Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost