New Years Fixtures 31st - Jan 3rd

Cardiff vs Ospreys (Hairspreys)

When these two teams met at the beginning of the season, Cardiff were playing their 2nd game in four or five days and had a complete 2nd string squad out and lost by 40pts plus. In recent games the Hairspreys have flattered to deceive and haven't lived up to their hype but could be about to turn. They haven't been putting big scores against any decent sides, as was show by them not making the handicap against Scarlets at home.

Cardiff themselves are a solid team, with scoring ability when they have the power up front and with their strongest backline can score points. Cardiff have been rotating players in the past week for this game which they no doubt want to target as interest. Nicky Robinson is back in at 10, with Sweeney going to the bench. The Ospreys have dropped James Hook, who to be honest missed a few kicks last week and doesn't look in great form. Also Henson has been moved to 15 to accomadate his power running and Lee Byrne is in at wing.

Its going to be a tough game to call with, Cardiff on a 3.5pt handicap. I would say they'll probably make it however if the Ospreys can click (which they didn't last week but were close) could win and they look an attractive price. Interestingly looking at the scoring potential of both these teams, Cardiff on average over the last 6 games have scored 29 pts per game (against some good defensive sides), while Ospreys have scored on average 16points per game away from home (scoring points against good home opposition, Edinburgh & London Irish. With Welsh rugby all about attacking open play, if you combine those figures you get 45points, from averages would state that the overs look good. Last years game saw a scoreline total of 32 points however it was the first game of the season and Ospreys were missing their internationals. Two years ago at the same time of year its was a 54 points game.

Recommendation: Over 40.5pts @2.1 for 2 pts Lost& Ospreys to win @2.4 for 0.5pts. Won

Scarlets v Dragons

The Dragons have been a significantly better team this season then last year and have taken some big scalps (beating Ospreys two weeks ago) and keeping scores respectable (considering their whipping boy status last year). However I think that they are effectively about to hit a bad run of form, not in games lost (they've only won two since October) but in points difference, they are due a bad beat.

Scarlets on the other side have had an average to poor season and it took them three games to get a win in their new season but now I think they might have turned a corner, they are getting results and confidence. They only conceded a late try to the Ospreys last week to lose 20-6 (and they beat the handicap of 18.5, predicted here) and the previous week they played well against a slightly weakened Cardiff and had a comfortable 14 points win . They have three internationals back for this game with Stephen Jones (his boot is worth at least 9 points) coming back after a rest and I think they could find form to get a score against the Dragons. I can't get over how the handicap is only 9 points with some bookies (7pts early doors with StanJ) when they beat Cardiff two weeks ago easily. I think it should be 13-14. Dragons concede points away from home and lose, this handicap is too short.

Recommendation:- Scarlets to win - 7pts @1.91 (on Stanjames) for 3 points @ 1.91 Lost & Scarlets -14pts @2.75 (Paddy Power) for 1 point Lost.

Leinster v Connacht

Connacht come into this game on the back of another fantastic home win against Munster where they showed some great grit and excellent desire to keep a sloppy Munster from gaining any momentum. However today they are missing some key players from last weeks game, Cronin their 1 st choice prop and Irish international Gavin Duffy. For a squad as thread bare as this, it is hard to handle.

Leinster meanwhile have selected the best squad available (late fitness test on a stuttering B O'D), with Isa in at 10 which makes a big difference in terms of running and attacking ability compared to Sexton. He could possibly open up an inexpierenced 10 & centre partnership in Connacht. Also Kearney is in at full back adding more attacking and kicking ability than Dempsey.

Connacht have a good habit of playing well against their provinical brethren, however they also have a habit of playing out of their skin one week and then disastriously the next. Also if the team they meet after a good game is attacking and strong running it turns out a disaster (see London Irish and Ulster result). I don't think Leinster are as go forward or attacking as those however they'll take their chances. The handicap in this game is Leinster -20.5 on Betfair which I think is just about right, Boyles and Paddy's offering -19 @ 1.8 which is probably worth a small punt. However considering Leinster are so strong defensively this year I don't think they'll leak many tries so it could just be a four try bonus point game for them. I can't see Leinster racking up 6-7 tries for a 40 point score, or Connacht getting a sneaky try or two.

Recommendation:- Leinster -19pts for 1pt on Paddy power Lost@1.8 & Under 45.5pts on Betfair for 1pt @ 1.95 Won

Current Profit:- €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

Festive Season Bets Games - St. Stephen's Day-28th

Alright, we are back in action for the final few games in the Magner's league this season.

