Magners League Easter Weekend

I'm back! It's been awhile I know and I did warn you that I would be quieter around the Internationals. Anyway straight into the action starting with the biggest game this weekend.

Connacht v Edinburgh

Connacht as you would only expect put on a good performance in the RDS last week and only inexperience cost them in the end. They've made a few changes today in order to keep them fresh for their big European next week. I've said it before (and sometimes got it wrong) that Connacht find it extremely hard to put two big games in a row. If I was Bradley I'd take a hit on this game for European glory and something to add to the CV when he leaves this summer. They have a strong team out but they've got an eye on next week.

Edinburgh have been stuttering about all season and been dogged by poor away form. They've been slightly unlucky as most of their away trips were to inform teams at the time. They have a strong line-up to chose from this weekend and you have to remember that they hammered Connacht 62-13 in Murrayfield at the start of the season. So how can a team who crucified their opponents and have a better team to choose from today be almost evens to win away? I personally had them at about 1.7 to win and maybe considering Connacht if there was a nice handicap but personally the current price is wrong.

Recommendation: Edinburgh to win at 1.91 for 1.5 pts (with Betfair/888Sport/Bluesquare), Connacht/Edinburgh in the Halftime/Fulltime market @7.2 for 0.5pt with Betfair.

Munster v Leinster

Enough has probably been said regarding the build up with the usual column inch filling clichés, so I'll just focus on the facts.

Leinster have had the upper hand in the last two games against Munster including a massive victory at the beginning of the season. However Munster weren't focused on that game and were worried about Northampton the following week (which they lost) and then Leinster went on and lost against Irish at home.

Looking at the head to heads an interesting stat comes across. In the last six games whoever has won has done so with an impressive margin of at least 7 points but generally around 15 points. Watching some of the games you would know that the scoreline didn't reflect the performance. Case in point being Thomand last season where a severely depleted Leinster were beaten 22-5 however it was just two shocking pieces of defending that game away two tries. A more pertinent fact I take interest in is that Leinster have lost three times this year away and ignoring the Dragons game which was a complete B team they put out, have not lost by more than 3 points.

Looking at the past six clashes there has never been more than a total of more than 33 points points scored. With the conditions underfoot likely to be at least soggy with the possibility of showers the total match points market should be of some interest.

I personally think Munster will win this game and need to win it more than Leinster both in terms of team morale but also their position in the Magners league for a home semi. Both teams have tough enough games next week and of course will have one eye on them. Munster perhaps having the easier of the two but they've stuttered all season unlike last year. Both teams laboured to a victory last week however I couldn't believe the handicap for the Leinster game, Connacht always put up a brave match and Leinster have rarely had 17pts on them.

Upfront I favour Leinster, personally I think Quinlan has past it, Ronan only plays one good in two and missing Paul O'Connell is a big loss to their pack, this should keep the game tighter. They rarely play amazing without him. The Munster back line and especially centre partnership should over power the ever improving but slight McFadden. I'm not happy with Dempsey on the wing for Leinster and he offers very little both in terms of pace and creativity aged 35. One of the new wingers should have had his chance today.

I think we are due a close points game for a change but the total amount of those points will be consistent with history. The bookies range from Munster -4 to -7 and the latter makes it an attractive proposition to back Leinster on the handicap.

Recommendations: Leinster +7 for one point at 1.91 with Bodog. Total Match Points under 36.5pts for two points with Boylesports at 1.8*.

*Also a spread bet is a good option here with sportsspread.com if rain does arrive it could dampen the fixture completely and you've a lot playing for you. Their spread is 33-36 and I can't imagine it being a massive open fixture with more than 40 points.