Heineken Cup Tips & Betting Round 5

Current Profit (after commission): 1395.08 or 13.95 pts. 17.68% ROI.

Well I'll keep this short (if that is possible) as I'm over following the boys in blue. Some fantastic games to watch this weekend but tight enough on the betting.

London Irish v Connacht

Bradley has been targeting games very successfully and his team have only got better at it as the season has gone. However they are still poor away from home and the twelve changes he has made to the team that played Scarlets at home shows he is willing to have damage limitation and focus on getting points against Dax next weekend.

London Irish have a strong team out featuring 12 internationals and experienced Mike Catt at 10. Connacht have capitulated against good attacking side and their defence opens up. London Irish (unlike Leinster last time) are a very attacking team and we should see them wrap this game up early.

Recommendation: London Irish -23.5pt @1.9 for 1.5pts on Betfair Won.

Its a pity Connacht won't be sending over there best player




Munster v Sale

Sale are going into this game after beating London Irish last week and winning like they were trying to play some ball. Munster last week were pretty horrible in the first 30mins and looked all over the place but then they turned it on against Ospreys and got an impressive away win. Granted it was a second choice front row but they dominated the scrum, break and POC played amazing.

I think the price is too short on the 1.34 for a home win. But Munster halftime/fulltime looks great at 1.7. They'll bring their A game, control it nicely picking up points and make Sale play which few Premiership teams can under severe pressure. I've just rung a friend who is outside the ground and the predicted rain has not appeared and doesn't look like its going to. I was looking at the unders on two fronts, bad weather and the intensity slowing down the game. Since the weather has gone against us, I'm shying away from the unders. There could be a few over zealous penalty offences. See video:-


Recommendation: Munster/Munster halftime/fulltime @ 1.7 on Betfair for 2points Won.


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Magners League 09/1 & 10/1

Well it was an interesting Christmas season with some big upsets and unfortunately the biggest upset for me in terms of betting. This week we look to make it back.

Leinster v Cardiff

Weather Update:- Quite windy all day, will make kicking difficult. Favours the unders

Last game for the weekend, seeing Leinster trying to catch up in the table. Even though they didn't play amazing last week, the game was destroyed by some terrible referring with needless penalties against Leinster and then some missing of forward passes to let Leinster in with their last try. Cardiff, last week are not in great form. Losing at home to the stuttering Ospreys who just can't find true ability. They aren't scoring many tries, none last week and only four in their last four games. Two were against the Dragons who leak tries.

Leinster drew against Cardiff after coming from behind at the start of the season and won the same fixture at the same time last year by seven points. Cardiff haven't kicked on this year and are missing Ben Blair the main kicking threat. Cardiff haven't got great results before Heineken Cup games losing badly to Glasgow before their big game against Biaritz. They have a massive game away to second in their group Gloucester next week and I just think there mind will be on that. True Leinster have a big game too, but they are at home and need to stick in a performance. Cardiff have three first choice players returning from injury itching for time on the pitch and I think that this could be just a little bit of run out for them. Dai Young has targeted games all season to good success and I think he may expect this game for sharpness and preparation for next week. Cheika is hampered by suspensions but to be honest O'Brien coming in for Jennings is going to be one of Leinster and Ireland's future big players. Blaney has plenty of experience. The pack does look better.

Interestingly in the betting PP's and Stanleys have the handicap at +6 while its +8 elsewhere. I think Leinster might not get a bonus point victory but could get to their 28 point average at home this season. The Blues have only got big scores against defensively weak teams, which has been Leinster's one shining light this season. They've got a stronger pack and first choice backline, barring my obvious favouritism for Leinster I think PP's have got it wrong today. I'm only 2km's from the ground at it is windy and might have showers, this could effect the game in breaking any overs.

Recommendation: Leinster - 6pts (on PP's) for 2pts @1.91, (Wait till you see pics of the game or email me) total points back the under's 39.5 @2.0 (Betfair) or 38pts for 2.1 on Bill Hill for 1pt.

Connacht v Scarlets

Connacht are on the up, they've beaten both Munster and Leinster at home this season and put in another respectable performance in the RDS last weekend. Scarlets last week started amazing, were 10 points up after 10 mins and after a knock on for a certain try they gave up and collapsed and could barely hold off a Dragons fightback.

Connacht are playing well but not scoring tries. They scored one try in three Magners league games. They've been scoring from packs who give away penalties. Scarlets have only given away 5 kicked penalties in the last 3 games. Watching them last week, they don't attempt to counter ruck, throw men on the floor or basically break the rules. This is where Connacht are scoring from. Scarlets are also missing their best point scoring player from last week Jones (on the Bench) and Mark Jones, one of the best backs so it might be hard for them to score tries.

I think it will be hard for Connacht after 3 tough games in a row, however they have been rotating players for their home games and have almost a full strength back line for what should be an excellent defence.

Recommendation:- Back the unders 36.5pts @2.0 for 1.5pts on Betfair or Bet365 Won

Edinburgh v Ulster

Ulster played brilliantly last week and showed that if you run and play attacking ball against Munster at the moment you'll get the points. Edinburgh played pretty poor last week and were lucky to score a early freak try and the final score flattered them.

Edinburgh go into this game with three players starting their first game and a further three changes from last week. Missing Nick De Luca and Pattison really effects their ability to run with speed, losing Ross Rennie for the season doesn't help either. Ulster have to make 4 changes from their super performance however one is captain Best coming back in for Brady, McCrea starting who played brilliant last week and Pollock who replaced Dawson in that game and is pushing for Ireland call up.

