6 Nations Round 2

It's been a busy week pondering and reviewing last weeks disappointing games. With Ireland and France I personally saw two teams win their games in 30 mins and then decide not to show their main rivals anything for today's game. For the other game, well England apparently won but in my view Wales lost and it just so happened their were white shirts in front of them, England didn't do anything to deserve a win.

France v Ireland

Bastareaud, Bastareaud, Bastareaud. The media boy for the week after swatting some Scottish centres away and being 'unstopable'. Personally I think he is more damaging to the team who play with him than a team who can play at him. He allowed Scotland to break the line plenty of times by running up un-flanked from France's blitz defence. Most importantly France were trying to get this right because they know it's one of Ireland's weaknesses against such a defence. He could be as much of a liabilty as wrecking ball to Ireland. Also, I think his opposite centres know how to tackle and tackle hard.

Ireland last week showed they had moves for 20-30mins and then shut up shop, at least we know it's there. The scrum was excellent, Cullen helped POC destory the Italian line-out and Ferris, albeit recovering from injury, will add more to put pressure on the excellent French back row.

The fact is this is the championship decider and it's a pity the powers that be has put it so early in the calendar. I suppose the French & Italian tourist boards must bribe the officals so that they always have a home nation visiting them on Valentine's weekend. This will be a great game, possibly dominated more by power and determination than finesse which will play in Ireland's hands. Ireland go to Paris today with their best ever team in decades with the best coaching ticket they've had and a plus six handicap. You can't say this is the greatest French side, I'm not a fan of Trin-Duc yet and Scotland exposed plenty of holes in their backline and either side of rucks.

With all the talk of a new breed of French players and their superior power and skill, I think they have forgotten about a guy who showed up on the scene 10 years ago in this same fixture, he might have an impact today:





Recommendation: Ireland +6 at evens for one point with VC.

6 Nations Week 1

I've said in an earlier posting I'm going to take things easy at the start of the tournament because strange things happen every year, so baby steps for Saturday's games.

Ireland v Italy

Could Italy be one of those strange things, wound up by Magners League exclusion, not getting a fair crack at the whip and looking to put behind them what was a poor season last year. Thought, I don't think Italy are going to flick the switch and stop being crap however they couldn't be as bad as last year, can they? Parisse is out, they've a new 10 who I don't know much about and they are probably 4/1 for a back to score a try, throughout the tournament. They'll always be competitive upfront and you can't see that stopping with easy targets of Healy and Hayes and will have a strong tight five.

Looking at last years result of 9-38 you have to think the -20 at home for Ireland is perfectly obtainable. That result disguises what was an decidedly average performance from Ireland where they only just scored their first intercept try, followed by another one just before the half time whistle. Italy were six nil up at one stage and Ireland didn't score when they had a man sin binned after one minute.

As great as it look last season Ireland did play quite a patient game and used their experience, preparation and intensity to win every game. If they can apply a stronger attacking edge they will make this handicap. I was going to leave this game alone but after watching the A game tonight I'm more confident that Kidney is asking his players to start games properly and mix the point of attack.

Recommendation: Ireland -20 for 1 point at evens with Stan James/Bet Fred.

England v Wales

Naming the two sides for this fixtures has become something akin to musical chairs. Firstly the merry go around of the Byrnes appeal, then Tom Rees injured, Haskell a maybe, Gethin out, Flutey out. Hopefully the teams will be somewhat similar to the ones I've been looking at for the past half hour when they kick off at 17.30, but I'm sure someone will trip on their shoe lace for the captains run.

One thing that won't be changing in my opinion is Martin Johnson's approach to this game. I'm not his biggest fan in fact I don't think many are, but selecting Toby Flood and then mentioning he has 'good kicking and defensive game' speaks volumes for what England are going to try and do. Reel it right back in Johnny from your statement a month ago out an bold game approach. Expect Johnny W to sit back and play the percentages. As quality a player as he is. his style hasn't evolved over the past 5 years and blitz defences negate his stand off, sitting deep approach which once suited his left boot.

Wales have their critics too and plenty of questions to answer. Personally I think they won the worst the grand slam in the past while. Looking at their clubs performances this year and individual player performance they are playing ok, marginally better than last year. In terms of selections if I was a Welsh supporter I wouldn't like to see Hook playing 13 a quite unfamiliar position for him.

So the big question comes down to price, looking at it England are way to short, at 1.5 with some bookies, if only I could lay that. Sure they have home advantage, haven't lost two games in a row in Twickenham to the Welsh for years but you couldn't trust them. The November internationals identified a lot of problems for both teams but I think that Wales have a much better chance of improving quicker than England. If their offloading game returns the English backlines' defensive capabilities don't inspire me.

There are a lot of if's and buts. The stats are against Wales to win but England, from being in a good position on Wednesday, are now suddenly looking worried without Flutey. They'll dominate in the scrum but that won't win them the match.

Recommendation: Wales +5 at evens for one point with Victor Chandler

Ireland A v Scotland A

Ireland A v Scotland A

Just a quick preview before this game kicks off (available on RTE.ie or BBC Northern Ireland online if your interested).

Two strong squads for both teams. Blair, Danelli, Murray for Scotland and Horan, Humphreys and a great back row for Ireland.

Scotland A have sprung a suprise before whacking the Ireland A's last year but I'm going to have to side with Ireland A. I'm refusing to call them there new stupid name however. The handicap of -6 is about right and I could see Ireland sneaking it as they have the advantage of playing a game together last week.

