New Years Fixtures 31st - Jan 3rd

Cardiff vs Ospreys (Hairspreys)

When these two teams met at the beginning of the season, Cardiff were playing their 2nd game in four or five days and had a complete 2nd string squad out and lost by 40pts plus. In recent games the Hairspreys have flattered to deceive and haven't lived up to their hype but could be about to turn. They haven't been putting big scores against any decent sides, as was show by them not making the handicap against Scarlets at home.

Cardiff themselves are a solid team, with scoring ability when they have the power up front and with their strongest backline can score points. Cardiff have been rotating players in the past week for this game which they no doubt want to target as interest. Nicky Robinson is back in at 10, with Sweeney going to the bench. The Ospreys have dropped James Hook, who to be honest missed a few kicks last week and doesn't look in great form. Also Henson has been moved to 15 to accomadate his power running and Lee Byrne is in at wing.

Its going to be a tough game to call with, Cardiff on a 3.5pt handicap. I would say they'll probably make it however if the Ospreys can click (which they didn't last week but were close) could win and they look an attractive price. Interestingly looking at the scoring potential of both these teams, Cardiff on average over the last 6 games have scored 29 pts per game (against some good defensive sides), while Ospreys have scored on average 16points per game away from home (scoring points against good home opposition, Edinburgh & London Irish. With Welsh rugby all about attacking open play, if you combine those figures you get 45points, from averages would state that the overs look good. Last years game saw a scoreline total of 32 points however it was the first game of the season and Ospreys were missing their internationals. Two years ago at the same time of year its was a 54 points game.

Recommendation: Over 40.5pts @2.1 for 2 pts Lost& Ospreys to win @2.4 for 0.5pts. Won

Scarlets v Dragons

The Dragons have been a significantly better team this season then last year and have taken some big scalps (beating Ospreys two weeks ago) and keeping scores respectable (considering their whipping boy status last year). However I think that they are effectively about to hit a bad run of form, not in games lost (they've only won two since October) but in points difference, they are due a bad beat.

Scarlets on the other side have had an average to poor season and it took them three games to get a win in their new season but now I think they might have turned a corner, they are getting results and confidence. They only conceded a late try to the Ospreys last week to lose 20-6 (and they beat the handicap of 18.5, predicted here) and the previous week they played well against a slightly weakened Cardiff and had a comfortable 14 points win . They have three internationals back for this game with Stephen Jones (his boot is worth at least 9 points) coming back after a rest and I think they could find form to get a score against the Dragons. I can't get over how the handicap is only 9 points with some bookies (7pts early doors with StanJ) when they beat Cardiff two weeks ago easily. I think it should be 13-14. Dragons concede points away from home and lose, this handicap is too short.

Recommendation:- Scarlets to win - 7pts @1.91 (on Stanjames) for 3 points @ 1.91 Lost & Scarlets -14pts @2.75 (Paddy Power) for 1 point Lost.

Leinster v Connacht

Connacht come into this game on the back of another fantastic home win against Munster where they showed some great grit and excellent desire to keep a sloppy Munster from gaining any momentum. However today they are missing some key players from last weeks game, Cronin their 1 st choice prop and Irish international Gavin Duffy. For a squad as thread bare as this, it is hard to handle.

Leinster meanwhile have selected the best squad available (late fitness test on a stuttering B O'D), with Isa in at 10 which makes a big difference in terms of running and attacking ability compared to Sexton. He could possibly open up an inexpierenced 10 & centre partnership in Connacht. Also Kearney is in at full back adding more attacking and kicking ability than Dempsey.

Connacht have a good habit of playing well against their provinical brethren, however they also have a habit of playing out of their skin one week and then disastriously the next. Also if the team they meet after a good game is attacking and strong running it turns out a disaster (see London Irish and Ulster result). I don't think Leinster are as go forward or attacking as those however they'll take their chances. The handicap in this game is Leinster -20.5 on Betfair which I think is just about right, Boyles and Paddy's offering -19 @ 1.8 which is probably worth a small punt. However considering Leinster are so strong defensively this year I don't think they'll leak many tries so it could just be a four try bonus point game for them. I can't see Leinster racking up 6-7 tries for a 40 point score, or Connacht getting a sneaky try or two.

Recommendation:- Leinster -19pts for 1pt on Paddy power Lost@1.8 & Under 45.5pts on Betfair for 1pt @ 1.95 Won

Current Profit:- €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.