Magners Leagure Weekend 10/09

Hello again.

I decided to leave the first week of Magners league action alone and just read the reports. Obviously a great result for the Benetton and a solid performance for Treviso against Munster and I was happy Leinster kept it respectable as we aren't fit and disorganised. So I'm hoping that some of the bookies and layers might over react to those games.

Osprey's v Benetton

Of course every Welsh team has high hopes at the start of the season but the Hairsprays have some excellent backup players to add to their International panel now. They lost to Ulster last week by one point but Ulster are the Man City of the Magners league now, spending and paying big with the IRFU's permission. Also Ulster played a lot more friendlies at the start of the season against tougher opposition so they were always going to win this. The Ospreys clicked into gear in the second half to only lose by just a point which was a good sign.

Benetton are the more solid and structured of the Italian teams and are not building from scratch. To put their win in context, Scarlets are shocking away from home, they've only won three times since 2009 away and their team is weaker than last year. For Benetton, I'm of the belief that even though the Magners League isn't anything like the H-Cup for intensity, they are going to find the higher level and away matches harder to be consistent.

Osprey's did play Benetton two years ago in the H-Cup and won away by 20 points and by 60 at home. Whilst Benetton are an improved side now and glowing after their first win I think that they are the team to punish others for mistakes. In Biggar they have a ten who can keep the score board ticking. Ospreys should be looking for a bonus point win and the handicap of 20 looks achievable. The weather doesn't look good for tomorrow which puts me off a spread or higher handicap but I'll take the standard line on.

Recommendation: Ospreys - 2o @1.91 for 2 pts with William Hill.

I'll be studying the Munster game a bit more tomorrow before making a judgement but it looks like Boyles are being a little generous with Edinburgh at -1, most others are -3 or higher. Won't last long.

More previews to follow......

Heineken Cup Semi Finals

Toulouse v Leinster

A year after Cheika joined Leinster, the province and this squad had their seminal moment beating Toulouse in one of the best games of rugby I've ever seen. Cheika has since shown why he was the most in demand coach when announcing he was leaving 'Les Blues' as he turned the bridesmaids into European champions.

On that day in 2006 Leinster were a different team playing a different style. The match was open, attacking and at some times just plain crazy. Remember this try? Anyway if Leinster of old were to show up with the same attitude, personally I think they could win this game.

Toulouse have a strong squad and are hardly carrying any knocks. Over the past few weeks their pack has become immense and according to the reports I've read Byron Kelleher is back in form after a quite patch. Leinster go to Toulouse with question marks over three or four players, limited game time for others and two losses all be it with weak squads. Sexton is a massive loss but the freshness and fitness of other players is more of an issue to me.

Against Clermont, Horgan and O'Driscoll were unfit and certainly lacking match sharpness. They haven't shown much since that game. The real battle is going to be in the scrum and without CJ starting Leinster are going to be going backwards at every scrum time. They are not going to get the possession and platform to play the percentage and pressure game they need. Depending on how Nigel ref's we could see them being pinged for numerous free kicks and penos. I just can't see how we'll have the opportunity to defend hard with a scrum going backwards.

In terms of a betting proposition the 1.4 for Toulouse is probably too short even though they should win. I couldn't really get overly excited with the handicap of 7 either. Personally I think that Toulouse will either lose or win by 15 or more and it's 50/50 on either of those. Watching Leinster as intently as I have for the past few months there is a worrying trend. They are becoming hesitant at the start, it happened against Clermont, Connacht and Ospreys. The only way they can win this is by starting strongly and keep the scrum working, that's how they won the cup last year. I might get involved if after 10/15 mins Leinster look like they're really up for it and the defence is in Toulouse face, I'll look at the Leinster +7. If it isn't I'll by looking to Toulouse +15.

Recommendation: No bet. Just enjoy it.

Magners League Weekend 16/4

Leinster v Ospreys

Just a quick preview before the price moves for tonight's big game before a price goes. Osprey's are playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have made a few changes but have clearly targeted their previous two games for wins, of which they got one. Beating Ulster has helped their cause massively to qualify for the Magners league playoffs.

Osprey's haven't beaten Leinster in any of their last 5 games home or away. Most bookies are going Leinster -7 or -8. To he honest before kick off that could drift out further.

