Magners League Tips Betting Team News 21/2/09

An International break allows both fringe players for the international teams and provincials come together to all stick their hands up for places.

Dragons v Ulster

It been a good weekend for Irish provinces and I don't see it stopping here. Dragons have improved this season however it seems that the Welsh teams this weekend seem to be a little off form. The fact a good bunch of these Ulster players that are playing today played last week for the A game should give them a little more sharpness. The Dragons did play a development game last week however none of their forwards played in it, leading to the belief that Ulster should have the advantage up front.

The one worry in the Ulster team is they are missing Wallace and Ferris, key players in the backs and forwards respectively and Wallace's absence only highlighting an average 12, 13 partnership. Cave has strong running ability but needs Wallace to create him pace and slick passing. However on the wing Danelli is an excellent strong runner and is bound to cause damage against the Dragons. Reading an interview with Ulster No. 8, Chris Henry they are really keen to point out that the league is their only salvation this year from a poor start and its their major focus.

This will probably be an open game and we should expect some high scoring. In the six nations break last year these teams also met but in Ravenhill which saw Ulster win comfortably. Dragons do have almost a full squad to choose from but I think Ulster are better than where they were last year and missing 3 internationals Matt Williams still has kept the team fresh all year to allow experienced players fill the gaps.

Recommendation:- Ulster to win @2.15 on Betfair for 1pt Lost & total tries over 3.5pts @1.8 on Paddy Powers for 2pts Won.

Munster v Edinburgh

I'll be brief as the game is about to kick off.

Munster suffered a few late changes with Ryan out. Every game they have played without POC and ROG they have struggled. I don't think Edinburgh are any great shakes however +11.5pts is too nice considering Patterson should keep the score competitive.

Recommendation - Edinburgh +11.5 @2.1 for 1.5points Lost.

Scarlets v Leinster

I'll never claim to be an expert on Welsh rugby but I have follow Scarlets closely (to my punting expense) this season. They have stuttered through the season maintaining a decent league position without really exploding into life in any games, see Glasgow Warrior game at home where I put up a big bet, and failed.

Without Jones they turn to Preistland who is a decent player however he lacks the game controlling ability of Stephen Jones. Without two Jones' and two forwards Scarlets probably don't have the strength in depth. Being an eternal optimist Leinster do! Darcy is back to his best position and they've abandoned Nacewa at 10 and returned Dr. Phil. It is a very strong backline with two youngsters with promising McFadden and debutant Paul O'Donoghue, both of whom played well in an A game last week. Also it is a very strong forward pack with O'Kelly and Elsom providing some leadership and Healy coming back from a massive A game with Ireland last week.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the handicaps lines open up for this one when there was a 6 point spread difference between bookies. I luckily got Leinster +3 last night with Boyles which was a crazy price as Paddy's clearly fancy Leinster, they were -3 on the handicap. Boyles have changed their line to Leinster +1 now but they stupidly haven't changed their prices on the alternative handicap markets. A bit of an arbing opp as they have Leinster -3 at 2.68 in their alternative handicap market and you could probably lay Leinster -2.5 for 2.1.

This will be a close game with the lead changing through points kicking but Leinster should click by the second half. Importantly watching Cardiff last night it could be a pointer that the Welsh teams aren't the freshest and don't have a full game in them. Leinster in the mean time have played A game and their fringe internationals played an A game too.


Recommendation: Halftime/Fulltime - Scarlets/Leinster @ 7.0 for 0.5pts Lost. Leinster to win @2.0 for 1.5 points Won.

Current Profit: €855 or 8.55pts with a 9.4% ROI

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