Irish Rugby Provincial Festive Season Review

Current Profit: €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

So how was it for you?

Well it was a pleasantly entertaining festive period of Irish rugby with some great battles and an epic victory by Ulster to finish it off. So how are each of the provinces doing after the festive action and first half of the season?

Ulster: "I don't talk to referees. It's like complaining to your mother-in-law about your wife. It doesn't get you too far." - Matt Williams after defeat to Harlequins.

I always liked Williams, Leinster played some of their best rugby under him and he seems to be one of the good guys who sticks to viewpoints and beliefs. When he arrived he had to shovel a lot of shit out the door and he let his younger players play. They made a lot of mistakes up until November but they kept trying to play and now its paying off, with a double over Munster. Against Leinster they were player a tougher defensive team and errors cost them badly. They are an improving side and expect plenty of their players to push into the Irish team.

• Cheeky punt: If they continue their progression at the speed they are a cheeky punt on them to win the league as they effectively have nothing left to play for is worth a trade. Currently best price 100/1 on Stan James and bet direct.
• Player to watch: Ian Humphries, should be 1st choice Ireland player, offers so much more than the ageing predictable incumbent.

Leinster: "A lot done, more to do"

Being a Leinster follower its hard to know what to think, they blew bonus points and a victory away to Castre but go out and beat two teams relatively comfortably who beat Munster. There is no doubt about it, they are playing poor but they are winning against what seem to be form teams in Magners league. As for the H-Cup they are coming up against another Wasps team that might just be starting a comeback. I watched them two or three weeks ago and thought an Italian team would beat Wasps in Twickenham, I don't think they can improve too much, but the home game against Quinns tomorrow (4/1/08) will tell. With Cardiff this weekend I think they might start to click with hopefully BOD, Cullen and a rested Van Der Linde back in action. Remember their ten Isa, has only started three games for Leinster at that position.

• Cheeky punt: The 5/1 available on one exchange for Leinster to win Magners is ridiculous, definitely a worth punt, especially if H-Cup campaign goes badly.
• Player to watch: Sean O'Brien, already putting pressure on Jennings and forcing himself onto the team and Kearney playing FB now was immense against Connacht.

Connacht: "We'll fight them on the beaches....."

I said at the start of the year I expected them to perform better with the influx of quality young players. They have stuttered but this Christmas could be a coming of age for the province. Strangely the credit crunch could help them as players of the same ilk or position of Duffy, Frank Murphy and Johnny O'Connor, might find the lure of the euro or redundancy from other clubs an incentive to head way out west. They beat Munster with some excellent kicking and kept it very competitive against Leinster when some decision went against them. What they really need to do now is have a good run in the Challenge Cup and avoid bottom of the league.

• Cheeky punt: I said at the start of the season, back Connacht to win every home game. If you did so you'd be a wealthy man with Leinster and Munster being 1.1 and 1.12 shots over turned this season.
• Player to watch: Its obvious to say Keatley but I think the consistency of Frank Murphy is really helping them stay in games. With Reddan off form he could get a call up for 6 nations.

Munster: "Everyone wants to beat us because were Champions, Alex Ferguson".

Unfortunately Alex is right and everyone raises their game to Munster. They are going through a poor run since before Christmas, winning only one in their last 4 and the last two games have been a disaster. That said they have not had full strength squads. However with Topoki and O'Gara looking likely to be out for a few weeks things aren't getting any better. Their style of play seems to be their problem. They are trying to push it, not control it, not the Munster way. Sure Howlett, Topoki and Warwick come from a culture of attacking offloading, POC, Buckley, D. Ryan, Hurley, Dowling, O'Gara don't. They have committed more errors in the last two games than probably the whole of the second half of last season. Amazingly before Christmas they were matched at 1.63 to win Magners league, crazy stuff. Their squad depth is weak and they aren't playing well and aren't winning. Of course they'll come back but the Magners league could take a back seat. With a tough game against Sale in two weeks laying Munster might become a interesting tactic.

• Cheeky punt: Lay Munster to win H-Cup they'll probably get through to next round but could have a tough draw if they don't beat Sale which because of injuries could be tough.
• Player to watch: All eyes have to be on Warwick if O'Gara is out. He is class player who can break the game line, but they won't achieve much if you've got Barry Murphy and Lewis following him.

Happy punting in the New Year.