Ulster did beat a weakened Munster last week but it was in one of the hardest places to go and win and boy did they do it in style. Murrayfield is probably the polar opposite in terms of atmosphere to Thomand but but equally hard to win at. If and it is a sizable if, Ulster can play to the level they did last week this should be an easy game for them. To be honest to see any team with a +4.5 handicap going to play Edinburgh after beating Munster away by twenty six points the previous week is strange. If this becomes an open game I definitely think Ulster can win. The negative against them is they are a young team and young teams can be brilliant, but inconsistent. I think Williams's boys could continue their form, but if they don't I still can't see Edinburgh running riot.

Recommendation: Ulster -7.5pts @ 5.5 for 0.5pts Lost, Ulster + 4.5 @2.1 for 1pt Won

Ospreys v Munster


Brief on this one. You've got two teams going into big games next week and Munster often don't perform in the league before a big H-Cup game. They are missing three of their most important backs for this season, ROG, Topoki (last time the played well was with him fit) and Earls. They are reinforced with Paul O'Connell, Wallace and Leamy in the pack but the two of them are far from match sharp. Apparently a bug has been going around the team too. Ospreys are far from full strength as well, but still have a strong enough backline and strong home form going with them.

Last time Ospreys lost at home was back in Nov 2007 and the last 8 encounters by the sides have gone to the home team. With the H-Cup looming and weakened teams this is a tough to call, but Munster have not been playing well lately but will at some stage come good, a small bet on Ospreys could prove value.

Recommendation: Ospreys Halftime/Fulltime @2.52 for 0.5pt. Lost

Irish Rugby Provincial Festive Season Review

Current Profit: €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

So how was it for you?

Well it was a pleasantly entertaining festive period of Irish rugby with some great battles and an epic victory by Ulster to finish it off. So how are each of the provinces doing after the festive action and first half of the season?

Ulster: "I don't talk to referees. It's like complaining to your mother-in-law about your wife. It doesn't get you too far." - Matt Williams after defeat to Harlequins.

I always liked Williams, Leinster played some of their best rugby under him and he seems to be one of the good guys who sticks to viewpoints and beliefs. When he arrived he had to shovel a lot of shit out the door and he let his younger players play. They made a lot of mistakes up until November but they kept trying to play and now its paying off, with a double over Munster. Against Leinster they were player a tougher defensive team and errors cost them badly. They are an improving side and expect plenty of their players to push into the Irish team.

• Cheeky punt: If they continue their progression at the speed they are a cheeky punt on them to win the league as they effectively have nothing left to play for is worth a trade. Currently best price 100/1 on Stan James and bet direct.
• Player to watch: Ian Humphries, should be 1st choice Ireland player, offers so much more than the ageing predictable incumbent.

Leinster: "A lot done, more to do"

Being a Leinster follower its hard to know what to think, they blew bonus points and a victory away to Castre but go out and beat two teams relatively comfortably who beat Munster. There is no doubt about it, they are playing poor but they are winning against what seem to be form teams in Magners league. As for the H-Cup they are coming up against another Wasps team that might just be starting a comeback. I watched them two or three weeks ago and thought an Italian team would beat Wasps in Twickenham, I don't think they can improve too much, but the home game against Quinns tomorrow (4/1/08) will tell. With Cardiff this weekend I think they might start to click with hopefully BOD, Cullen and a rested Van Der Linde back in action. Remember their ten Isa, has only started three games for Leinster at that position.

• Cheeky punt: The 5/1 available on one exchange for Leinster to win Magners is ridiculous, definitely a worth punt, especially if H-Cup campaign goes badly.
• Player to watch: Sean O'Brien, already putting pressure on Jennings and forcing himself onto the team and Kearney playing FB now was immense against Connacht.

Connacht: "We'll fight them on the beaches....."

I said at the start of the year I expected them to perform better with the influx of quality young players. They have stuttered but this Christmas could be a coming of age for the province. Strangely the credit crunch could help them as players of the same ilk or position of Duffy, Frank Murphy and Johnny O'Connor, might find the lure of the euro or redundancy from other clubs an incentive to head way out west. They beat Munster with some excellent kicking and kept it very competitive against Leinster when some decision went against them. What they really need to do now is have a good run in the Challenge Cup and avoid bottom of the league.

• Cheeky punt: I said at the start of the season, back Connacht to win every home game. If you did so you'd be a wealthy man with Leinster and Munster being 1.1 and 1.12 shots over turned this season.
• Player to watch: Its obvious to say Keatley but I think the consistency of Frank Murphy is really helping them stay in games. With Reddan off form he could get a call up for 6 nations.

Munster: "Everyone wants to beat us because were Champions, Alex Ferguson".

Unfortunately Alex is right and everyone raises their game to Munster. They are going through a poor run since before Christmas, winning only one in their last 4 and the last two games have been a disaster. That said they have not had full strength squads. However with Topoki and O'Gara looking likely to be out for a few weeks things aren't getting any better. Their style of play seems to be their problem. They are trying to push it, not control it, not the Munster way. Sure Howlett, Topoki and Warwick come from a culture of attacking offloading, POC, Buckley, D. Ryan, Hurley, Dowling, O'Gara don't. They have committed more errors in the last two games than probably the whole of the second half of last season. Amazingly before Christmas they were matched at 1.63 to win Magners league, crazy stuff. Their squad depth is weak and they aren't playing well and aren't winning. Of course they'll come back but the Magners league could take a back seat. With a tough game against Sale in two weeks laying Munster might become a interesting tactic.

• Cheeky punt: Lay Munster to win H-Cup they'll probably get through to next round but could have a tough draw if they don't beat Sale which because of injuries could be tough.
• Player to watch: All eyes have to be on Warwick if O'Gara is out. He is class player who can break the game line, but they won't achieve much if you've got Barry Murphy and Lewis following him.

Happy punting in the New Year.