Heineken Cup Round 2 Tipping and Betting

After this weekend's betting current profit is: £1299.85 or 13pts. ROI is 49.99%.

-----Update 17/10/2009 9am-------

Not much time to do write up. Saturday's bets.

London Irish -11.5pt at 1.91 for 2pts Lost and London Irish -22 for .5pts Lost.
Ulster -5pts @1.91 for 1pt Won


-------------------------------------------

Great weekend last week punting wise and the Leicester v Osprey's game was spectacular. Leinster didn't do me proud but it's not all over...... yet.

Dragons v Glasgow

This all Magners league clash is pretty interesting. Glasgow have game controller Cuister back whist Dragons put out two débutantes at each side of the hooker. You always have to be wary of an all new front row and the Scottish pack are no push over. However the overall package from Glasgow this season have been hot and cold.

Glasgow started the season well but fell to a bad defeat against Dragons earlier this season and showed their frailty on the road. I backed Dragons that day as Glasgow weren't at full strength. They do now have Cuister and one of the Evans back which certainly makes a difference however their record away from home is pretty poor and the Dragons have made their home a fortress this season.

I don't think this is going to be as an easy game for the Dragons as it was last time, however apart from Parks you can't see where points are going to come from in the Glasgow back line. Last week was two narrow losses for both these teams but the Dragons have probably more to be cheerful about by scoring two tries away from home and narrowly losing out to a gritty Gloucester.

Recommendation: Dragons -2 at 2.0 on Totesport for 1pt. Won

Perps v Northampton

Leinster beat Munster 30-0, Leinster got beaten by London Irish, Northampton beat Munster and Treviso beat Perpingan so how can you work out this one?

Well the best thing to do sometimes is have a look at what the bookies might think. My 'insiders' at Paddy's informed me that they were offering a shop only bonus price of 3.0 on a Leinster/Munster double. They duly got hammered on the offer and had to drop it. Shortly before game time Leinster were backed in from 1.4 to 1.3. Paddy Powers opened up at 11/10 on Munster which ended up going off at shorter than 4/5 everywhere else.

For this game Paddy's show a two points different on Perps at -8 whilst everyone else is at 6. Perps are embarrassed by last week. Northampton beat Munster, but they should have. The teams deeply affected by the Lions haven't looked sharp or fit and none scored a victory in the first week of the H-Cup.

Recommendation: Perps -6.5 at 1.95 on Betfair for 1pt. Won

Rest of the Games:

I'm going to be out and about for the weekend so might not have a chance to follow the first handicap lines for the rest of the weekend. So if you are online tomorrow at 1ish some matches and lines I'd look out for are:

London Irish v Llanneli - said it many times here, a strong attacking team at home against the Scarlets are great proposition, if you have a strong pack even better. You saw it with Ulster and you'll see it again here with Irish. Anything around the minus 9-10 mark on Irish is a steal. I'd actually fancy a cheeky punt on Irish minus 20.

Edinburgh v Ulster - The northerners have done me proud the last few weeks and I'm getting a little wary and waiting for them to stop their good run. Last year they never won more than two games in a row. They go to the graveyard of Murrayfield however on first look at the win market on Betfair I thought the prices would be a lot closer. Edinburgh's early season form has faded and they aren't free scoring or as dangerous as they were. Can Ulster win a fourth in a row I don't know, however I thought they had a good chance and might be a 2.25 shot. They're currently 2.5 on a 110% book. If you could get Ulster plus 5-6 that would be great value. I'd nearly fancy them to win outright as well at 2.7 if that manages to make it's way up there.

Osprey v Clermont - Team sheet, team sheet, team sheet. If Clermont don't stick out a decent team Ospreys could run up a score. I'm no expert on French rugby so you'd need to study Clermont's team. Ospreys looked great for most of the match against Leicester and are just finding their fitness and form now. If they didn't have two amateurs as props they'd have easily won the game.