Well technically it may not be half term but now is as good a time as any to review the punting so far this rugby season.
After a blistering start which saw me hit over 18pts of profit and an ROI of about 40% by mid Oct, it was a little shaky after then. Between the end of Oct till the end of December saw me lose 5pts and really drag down the ROI. One thing to take from this period was that some of the games were quite close and I wasn't calling the games massively wrong. I would have been worried if that was the case.
As I kicked into the New Year I had some very succesful results and ended up 3pts back to 17pts of profit by the end of January. Whilst I haven't kicked on since early October I'm quite happy by my jugdement of games. My bet type selection and point allocation could be sharpened to get the most of my game analysis. Personally I've dabbled a little in spread betting on handicap lines and most of my two to three point handicap selections would have paid much better than straight up handicap lines and odds of 1.91.
I hope that you've enjoyed the blog so far this season and I'm rubbing my hands in anticipation of the 6 nations. Last year it was a big red mark on my spreadsheet so I'm going to be a little cautious but I believe it should produce some value bets.
I'm hoping to do a preview in the next few days and might have a small outright bet. Thanks for all the comments this year and I hope that your still in profit too.
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024
-
Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The
rhetoric of why they should be excluded is just nonsense. It's 2024 - has
any...
1 week ago
Good stuff Ken, keep it up.
ReplyDeleteSix-Nations was a rubbish period for me as well last year. Chucked away a few months wages during that comp, one of two times I did that last year, and needed a big summer as a result (I wish there were Lions tours every year!).
The main problem was the complete lack of favourites going down. I think 7/4 was the biggest priced winner and I tend to have a go on longer odds so not a great comp for me. I think when Monye chased down Evans somewhat incredibly as Scotland looked set to go 8-0 up summed up the tournament. Just didn't quite work, but came close on ocassions.
So is it going to be Ireland to romp home? ;)
Wont blame you if it is what you post, I think they have an exceptional squad right now and really need to make the most of it. Good players coming through, but the likes of O'Driscoll are irreplaceable. Most teams would kill for a backline with BOD, Bowe and Kearney in it.
It's worth finding out how long Barcella is out for as the French scrum is massively improved for having him. The front-row looks to be Ireland's major weakness. Looking forward to this one......
RugbyMan
Great work Ken, Really enjoying the blog.
ReplyDeleteI hope the 6 nations treats you better this year.
When you are doing your preview, could you mention any Magners league players you could see having a decent chance at a few tries? I always like to go chasing the mug bets on first try-scorer with my mates.
Thanks again,
Ewan
There is a reason I don't do those bets Ewan ;)
ReplyDeleteSeriously though I'd say if you had Tommy Bowe to score first and anytime for every six nations game you'd end up in profit for the six nations.
Regarding the Magners league first try scorer they always seem to fit the same build. Look at the favoured team, see their style and compare it defensive capabilites of the oppo. If you've a decent attacking team with strong big wingers I'll always go that. Danelli has actually earned me some money before and Mr. Bowe on that belief.