27th & 28th Mangners Leagues Game

Two games left this weekend and I think they are the more interesting in terms of value and punting.

Osprey's vs. Ulster - Ulster are going into this game still without a win after narrowly losing last week at home. That has to be a confidence crusher and I think the Osprey's are going to really have the upper hand here. Ospreys lost last week with a bonus point to Leinster and played well and they found Leinster's defence too tough, but they had the majority of the possession but just couldn't break Leinster down. At home against Ulster you can't but expect Osprey's to get a similar result as to what they got at the end of last season which was a 27pt victory. Matt Williams has picked a more experienced side than last week with Carlo De Fava and Cunningham coming back in and Trimble moving into centre. I fear they may be trying to shut up shop and make it a forward battle. Osprey's will easily match them here and also expose any weaknesses in the backs. Interestingly they've selected ex-Ulster man Bowe in second centre with Henson coming back from injury and onto the bench. Clearly they'll be looking to expose the lack of pace and tackling ability in the Ulster back line.

Recommendation:- Osprey's -12.5pts, 3pts @1.9 & Osprey's -24.5pts 1.5pts @ 4.1.

Leinster vs Munster

The grudge match with a lot of hype. Never mind the hype the facts are plain to see. Both teams are having their best starts to the league ever. They have had almost identical results with Munster having a win in Edinburgh whilst Leinster drawing with Cardiff on the first day. They are both rotating players very successfully. Leinster's forwards are as strong as they were last year (apart from the front row due to injuries) and Munster are continuing to try and play an expansive game. This is the one area I see a problem, Munster's 'expansive' game stems predominantly from their two kiwi centres and their game breaking ability. Watching them against Cardiff, when they were up against a tough defence these two players become very selfish and run sideways trying to push the play causing turnovers and penalties. I expect this game to be similar to last year, except Leinster have improved massively defensively. This will frustrate Musnter and cause these guys to run sideways as they did against Cardiff last week getting themselves into trouble.

Leinster have beaten Munster 3 times in a row in their last 3 meetings. Leinster have their two new signings starting, however unlike La Roux, CJ Van Der is not a destructive scrummager and may take time to form a partnership with the rest of the front row, in the loose he is a different story, if he runs at Earls it could be a rude awakening to professional rugby for the promising Munster man. Cheika would only pick McCormack in the front row as a last resort and it confirms the belief that Healy is carrying a shoulder injury and Wright is not near full fitness. I expect Munster to dominate in the scrums but watching last weeks game against Cardiff they lost 30% of their own lineouts and didn't win one of the oppositions. Cullen is a lineout champion and expect him to cause O'Connell and O'Callaghan problems all day. Flannery's throwing has been poor for a season now and it would need a massive improvement to allow Munster to dominate their traditional set piece game. Overlooking internationals

Mentality is the last area of interest. Last year's corresponding fixture saw Leamy sin binned, Dowling lose the plot and his head and having a terrible game. Leinster can now play and defend extremely well without the ball and not push the game (sounds like another team????). Contepomi has calmed down and was not 'got at' by Munster. Alot of the newpapers interviews with Munster players are speaking of 'revenge' and getting stuck in. With Cullen, Jennings, Elsom, S. Horgan Leinster posses some very cute players and if I could I would like to have a bet on Mafi and Tipoki both getting yellows. Which ever teams holds their head will get at least 9 points extra from kicks and looking at last weeks game, Leinster gave away two kickables and Munster gave away four and have been consistently penalising themselves in the previous games.

Recommendation:- Leinster to win, 2pts @1.65, Leinster Half Time/Full Time, 1pt at 2.25

Mangers w/c 19th Week 3

Stuck for time for my explanation

Leinster v Ospreys - Clash of the weekend. On paper Osprey's are Wales, look at the scores they have had against other teams and you'd be worried. They didn't finish a poor Connacht (only scoring one try) and last week just managed to beat Glasgow away. They did hammer Cardiff, however Cardiff had a poor team out, while Ospreys went for points. Their first and second choice scrum halves aren't available either. The handicap of 10.5pts is probably a bit too much, even though Leinster are extremely clinical at the moment, I think Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 1.9 is brilliant value (2pt bet on Betfair)

Connacht v Glasgow - Connacht have been poor. So have the Dragons. Connacht have to win this game or they are fecked. Do or die, but no bet for me.

Ulster v Dragons - Similar to Connacht, Ulster have to win. In last weeks game they weren't securing ball or set pieces. I reckon after three games Mr. Williams will get them right and they are a good bet to beat the handicap. Ulster -11.5pts @1.85 2point bet.

Munster v Cardiff - Munster walkover here. Don't have hanicap yet, if it close to 15pts I'm all over it.

For one point place an accumulator on Leinster to win, Ulster to win, Connacht to win and Munster to win.

Magners League Weekend 12/09/08 Predictions

Cardiff v Ulster - Playing three games in a week is massive. Although they have rotated players during the week most of the same players have appeared in each game. My belief is that this could effectively impact on recouperation and conditioning of Cardiff. The majority of the Cardiff players are basically playing nearly 190 mins of rugby in 8 days with little recouperation time, they'll have to tire by the second half. Ulster themselves lost badly against the Dragons last week however they are going to be hit and miss team this season. I don't think Ulster will win however when I saw Ulster + 12pts on Paddy Power I couldn't but get excited. If they are to improve this season which I think they can they can it will be to get closer to winning than they did the previous year. Cardiff beat Ulster 30-17 in the same game last May with Cardiff having practically the same team. Cardiff haven't moved on much this season with few signings, this is their third game in week, you'd have to fancy Ulster to make up at least 3 point score difference from last years peformance.

Prediciton - Ulster +12pts, 1 point @1.91 (With Paddy Power).

