Pint of Ken Cup Round Two

Heineken Cup - Round Two

This is really the biggest weekend of rugby so far this season for Irish provinces. Throughout the weekend they’ll be up against what should be their biggest rivals and challengers to getting a ticket to the next round. With Munster and Leinster both getting wins last week with questionable performances and Ulster losing comprehensively, all of the provinces need big performances.

Harlequins v Ulstars

Ulstars have had a torrid season with only one narrow win from six so far. After last week’s game Matt (The Face) Williams was happy with the aggression and hits they were making. If I were Matt I would be more concerned with the fact they don’t have a kicker who can get 60% of their attempts, and they’ve continued their terrible away form which had started last season. They can’t seem to build consistency and Williams has been chopping and changing their kicker all season with Schifcofske (out injured for this game), O’Connor and (Where's?)Wallace all taking charge of the kicking tee at some point.

Clearly confidence is an issue for this team, they have conceded on average of 20 points a game (32 points on average for away matches) and only scored an average of 7.5points away from Ravenhill. Against one of the most attacking teams in England it doesn’t bode well for Ulster. The Medicine woman's team came back strongly in the second half away from home against the Pimpernels last week and even with a 13.5 point handicap their attacking ambition will overcome a weak Ulster travelling defence who can’t take any chances that they are given.

Recommendation: – Harlequinns -15.5 for 3pts. Won

Leinster v Wasps

It’s an age old saying but you have to win your home games and if Leinster have ambitions of doing well this year this is a must win game for them. Wasps, although with a stuttering start to their season, put in an impressive three try haul against a mediocre Castre side.

Analysing their performances last week, both scored the majority of their points in the first half and hardly any in the second. This was ok for Leinster as they were away last week but for Wasps they can’t afford to be a one half team on the road. Leinster have only conceded six tries in six games, but do have a tendency to give away penalties. Wasps are the ultimate cup side, winning the Heineken Cup every year they have got out of their group and always perform in the must win games. However since their pack has lost their talisman Dallaglio they may lack their arrogant edge.

Wasps’ defence has been poor away from home shipping on average 23 points each game this season, expect this game to have tries as primtime O’Driscoll is finding form and cool hands Fitzgearld gets another chance in centre, if there is a nice price in the over’s market it would be a good punt.

Recommendation:- Leinster Halftime/Fulltime for 1pt Won, Total Match Points over 40.5pts for 1 pt Won

Sale v Munster

Last week Munster suffered from being expectant and over ambitious while Sale Sharks pulled out possibly the surprise result of round one. Their away victory against Clermont Auvergne, who had previously only lost one home game in thirty nine was impressive considering their limited playing style. It was very surprising considering Sale’s conservative nature of just grinding out results in the Premiership, where they only have a +3 for/against points tally. Crucially in last weekend’s game they never allowed Clermont to get any continuity to their game or build up on any possession. In terms of tactics, this game could be two teams facing each other in the mirror, both with the same game plan. You’d have to fancy the under’s in the match points markets as it will be a slow and patient game.

With Sale facing some selection problems, Andy 'the looks' Sheridan being only 50/50 and also losing Orsby to a citing, they won’t be going into this game full strength. Munster have doubts over Hokey Tipoki who would be a big loss as a game line breaker. It’s a difficult game to call as can be seen by the handicap difference of just 0.5pt. Ultimately last week we saw two polar performances from these teams but Munster have more scope to improve. I expect Munster to go back to their solid percentages games waiting for a break, Sale will do the same but might not have the class to execute them.

Recommendation: - Game points, under 40.5pts for 2 points Lost, Munster to win outright for 1 point Won.
If I were feeling rich and wanted quick bet I'd go for Munster to score the penalty ;)

Connacht v London Irish

Two massive performances in the past two weeks from the elephant in the IRFU board room. Beating Leinster and more impressively Dax away brings belief back to Bradley's men. Behind the scenes though Dax don't care about this competition and it was a very much a second string Leinster side with the off form Sexton playing the crucial number. They are coming against a serious inform team in the form of the exiles who scored 70 points last week and have beaten some of the top teams in the premiership.

Recommendation: - The Exiles - 7.5pt @1.9 for 3 points Won.