6 Nations Week 1

I've said in an earlier posting I'm going to take things easy at the start of the tournament because strange things happen every year, so baby steps for Saturday's games.

Ireland v Italy

Could Italy be one of those strange things, wound up by Magners League exclusion, not getting a fair crack at the whip and looking to put behind them what was a poor season last year. Thought, I don't think Italy are going to flick the switch and stop being crap however they couldn't be as bad as last year, can they? Parisse is out, they've a new 10 who I don't know much about and they are probably 4/1 for a back to score a try, throughout the tournament. They'll always be competitive upfront and you can't see that stopping with easy targets of Healy and Hayes and will have a strong tight five.

Looking at last years result of 9-38 you have to think the -20 at home for Ireland is perfectly obtainable. That result disguises what was an decidedly average performance from Ireland where they only just scored their first intercept try, followed by another one just before the half time whistle. Italy were six nil up at one stage and Ireland didn't score when they had a man sin binned after one minute.

As great as it look last season Ireland did play quite a patient game and used their experience, preparation and intensity to win every game. If they can apply a stronger attacking edge they will make this handicap. I was going to leave this game alone but after watching the A game tonight I'm more confident that Kidney is asking his players to start games properly and mix the point of attack.

Recommendation: Ireland -20 for 1 point at evens with Stan James/Bet Fred.

England v Wales

Naming the two sides for this fixtures has become something akin to musical chairs. Firstly the merry go around of the Byrnes appeal, then Tom Rees injured, Haskell a maybe, Gethin out, Flutey out. Hopefully the teams will be somewhat similar to the ones I've been looking at for the past half hour when they kick off at 17.30, but I'm sure someone will trip on their shoe lace for the captains run.

One thing that won't be changing in my opinion is Martin Johnson's approach to this game. I'm not his biggest fan in fact I don't think many are, but selecting Toby Flood and then mentioning he has 'good kicking and defensive game' speaks volumes for what England are going to try and do. Reel it right back in Johnny from your statement a month ago out an bold game approach. Expect Johnny W to sit back and play the percentages. As quality a player as he is. his style hasn't evolved over the past 5 years and blitz defences negate his stand off, sitting deep approach which once suited his left boot.

Wales have their critics too and plenty of questions to answer. Personally I think they won the worst the grand slam in the past while. Looking at their clubs performances this year and individual player performance they are playing ok, marginally better than last year. In terms of selections if I was a Welsh supporter I wouldn't like to see Hook playing 13 a quite unfamiliar position for him.

So the big question comes down to price, looking at it England are way to short, at 1.5 with some bookies, if only I could lay that. Sure they have home advantage, haven't lost two games in a row in Twickenham to the Welsh for years but you couldn't trust them. The November internationals identified a lot of problems for both teams but I think that Wales have a much better chance of improving quicker than England. If their offloading game returns the English backlines' defensive capabilities don't inspire me.

There are a lot of if's and buts. The stats are against Wales to win but England, from being in a good position on Wednesday, are now suddenly looking worried without Flutey. They'll dominate in the scrum but that won't win them the match.

Recommendation: Wales +5 at evens for one point with Victor Chandler