Magners League Weekend 24/10/08

Well its back to the Cider league after watching some of the Irish provinces guzzling in high quality in the larger cup.

The Braveheart's v Leinster

All the talk this week from Leinster camp has seen Cheika has been very pragmatic, pointing out that Leinster lose these games around this time of year and they can't let it happen again. Leinster are going in on excellent Heineken cup form however their Managers league form shows them as losing their last two games. However you would have to go back a long way to find out when Leinster lost three Magners league games in row. The important note from the last two games is that they are creating and taking their chances, something which didn't happen against Munster and Connacht.

Glasgow have been completely erratic this season, shipping just under an average of 20 points each game, but seem capable of scoring on occasions. Having any chinks in your defence is not ideal going against the Leinster backline. Even if Glasgow perform to their best the Leinster defence has still only shipped 5 tries in four games. Leinster are without O'Driscoll and gentle giany O'Kelly, but are replaced with Johnny 'Contraception' Sexton and the inform Devin 'High Tower' Toner. I was surprised with the conservative handicap of just two penalties or 6pts. If Leinster come out all guns blazing it could be 10-12 points victory.

Recommendation: Leinster -5.5pts @2.0 for 2pts Lost

Connacht v Edinburgh

Heading way out way west for an earlier kick off at the aptly named Sportsground where we'll see Connacht v Edinburgh. Connacht played two excellent games in a row up until their loss last week convincingly against London Irish. Connacht have always had a problem of form, because just a few injuries can knock them off their stride.

Edinburgh showed last week that they can upset the books and get good wins away from home against Castre. Surprisingly Edinburgh haven't won in Ireland since May 2006, however they have improved since Andy Robinson took over. Even more surprisingly for a Scottish team they do like to throw the ball around but haven't had that many weaker teams to exploit this against of late and I think a tired Connacht could be that team. Connacht have played 4 incredibly tough game in a row.

Connacht, seem to be improving since a terrible start of the season and are trying to play catch up and grab a H-Cup place off the Ulstars. Last week in poor conditions they were exposed by London Irish and if Edinburgh's Simon Webster gets a few chances he'll exploit them. Connacht will put up a brave first half and may be winning but ultimately may not make it past 60 mins.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -3.5pts @1.96 for 1pt on Betfair Won, Halftime/Fulltime - Connacht/Edinburgh 0.5pts @7.0. Lost

Ulster v Munster

Always a heated match and clearly with Leinster losing last night a chance for Munster to really build a big lead at the top of the cider league. Such is the confidence of people in Munster at the moment that they were matched at 1.1 on Betfair to win this game. However this was before the teams were announced they promptly drifted out to 1.5. McGahan has rested pretty much all his front liners and this is a Musnter 'B' team of the highest order, but can a full strength Ulster team put it up to them?

In their last few games their intensity has risen and defensive intensity has been minutely better. They have shipped big points against attacking teams however can this Munster team attack? In their back line they only have one class player at that is Warwick, he'll be key today because of the likely terrible conditions (65mph winds and rain). But looking else where you might have question marks, Hurley (2nd start of the season), Dowling (not creative), Horgan (worst winger in Ireland) and Murphy (still yet to find the form of two years ago). In the pack they have a completely different front five and I just feel they might not have the continuity. Interestingly Munsters worst results this seasonhave been in bad weather, Glasgow and Montabuan. With the weather predicted for tonight, it will most likely be a low scoring encounter. Only the Connacht game last night broke the overs market out 3 games in similar conditions but that is unsuprising as their defence has been attrocious.

Recommendations:- Ulster +5.5pts, 1pt @ 2.0 Won. Total Match points, under 37.5pts for 2 pts @ 1.7 Won

After weekend games current profit is €923.58 for the season so far.