Dragon's vs. Cardiff -

The weaker teams in the Magners League have been improving all season as can be seen by Glasgow lying third and Dragon's beating Osprey's at home last week. I watched the second half of this game last week and the one thing that really impressed me was the never say die attitude of Dragon's and how they were able to put it up to their hair gelled Welsh cousins. This game is another massive grudge match and I think Dragon's are best equipped to take the battle to a tough yet uninspiring Cardiff team.

The Blues haven't won away from home since last May and they've only beaten the Dragons from their last 8 matches against Welsh teams. Unfortunately for the Dragon's they have only won one in the last six games against the Blues. However they really have turned a corner and improved their defence this season. It will be a tough game but I think that Dragons will be able to cross the line easier than Cardiff and should take a big scalp.

Recommendation:- Dragons +3.5pts for 2pts @1.95 Won

Osprey's vs Scarlets

It is a little surprising to see such a big handicap (17.5pts) in this game. There is no doubt that the Osprey's are a quality side and when you see the backline they are putting out tomorrow it looks pure international class. However that international form has not fallen into the Osprey's league form. The Ospreys have lost three of their last four in the league, but have won their last six at the Liberty Stadium in all competitions. If you ignore the H-Cup matches against whipping boys Treviso, they have only once come close to a 18 point victory, beating Worcester at home in the EDF by 15, since beating a shocking Ulster 43-0 in September.

Scarlets have been poor all season however they haven't been shipping massive defeats, the worst being away to Stade in H-Cup game. This is a derby and after winning last week against a weakened Cardiff they still won and are on a bit of revival.

I find it hard to believe that the Osprey's will suddenly be able to flick on a switch and beat a team like Scarlets by 18 points, who even if they are playing bad, always keep the score competitive and Jones will always take his penalties.

Recommendation:- Scarlets +17.5pts for 2 points @ 2.1, Won Scarlets +7.5pts for 0.5pts @ 3.75 Loss

Currently in Profit: €1642 or 27.83% return on investment.

H-Cup Round 3

The H-Cup is back after a really busy month of rugby, I don't know what it is about December rugby but I just love it in the build up for Christmas. Lets hope we can pick out a few bets to help stuff Santa's sack ;)

Ulster v Scarlets

Scarlets may have lost the Llanelli in their name, If I were one of their fans I'd be more concerned with the fact they they've lost the ablity to win. They've won just one game in the last five and that was in the EDF. Granted last week against Munster they were missing four of their front liners however Munster never play well after Autumn and before a H-Cup round. Thier away form has been poor all season only getting victorys against Ulster (who were shocking at the start of the season) and Dragons in early October.

Ulster meanwhile are kicking on strong as Matt Williams's side finally seem to be playing a full 80mins with a tough defence and strong straight line runners. They've lost Nagusa this weekend however they've got Danelli and Trimble back from injury. More importantly, Humph's Jr. showed a text book kicking display last week missing only one from about 7. With his boot on fire and Scarlets stuttering and seemingly finding it hard to get tries Ulster look to be better prepared, fresh and on form.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts @2.05 for 2pts. Won

Edinburgh v London Wasps

I've always been sceptical of Wasps ability and they really haven't clicked at all this season and have been very hit and miss. They are going to have plenty of internationals returning this week, but after England's display in November you can't say any of them are on form. Meanwhile, Scotland travel the safe road and some individuals are improving and Edinburghs team is as well. They are practically full strength tomorrow.

More importantly Edinburgh got an excellent away win to Castre (which effectively ended their interest in this years H-Cup) after being on the receiving end of a bad defeat to Leinster. Barring that Leinster win, which was a case of 4/5 errors in 20 mins but an overall solid performance, I think Edinburgh will have the beating of Wasps. They have an excellent home record and considering Wasps away record is mixed of late to full strength squads I think the evens on offer for Edinburgh is excellent. Especially if some bookies have them down at -2.5pts.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh to win @2.0 for 1.5pts. Lost


Clermont v Munster

Just looking at the game coming up.

Munster are way under priced for this game. They got a bonus point from a last minute try after Clermont gave up after getting three tries in the first half in this game last year.

Clermont have been erratic away from home but have shown up and performed each big home game. Beating Toulouse and Stade. At 1.8 to win at home against Munster who haven't played together properly for 6 (they rested some players last week) weeks it appears a steal. Munster are missing Tipoki which is big because Barry Murphy isn't the greatest in defence.

The handicap of -4.5 is nice as well but I'm happy to take the match odds and that price.

Recommendation:- Clermont to win @1.8 for 2pts.Won

Currently in profit: €1312.08 (13.12pts) and a 24.07% ROI