Magners League Round 7

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).