Friday, February 6, 2009

6 Nations Rugby Betting 1st Round Team News and Tips

Well just back from Donnybrook and lets just say I'm not a happy punter. England are a bunch of fairies and if their 'A' team are anything to go by they can't put up a fight.

England v Italy Betting

Right, Johnson has gone back to square one, if in doubt, call your in mates. What Goode is doing in this team is unbelievable, on step forward seven back. Sure Cipirani has played poorly since returning from injury but come on, Goode when playing good is only average on an international stage. England and their management don't have a clue what they want to do. Come to think of it they do, damage limitation.

Italy meanwhile have thrown a few selection Hail Mary's out there with Mauro Bergomasco at scrum half. Also they've another new 10. However they start the 6 nations well and almost beat Ireland last year in Croke Park.

This game won't be pretty and Italy have the forwards to dominate a pathetic English pack, however Italy are very unlikely to convert any chances they get with ball in hand. I expect England to win, but not by much. If you were lucky to get the +18pt on Italy some bookies were offering well done. I'm still confident on the +15pts.

Recommendation: Italy +15pts @2.0 for 1pt Lost and England for the wooden spoon @17.0 for 0.5pts.

Ireland v France

I think for this game we must have two of the most polar styled coaches you could have ever have. Eddie O'Sullivan on one side, oh sorry I mean Declan Kidney (Diet Eddie) up against Marc Leave me alone I'll do it my way.

Both these teams had a lack lustre Autumn Internationals. Sure Ireland got their placing but they beat two poor teams, Argentina are nothing without Contepomi and Hernandez. Importantly Ireland did not look like improving while France tried to go back to Laporte-esque boring tactics against the bigger teams on tour. Lievremont has realised the error of his ways and all this week has talked about and selected a team that will go out to play. Ireland have selected their best squad however are they going to improve enough from the Autumn internationals to beat a team that has beaten them the last seven times they have met? I'm not convinced, the French see Ireland as given for a win at this stage and will try and run at them/us.

The key in this game is which of these teams can improve the most this season, I'm gutted to say it but it is going to be very hard for Kidney to improve this squad in a manner to win a 6 nations. We've got the same players in the same key positions for the past few years and they haven't done it, why should it change now? Lievremont on the other hand has sent out all the right signals that they are going to go for it, play high risk rugby and try and win. What team played high risk rugby last year and won, Wales, while France finished joint second on points difference playing a crazy experimental team the whole way through.

My heart will be cheering on Ireland and I hope I get this call wrong but I feel that it is just going to be same old Ireland again. We've let ourselves get optimistic again because the provinces are doing ok, but we've been here before. The fact is our forwards will match if not beat France's but Leinster's backs are stuttering and we've got the same backs coach Ireland at the moment. They just don't have the skills to break lines and score tries. If they selected Humphries Og, Wallace and Cave we could open up teams by running from deep.

For a team that has beaten Ireland 7 out of 7 in previous meetings a price of 2.54 is juicy to take up.

Recommendation: France to win @ 2..54 for 1.5pts on
Betfair Lost

Current Profit: 11.45pts or 14.05% return on investment.

Even against a poor opposition could you imagine Ireland opening a team like this?


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