Six Nations Betting - 3rd Round

Leaving work (still on the clock GR) but just wanted to get my tips up.

France v Wales

What is Marc up to? A new 9, 10 partnership who have barely had two full days to train together this week plus Baby hasn't played 10 since September. This decision isn't as bad as Bergamasco in the first round but is equally as puzzling. Combined with the fact the French players played at the weekend, they aren't fresh or prepared. If Philips can break a line this week they are in trouble.

Wales haven't been playing their best but if they play as they can (and offload this time) they'll beat France. Last week they were concerned with beating England rather than playing well. If they play today France could be in trouble. I'm not the only one who thinks Wales are better prepared click here.

Recommendation: Wales Halftime/Fulltime @ 2.4 for 1pts

Ireland v England

Last time England came they were in rag order. It was possibly one of the weakest teams that ever travelled to Dublin, I was not suprised with the result, especially as most of their players played the week before. This year they aren't much better however their expectations are a lot lower.

Ireland will win this game but I couldn't trust us in the handicap, everything says we should beat them by 10 or 11 points but I'd wait until the first ten mins are up to see what England are trying to do. I really don't think they'll have a plan to beat Ireland, but merely to stop Ireland as they did against Wales two weeks ago. We'll either win by 4 points or 14. One thing is with England getting sin bins like its going out of fashion ROG will have plenty of opportunities to kick for penalties.

Recommendation: Ireland Halftime/Fulltime @1.76 for 3pts and first scoring play, Ireland penalty @ 2.82 for 0.5pt.

Best of luck at the weekend and hope you turn a profit!

Magners League Tips Betting Team News 21/2/09

An International break allows both fringe players for the international teams and provincials come together to all stick their hands up for places.

Dragons v Ulster

It been a good weekend for Irish provinces and I don't see it stopping here. Dragons have improved this season however it seems that the Welsh teams this weekend seem to be a little off form. The fact a good bunch of these Ulster players that are playing today played last week for the A game should give them a little more sharpness. The Dragons did play a development game last week however none of their forwards played in it, leading to the belief that Ulster should have the advantage up front.

The one worry in the Ulster team is they are missing Wallace and Ferris, key players in the backs and forwards respectively and Wallace's absence only highlighting an average 12, 13 partnership. Cave has strong running ability but needs Wallace to create him pace and slick passing. However on the wing Danelli is an excellent strong runner and is bound to cause damage against the Dragons. Reading an interview with Ulster No. 8, Chris Henry they are really keen to point out that the league is their only salvation this year from a poor start and its their major focus.

This will probably be an open game and we should expect some high scoring. In the six nations break last year these teams also met but in Ravenhill which saw Ulster win comfortably. Dragons do have almost a full squad to choose from but I think Ulster are better than where they were last year and missing 3 internationals Matt Williams still has kept the team fresh all year to allow experienced players fill the gaps.

Recommendation:- Ulster to win @2.15 on Betfair for 1pt Lost & total tries over 3.5pts @1.8 on Paddy Powers for 2pts Won.

Munster v Edinburgh

I'll be brief as the game is about to kick off.

Munster suffered a few late changes with Ryan out. Every game they have played without POC and ROG they have struggled. I don't think Edinburgh are any great shakes however +11.5pts is too nice considering Patterson should keep the score competitive.

Recommendation - Edinburgh +11.5 @2.1 for 1.5points Lost.

Scarlets v Leinster

I'll never claim to be an expert on Welsh rugby but I have follow Scarlets closely (to my punting expense) this season. They have stuttered through the season maintaining a decent league position without really exploding into life in any games, see Glasgow Warrior game at home where I put up a big bet, and failed.

Without Jones they turn to Preistland who is a decent player however he lacks the game controlling ability of Stephen Jones. Without two Jones' and two forwards Scarlets probably don't have the strength in depth. Being an eternal optimist Leinster do! Darcy is back to his best position and they've abandoned Nacewa at 10 and returned Dr. Phil. It is a very strong backline with two youngsters with promising McFadden and debutant Paul O'Donoghue, both of whom played well in an A game last week. Also it is a very strong forward pack with O'Kelly and Elsom providing some leadership and Healy coming back from a massive A game with Ireland last week.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the handicaps lines open up for this one when there was a 6 point spread difference between bookies. I luckily got Leinster +3 last night with Boyles which was a crazy price as Paddy's clearly fancy Leinster, they were -3 on the handicap. Boyles have changed their line to Leinster +1 now but they stupidly haven't changed their prices on the alternative handicap markets. A bit of an arbing opp as they have Leinster -3 at 2.68 in their alternative handicap market and you could probably lay Leinster -2.5 for 2.1.

