Heineken Cup Semi Finals

Toulouse v Leinster

A year after Cheika joined Leinster, the province and this squad had their seminal moment beating Toulouse in one of the best games of rugby I've ever seen. Cheika has since shown why he was the most in demand coach when announcing he was leaving 'Les Blues' as he turned the bridesmaids into European champions.

On that day in 2006 Leinster were a different team playing a different style. The match was open, attacking and at some times just plain crazy. Remember this try? Anyway if Leinster of old were to show up with the same attitude, personally I think they could win this game.

Toulouse have a strong squad and are hardly carrying any knocks. Over the past few weeks their pack has become immense and according to the reports I've read Byron Kelleher is back in form after a quite patch. Leinster go to Toulouse with question marks over three or four players, limited game time for others and two losses all be it with weak squads. Sexton is a massive loss but the freshness and fitness of other players is more of an issue to me.

Against Clermont, Horgan and O'Driscoll were unfit and certainly lacking match sharpness. They haven't shown much since that game. The real battle is going to be in the scrum and without CJ starting Leinster are going to be going backwards at every scrum time. They are not going to get the possession and platform to play the percentage and pressure game they need. Depending on how Nigel ref's we could see them being pinged for numerous free kicks and penos. I just can't see how we'll have the opportunity to defend hard with a scrum going backwards.

In terms of a betting proposition the 1.4 for Toulouse is probably too short even though they should win. I couldn't really get overly excited with the handicap of 7 either. Personally I think that Toulouse will either lose or win by 15 or more and it's 50/50 on either of those. Watching Leinster as intently as I have for the past few months there is a worrying trend. They are becoming hesitant at the start, it happened against Clermont, Connacht and Ospreys. The only way they can win this is by starting strongly and keep the scrum working, that's how they won the cup last year. I might get involved if after 10/15 mins Leinster look like they're really up for it and the defence is in Toulouse face, I'll look at the Leinster +7. If it isn't I'll by looking to Toulouse +15.

Recommendation: No bet. Just enjoy it.