Heineken Cup Semi Finals

Toulouse v Leinster

A year after Cheika joined Leinster, the province and this squad had their seminal moment beating Toulouse in one of the best games of rugby I've ever seen. Cheika has since shown why he was the most in demand coach when announcing he was leaving 'Les Blues' as he turned the bridesmaids into European champions.

On that day in 2006 Leinster were a different team playing a different style. The match was open, attacking and at some times just plain crazy. Remember this try? Anyway if Leinster of old were to show up with the same attitude, personally I think they could win this game.

Toulouse have a strong squad and are hardly carrying any knocks. Over the past few weeks their pack has become immense and according to the reports I've read Byron Kelleher is back in form after a quite patch. Leinster go to Toulouse with question marks over three or four players, limited game time for others and two losses all be it with weak squads. Sexton is a massive loss but the freshness and fitness of other players is more of an issue to me.

Against Clermont, Horgan and O'Driscoll were unfit and certainly lacking match sharpness. They haven't shown much since that game. The real battle is going to be in the scrum and without CJ starting Leinster are going to be going backwards at every scrum time. They are not going to get the possession and platform to play the percentage and pressure game they need. Depending on how Nigel ref's we could see them being pinged for numerous free kicks and penos. I just can't see how we'll have the opportunity to defend hard with a scrum going backwards.

In terms of a betting proposition the 1.4 for Toulouse is probably too short even though they should win. I couldn't really get overly excited with the handicap of 7 either. Personally I think that Toulouse will either lose or win by 15 or more and it's 50/50 on either of those. Watching Leinster as intently as I have for the past few months there is a worrying trend. They are becoming hesitant at the start, it happened against Clermont, Connacht and Ospreys. The only way they can win this is by starting strongly and keep the scrum working, that's how they won the cup last year. I might get involved if after 10/15 mins Leinster look like they're really up for it and the defence is in Toulouse face, I'll look at the Leinster +7. If it isn't I'll by looking to Toulouse +15.

Recommendation: No bet. Just enjoy it.

Magners League Weekend 16/4

Leinster v Ospreys

Just a quick preview before the price moves for tonight's big game before a price goes. Osprey's are playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have made a few changes but have clearly targeted their previous two games for wins, of which they got one. Beating Ulster has helped their cause massively to qualify for the Magners league playoffs.

Osprey's haven't beaten Leinster in any of their last 5 games home or away. Most bookies are going Leinster -7 or -8. To he honest before kick off that could drift out further.

William Hill are still Leinster -6 and I've taken some of that. Leinster are missing Sexton and O'Driscoll but are fine elsewhere. McFadden is playing and he is a strong kicker. I'd expect them to take this Osprey's team who have barely had two days in Wales since they lost to Biarritz.

Recommendation: Leinster -6 with William Hill for 2 points.

Magners League Easter Weekend

I'm back! It's been awhile I know and I did warn you that I would be quieter around the Internationals. Anyway straight into the action starting with the biggest game this weekend.

Connacht v Edinburgh

Connacht as you would only expect put on a good performance in the RDS last week and only inexperience cost them in the end. They've made a few changes today in order to keep them fresh for their big European next week. I've said it before (and sometimes got it wrong) that Connacht find it extremely hard to put two big games in a row. If I was Bradley I'd take a hit on this game for European glory and something to add to the CV when he leaves this summer. They have a strong team out but they've got an eye on next week.

Edinburgh have been stuttering about all season and been dogged by poor away form. They've been slightly unlucky as most of their away trips were to inform teams at the time. They have a strong line-up to chose from this weekend and you have to remember that they hammered Connacht 62-13 in Murrayfield at the start of the season. So how can a team who crucified their opponents and have a better team to choose from today be almost evens to win away? I personally had them at about 1.7 to win and maybe considering Connacht if there was a nice handicap but personally the current price is wrong.

Recommendation: Edinburgh to win at 1.91 for 1.5 pts (with Betfair/888Sport/Bluesquare), Connacht/Edinburgh in the Halftime/Fulltime market @7.2 for 0.5pt with Betfair.

Munster v Leinster

Enough has probably been said regarding the build up with the usual column inch filling clichés, so I'll just focus on the facts.

Leinster have had the upper hand in the last two games against Munster including a massive victory at the beginning of the season. However Munster weren't focused on that game and were worried about Northampton the following week (which they lost) and then Leinster went on and lost against Irish at home.

Looking at the head to heads an interesting stat comes across. In the last six games whoever has won has done so with an impressive margin of at least 7 points but generally around 15 points. Watching some of the games you would know that the scoreline didn't reflect the performance. Case in point being Thomand last season where a severely depleted Leinster were beaten 22-5 however it was just two shocking pieces of defending that game away two tries. A more pertinent fact I take interest in is that Leinster have lost three times this year away and ignoring the Dragons game which was a complete B team they put out, have not lost by more than 3 points.

Looking at the past six clashes there has never been more than a total of more than 33 points points scored. With the conditions underfoot likely to be at least soggy with the possibility of showers the total match points market should be of some interest.

I personally think Munster will win this game and need to win it more than Leinster both in terms of team morale but also their position in the Magners league for a home semi. Both teams have tough enough games next week and of course will have one eye on them. Munster perhaps having the easier of the two but they've stuttered all season unlike last year. Both teams laboured to a victory last week however I couldn't believe the handicap for the Leinster game, Connacht always put up a brave match and Leinster have rarely had 17pts on them.

Upfront I favour Leinster, personally I think Quinlan has past it, Ronan only plays one good in two and missing Paul O'Connell is a big loss to their pack, this should keep the game tighter. They rarely play amazing without him. The Munster back line and especially centre partnership should over power the ever improving but slight McFadden. I'm not happy with Dempsey on the wing for Leinster and he offers very little both in terms of pace and creativity aged 35. One of the new wingers should have had his chance today.

I think we are due a close points game for a change but the total amount of those points will be consistent with history. The bookies range from Munster -4 to -7 and the latter makes it an attractive proposition to back Leinster on the handicap.

Recommendations: Leinster +7 for one point at 1.91 with Bodog. Total Match Points under 36.5pts for two points with Boylesports at 1.8*.

*Also a spread bet is a good option here with sportsspread.com if rain does arrive it could dampen the fixture completely and you've a lot playing for you. Their spread is 33-36 and I can't imagine it being a massive open fixture with more than 40 points.

Magners League 05/03/2010

No time for a preview.

Ulster have a strong side who if they play the same as the did against the Dragons will open up Scarlets a lot easier.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.38 with Stan James for 1 point.

6 Nations Round 2

It's been a busy week pondering and reviewing last weeks disappointing games. With Ireland and France I personally saw two teams win their games in 30 mins and then decide not to show their main rivals anything for today's game. For the other game, well England apparently won but in my view Wales lost and it just so happened their were white shirts in front of them, England didn't do anything to deserve a win.

France v Ireland

Bastareaud, Bastareaud, Bastareaud. The media boy for the week after swatting some Scottish centres away and being 'unstopable'. Personally I think he is more damaging to the team who play with him than a team who can play at him. He allowed Scotland to break the line plenty of times by running up un-flanked from France's blitz defence. Most importantly France were trying to get this right because they know it's one of Ireland's weaknesses against such a defence. He could be as much of a liabilty as wrecking ball to Ireland. Also, I think his opposite centres know how to tackle and tackle hard.

Ireland last week showed they had moves for 20-30mins and then shut up shop, at least we know it's there. The scrum was excellent, Cullen helped POC destory the Italian line-out and Ferris, albeit recovering from injury, will add more to put pressure on the excellent French back row.

The fact is this is the championship decider and it's a pity the powers that be has put it so early in the calendar. I suppose the French & Italian tourist boards must bribe the officals so that they always have a home nation visiting them on Valentine's weekend. This will be a great game, possibly dominated more by power and determination than finesse which will play in Ireland's hands. Ireland go to Paris today with their best ever team in decades with the best coaching ticket they've had and a plus six handicap. You can't say this is the greatest French side, I'm not a fan of Trin-Duc yet and Scotland exposed plenty of holes in their backline and either side of rucks.

With all the talk of a new breed of French players and their superior power and skill, I think they have forgotten about a guy who showed up on the scene 10 years ago in this same fixture, he might have an impact today:





Recommendation: Ireland +6 at evens for one point with VC.