Leinster/Leinster only to be robbed by a Scottish ref!

This weekend is slightly more difficult to pick out the winners on Saturday's games. First up though is Friday night's game.

Connacht v Ulster

I had a few quick texts/comments from my loyal Connacht supporter (notice the singular) to gloat. Fair play to them, they turned it upside down and we've seem some short price teams, Cardiff last week at 1.15 and Ospreys at 1.07 against Ulster lose. Now who says the Magners league isn't interesting, however I think this could be back to business as usual for Connacht.

They interestingly have not won two games in a row in the league since Sept 2006. Last year they beat Munster and Leinster at home but lost to Ulster by two points. In fact Ulster haven't lost to Connacht in their last 8 games.

Ulster last week had a blistering opening pace and looked much better than Edinburgh but missed some early chances and kicks. With Paddy Wallace coming back in at certain I think it adds a little more class and better kicking. Ferris is out however Henry is a strong replacement. With powerful runners likes Nagusa and Danelli Connacht will have a tough time defending them. They were slightly lucky that poor kicking from Keatley stopped Connacht from winning last time though. I just feel that Ulster have more to offer and Connacht though competitive for inter-provs haven't improved their side from last year.

If Ulster come out like they did last week they'll put a score up against Ulster however I wouldn't want another verbal-bashing from the singular Connacht fan.

Recommendation - Ulster/Ulster @2.12 for 1 point with Betfair WON.

Glasgow v Osprey's

On paper Osprey's, in reality Glasgow. What is the story with Welsh teams this year? Apart from the Dragons (the Welsh development side????) not one team has a back bone or a bit of class.

I really think this is quite simple, Glasgow are a good side and Ospreys are pants so far. Sure they might turn it on with Williams back but their back line was flat and standing still for the whole game last week. Added to the fact that I'm expecting Scott Johnson to give me a call to go in at front row for next week they have no pack. Glasgow have an excellent front row and if Osprey's finished where they left off last week they'll be hammered up front.

You can still back both teams at evens at the moment but I would price Glasgow as a 1.75 shot to be honest. They have an Evans back and the impression I got from last week was that they were rotating for the Dragons (the number one team in Wales) who beat them comfortably.

Recommendation:- Glasgow to win 2.1 for 2 points with Totesport LOST.

I don't have time to stick up my profit as I'm running to the pub but I'm in profit, honest ;)

Twitter

Apparently this was the new thing 6 months ago.

I'm on it and you can stalk me on there if you're that lonely - http://twitter.com/kendoesrugby/

It's Back - Magners League Round 3

Scarlets v Munster

Munster go into this game with a pretty comfortable win at home against Cardiff, who then showed last night that they really have problems on the road in losing to Connacht. Scarlets who are also bad travellers lost away to Glasgow, who subsequently got royally thumped by the Dragons last night.

Munster are currently 6-0 for the last six meetings between these sides and even though they are weakened by not having their two first choice locks, 7 and favoured 9-10 partnership they are by no means massively depleted. Niall Ronan has stepped up a gear at 7 since leaving Leinster and Manning is playing well at 10 . Luckily this 3 month contract scrum half from NZ actually went to school with Manning over there so at least they know each other and O'Leary is waiting on the bench for a return from injury. There only weakness in the back is Hurley who in my opinion isn't a great player.

Scarlets have one major problem (and plenty of smallers one) and that's the breakdown. With Munster's almost first choice back row available there will be a fierce amount of turnovers and slowing down of play which will stop a very average Scarlets backline from playing. Scarlets in my opinon are side going from bad to worse and seem to be in no mans land with ball in hand.

This is a really interesting game from a punting perspective and some of the bookies have taken different opinions which is always nice to see. You rarely see Munster not being favourites for a game and you should always side with them in that event, especially considering they've beaten these guys 6 from 6. Scarlets beat a completely unfit and under prepared Leinster team at home in the first game and only just after losing in the first half and some dodgy sinbins. Interestingly of the last six games these side have met, they've beaten the current total points spread of 38.5 three times. With both teams so far between them only managing 5 tries in 4 games and Munster having a strong defence I think the unders are value.

