Magners League Round 6

It was a pleasant weekend's betting and I finished narrowly up. London Irish seemingly so focused on beating Leinster two weeks ago couldn't beat a fired up Llanelli which surprised me and my bank balance. Well the H-Cup is parked until December so what's in store this weekend?

Ulster v Leinster

Another weather affected game this. It will be raining quite heavily from lunch time and continue with strong enough wind expected throughout the game. Right that's my Micheal Fish bit finished but it's important.

Team sheet wise the IRFU 2 year World Cup programme is really having an effect. Both teams are far from first choice in key areas but which are the ones that will matter the most. Ronnie McCormack starts in front row for Leinster in what will no doubt be a scrum heavy game and he is a severe weak link for Leinster against first choice front row for Ulster. Leinster have the edge in terms second row and Ulster losing Ferris is big. Horua who comes in is good but I think Leinster really have a form back row in what will be tricky conditions.

Once we get to the backs some interesting selection. Leinster's nine ten is very weak. Berne showed reasonably skill at 1st centre earlier in the season but not a great show at 10. Keane is an average Magners League player but if he can kick well it may cover up Leinster's weakness here. Humphries has been playing well this season but with Wallace rested at first centre once you get out of the scrum Ulster start to look a little ropey. Humphries also isn't the great defender in the world. Wallace is vital to linking up any moves which Ulster have been doing well with this season. Ian Whitten is a strong runner but himself and Trimble are similar and offering only straight line ability and no quick hands. Also neither can kick with ball in hand.

Overall I think Leinster with a strong 11-15 have the edge in the backs. One key point in their favour is that Ulster play from deep and defence a little bit deeper than most teams. Leinster have problems dealing with blitz defences but probably won't have that here. It won't be a classic but has to be better than the shocking game at Murrayfield last night and the unders are probably going to be the one to watch as traditional wet games in Ravenhill end up low scoring.

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 1.91 for 1pt with Stan James LOST, Under 34 points @ 2.0 for 1pt with William Hill WON.

Edinburgh v Munster

I find it quite funny when people get annoyed when no one prices up games for the Magners league on Betfair sometimes. Granted the liquidity can be poor on some games (markedly so this year) however it pays to price up matches. I often have a quick glance at the team sheets when they come out and throw up prices I'd be happy to get matched at. Today I went looking for Edinburgh at 3.0 thinking they would start at about 2.3ish. Bang got matched, it wasn't for much but I'm a happy camper. So if you have an opinion put up prices you'd be happy to get match at. Sure you can price it wrong and be caught on the wrong side (been there bought the...) but if it was a price you were happy to take and you considered it value then it was personally a good bet.

Looking at this game it's quite hard to call. The rain is supposed to come early and often and like Glasgow it should be heavy however not that windy. Both teams have had mixed European results and Munster are starting this season slowly. Edinburgh were very happy to beat an inform Ulster and they started to play well in the last 30 mins of the game. Munster this season seem to starting games very poorly and at this time of year they have traditionally not performed well after coming back from Heineken Cup games. Their set piece has been awful and can't be helped by missing three of their front row options because of injury. Edinburgh have proved tough to beat at home and with the return of Chris Patterson that's like starting off with nine points because of his right boot.

It's a very difficult game to call and I think the weather could stop Munster from kicking on from some improvement that was seen in the second half of their last game. The last four times they've met the score has only got past 35 points once, add that to the weather the unders look an option. Munster this season have been ridiculously slow out of the blocks, only being 6-6 against Dragons at home at half-time and letting their Italian opponents go 10 points up after 20 mins last week. I don't think it'll be a classic and Munster probably won't be able to build phases from weak set pieces so far this season but might just scrape it.

Recommendation: Edinburgh/Munster @6.5 for 0.5pt LOST and Under 38.5 pts @1.9 for 1pt on Betfair or other bookmakers, once they price it up WON.

Glasgow v Connacht

I've had a love hate relationship with cheering on or going against Connacht this year. They have just put two decent games together but importantly they often find it hard to put three together because of their small squad. They defence doesn't seem to travel to well either and on the road they concede a lot of points, on average 31 in the last 6 games.

Connacht have made two changes from last week however they are slightly weaker and no doubt suffering from fatigue. Their back and second rows aren't great and this season seem to be under the cosh for nearly every away game at every set piece. Glasgow return from Europe after two defeats albeit not by much. Importantly they now have their first choice centre partnership and Max Evans back on the wing for the first time this season.

Interestingly this time last year Glasgow started a bit of a run and have always been very strong at home. Connacht haven't won in Scotland for four games in a row and with a thin squad this could be another tough day in Scotland. The forecast predicts heavy rain from after lunch which could stop Glasgow's running style however at this fixture last yea, Glasgow managed to finish strongly and win 30-9 in howling wind and rain so it's not so much of a worry. After Connacht have travelled back from France, only had two or three days to train and just a few players changes I think that the handicap line of 14.5pt is achievable for Glasgow. The weather will be an issue but Glasgow are used to playing with the rain in the faces at Firhill.

Recommendation: Glasgow -14.5pts @ 1.91 for 1.5 point LOST. Price freely available.