Friday, December 26, 2008

Festive Season Bets Games - St. Stephen's Day-28th

Alright, we are back in action for the final few games in the Magner's league this season.

Dragon's vs. Cardiff -

The weaker teams in the Magners League have been improving all season as can be seen by Glasgow lying third and Dragon's beating Osprey's at home last week. I watched the second half of this game last week and the one thing that really impressed me was the never say die attitude of Dragon's and how they were able to put it up to their hair gelled Welsh cousins. This game is another massive grudge match and I think Dragon's are best equipped to take the battle to a tough yet uninspiring Cardiff team.

The Blues haven't won away from home since last May and they've only beaten the Dragons from their last 8 matches against Welsh teams. Unfortunately for the Dragon's they have only won one in the last six games against the Blues. However they really have turned a corner and improved their defence this season. It will be a tough game but I think that Dragons will be able to cross the line easier than Cardiff and should take a big scalp.


Osprey's vs Scarlets

It is a little surprising to see such a big handicap (17.5pts) in this game. There is no doubt that the Osprey's are a quality side and when you see the backline they are putting out tomorrow it looks pure international class. However that international form has not fallen into the Osprey's league form. The Ospreys have lost three of their last four in the league, but have won their last six at the Liberty Stadium in all competitions. If you ignore the H-Cup matches against whipping boys Treviso, they have only once come close to a 18 point victory, beating Worcester at home in the EDF by 15, since beating a shocking Ulster 43-0 in September.

Scarlets have been poor all season however they haven't been shipping massive defeats, the worst being away to Stade in H-Cup game. This is a derby and after winning last week against a weakened Cardiff they still won and are on a bit of revival.

I find it hard to believe that the Osprey's will suddenly be able to flick on a switch and beat a team like Scarlets by 18 points, who even if they are playing bad, always keep the score competitive and Jones will always take his penalties.

Recommendation:- Scarlets +17.5pts for 2 points @ 2.1, Won Scarlets +7.5pts for 0.5pts @ 3.75 Loss

Currently in Profit: €1642 or 27.83% return on investment.



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