Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

Munster v Ospreys

Munster played well and took all the chances required to beat Leinster last week. Ronan O'Gara took his points and they got two tries from soft defending however never looked under severe pressure. I expect this game tomorrow to go the same.

Ospreys are missing Byrne, Henson, Walker in the backs and are weakened slightly in the forwards by injury. Munster have a full strength squad to choose from apart from Tipoki. The Munster forwards should improve from a below average performance last week a should dominate this game and provide their backs, with the vastly improving Earls at second centre, good ball to score.

Ospreys haven't played particularly well all season and all the Welsh teams haven't played consistently well since Christmas. I don't expect this to be a massive try scoring game and even possibly see Munster be outscored in tries but they will win by 10points. Another preview that shares my belief for Munster v Ospreys, click here

Recommendation: Munster to win Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.66 for 2 points, WON. Munster -7.5 @1.92 for 1 pt. WON

Harlequins v Leinster

As can only be expected last week Leinster were berated in the media for a listless performance. I was their shouting them on from the sidelines and maybe I was wearing blinkers but I thought we performed very well and were let down by Felipe's kicking and two very poor attempts at tackling by Horgan and Kearney. These two shocking defensive errors let Munster in to score with their only meaningful attempts at the line. What could be taken out of the game for Leinster was, they had possession, stole 9 balls at the ruck and Rocky Elsom is the greatest back row forward in the world today.

Harlequins have been in excellent form losing only once in 10 games and last week on scraps of possession held back a poor Bath team in the Rec. I've always been of the view that English teams are overrated because of Sky hype and I think this applies here to. Quins have a strong pack however this Leinster pack last week out-scrummed and rucked the best pack in Europe. This Leinster backrow is perfectly balanced and probably the best running back row in Europe.

Quins have an exciting backline themselves with a few in form players and probably the best Kiwi import of the season in Evans at 10, although he is coming back from four weeks off and could be a little rusty. I went against Leinster last week for the simple reason their centre partnership was completely skewed towards a rugby league stsyle. Darcy is not a 13 and Horgan isn't a centre. Those guys don't have the hands to release the rest of the backs. With Brian and Luke back in play this dramatically changes Leinster's potency with ball in hand.

While its a big ask I have to fall back on the belief on what I've been backing all season and that is that English teams are overrated. Felipe needs to and should have his kicking boots back on while Whitaker needs to be quicker (which he was last week).

Leinster opened up at 2.1 and I could never back them at that price. They are now being matched at 2.5 and I think this could even hit 2.6 by lunchtime tomorrow with the English punters coming in on Betfair.

It should be cracker. A more sceptical Heinken Cup Quins v Leinster preview available by click here

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 2.5 for 1 point WON.

Current Profit: €1340.23 or 13.49 points with a 12.41% ROI for the season so far.