Heineken Cup Round 2 Tipping and Betting

After this weekend's betting current profit is: £1299.85 or 13pts. ROI is 49.99%.

-----Update 17/10/2009 9am-------

Not much time to do write up. Saturday's bets.

London Irish -11.5pt at 1.91 for 2pts Lost and London Irish -22 for .5pts Lost.
Ulster -5pts @1.91 for 1pt Won


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Great weekend last week punting wise and the Leicester v Osprey's game was spectacular. Leinster didn't do me proud but it's not all over...... yet.

Dragons v Glasgow

This all Magners league clash is pretty interesting. Glasgow have game controller Cuister back whist Dragons put out two débutantes at each side of the hooker. You always have to be wary of an all new front row and the Scottish pack are no push over. However the overall package from Glasgow this season have been hot and cold.

Glasgow started the season well but fell to a bad defeat against Dragons earlier this season and showed their frailty on the road. I backed Dragons that day as Glasgow weren't at full strength. They do now have Cuister and one of the Evans back which certainly makes a difference however their record away from home is pretty poor and the Dragons have made their home a fortress this season.

I don't think this is going to be as an easy game for the Dragons as it was last time, however apart from Parks you can't see where points are going to come from in the Glasgow back line. Last week was two narrow losses for both these teams but the Dragons have probably more to be cheerful about by scoring two tries away from home and narrowly losing out to a gritty Gloucester.

Recommendation: Dragons -2 at 2.0 on Totesport for 1pt. Won

Perps v Northampton

Leinster beat Munster 30-0, Leinster got beaten by London Irish, Northampton beat Munster and Treviso beat Perpingan so how can you work out this one?

Well the best thing to do sometimes is have a look at what the bookies might think. My 'insiders' at Paddy's informed me that they were offering a shop only bonus price of 3.0 on a Leinster/Munster double. They duly got hammered on the offer and had to drop it. Shortly before game time Leinster were backed in from 1.4 to 1.3. Paddy Powers opened up at 11/10 on Munster which ended up going off at shorter than 4/5 everywhere else.

For this game Paddy's show a two points different on Perps at -8 whilst everyone else is at 6. Perps are embarrassed by last week. Northampton beat Munster, but they should have. The teams deeply affected by the Lions haven't looked sharp or fit and none scored a victory in the first week of the H-Cup.

Recommendation: Perps -6.5 at 1.95 on Betfair for 1pt. Won

Rest of the Games:

I'm going to be out and about for the weekend so might not have a chance to follow the first handicap lines for the rest of the weekend. So if you are online tomorrow at 1ish some matches and lines I'd look out for are:

London Irish v Llanneli - said it many times here, a strong attacking team at home against the Scarlets are great proposition, if you have a strong pack even better. You saw it with Ulster and you'll see it again here with Irish. Anything around the minus 9-10 mark on Irish is a steal. I'd actually fancy a cheeky punt on Irish minus 20.

Edinburgh v Ulster - The northerners have done me proud the last few weeks and I'm getting a little wary and waiting for them to stop their good run. Last year they never won more than two games in a row. They go to the graveyard of Murrayfield however on first look at the win market on Betfair I thought the prices would be a lot closer. Edinburgh's early season form has faded and they aren't free scoring or as dangerous as they were. Can Ulster win a fourth in a row I don't know, however I thought they had a good chance and might be a 2.25 shot. They're currently 2.5 on a 110% book. If you could get Ulster plus 5-6 that would be great value. I'd nearly fancy them to win outright as well at 2.7 if that manages to make it's way up there.

Osprey v Clermont - Team sheet, team sheet, team sheet. If Clermont don't stick out a decent team Ospreys could run up a score. I'm no expert on French rugby so you'd need to study Clermont's team. Ospreys looked great for most of the match against Leicester and are just finding their fitness and form now. If they didn't have two amateurs as props they'd have easily won the game.

Well a pretty successful weekend and clearly I know more about Leinster, which is a bit worrying.

To the right is a screen shot of the current profit and ROI. Doing nicely

Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost

Magners League Round 5

Ulster v Scarlets

I'm quite surprised with bookies' line on this one. I think they underestimate Ulster here. Whilst on paper they don't have a great record against Llanelli and haven't enthralled their fans at home their last three games they have been very strong signs of a good team building up. Obviously away to Ospreys they showed some battle and expansive play and then continued this until the final 20 mins of the Edinburgh game at home. Last week they went to Connacht and thoroughly dismissed Connacht, which is something not many teams do at the Sportsground.

The Scarlets luckily have Mr. Stephen Jones back. He automatically adds balance and points to their package however this is his first game back and few returning Lions have flown out of the blocks so far in their first game. Looking at their backline they don't have any stand out line breakers or ability to score tries. Ulster do. With Ferris back as well Ulster want to the monkey off their back and get their first home win this season. I always maintain that the Scarlets can't defence the breakdown and are too slow in this area and Ulster are great counter attackers. Having Wallace back for Ulster also opens up their play and ability.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts at 1.94 for 2 points on Betfair WON and Ulster -16.5points at 6.5 on PP's for 0.5 points WON.

Current Profit: £784.60 or 7.85pts. ROI 34%

Magners League Round 4

Last weekend was emotional, maybe there is something to be learned from it with my bet choice however I thought there was massive value on the Leinster/Leinster only to be robbed by a Scottish ref!

This weekend is slightly more difficult to pick out the winners on Saturday's games. First up though is Friday night's game.

Connacht v Ulster

I had a few quick texts/comments from my loyal Connacht supporter (notice the singular) to gloat. Fair play to them, they turned it upside down and we've seem some short price teams, Cardiff last week at 1.15 and Ospreys at 1.07 against Ulster lose. Now who says the Magners league isn't interesting, however I think this could be back to business as usual for Connacht.

They interestingly have not won two games in a row in the league since Sept 2006. Last year they beat Munster and Leinster at home but lost to Ulster by two points. In fact Ulster haven't lost to Connacht in their last 8 games.

Ulster last week had a blistering opening pace and looked much better than Edinburgh but missed some early chances and kicks. With Paddy Wallace coming back in at certain I think it adds a little more class and better kicking. Ferris is out however Henry is a strong replacement. With powerful runners likes Nagusa and Danelli Connacht will have a tough time defending them. They were slightly lucky that poor kicking from Keatley stopped Connacht from winning last time though. I just feel that Ulster have more to offer and Connacht though competitive for inter-provs haven't improved their side from last year.

If Ulster come out like they did last week they'll put a score up against Ulster however I wouldn't want another verbal-bashing from the singular Connacht fan.

Recommendation - Ulster/Ulster @2.12 for 1 point with Betfair WON.

Glasgow v Osprey's

On paper Osprey's, in reality Glasgow. What is the story with Welsh teams this year? Apart from the Dragons (the Welsh development side????) not one team has a back bone or a bit of class.

I really think this is quite simple, Glasgow are a good side and Ospreys are pants so far. Sure they might turn it on with Williams back but their back line was flat and standing still for the whole game last week. Added to the fact that I'm expecting Scott Johnson to give me a call to go in at front row for next week they have no pack. Glasgow have an excellent front row and if Osprey's finished where they left off last week they'll be hammered up front.

You can still back both teams at evens at the moment but I would price Glasgow as a 1.75 shot to be honest. They have an Evans back and the impression I got from last week was that they were rotating for the Dragons (the number one team in Wales) who beat them comfortably.

Recommendation:- Glasgow to win 2.1 for 2 points with Totesport LOST.

I don't have time to stick up my profit as I'm running to the pub but I'm in profit, honest ;)