William Hill are still Leinster -6 and I've taken some of that. Leinster are missing Sexton and O'Driscoll but are fine elsewhere. McFadden is playing and he is a strong kicker. I'd expect them to take this Osprey's team who have barely had two days in Wales since they lost to Biarritz.

Recommendation: Leinster -6 with William Hill for 2 points.

Magners League Easter Weekend

I'm back! It's been awhile I know and I did warn you that I would be quieter around the Internationals. Anyway straight into the action starting with the biggest game this weekend.

Connacht v Edinburgh

Connacht as you would only expect put on a good performance in the RDS last week and only inexperience cost them in the end. They've made a few changes today in order to keep them fresh for their big European next week. I've said it before (and sometimes got it wrong) that Connacht find it extremely hard to put two big games in a row. If I was Bradley I'd take a hit on this game for European glory and something to add to the CV when he leaves this summer. They have a strong team out but they've got an eye on next week.

Edinburgh have been stuttering about all season and been dogged by poor away form. They've been slightly unlucky as most of their away trips were to inform teams at the time. They have a strong line-up to chose from this weekend and you have to remember that they hammered Connacht 62-13 in Murrayfield at the start of the season. So how can a team who crucified their opponents and have a better team to choose from today be almost evens to win away? I personally had them at about 1.7 to win and maybe considering Connacht if there was a nice handicap but personally the current price is wrong.

Recommendation: Edinburgh to win at 1.91 for 1.5 pts (with Betfair/888Sport/Bluesquare), Connacht/Edinburgh in the Halftime/Fulltime market @7.2 for 0.5pt with Betfair.

Munster v Leinster

Enough has probably been said regarding the build up with the usual column inch filling clichés, so I'll just focus on the facts.

Leinster have had the upper hand in the last two games against Munster including a massive victory at the beginning of the season. However Munster weren't focused on that game and were worried about Northampton the following week (which they lost) and then Leinster went on and lost against Irish at home.

Looking at the head to heads an interesting stat comes across. In the last six games whoever has won has done so with an impressive margin of at least 7 points but generally around 15 points. Watching some of the games you would know that the scoreline didn't reflect the performance. Case in point being Thomand last season where a severely depleted Leinster were beaten 22-5 however it was just two shocking pieces of defending that game away two tries. A more pertinent fact I take interest in is that Leinster have lost three times this year away and ignoring the Dragons game which was a complete B team they put out, have not lost by more than 3 points.

Looking at the past six clashes there has never been more than a total of more than 33 points points scored. With the conditions underfoot likely to be at least soggy with the possibility of showers the total match points market should be of some interest.

I personally think Munster will win this game and need to win it more than Leinster both in terms of team morale but also their position in the Magners league for a home semi. Both teams have tough enough games next week and of course will have one eye on them. Munster perhaps having the easier of the two but they've stuttered all season unlike last year. Both teams laboured to a victory last week however I couldn't believe the handicap for the Leinster game, Connacht always put up a brave match and Leinster have rarely had 17pts on them.

Upfront I favour Leinster, personally I think Quinlan has past it, Ronan only plays one good in two and missing Paul O'Connell is a big loss to their pack, this should keep the game tighter. They rarely play amazing without him. The Munster back line and especially centre partnership should over power the ever improving but slight McFadden. I'm not happy with Dempsey on the wing for Leinster and he offers very little both in terms of pace and creativity aged 35. One of the new wingers should have had his chance today.

I think we are due a close points game for a change but the total amount of those points will be consistent with history. The bookies range from Munster -4 to -7 and the latter makes it an attractive proposition to back Leinster on the handicap.

Recommendations: Leinster +7 for one point at 1.91 with Bodog. Total Match Points under 36.5pts for two points with Boylesports at 1.8*.

*Also a spread bet is a good option here with sportsspread.com if rain does arrive it could dampen the fixture completely and you've a lot playing for you. Their spread is 33-36 and I can't imagine it being a massive open fixture with more than 40 points.

Magners League 05/03/2010

No time for a preview.

Ulster have a strong side who if they play the same as the did against the Dragons will open up Scarlets a lot easier.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.38 with Stan James for 1 point.