This will be a close game with the lead changing through points kicking but Leinster should click by the second half. Importantly watching Cardiff last night it could be a pointer that the Welsh teams aren't the freshest and don't have a full game in them. Leinster in the mean time have played A game and their fringe internationals played an A game too.


Recommendation: Halftime/Fulltime - Scarlets/Leinster @ 7.0 for 0.5pts Lost. Leinster to win @2.0 for 1.5 points Won.

Current Profit: €855 or 8.55pts with a 9.4% ROI

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6 Nations Round 2 Rugby Betting Tip and Team News

Wales v England 6 Nations Team News and Betting

I sat down on Monday and thought to myself, what price was a I willing to back Wales against England after their respective performances last weekend. I thought Wales -12.5 was about what I expected to be stuck up on the board and I would probably still back them at that for a point or two.

Low and behold a few hours later, two bookies had Wales at -8 and a few others at -9. I jumped for joy. English bookies have over inflated opinions of their egg chasers, clearly seen before last Autumn with the NZ game, where the handicap line was less than 20. I was expecting more of an over reaction from their terrible performance last weekend so starting off at -8pt was just very surprising.

The fact is these English players don't have direction, ability and a chance against a strong attacking Welsh side. England were listless at the weekend and Bergamasco was their man of the match as he created everything for them. They are aimless with the forward play and seem obsessed to keep running up the 1st channel even when it isn't working. Against Italy's blitz defence all they tried was picking and driving around the fringes. Sure Ellis made a few decent breaks but that was because of Italian turnovers and a scrum half disaster in blue. Last week England rucked and drove 25% of their ball while Wales did barely 10% but handled Scotland's attempts when they opted for that. England are extremely limited in their ability with ball in hand. Click on the link for English game betting review of their last game, makes so good points on how England haven't progressed since the Autumn.

Wales have a few injury concerns with Henson, Williams, Ryan Jones but even still if they play their high intensity game the English may just simply collapse. Goode did a job last weekend but with relentless Welsh running and offloading his kicking game is limited especially against a team who can counter. Looking at last weekends stats England kicked 24% of all possession at Twickenham whilst Wales playing away kicked only 10%. If England keep doing this they are only going to play to Wales strengths.

The Welsh's biggest victory over England is 25-0 only 104 years ago! With the average points scored in this tie at 24. The only history I'll really be looking at this game is the coaching record for each of the management teams. That speaks volumes and can clearly tells the future.

Oh and Wales are at home as well, -9 for the Champions is crazy.

Recommendation:- Wales -9pts for 3 points

6 Nations Rugby Betting 1st Round Team News and Tips

Well just back from Donnybrook and lets just say I'm not a happy punter. England are a bunch of fairies and if their 'A' team are anything to go by they can't put up a fight.

England v Italy Betting

Right, Johnson has gone back to square one, if in doubt, call your in mates. What Goode is doing in this team is unbelievable, on step forward seven back. Sure Cipirani has played poorly since returning from injury but come on, Goode when playing good is only average on an international stage. England and their management don't have a clue what they want to do. Come to think of it they do, damage limitation.

Italy meanwhile have thrown a few selection Hail Mary's out there with Mauro Bergomasco at scrum half. Also they've another new 10. However they start the 6 nations well and almost beat Ireland last year in Croke Park.

This game won't be pretty and Italy have the forwards to dominate a pathetic English pack, however Italy are very unlikely to convert any chances they get with ball in hand. I expect England to win, but not by much. If you were lucky to get the +18pt on Italy some bookies were offering well done. I'm still confident on the +15pts.

Recommendation: Italy +15pts @2.0 for 1pt Lost and England for the wooden spoon @17.0 for 0.5pts.

