Saturday and Sunday Games
I'm off on the train to Llanelli very early tomorrow morning so I haven't had the time to check the other games.
Initial thoughts looking at the fixture list but these are by no means recommendations
Viadana v Ospreys - If Osprey's are missing key players they may miss the handicap
Ulster v Stade - Ulster need Wallace to win this, possibly could be 10 pt win by Stade if Glasgow beat them by 7pts last weekend.
Cardiff v Toulouse - Perps did well yesterday. If Toulouse have decent team they should beat the handicap.
Brive v Irish - In-running game. If Brive are up for it Irish could be in trouble as they've lost form.
Llanelli v Leinster - I'm at the game so look out for me. Leinster on paper have great team but the 9/10 is weak. If Berne starts well we might make it, otherwise I'm on unders.
Enjoy the weekend and hope you find a few winners.
Glasgow v Gloucester
In theory this game will probably be more interesting than the one in Thomond. You've got two teams who appear to be at full strength and a tight handicap line favouring the home side. A classic rugby game.
The slight favouring of home side of evenly matched teams is fair enough, personally I think it should be more than just slight in this case. I'll always favour a Magners league team performing well against an on/off performing Guinness Premiership team.
Gloucester don't seem to be playing brilliant this season and can't seem to get any consistent form. In fact the one thing they have done consistently is lost away from home winning only one in seven and shipping an average of almost twenty nine points . Whilst they've beat Leicester at home with a lucky knock-on, Leicester were missing Flood who actually helps them score tries. Also they seem to be coming back late and starting their games slowly, whilst Glasgow are the opposite.
Glasgow have only lost twice at home this season both in the Heineken Cup. Once to the best team in Wales, the Dragons and rather unluckily against Biarritz. They are also on the back of a good win away to Ulster who themselves have gone off the boil lately but aren't easy to beat at home.
Both teams possessing strong kickers but Parks gets the nod, the fella just doesn't miss. Personally I think Glasgow are playing well as a unit and have grown up a lot this season. They're top of the Magners league at the moment and have to win this game to hold any hope of getting through. I'll wear my Magners league blinkers on this one and go for Glasgow.
Recommendation: Glasgow to win @ 1.73 for 1 point with Tote Sport. Glasgow/Glasgow HT/FT for 1 points @2.5 on Tote Sport. Glasgow -2 pts for 1 point with many bookies.
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024
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Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The
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1 week ago
Yeah maye - Glasgow are definitely underrated as are Edinburgh and probably also Scotland for that matter. Physically they are at the races but no elan or flair player..yet. Having said that, Perpignan +9 are my bet of the weekend. I had Montauban +17 v Newcastle last night (and was lucky - 17-6) but feel Perpignan will run Munster very close - Mermoz at 13. And also have feeling Empire of Munster is beginning to crumble. . . .
ReplyDeletemaybe not maye
ReplyDeleteTough call on the Munster game.
ReplyDeletePersonally I think Munster will win but I fancy Perps to at least give it to them for 50-60 mins. Sky Bet half time handicap of -5 at evens looks good to me.
Was all set to get going on Perpignan and hope the French team exploit a few clear Munster weaknesses, but it appears that Tonita is out and that leaves Perp with an average age of about 20 in the back-row. Real shame, with 2 first choice back-rows out this would have been a big bet for me.
ReplyDeleteAs for this Glasgow game, the fog is rolling in and I fancy a low scoring affair so have taken under 33 at 6/4 and the draw at anything over 20/1.
Draws are a no-brainer this year which is great news for an inveterate draw backer. The change in the rules, which apparently allows all sorts of illegalities at rucks only for the inevitable outcome to be a penalty for holding on, means fewer points and tighter games as a rule. Add in some fog and a game that the bookies have made quite close anyway......
RugbyMan
The fog lifting before kick-off and the ref confounding the commentators with multiple penalties! My points bet down the pan before half-time. Knew it was a bad idea to trust the Gloucester defence.
ReplyDeleteLooks like you have a good chance of another winner Ken. Good work.
RugbyMan
p.s. Lend us a fiver......
cheers brother..
ReplyDeletetook shitty odds on lads and stan but all i could access from the states.. betfair wnkers ;)
Sorry to both Rugby Man and Cormy.
ReplyDeleteRM - I'd be more worried about wind and rain than FOG. Unless you a Saffer you've seen it before.
Cormie - You should be able to bet on Betfair Mobile in your current location.
I should have posted my Perps +5 at HT as an offical tip but those on the comments I hope you followed it. I did it.
4/4 for now, however I'm off on the train early tomorrow to watch Leinster in Llanelli. So I don't think I'll have time to do any more.