Magners League 09/1 & 10/1

Well it was an interesting Christmas season with some big upsets and unfortunately the biggest upset for me in terms of betting. This week we look to make it back.

Leinster v Cardiff

Weather Update:- Quite windy all day, will make kicking difficult. Favours the unders

Last game for the weekend, seeing Leinster trying to catch up in the table. Even though they didn't play amazing last week, the game was destroyed by some terrible referring with needless penalties against Leinster and then some missing of forward passes to let Leinster in with their last try. Cardiff, last week are not in great form. Losing at home to the stuttering Ospreys who just can't find true ability. They aren't scoring many tries, none last week and only four in their last four games. Two were against the Dragons who leak tries.

Leinster drew against Cardiff after coming from behind at the start of the season and won the same fixture at the same time last year by seven points. Cardiff haven't kicked on this year and are missing Ben Blair the main kicking threat. Cardiff haven't got great results before Heineken Cup games losing badly to Glasgow before their big game against Biaritz. They have a massive game away to second in their group Gloucester next week and I just think there mind will be on that. True Leinster have a big game too, but they are at home and need to stick in a performance. Cardiff have three first choice players returning from injury itching for time on the pitch and I think that this could be just a little bit of run out for them. Dai Young has targeted games all season to good success and I think he may expect this game for sharpness and preparation for next week. Cheika is hampered by suspensions but to be honest O'Brien coming in for Jennings is going to be one of Leinster and Ireland's future big players. Blaney has plenty of experience. The pack does look better.

Interestingly in the betting PP's and Stanleys have the handicap at +6 while its +8 elsewhere. I think Leinster might not get a bonus point victory but could get to their 28 point average at home this season. The Blues have only got big scores against defensively weak teams, which has been Leinster's one shining light this season. They've got a stronger pack and first choice backline, barring my obvious favouritism for Leinster I think PP's have got it wrong today. I'm only 2km's from the ground at it is windy and might have showers, this could effect the game in breaking any overs.

Recommendation: Leinster - 6pts (on PP's) for 2pts @1.91, (Wait till you see pics of the game or email me) total points back the under's 39.5 @2.0 (Betfair) or 38pts for 2.1 on Bill Hill for 1pt.

Connacht v Scarlets

Connacht are on the up, they've beaten both Munster and Leinster at home this season and put in another respectable performance in the RDS last weekend. Scarlets last week started amazing, were 10 points up after 10 mins and after a knock on for a certain try they gave up and collapsed and could barely hold off a Dragons fightback.

Connacht are playing well but not scoring tries. They scored one try in three Magners league games. They've been scoring from packs who give away penalties. Scarlets have only given away 5 kicked penalties in the last 3 games. Watching them last week, they don't attempt to counter ruck, throw men on the floor or basically break the rules. This is where Connacht are scoring from. Scarlets are also missing their best point scoring player from last week Jones (on the Bench) and Mark Jones, one of the best backs so it might be hard for them to score tries.

I think it will be hard for Connacht after 3 tough games in a row, however they have been rotating players for their home games and have almost a full strength back line for what should be an excellent defence.

Recommendation:- Back the unders 36.5pts @2.0 for 1.5pts on Betfair or Bet365 Won

Edinburgh v Ulster

Ulster played brilliantly last week and showed that if you run and play attacking ball against Munster at the moment you'll get the points. Edinburgh played pretty poor last week and were lucky to score a early freak try and the final score flattered them.

Edinburgh go into this game with three players starting their first game and a further three changes from last week. Missing Nick De Luca and Pattison really effects their ability to run with speed, losing Ross Rennie for the season doesn't help either. Ulster have to make 4 changes from their super performance however one is captain Best coming back in for Brady, McCrea starting who played brilliant last week and Pollock who replaced Dawson in that game and is pushing for Ireland call up.

Ulster did beat a weakened Munster last week but it was in one of the hardest places to go and win and boy did they do it in style. Murrayfield is probably the polar opposite in terms of atmosphere to Thomand but but equally hard to win at. If and it is a sizable if, Ulster can play to the level they did last week this should be an easy game for them. To be honest to see any team with a +4.5 handicap going to play Edinburgh after beating Munster away by twenty six points the previous week is strange. If this becomes an open game I definitely think Ulster can win. The negative against them is they are a young team and young teams can be brilliant, but inconsistent. I think Williams's boys could continue their form, but if they don't I still can't see Edinburgh running riot.

Recommendation: Ulster -7.5pts @ 5.5 for 0.5pts Lost, Ulster + 4.5 @2.1 for 1pt Won

Ospreys v Munster


Brief on this one. You've got two teams going into big games next week and Munster often don't perform in the league before a big H-Cup game. They are missing three of their most important backs for this season, ROG, Topoki (last time the played well was with him fit) and Earls. They are reinforced with Paul O'Connell, Wallace and Leamy in the pack but the two of them are far from match sharp. Apparently a bug has been going around the team too. Ospreys are far from full strength as well, but still have a strong enough backline and strong home form going with them.

Last time Ospreys lost at home was back in Nov 2007 and the last 8 encounters by the sides have gone to the home team. With the H-Cup looming and weakened teams this is a tough to call, but Munster have not been playing well lately but will at some stage come good, a small bet on Ospreys could prove value.

Recommendation: Ospreys Halftime/Fulltime @2.52 for 0.5pt. Lost