Ireland v France

I think for this game we must have two of the most polar styled coaches you could have ever have. Eddie O'Sullivan on one side, oh sorry I mean Declan Kidney (Diet Eddie) up against Marc Leave me alone I'll do it my way.

Both these teams had a lack lustre Autumn Internationals. Sure Ireland got their placing but they beat two poor teams, Argentina are nothing without Contepomi and Hernandez. Importantly Ireland did not look like improving while France tried to go back to Laporte-esque boring tactics against the bigger teams on tour. Lievremont has realised the error of his ways and all this week has talked about and selected a team that will go out to play. Ireland have selected their best squad however are they going to improve enough from the Autumn internationals to beat a team that has beaten them the last seven times they have met? I'm not convinced, the French see Ireland as given for a win at this stage and will try and run at them/us.

The key in this game is which of these teams can improve the most this season, I'm gutted to say it but it is going to be very hard for Kidney to improve this squad in a manner to win a 6 nations. We've got the same players in the same key positions for the past few years and they haven't done it, why should it change now? Lievremont on the other hand has sent out all the right signals that they are going to go for it, play high risk rugby and try and win. What team played high risk rugby last year and won, Wales, while France finished joint second on points difference playing a crazy experimental team the whole way through.

My heart will be cheering on Ireland and I hope I get this call wrong but I feel that it is just going to be same old Ireland again. We've let ourselves get optimistic again because the provinces are doing ok, but we've been here before. The fact is our forwards will match if not beat France's but Leinster's backs are stuttering and we've got the same backs coach Ireland at the moment. They just don't have the skills to break lines and score tries. If they selected Humphries Og, Wallace and Cave we could open up teams by running from deep.

For a team that has beaten Ireland 7 out of 7 in previous meetings a price of 2.54 is juicy to take up.

Recommendation: France to win @ 2..54 for 1.5pts on Betfair Lost

Current Profit: 11.45pts or 14.05% return on investment.

Even against a poor opposition could you imagine Ireland opening a team like this?

Ireland A vs. English Saxons Betting Pics

Rugby Ken's Magners League and Heineken Cup Betting

Ireland A team vs. English Saxons

Looking at the Irish and English A sides I ask myself, "are these teams 6 times worse than their respective full International squads"? Well if I want to go watch Ireland play France on Saturday I'll pay six times the €15 I'm going to pay to watch this match tonight. So at least I've found some value on rugby this weekend!

Some would actually argue that the Saxons players should really be on the first side as Johnson reverts to type and goes old school with his full side. I don't blame him for sticking Sir Charge Down Ciprani in this squad as he needs game time and to restore his confidence. However he won't do it in this game, this won't be a classic.

Co-incidentally Ireland have another low on confidence no.10 starting as well, Johnny Sexton. Their backline is looking strong enough around the edges but would not match the English centres and wingers. However their defensive abilities are strong with Trimble and Duffy showing some good experience and Sexton's kicking game is actually quite good. The Irish centre partnership is slightly worrying due to its lack of expierence however this will be a forwards dominated game. I really think that the Irish pack are superior compared to England's with a good blend of youth and expierence. Jennings and Best will love any opportunity they get to 'front up' and even if the front row is a little weak, I think our back row can easily beat their all Harlequinns back row.

What will impact the most on this game is the weather, see photo from 8am this morning. Just for you I cycled past Donnybrook at 8pm last night (Thursday) and walked into the grounds to have a look. It was still covered in about 5cm (a couple of inches for you Saxons) of snow and was very mucky and slushy. Today will be no classic of a game and England's advantage in the backs will be nullified because of the heavy feet conditions, you wouldn't be able to side step a corner flag. Also I had a look at the Schools Cup fixtures and league fixtures and there have been 3 games played in Donnybrook in the last 7 days. It's been raining or snowing heavily in Dublin since Saturday so we've had at least two games played in poor conditions. This pitch has to be cut up.

So free flowing rugby it probably won't be and to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if it was called off. It won't be raining during the game but it will be a tough match to score tries in so you have got to be looking at a low scoring game.

Recommendation: Total Match Points, under 37.5pts @ 2.0 for 2pts on Betfair or 2.0 under 37pts with Bet365.

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