Magners League Round 4

Last weekend was emotional, maybe there is something to be learned from it with my bet choice however I thought there was massive value on the Leinster/Leinster only to be robbed by a Scottish ref!

This weekend is slightly more difficult to pick out the winners on Saturday's games. First up though is Friday night's game.

Connacht v Ulster

I had a few quick texts/comments from my loyal Connacht supporter (notice the singular) to gloat. Fair play to them, they turned it upside down and we've seem some short price teams, Cardiff last week at 1.15 and Ospreys at 1.07 against Ulster lose. Now who says the Magners league isn't interesting, however I think this could be back to business as usual for Connacht.

They interestingly have not won two games in a row in the league since Sept 2006. Last year they beat Munster and Leinster at home but lost to Ulster by two points. In fact Ulster haven't lost to Connacht in their last 8 games.

Ulster last week had a blistering opening pace and looked much better than Edinburgh but missed some early chances and kicks. With Paddy Wallace coming back in at certain I think it adds a little more class and better kicking. Ferris is out however Henry is a strong replacement. With powerful runners likes Nagusa and Danelli Connacht will have a tough time defending them. They were slightly lucky that poor kicking from Keatley stopped Connacht from winning last time though. I just feel that Ulster have more to offer and Connacht though competitive for inter-provs haven't improved their side from last year.

If Ulster come out like they did last week they'll put a score up against Ulster however I wouldn't want another verbal-bashing from the singular Connacht fan.

Recommendation - Ulster/Ulster @2.12 for 1 point with Betfair WON.

Glasgow v Osprey's

On paper Osprey's, in reality Glasgow. What is the story with Welsh teams this year? Apart from the Dragons (the Welsh development side????) not one team has a back bone or a bit of class.

I really think this is quite simple, Glasgow are a good side and Ospreys are pants so far. Sure they might turn it on with Williams back but their back line was flat and standing still for the whole game last week. Added to the fact that I'm expecting Scott Johnson to give me a call to go in at front row for next week they have no pack. Glasgow have an excellent front row and if Osprey's finished where they left off last week they'll be hammered up front.

You can still back both teams at evens at the moment but I would price Glasgow as a 1.75 shot to be honest. They have an Evans back and the impression I got from last week was that they were rotating for the Dragons (the number one team in Wales) who beat them comfortably.

Recommendation:- Glasgow to win 2.1 for 2 points with Totesport LOST.

I don't have time to stick up my profit as I'm running to the pub but I'm in profit, honest ;)

Twitter

Apparently this was the new thing 6 months ago.

I'm on it and you can stalk me on there if you're that lonely - http://twitter.com/kendoesrugby/

It's Back - Magners League Round 3

Scarlets v Munster

Munster go into this game with a pretty comfortable win at home against Cardiff, who then showed last night that they really have problems on the road in losing to Connacht. Scarlets who are also bad travellers lost away to Glasgow, who subsequently got royally thumped by the Dragons last night.

Munster are currently 6-0 for the last six meetings between these sides and even though they are weakened by not having their two first choice locks, 7 and favoured 9-10 partnership they are by no means massively depleted. Niall Ronan has stepped up a gear at 7 since leaving Leinster and Manning is playing well at 10 . Luckily this 3 month contract scrum half from NZ actually went to school with Manning over there so at least they know each other and O'Leary is waiting on the bench for a return from injury. There only weakness in the back is Hurley who in my opinion isn't a great player.

Scarlets have one major problem (and plenty of smallers one) and that's the breakdown. With Munster's almost first choice back row available there will be a fierce amount of turnovers and slowing down of play which will stop a very average Scarlets backline from playing. Scarlets in my opinon are side going from bad to worse and seem to be in no mans land with ball in hand.

This is a really interesting game from a punting perspective and some of the bookies have taken different opinions which is always nice to see. You rarely see Munster not being favourites for a game and you should always side with them in that event, especially considering they've beaten these guys 6 from 6. Scarlets beat a completely unfit and under prepared Leinster team at home in the first game and only just after losing in the first half and some dodgy sinbins. Interestingly of the last six games these side have met, they've beaten the current total points spread of 38.5 three times. With both teams so far between them only managing 5 tries in 4 games and Munster having a strong defence I think the unders are value.

Recommendations: Munster to win @ 2.1 for 2 points on Betfair WON. Total match points under 38.5pts @ 2.0 for 1 point on Labrokes LOST.