Recommendations: Munster to win @ 2.1 for 2 points on Betfair WON. Total match points under 38.5pts @ 2.0 for 1 point on Labrokes LOST.

Comment slash learnings on last nights games:

I fecking hate Scottish refs! Unbelievable denied a nice 4.0 in that game. Connacht showed plenty of spirit to come back from 0-7 down and proved me wrong. Glasgow missing 2/3 players are quite weak while the Dragons look to be a team to back at home no matter what the opposition which could be interesting for the H-Cup.


--------------------------------------------------

Sorry for the delay in getting going again. Clearly I'm still possessing a small hangover from the Heineken Cup victory celebrations!

It's been an interesting two rounds so far in the Magners league with a few interesting results. Most people like to stay away from the first few games. I don't tend to agree, if you've done you homework. For me I've been on holidays and flying around Europe so I haven't had the time to do the intense research you've come to expect ;)

Connacht v Cardiff

To be honest I don't think there could be anything worse than being a Connacht supporter. Somewhat permanently stuck in limbo from ever been allowed to be a good team and scraping around for money. They had a massive clear out with almost a full first 15 kicked out with and only a few interesting signings. It looked like a decent start with a narrow loss at home to Ospreys however that form looked with Osprey's losing to Ulster at home the following week. Then Connacht gave Edinburgh their biggest ever victory at Murrayfield.

Cardiff seem to have better form, losing narrowly to strong starters Edinburgh and rueing some terrible kicking from Sam Night-Rider. This guy had a shocker and couldn't control his bowls. In their second game they lost out to Munster but conceded a massive amount of turnovers and kept it respectable still. If they can and I think they will reduce these turnovers they'll improve.

The handicap of eight points in my opinion is too low due, it's probably based on the belief that Connacht will always put up a fight at home. Hpwever time and time again a team who can unleash powerful runners (Thomas, Heighpenny and Roberts who is just back) against Connacht score tries. The Osprey's aren't on great form and they managed to win by 7 against Connacht.

Recommendation: Cardiff - 8 at 1.91 on Paddy Power for 1 point LOST.

Dragons v Glasgow

This game is quite simple in my opinion. Both teams are getting stronger however injuries are going to be making a difference in this. Without the Evans's brothers Glasgow lack real bite and they didn't finish off the Scarlets last week who aren't a great side missing just one of them.

Dragons put in a spirited performance and have only lost once in 7 league games (and that was Munster) at home. Glasgow only won once in 7 and conceded on average 28 points per game.

Recommendation: Dragons to win halftime/fulltime @ 2.5 on Stan James for 1 point WON and Dragons - 2 @ 1.91 on Boylesports for one point WON.

Osprey's vs Leinster

I know some of you think I'm obviously biased on Leinster, but then again I'd argue by saying I spend more attention watching them and know them better. I was at their last pre-season game and they were completely undercooked and it was why they lost to Scarlets. I think Cheika is just slowly warming them up for a long disrupted season, which a few other teams have. Osprey's with this similar problem have started slow out of the box and missing plenty of internationals. Then again, they haven't been playing great for awhile even with in-form Welsh players.

I was surprised Leinster weren't starting as favourites considering Osprey's lost last week but maybe it's the Byrne return factor. However players coming back might not be as sharp. I think the Leinster forward line are tough with the exception of a weakness in Fogarty, while Sean O'Brien and McLaughlin have been playing stormers. This is where they should muscle Osprey's who were out-muscled by out of form Ulster last week at home.

Interestingly Leinster have been starting games well and Shaun Berne has been keeping the score board running with drop goals. I think this could be a close enough encounter but Osprey's will really have to improve from previous weeks and I really don't fancy their chances of even making the top four by the end of the season.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 4.0 for 1 point on Betfair or William Hill LOST.