Profit after this match: £1704 or 17.04 points ROI 25.44%
The first of the A internationals for this year and it throws up an interesting betting market.
Earlier on in the week after seeing the Irish squad I decided to throw a few prices up on the machine. Before seeing both starting line-ups my view was Ireland A (or soon to be known as 'The Wolfhounds') are a proper team. Most of the players will player together or against each for much of the season. They spend a lot of time in camp together, they've plenty international expierence and most importantly they are paid to perform a job for their country as well as province.
Team England on the other hand don't even have a proper first team, have spoken about bringing a new approach to the 6 nations and have never looked liked playing together or even knowing who the person next to them is.
Based on this belief I stuck a lay up on England at 1.5 on Tuesday thinking this would be an excellent value lay as I only gave them a 40%-50% chance of winning. Well I got matched as most of the bookies priced it up at 1.35. I think people may have over-reacted to the weakness in Ireland's front row. Buckley in my opinion is useless (expect to see Ross brought on early) and shouldn't be in the squad and Best and Horan are coming back from injuries, however at least these two have plenty of full international expierence. England posesses one excellent scrummager but Doran-Jones is far from one.
Looking at the rest of the pack you'd have to say Leinster, sorry Ireland A have an excellent mixture of up and coming players in O'Brien, Toner and solid expierence and guile with O'Driscoll and Jennings. At 9/10 you've got an exciting partnership even though Wallace is a 12 but plenty of ability to attack and more so than his opposite number. The centre partnership might not be the greatest but they played together along with the others outside them when they demolished Argentina A's in Tallaght.
England have some good players in Strettle and Waldouck in the back line but as Gearghty showed last week for Northampton he isn't a ten and has an obsession with kicking the ball away.
It'll be a close game but the handicap of +8 for Ireland has to be snapped up. I may lose my lay on England but I still would have had the game a lot closer than what the bookies have it.
Recommendation: Ireland +8 for 2pts @1.91 with Corals or Betfair.WON
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024
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Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The
rhetoric of why they should be excluded is just nonsense. It's 2024 - has
any...
1 week ago
Bit of a worry that Ireland (the wolfhounds is an even sillier name than the Saxons) didn't take that one. As you stated they are more used to playing with and against each other and should have been a tighter knit group than England. With little between them on paper that was my reason for laying England at every price between 1.27 and 1.6
ReplyDeleteAlas, it didn't cop, but no doubt it could have done as Ireland dominated possession in the second half. And I didn't lose anything in the end, just a missed chance for a decent win. Looks bad in hindsight not to do the handicap, but the lays were good enough for me.
Not a bad A international though, I think there were some decent performances from up-and-comers on both sides and plenty can be taken from it. Why Johnson overlooks Phil Dowson though (a genuine workhorse and leader with a bit of ability in the loose to boot) is something that will continue to baffle me.
Wallace certainly is a 12 though, amazed that Humphries didn't come on earlier.
RugbyMan