Comment slash learnings on last nights games:

I fecking hate Scottish refs! Unbelievable denied a nice 4.0 in that game. Connacht showed plenty of spirit to come back from 0-7 down and proved me wrong. Glasgow missing 2/3 players are quite weak while the Dragons look to be a team to back at home no matter what the opposition which could be interesting for the H-Cup.


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Sorry for the delay in getting going again. Clearly I'm still possessing a small hangover from the Heineken Cup victory celebrations!

It's been an interesting two rounds so far in the Magners league with a few interesting results. Most people like to stay away from the first few games. I don't tend to agree, if you've done you homework. For me I've been on holidays and flying around Europe so I haven't had the time to do the intense research you've come to expect ;)

Connacht v Cardiff

To be honest I don't think there could be anything worse than being a Connacht supporter. Somewhat permanently stuck in limbo from ever been allowed to be a good team and scraping around for money. They had a massive clear out with almost a full first 15 kicked out with and only a few interesting signings. It looked like a decent start with a narrow loss at home to Ospreys however that form looked with Osprey's losing to Ulster at home the following week. Then Connacht gave Edinburgh their biggest ever victory at Murrayfield.

Cardiff seem to have better form, losing narrowly to strong starters Edinburgh and rueing some terrible kicking from Sam Night-Rider. This guy had a shocker and couldn't control his bowls. In their second game they lost out to Munster but conceded a massive amount of turnovers and kept it respectable still. If they can and I think they will reduce these turnovers they'll improve.

The handicap of eight points in my opinion is too low due, it's probably based on the belief that Connacht will always put up a fight at home. Hpwever time and time again a team who can unleash powerful runners (Thomas, Heighpenny and Roberts who is just back) against Connacht score tries. The Osprey's aren't on great form and they managed to win by 7 against Connacht.

Recommendation: Cardiff - 8 at 1.91 on Paddy Power for 1 point LOST.

Dragons v Glasgow

This game is quite simple in my opinion. Both teams are getting stronger however injuries are going to be making a difference in this. Without the Evans's brothers Glasgow lack real bite and they didn't finish off the Scarlets last week who aren't a great side missing just one of them.

Dragons put in a spirited performance and have only lost once in 7 league games (and that was Munster) at home. Glasgow only won once in 7 and conceded on average 28 points per game.

Recommendation: Dragons to win halftime/fulltime @ 2.5 on Stan James for 1 point WON and Dragons - 2 @ 1.91 on Boylesports for one point WON.

Osprey's vs Leinster

I know some of you think I'm obviously biased on Leinster, but then again I'd argue by saying I spend more attention watching them and know them better. I was at their last pre-season game and they were completely undercooked and it was why they lost to Scarlets. I think Cheika is just slowly warming them up for a long disrupted season, which a few other teams have. Osprey's with this similar problem have started slow out of the box and missing plenty of internationals. Then again, they haven't been playing great for awhile even with in-form Welsh players.

I was surprised Leinster weren't starting as favourites considering Osprey's lost last week but maybe it's the Byrne return factor. However players coming back might not be as sharp. I think the Leinster forward line are tough with the exception of a weakness in Fogarty, while Sean O'Brien and McLaughlin have been playing stormers. This is where they should muscle Osprey's who were out-muscled by out of form Ulster last week at home.

Interestingly Leinster have been starting games well and Shaun Berne has been keeping the score board running with drop goals. I think this could be a close enough encounter but Osprey's will really have to improve from previous weeks and I really don't fancy their chances of even making the top four by the end of the season.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 4.0 for 1 point on Betfair or William Hill LOST.

Magners League Betting 17th & 18th April

Well I've calmed down a bit after last weekends heroics by Leinster and punting prowess. Hopefully we'll be as successful in the punting and keep the nice roll going.

Edinburgh v Leinster

Cheika came out after last week's game and said his players were 'broken' after the win against Quins. The team selection clearly shows that some players are broken and can't even make the the flight over. Leinster's strength in depth has improved in recent seasons however it is more because of players being pushed out of their position and falling down the pecking order at this stage than a new breed of fringe players. Really this is possibly the worst team they could field. Although O'Brien and McFadden are good players, the front row and second row are seriously short of game time and most likely ability. These Leinster players aren't sharp and don't have that much game time especially in the pack.

Edinburgh, who didn't play great two weeks but got a strong result, 16-3 against Cardiff (who went on to beat Toulouse), again name another strong squad here. Leinster's inexperienced front row will suffer (and I'd be surprised if they last). They don't have Rocky who has carried them over the line for numerous games this season and Nacewa at ten is worrying. Edinburgh have strong kickers (they are scoring plenty of drop goals) and play a similar style to the England squad Robinson was involved in, keep the scoreboard ticking over. It won't be a try fest barring terrible defensive errors but won by kickers, of which Leinster don't have one. Nacewa kicked for the Blues but if he was good why hasn't he stepped in for Felipe or even take a few long pot shots?

