27th & 28th Mangners Leagues Game

Two games left this weekend and I think they are the more interesting in terms of value and punting.

Osprey's vs. Ulster - Ulster are going into this game still without a win after narrowly losing last week at home. That has to be a confidence crusher and I think the Osprey's are going to really have the upper hand here. Ospreys lost last week with a bonus point to Leinster and played well and they found Leinster's defence too tough, but they had the majority of the possession but just couldn't break Leinster down. At home against Ulster you can't but expect Osprey's to get a similar result as to what they got at the end of last season which was a 27pt victory. Matt Williams has picked a more experienced side than last week with Carlo De Fava and Cunningham coming back in and Trimble moving into centre. I fear they may be trying to shut up shop and make it a forward battle. Osprey's will easily match them here and also expose any weaknesses in the backs. Interestingly they've selected ex-Ulster man Bowe in second centre with Henson coming back from injury and onto the bench. Clearly they'll be looking to expose the lack of pace and tackling ability in the Ulster back line.

Recommendation:- Osprey's -12.5pts, 3pts @1.9 & Osprey's -24.5pts 1.5pts @ 4.1.

Leinster vs Munster

The grudge match with a lot of hype. Never mind the hype the facts are plain to see. Both teams are having their best starts to the league ever. They have had almost identical results with Munster having a win in Edinburgh whilst Leinster drawing with Cardiff on the first day. They are both rotating players very successfully. Leinster's forwards are as strong as they were last year (apart from the front row due to injuries) and Munster are continuing to try and play an expansive game. This is the one area I see a problem, Munster's 'expansive' game stems predominantly from their two kiwi centres and their game breaking ability. Watching them against Cardiff, when they were up against a tough defence these two players become very selfish and run sideways trying to push the play causing turnovers and penalties. I expect this game to be similar to last year, except Leinster have improved massively defensively. This will frustrate Musnter and cause these guys to run sideways as they did against Cardiff last week getting themselves into trouble.

Leinster have beaten Munster 3 times in a row in their last 3 meetings. Leinster have their two new signings starting, however unlike La Roux, CJ Van Der is not a destructive scrummager and may take time to form a partnership with the rest of the front row, in the loose he is a different story, if he runs at Earls it could be a rude awakening to professional rugby for the promising Munster man. Cheika would only pick McCormack in the front row as a last resort and it confirms the belief that Healy is carrying a shoulder injury and Wright is not near full fitness. I expect Munster to dominate in the scrums but watching last weeks game against Cardiff they lost 30% of their own lineouts and didn't win one of the oppositions. Cullen is a lineout champion and expect him to cause O'Connell and O'Callaghan problems all day. Flannery's throwing has been poor for a season now and it would need a massive improvement to allow Munster to dominate their traditional set piece game. Overlooking internationals

Mentality is the last area of interest. Last year's corresponding fixture saw Leamy sin binned, Dowling lose the plot and his head and having a terrible game. Leinster can now play and defend extremely well without the ball and not push the game (sounds like another team????). Contepomi has calmed down and was not 'got at' by Munster. Alot of the newpapers interviews with Munster players are speaking of 'revenge' and getting stuck in. With Cullen, Jennings, Elsom, S. Horgan Leinster posses some very cute players and if I could I would like to have a bet on Mafi and Tipoki both getting yellows. Which ever teams holds their head will get at least 9 points extra from kicks and looking at last weeks game, Leinster gave away two kickables and Munster gave away four and have been consistently penalising themselves in the previous games.

Recommendation:- Leinster to win, 2pts @1.65, Leinster Half Time/Full Time, 1pt at 2.25