Heineken Cup Round 5

Leinster v Brive

As always the question many ask for this game is will the French side bother turn up? I'd rather be asking are Leinster ready to turn up?

I don't think Leinster will lose this one, and you'd hope not at a price of 1.02. To be honest though, two teams in the Heineken cup should have such disparging odds as was shown by Treviso earlier this season when Perps came to visit.

With Leinster not having played a game since shortly after Christmas, Jennings and Sexton needing game time and the fact that often when a team gets to 3 tries kicking the points isn't an option I think Brive in the handicap are worth a shout. Leinster have famously struggled even when in good form to put teams to bed when they need a bonus point, however it never stopped them progressing. Remember London Irish only got their bonus point in the last minute in their game against Brive.

Brive haven't their strongest team out but as was seen with Montaubaun in Munster last year, if you have plenty of non French players they still like to take a scalp or put up a fight. Plus they are match fit, have regained some form and won't be encountering anything close to dry hard running pitch which would favour Leinster. With a new coach at Brive players should be out to impress and stick their hands up as they are only a few points off H-Cup qualification again now in the leauge..

Recommendation: Brive +30 at evens for 1.5pts with Boylesports Won. First scoring play, Leinster penalty @2.75 for 1pt with all bookies Lost.

Yesterday's bets:

Ulster v Edinburgh - Ulster HT/FT @ 1.73 for 1pt with Stan James. Lost
Connacht v Montpellier - Connacht -6 @ 1.91 for 2pts with plenty of bookies. Won
Glasgow v Dragons - Glasgow HT/FT @ 1.86 for 1 pt with Betfair. Won

Magners League Jan 2nd

Update - Leinster game has just be cancelled.

Sorry I haven't been posting much over Christmas but some of the games have been unattractive in terms of value. Today is certainly the case in Ireland but not so in Scotland.

Edinburgh v Glasgow

Currently there is sleet showers in Edinburgh and they had Baltic conditions over night, actually where didn't? I was just a point off on unders in Firhill and with Edinburgh having the home advantage today they'll probably stop a strong Glasgow side from kicking plenty of points.

Edinburgh aren't scoring tries and I can't see it being turned around today. Glasgow should be good for a win although they haven't got one here since 2000 but they are playing well.

Recommendation: Glasgow +5 for 1pt with Paddy Powers WON, Under 34 points at evens for 2 points with William Hill LOST.

Connacht v Leinster

Leinster have 9 internationals but you wouldn't be inspired by their performance last week which contained plenty of handling errors. Connacht with about 4 ex Leinster players are always up for this but it's too hard to predict where this is going to go.

I'm going to stay away from this game but my gutt says Connacht might actually nip it in the outright. Leinster had trouble last season motivating themselves for this game, maybe they won't make the same mistake however as we saw with the Dragons away resting a lot of players can drop the squads motivation.

Ulster v Munster

This is an in-running game or betting once you see the pitch for me as you really got to see the conditions in Ravenhill before each game. Rain/sleet is predicted at 6pm according to BBC so the under 35 points with Hills at evens is probably something that won't stay for long if it arrives.

I've thoroughly enjoyed watching Ulster and with a first choice squad back and a strong performance that lacked international finishing (which has now returned) they are deserved favourites. However given the level of their performance in Thomand last time I would expecting odds of 1.8 in the outright.

Really it boils down to how Munster will peform. Ulster should dominate them in the second row with much stronger back three and Humphries and Wallace should be more creative than Warwick who is slotting in at 10. Personally I think Ulster will either win by 10 or lose.

Recommendation: Ulster -9pts at 3.0 for 0.5pts with Will Hills.LOST

Christmas Magners League Fixtures

Leinster v Ulster

I'm quite suprised by the amount of changes that Ulster have made for this game as I really thought they would give it a go. Unfortunately I think they might be looking to damage limitation on the day.

Their centre partnership have played a lot together but are by no means a match for Leinster's and with Reddan showing some strong form and with quick ball because of a dominant pack in front of him expect the Ulster backs to be facing an on slaught.

Leinster have traditionally played well over the Christmas season and I don't see it stopping here. Considering they've beaten Ulster by over 25 points in each their last two home games the minus 13 handicap on Leinster looks good. Add this to the fact that in three of their last four games Ulster have shipped over 20 points in each you'd have to fancy a full strengh Leinster.

Recommendation: Leinster -13points for 2pts with most bookies LOST

Scarlets v Ospreys

I mentioned a few weeks ago before the Ospreys Munster game that the Ospreys were focusing on key games. If they aren't focusing on this game after watching the Scarlets in the last two games they must be crazy.

Luckily they have a strong team out and sure derbies are always close events but the last two meetings of these teams has seen Ospreys win both home and away. Also their next two games against are home to Cardiff and away to Ulster which they may seek to take a hit on.

Having witnessed how poor the Scarlets have been in the past week it's no suprise to hear they have only won once in seven. They are leaking tries left right and centre and have no sort of blitz defence. This type of defence is what hurts teams like Leinster and Ospreys. I'm sure they'll be more competitive infront of a sold out stadium however I reckon 40-50% of the stadium will be following the boys in black from up the road.

With a strong running backline and what looks like hard ground I fully expect the Ospreys to win this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -3pts at evens for two points with Bluesquare or 888sport. WON

Munster v Connacht

After defying all the odds the true Munster showed their colours for a fantastic victory last week. As for myself, I was a non-believer and one of the doubters in their ability to pull off even a bonus point loss and I never seem to learn from my mistakes with these lads.

Connacht had another win in the Challenge Cup and look to be improving as the season continues. They generally grab a derby scalp or two during the year but these are always at home. They've put out a strong side and the one improvement they have applied this year is more powerful back play with the strong running N Ta'auso.

Munster have made nine changes to last weeks victory and although their replacements are capable players this is by no means a walk in the park for them. Last season Munster fielded a slightly more inform and stronger side than this and won by 15 points. Tomorrow's team has a bit to much reconstruction for my liking and for a backline that has only clicked once or twice this season there are a few too many green players. Importantly Munster have started every half slow this year and with this derby game I'd expect the same.

Recommendation: Half time handicap Connacht +7 @ 1.91 (most bookies) for 1pt. LOST

Glasgow v Edinburgh

The last few Christmas games between these teams have always been high scoring affairs. Briefly looking at the teams today they both seem at almost full strength and the handicap line of Glasgow -4 seems about right, if a touch generous for a Glasgow team who are top of the table. They've been playing well all season and Firhill has turned into a bit of a fortress.

Edinburgh of late haven't been scoring tries but getting some results. You'd have to favour Glasgow at home here however I don't think it's going to be as free scoring as previous games have been. Edinburgh haven't been scoring tries and statistically you can't have 5 clashes of these teams going to unders. If the 'total points' is priced up on previous meetings it could be a bit of value.

Recommendations - Glasgow to win -4 @1.91 (with most bookies) for 1 point WON

Heineken Cup Round 3 Tipping

Saturday and Sunday Games

I'm off on the train to Llanelli very early tomorrow morning so I haven't had the time to check the other games.

Initial thoughts looking at the fixture list but these are by no means recommendations

Viadana v Ospreys - If Osprey's are missing key players they may miss the handicap
Ulster v Stade - Ulster need Wallace to win this, possibly could be 10 pt win by Stade if Glasgow beat them by 7pts last weekend.
Cardiff v Toulouse - Perps did well yesterday. If Toulouse have decent team they should beat the handicap.
Brive v Irish - In-running game. If Brive are up for it Irish could be in trouble as they've lost form.
Llanelli v Leinster - I'm at the game so look out for me. