Christmas Magners League Fixtures

Leinster v Ulster

I'm quite suprised by the amount of changes that Ulster have made for this game as I really thought they would give it a go. Unfortunately I think they might be looking to damage limitation on the day.

Their centre partnership have played a lot together but are by no means a match for Leinster's and with Reddan showing some strong form and with quick ball because of a dominant pack in front of him expect the Ulster backs to be facing an on slaught.

Leinster have traditionally played well over the Christmas season and I don't see it stopping here. Considering they've beaten Ulster by over 25 points in each their last two home games the minus 13 handicap on Leinster looks good. Add this to the fact that in three of their last four games Ulster have shipped over 20 points in each you'd have to fancy a full strengh Leinster.

Recommendation: Leinster -13points for 2pts with most bookies LOST

Scarlets v Ospreys

I mentioned a few weeks ago before the Ospreys Munster game that the Ospreys were focusing on key games. If they aren't focusing on this game after watching the Scarlets in the last two games they must be crazy.

Luckily they have a strong team out and sure derbies are always close events but the last two meetings of these teams has seen Ospreys win both home and away. Also their next two games against are home to Cardiff and away to Ulster which they may seek to take a hit on.

Having witnessed how poor the Scarlets have been in the past week it's no suprise to hear they have only won once in seven. They are leaking tries left right and centre and have no sort of blitz defence. This type of defence is what hurts teams like Leinster and Ospreys. I'm sure they'll be more competitive infront of a sold out stadium however I reckon 40-50% of the stadium will be following the boys in black from up the road.

With a strong running backline and what looks like hard ground I fully expect the Ospreys to win this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -3pts at evens for two points with Bluesquare or 888sport. WON

Munster v Connacht

After defying all the odds the true Munster showed their colours for a fantastic victory last week. As for myself, I was a non-believer and one of the doubters in their ability to pull off even a bonus point loss and I never seem to learn from my mistakes with these lads.

Connacht had another win in the Challenge Cup and look to be improving as the season continues. They generally grab a derby scalp or two during the year but these are always at home. They've put out a strong side and the one improvement they have applied this year is more powerful back play with the strong running N Ta'auso.

Munster have made nine changes to last weeks victory and although their replacements are capable players this is by no means a walk in the park for them. Last season Munster fielded a slightly more inform and stronger side than this and won by 15 points. Tomorrow's team has a bit to much reconstruction for my liking and for a backline that has only clicked once or twice this season there are a few too many green players. Importantly Munster have started every half slow this year and with this derby game I'd expect the same.

Recommendation: Half time handicap Connacht +7 @ 1.91 (most bookies) for 1pt. LOST

Glasgow v Edinburgh

The last few Christmas games between these teams have always been high scoring affairs. Briefly looking at the teams today they both seem at almost full strength and the handicap line of Glasgow -4 seems about right, if a touch generous for a Glasgow team who are top of the table. They've been playing well all season and Firhill has turned into a bit of a fortress.

Edinburgh of late haven't been scoring tries but getting some results. You'd have to favour Glasgow at home here however I don't think it's going to be as free scoring as previous games have been. Edinburgh haven't been scoring tries and statistically you can't have 5 clashes of these teams going to unders. If the 'total points' is priced up on previous meetings it could be a bit of value.

Recommendations - Glasgow to win -4 @1.91 (with most bookies) for 1 point WON

Heineken Cup Round 3 Tipping

Saturday and Sunday Games

I'm off on the train to Llanelli very early tomorrow morning so I haven't had the time to check the other games.

Initial thoughts looking at the fixture list but these are by no means recommendations

Viadana v Ospreys - If Osprey's are missing key players they may miss the handicap
Ulster v Stade - Ulster need Wallace to win this, possibly could be 10 pt win by Stade if Glasgow beat them by 7pts last weekend.
Cardiff v Toulouse - Perps did well yesterday. If Toulouse have decent team they should beat the handicap.
Brive v Irish - In-running game. If Brive are up for it Irish could be in trouble as they've lost form.
Llanelli v Leinster - I'm at the game so look out for me. Leinster on paper have great team but the 9/10 is weak. If Berne starts well we might make it, otherwise I'm on unders.

Enjoy the weekend and hope you find a few winners.


Glasgow v Gloucester

In theory this game will probably be more interesting than the one in Thomond. You've got two teams who appear to be at full strength and a tight handicap line favouring the home side. A classic rugby game.

The slight favouring of home side of evenly matched teams is fair enough, personally I think it should be more than just slight in this case. I'll always favour a Magners league team performing well against an on/off performing Guinness Premiership team.

Gloucester don't seem to be playing brilliant this season and can't seem to get any consistent form. In fact the one thing they have done consistently is lost away from home winning only one in seven and shipping an average of almost twenty nine points . Whilst they've beat Leicester at home with a lucky knock-on, Leicester were missing Flood who actually helps them score tries. Also they seem to be coming back late and starting their games slowly, whilst Glasgow are the opposite.

Glasgow have only lost twice at home this season both in the Heineken Cup. Once to the best team in Wales, the Dragons and rather unluckily against Biarritz. They are also on the back of a good win away to Ulster who themselves have gone off the boil lately but aren't easy to beat at home.

Both teams possessing strong kickers but Parks gets the nod, the fella just doesn't miss. Personally I think Glasgow are playing well as a unit and have grown up a lot this season. They're top of the Magners league at the moment and have to win this game to hold any hope of getting through. I'll wear my Magners league blinkers on this one and go for Glasgow.

Recommendation: Glasgow to win @ 1.73 for 1 point with Tote Sport. Glasgow/Glasgow HT/FT for 1 points @2.5 on Tote Sport. Glasgow -2 pts for 1 point with many bookies.

