Only one stand out bet this friday night.
Ulster v Connacht:
While Bradley's side have for the first time stuck out a 1st string squad in an away game, they still have a terrible habit of conceding away from home, over 100 points in last two away games.
Ulster are on up. After a convincing 20-6 win against Munster (and it could have been more) before the break they looked like clicking. Their Islander winger could really be a great buy and speedster sides can tear apart Connacht (see the London Irish game) with Nagusa and McCrea possessing plenty of pace, Connacht could be in for trouble. Also Ulster only have league to play for and this is a 6pointer in terms of European qualification.
I'm going for Ulster in the handicap. They went into the break with better form but also looked at a turning point. Crucially they have had a friendly game during the break while Connacht's was cancelled.
Recommendation:- Ulster -13.5pts for 3pts at evens won & Ulster - 26.5pts for 0.5pts @ 4.2
won, all on Betfair of course! Scarlets v Munster
This is too close to call. While the 2nd string Munster side showed great passion against the AB's, they don't play well after the November breaks when the 1st string return. This was the case in '06 and '05 season (07 doesn't count because no break as Nov internationals didn't happen).
If they had a were closer to zero I'd go for them as Scarlets are missing five first teamers as Wales are playing tomorrow.
If you are dying for a bet, I'd go for under's just on the hunch both teams are focused more on next weeks game.
Leinster v Dragons
Leinster go into this game with plenty of injuries (10 in fact) key ones being Van Der Linde, Contepomi, Cullen. Dragons have a few injuries but have a solid in uninspiring back line who last time played together held Bath to 13-9 in the H-Cup. However their last game was 27 days ago.
Crucially as was seen last night, friendlies during the Autumn break is key, one major advantage in the fact that are Leinster 'A' players replacing the injured front liners are those that have played 2 games in the last two weeks. Players like O'Brien, Healy and even some of the first 15 who weren't on the International squad have been ticking over with 3 Leinster 'A' games. McFadden who starts at centre appearently greatly impressing in those games. He looked very promising last year but got a bad knee injury and never got a chance by the time he returned.
While I don't expect a 30-40 point victory, like the last time Dragons were here, if you look at all the other Welsh teams last night they were clearly rusty. Dragons aren't as bad as last year but with almost 4 weeks without a competitive game I don't think they'll be fully up for this Munster win game for Leinster.
Recommendation:- Leinster - 18.5pts for 1.5pts @2.1 on Betfair. LostIf you have a Bet365 account take advantage of the 1.71 on offer for the second half being the highest scoring half for 1pt lost.
Currently profit: €1110.58 (11.1058 pts) and a 22.66% ROI
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