However on inspection of the odds a cracking bet for a team who held possession well last week and only lost out by rusty errors and some wierd selections the Ireland/Ireland halftime/fulltime result looks good.

Recommendation: Ireland/Ireland HT/FT at evens for 2pts with William Hill. WON

6 Nations Outright

Ah Spring terrestrial TV rugby, nothing like it to make everyone egg chasing experts.

This year the 6 nations is looking like its going to be very interesting with Ireland playing two tough away games and some of the other teams looking to improve after a dreadful November internationals. First a quick team preview:

Ireland (3.5 to win outright)
A full calendar year without defeat, actual competition at ten, the strongest attacking and defensively organised backline in the northern hemisphere. Sure it can only get better right? Grand slam wins don't come in two's (just ask Wales) and with tough away games I think the slam is out of the question. The front row is clearly an issue as Hayes is not the saviour he once was or that fit, Healy still lacks international experience after bursting onto the scene and our likely hookers haven't got 6 games between them this season! All being said in last years tournament they had only 7 out of 400 rucks turned over on them and retained possession the most. Tight, efficient, brilliant defensively, an ability to handle the kicking game but they just need to learn to attack a little more away from home. Will that be enough though for a win in Paris?

France (2.66 to win outright)
Do you trust them, seriously do you? I trust the players more than the coach. However the French game has been sucked of some of it's flair this year. Apparently the Top14 has the lowest try rate of any league in Europe, however just look at how many teams they have in the H-Cup quarter finals. Paris will be a fortress but a tricky trip to Murrayfield on Sunday will be a test of them jelling as a team. It's a cliche to say it but if they want to they could destroy most teams, however they probably won't and lose one important game.

Wales (6.5 to win outright)
Can Gatty get them back on track? Ospreys have looked a much better team since Christmas, players are starting to come back from injury but you have to think they won a weak grand slam two years ago. Stephen Jones is a quality club player, he can run a show but he is slightly one dimensional and predictable internationally. Perhaps Biggar might get some time to shine but with trips away to Twickenham and Dublin I don't think they're suddenly going to click after last years poor performance. Cooper their new scrum half is also going to be in for a shock.

England (the odds.... it doesn't matter they can't win)
Excuses, cliches, curtains they all cover something up. That 'something' is that Martin Johnson is not an international coach. They have poor direction both on and off the pitch and it's becoming embarrassing on some of his selections and announcements on what he wants his team to do. He stated they are now going to play an expansive game, sure Martin just flick the switch there and off you go. Picking Tait and Flutey doesn't mean you have an expansive game when Wilko is going to stand so far back when they get the ball they'll be smashed. There has to be an improvement from November and their one try (in fairness they were top tryscorers in this tournament last year), they'll have one big game in them but probably be unspectacular for the rest and they'll probably kick away all their chances.

Scotland
With Euan at mass on Sunday against France and issues at ten the Scots still maintain their optimism. Whilst Glasgow have been performing very well all season and they'll have a competitive pack you'd have to question whether the Evans and Lamont will be giving the right platform to score tries. Patterson will always keep them close but when push comes to shove they won't be able to get the tries they need. I expect they could take England at home but only if they are able to open up and have a free flowing game.

Italy
*****Holding Copy******Please return to this section after first game. I hope they won't be like last year, more of the 2008 vintage please Mr. Mallet.

What to bet on?

Well it's a case of what you could have had a bet on. William Hill had England to get the wooden spoon at 80/1. On Betfair 60's has been match so they can't claim an error and they still had a 108% book at that price. It's gone now though

An interesting market stuck up by Bluesquare is their 'to score a try anytime'. Riki Flutey opened up at 2.1 and Matthew Tait 2.83. I managed to get a little on but they've both shortened to 1.83 and 2.37 respectively. Personally I still think they are value. Flutey will get a try and England will score against Italy away and can't afford to experiment with new partnerships. I'd expect both Tait and Flutey to start most of the games barring injury and considering Flutey got 4 tries in last seasons tournament he should grab at least one. Preferably on Saturday so I can rest easy. It may seem like a contradiction in terms to say I was going to back England for a wooden spoon and then I back two English guys to score but they are good value.

What really is interesting comes three weeks down the line with England v Ireland. England start this weekend as favourites against Wales who at least will know what they want and can do. Paddy Power have kindly priced up Eng v Ireland already. Right now I would have Ireland as narrow favs and as shown in November internationals will probably peak closer to the end of the tournament as many of their players are fresh. Unless Paddy knows England are going to kick ass this weekend I'm surprised to see Ireland +2 for Twickenham. Sure we don't have the greatest record their, winning narrowly 4 years ago for triple crown and being beaten last time out quite comprehensively. Barring Ireland completely under performing this weekend and the next I don't see how anything but a sensational performance by England this weekend is going to stop this being a scratch game or Ireland as narrow favourites. England play Italy after Wales away and in that game they really have more to lose than to gain in relation to their performance and effecting their odds for the Ireland match. Get a nice position now.

I'll try and get a preview up on Friday for the weekend, I won't be going big this weekend as I didn't do too well last year. Baby steps....

Recommendations:

Riki Flutey to score any time during the tournament @ 1.83 for 2 points with Bluesquare.
Matthew Tait to score any time during the tournament @ 2.37 for 1 point with Bluesquare.
Ireland + 2 against England @1.91 for 2 points with Paddy Power.

One final note or more like question, would you back that either England, Wales, Scotland or Italy at 3.0 to win the tournament outright? Nope, me neither 1.5 on either Ireland and France looks good.