6 Nations Outright

Ah Spring terrestrial TV rugby, nothing like it to make everyone egg chasing experts.

This year the 6 nations is looking like its going to be very interesting with Ireland playing two tough away games and some of the other teams looking to improve after a dreadful November internationals. First a quick team preview:

Ireland (3.5 to win outright)
A full calendar year without defeat, actual competition at ten, the strongest attacking and defensively organised backline in the northern hemisphere. Sure it can only get better right? Grand slam wins don't come in two's (just ask Wales) and with tough away games I think the slam is out of the question. The front row is clearly an issue as Hayes is not the saviour he once was or that fit, Healy still lacks international experience after bursting onto the scene and our likely hookers haven't got 6 games between them this season! All being said in last years tournament they had only 7 out of 400 rucks turned over on them and retained possession the most. Tight, efficient, brilliant defensively, an ability to handle the kicking game but they just need to learn to attack a little more away from home. Will that be enough though for a win in Paris?

France (2.66 to win outright)
Do you trust them, seriously do you? I trust the players more than the coach. However the French game has been sucked of some of it's flair this year. Apparently the Top14 has the lowest try rate of any league in Europe, however just look at how many teams they have in the H-Cup quarter finals. Paris will be a fortress but a tricky trip to Murrayfield on Sunday will be a test of them jelling as a team. It's a cliche to say it but if they want to they could destroy most teams, however they probably won't and lose one important game.

Wales (6.5 to win outright)
Can Gatty get them back on track? Ospreys have looked a much better team since Christmas, players are starting to come back from injury but you have to think they won a weak grand slam two years ago. Stephen Jones is a quality club player, he can run a show but he is slightly one dimensional and predictable internationally. Perhaps Biggar might get some time to shine but with trips away to Twickenham and Dublin I don't think they're suddenly going to click after last years poor performance. Cooper their new scrum half is also going to be in for a shock.

England (the odds.... it doesn't matter they can't win)
Excuses, cliches, curtains they all cover something up. That 'something' is that Martin Johnson is not an international coach. They have poor direction both on and off the pitch and it's becoming embarrassing on some of his selections and announcements on what he wants his team to do. He stated they are now going to play an expansive game, sure Martin just flick the switch there and off you go. Picking Tait and Flutey doesn't mean you have an expansive game when Wilko is going to stand so far back when they get the ball they'll be smashed. There has to be an improvement from November and their one try (in fairness they were top tryscorers in this tournament last year), they'll have one big game in them but probably be unspectacular for the rest and they'll probably kick away all their chances.

Scotland
With Euan at mass on Sunday against France and issues at ten the Scots still maintain their optimism. Whilst Glasgow have been performing very well all season and they'll have a competitive pack you'd have to question whether the Evans and Lamont will be giving the right platform to score tries. Patterson will always keep them close but when push comes to shove they won't be able to get the tries they need. I expect they could take England at home but only if they are able to open up and have a free flowing game.

Italy
*****Holding Copy******Please return to this section after first game. I hope they won't be like last year, more of the 2008 vintage please Mr. Mallet.

What to bet on?

Well it's a case of what you could have had a bet on. William Hill had England to get the wooden spoon at 80/1. On Betfair 60's has been match so they can't claim an error and they still had a 108% book at that price. It's gone now though

An interesting market stuck up by Bluesquare is their 'to score a try anytime'. Riki Flutey opened up at 2.1 and Matthew Tait 2.83. I managed to get a little on but they've both shortened to 1.83 and 2.37 respectively. Personally I still think they are value. Flutey will get a try and England will score against Italy away and can't afford to experiment with new partnerships. I'd expect both Tait and Flutey to start most of the games barring injury and considering Flutey got 4 tries in last seasons tournament he should grab at least one. Preferably on Saturday so I can rest easy. It may seem like a contradiction in terms to say I was going to back England for a wooden spoon and then I back two English guys to score but they are good value.

What really is interesting comes three weeks down the line with England v Ireland. England start this weekend as favourites against Wales who at least will know what they want and can do. Paddy Power have kindly priced up Eng v Ireland already. Right now I would have Ireland as narrow favs and as shown in November internationals will probably peak closer to the end of the tournament as many of their players are fresh. Unless Paddy knows England are going to kick ass this weekend I'm surprised to see Ireland +2 for Twickenham. Sure we don't have the greatest record their, winning narrowly 4 years ago for triple crown and being beaten last time out quite comprehensively. Barring Ireland completely under performing this weekend and the next I don't see how anything but a sensational performance by England this weekend is going to stop this being a scratch game or Ireland as narrow favourites. England play Italy after Wales away and in that game they really have more to lose than to gain in relation to their performance and effecting their odds for the Ireland match. Get a nice position now.

I'll try and get a preview up on Friday for the weekend, I won't be going big this weekend as I didn't do too well last year. Baby steps....

Recommendations:

Riki Flutey to score any time during the tournament @ 1.83 for 2 points with Bluesquare.
Matthew Tait to score any time during the tournament @ 2.37 for 1 point with Bluesquare.
Ireland + 2 against England @1.91 for 2 points with Paddy Power.

One final note or more like question, would you back that either England, Wales, Scotland or Italy at 3.0 to win the tournament outright? Nope, me neither 1.5 on either Ireland and France looks good.