Magners League Round 8 Betting

Ospreys v Munster

The Magners league gets a fair amount of stick because some provinces take the hit on certain games in order focus on the Heineken Cup. Looking at the Munster team this weekend you can't say that they are taking this game lightly.

Ospreys however are a bit of a different story. Whilst they are ravaged by injuries some of the comments made by their coach in the press are quite worrying for their chances;

"Selection has been made with a few things in mind, we need to send out a team that will be competitive against Munster while taking into account the heavy workload that some of the international boys have had over the last month, and the big games that we've got coming up over the next few months."

Ospreys are playing Viadana away next week which they should win and they'll be pushing for a bonus point victory. Looking at their team, it's not the weakest they have ever put out but their back line is shaky.

The weather is definately going to be a factor for this game with rain predicted. Munster's scrum and lineout should have the edge and you could see during the international period the Irish players were getting to full fitness after a stuttering start for club and country. The only worry is their backrow who certainly are less experienced than the Ospreys that been said the boys in black haven't fired all season. Fitness will be a concern for the Ospreys as haven't played any rugby at any level for two weeks whilst even the non Munster internationals have been playing A games.

Munster haven't lost to Ospreys in their last four meetings and I don't think it's going to change here. They should win this with ease and their is a sense of urgency for them to get their season in order. Comments from the Ospreys manager for me show that winning on Saturday isn't their ultimate priority and Munster should have the power and sharpness to win no matter the conditions.

Recommendation: Munster to win @1.75 for 2pts with Sporting Bet LOST, Munster -2 @1.91 for 1pt with most bookies LOST.

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time to write preview. Both teams normally start well after International break however Ulster missing three key players and Glasgow have a strong side. Bad weather as per usual expected in Ravenhill.

Recommendation for tonight's game: Glasgow +7.5pts @1.9 for 1 point on Betfair WON. Under 35.5 pts @1.83 for 1 point on Bet365 LOST.

Ireland v South Africa - Clash of the hemisphere champions

I can't wait for this game to kick off. It's been a big tease this whole Autumn International series knowing that this is waiting for us at the end.

This trip north for the Saffies has been difficult and they are clearly tiring. They had a long list of injuries at the start of the week but a fair few of them came through which somewhat exaggerated their price. In fact it's been a very interesting price graph on Betfair for the past 3 weeks. The Springboks starting off at the 1.65ish mark drifting after losing badly to Leicester and France. Their price moved quickly out past evens once Sexton was confirmed to start along with the fact they had cancelled training on Monday. The latter probably being more important.



I was very tempted to back them at 2.1 on Monday because the fact is they should never got that big. Should have, would have, could have and they are now back to the right price of 1.85.

To be honest I've found it very hard to formulate any straight forward bet apart from a bit of pre-match trading. Ireland will no doubt be sharper today and they'll need to be. If their forwards run off into the distance without protection like they did against Australia there will be turnover ball all day with Brussow sniping at the edges.

Personally I believe Sexton will unleash the backline much better than ROG ever can. Sure the Boks are going to be 'targeting' him however that if he handles it well this can play into Ireland's favour. Having a 7 or 1st centre looking to charge him down can allow him to create space for Wallace. Paddy is a completely underrated play-maker and if he has an inch of space he'll create plenty of openings for Bowe and BOD.

It's going to be a tough bruising game but Ireland will be the fitter fresher team. I believe the prices are about right now as Ireland should never have gone favourites for this game which they did do briefly on Tuesday. I'm going to be sitting back and watching this game with a small value bets and a pint in hand. In fact there may be a few pints drunk considering the last game of today's fantastic schedule ends 7 hours after Ireland's kick off. Bring it on.

Recommendation: South Africa/Ireland Halftime/Fulltime for 0.5pts at 8.0 on Betfair. Tommy Bowe to Score anytime @4.33 for 0.5pts on Paddy Power.

Ireland A vs. Argentina Jaguars

So why are they called the Jaguars?The question you should really ask is why is their first team called the Pumas? On all Argentinian jerseys the crest includes a Jaguar however on one of their first appearances on an international stage in South Africa one journalist took it onto himself to come up with a catchy nick name for the team a la 'the Springboks'. However he was obviously never on a safari and got the picked the wrong animal.

A simple enough mistake to make and another could be made here tonight on two fronts. One thinking that because there are so many amateurs in this side Argentina they aren't that strong and two that this is a strong Irish side.

The fact is Argentina as a whole are improving and not just in the pack. If you looked at how their backline against England they were vastly superior even though they had a few amateurs in it. This A team have actually played together a fair bit and have had a few impressive results including only losing by 8 points to England Saxons in the Churchill Cup. Also they seem to be improving as they beat Canada and USA in that tournament and then beat them again recently more comprehensively albeit representative sides.

This Irish side has plenty of well know players but personally most of them I don't think will ever make the international stage. Sure they'll be fitter and have a greater skill set than the Argentina but they aren't amazing. Ireland's pack is very average, with only Mike Ross really going to be holding it up. Ronan as I've said before isn't a great player and the two second rows are far from dynamic. Boss and Humphreys are in form however this whole backline is very small and relatively inexperienced apart from Dowling.

I fully expect Ireland to win but the only bookie I can find pricing it up (Paddy's) might be reading too much into how they beat Tonga who were a ramshankle side. Argentina have played together plenty of times, Ireland don't have a strong back row and it looks to be a windy night. The 18 point handicap is something to get me interested in.

Recommendation: Argentina Jaquars + 18 for one point on Paddy Powers