Leinster v Edinburgh - Leinster played well in the second half against Cardiff and can be slow to start at the beginning of the season. They now have a full squad with serious competition for places. The star of last week Nsawea on the subs bench today showing how confident Cheika is in his backs player selection. Trevor Hogan is back into the second row for Leinster which is an improvement from Devin Toner but most importantly Stan Wright is back in the front row to shore up what was a poor scrum last weekend. Edinburgh however have a few squad inuries. They have few strike runners, with Webster being injured and don't have a quality squad to pick form. Against Munster especially in the first half they were opened up quite easily by the improving Musnters backs.

With Leinster's backs recieving good ball from their pack we could see Edinburgh being opened up very easily. I think it could be close enough till half time, especially with Patterson to take all opportunies from his kicking but what the Munster game didn't show last week was the fact O'Gara missed 3 kicks, two of which were easy. This time last year Leinster beat Edinburgh (minus internationals because of the World Cup) 23-8. In the Heineken Cup last year Leinster somehow managed not to get a bonus point victory in a 28-14 game. Leinster should be stronger since then, are only missing a top class prop and Leo Cullen and have a stronger backline. Edinburgh are the same if not weaker.

Prediction : Leinster -10pts, 2 points @ 1.91 (Boyles are offering this handicap, every one else is minus 12pts. Great value and a nice penalty cushion).

Magners League Weekend 12/09/08

Some interesting team news:- http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2008/0911/1221039067722.html

Edinburgh ravaged by injuries. If Leinster can have a decent front 5 in place I predict a riot.

10th Sept

Osprey's v Cardiff - Ospreys -8.5pts max bet, 3 points!

I was surprised how Cardiff slowed in the second half against Leinster. Things going against Cardiff
- One less day recuperation than Osprey's
- They are playing again on Friday and team selection suggests focus on easier points against Ulster, where Cardiff will be at home
- Shanklin and their best forwards out. 10 changes in total

Postives for Ospreys
- Cardiff couldn't handle Leinster backline the three times they got near the line
- Ospreys have four excellent internationals in the backline
- Ospreys have a excellent 6-8 and with new ELV's and tired players this is going to kill Cardiff.

If I was a spread betting man I'd take everything i could...... Dave.

Worries -

Weather, don't bet until you see the picture on the TV or have a mate in Swansea who can tell you. If its going to be reasonably dry, I'd nearly have a punt on the higher handicap margin or spreads. That being said it is a Derby so Cardiff might be able to raise their tempo, however I really think this could be a thumping.

5th Sept Tips

Tough week with little form to go with so I'm only going to dip my toe in the water with some trading opps and one outright.

I fancy Connacht this season but don't think they can win the game outright but may at some point in second half of the game be in a good position. Same for Edinburgh. Leinster are missing some key forwards and their kicking was shocking last week. Plus they can be slow to start a season.

Connacht v Ospreys - Lay Osprey's @1.4 for 1pt. Set back bet to go inplay at 3.0 for 0.5pt.
Edinburgh v Munster - Lay Munster @1.66 for 1pt and back in play for 2.8 for 0.5pt.
Cardiff v Leinster - Back Cardiff -2.5pts @ 1.9

Hopefully I'll get something right.

Start of the Magners League

Well the new season of Irish Rugby is upon us.

The Irish teams have been quite successful in the pre-season with Leinster and Munster have clean sweep of victories in the warm ups. Both having strong convincing victories against decent sides, Queensland Reds and USA Eagles respectively. Connacht and Ulster have had mixed results in the reason but some strong performances.

So what can we take from the pre-season and new signings? The word at the start of the season is 'optimism' and some of the teams have reason for it, but they all can't win everything.

Leinster - After finally finding consistency last season, the forward pack dominated the season. They've added quality signings across the pitch however even though they played better and more consistently last year I have my doubts for a strong start. Last season Leinster looked awful at the start. Only Isa Nacewa of the new signings will be there for the first few games. Their second row is still week and Glesson and Ollie Le Roux are gone. So I think they could be slow starters, and certainly would be luck to get a win away to Cardiff. They won their in their second game last season, but it was completely against play and flukey.

Munster - New manager, few signings but still Munster. I think it will be interesting season as to be honest I think they played some weaker teams than the Munster possy would have you believe in the H-Cup. Generally quite slow to start I think Andy Robinsons Edinburgh team will certain push them.

Connacht - These guys will be interesting this season. I really think it could be a break through. Always competitve but missing a killer instinct. The signing and recent performances of young Leinster and Munster players could make their season especially Ian Keatley who could be the next big thing. They've got a opening game at home against Ospreys, however they haven't lost at home in their first game in the Magners leauge season in few seasons. Just really depends which Ospreys team shows up. This season I expect Connacht to win 75% of their home games even taking at least one provincial scalp with them. Considering the odds the other teams will be against them I'd be laying all opposition at the Sportsground this year. There are going to be a few shocks.

Ulster - Well how are these going to do. Come back to me after 3 games. Cleared out a lot of players brought some quality in. I love Matt and he will be great at building up some spirit and clearing out the divide that may have existed in the dressing room last year. I just feel they are lacking a few quality try scorers which will mean away from home they are fooked.

I'll be sticking up bets for this weekends games once the prices are up. What I'm thinking

I will be putting up prices for Connacht game, anything close to 2.5 is good value.

Munster great trading opp in their game, lay at 1.6 to trade out at 2.8 all green.

Leinster no bet probably, if they are shorter than 1.8 definately a lay.

Ulster, have to see the teams.

Good articles to read - http://betting.betfair.com/ie/rugby/irish-rugby-betting-the-four-provinces-update-310808.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2008/0903/1220372026258.html