This game last season saw Leinster lose by 3 points against a weaker Edinburgh side and they (Leinster) were at full strength, remember Edinburgh are genearlly excellent at home. I don't think these fringe Leinster players can focus and keep up the league push here, unfortunately.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -11pts @2.5 for 1.5points on Paddy P's.

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Glasgow v Ulster

Ulster lost two weeks ago against what can only be described as a weakend Ospreys team who's first squad were royally whipped last week. Previously before that they lost by around 25points against Leinster who can't score tries. Matt Williams this season has been saying all the right things but it looks like the spark that they produced around the festive season may have fizzled now that they don't have anything to play for.

Glasgow themselves (as predicted by me!) won away against Llanelli. The Scarlets are all over the place at the moment but stilll it was a very respectable result and try tally by Glasgow and they can play when up for it. I think they'll continue against an improving but ultimately average Ulster defence. Ulster have conceded on average since Jan 23.2points each game on the road whilst the Dragons don't seem to have problems scoring tries but conede a few.

So it should be an open enough game and but with Cave and Nagusa not playing for Ulster (because of form issues) they lack some real pace and O'Connor isn't a game turner at 10 yet, so I can't see where the points are coming from. The Evans brothers are quality Magners league players who in good playing conditions (which it should be tomorrow night) will look to reverse the 12-0 loss to Ulster in March in terrible conditions.

Recommendation: Glasgow -6 for 2pts on Betfair at 2.0. Over 38.5pt @1.95 for 1pt on Betfair

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

Munster v Ospreys

Munster played well and took all the chances required to beat Leinster last week. Ronan O'Gara took his points and they got two tries from soft defending however never looked under severe pressure. I expect this game tomorrow to go the same.

Ospreys are missing Byrne, Henson, Walker in the backs and are weakened slightly in the forwards by injury. Munster have a full strength squad to choose from apart from Tipoki. The Munster forwards should improve from a below average performance last week a should dominate this game and provide their backs, with the vastly improving Earls at second centre, good ball to score.

Ospreys haven't played particularly well all season and all the Welsh teams haven't played consistently well since Christmas. I don't expect this to be a massive try scoring game and even possibly see Munster be outscored in tries but they will win by 10points. Another preview that shares my belief for Munster v Ospreys, click here

Recommendation: Munster to win Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.66 for 2 points, WON. Munster -7.5 @1.92 for 1 pt. WON

Harlequins v Leinster

As can only be expected last week Leinster were berated in the media for a listless performance. I was their shouting them on from the sidelines and maybe I was wearing blinkers but I thought we performed very well and were let down by Felipe's kicking and two very poor attempts at tackling by Horgan and Kearney. These two shocking defensive errors let Munster in to score with their only meaningful attempts at the line. What could be taken out of the game for Leinster was, they had possession, stole 9 balls at the ruck and Rocky Elsom is the greatest back row forward in the world today.

Harlequins have been in excellent form losing only once in 10 games and last week on scraps of possession held back a poor Bath team in the Rec. I've always been of the view that English teams are overrated because of Sky hype and I think this applies here to. Quins have a strong pack however this Leinster pack last week out-scrummed and rucked the best pack in Europe. This Leinster backrow is perfectly balanced and probably the best running back row in Europe.

Quins have an exciting backline themselves with a few in form players and probably the best Kiwi import of the season in Evans at 10, although he is coming back from four weeks off and could be a little rusty. I went against Leinster last week for the simple reason their centre partnership was completely skewed towards a rugby league stsyle. Darcy is not a 13 and Horgan isn't a centre. Those guys don't have the hands to release the rest of the backs. With Brian and Luke back in play this dramatically changes Leinster's potency with ball in hand.

While its a big ask I have to fall back on the belief on what I've been backing all season and that is that English teams are overrated. Felipe needs to and should have his kicking boots back on while Whitaker needs to be quicker (which he was last week).

Leinster opened up at 2.1 and I could never back them at that price. They are now being matched at 2.5 and I think this could even hit 2.6 by lunchtime tomorrow with the English punters coming in on Betfair.

It should be cracker. A more sceptical Heinken Cup Quins v Leinster preview available by click here

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 2.5 for 1 point WON.

Current Profit: €1340.23 or 13.49 points with a 12.41% ROI for the season so far.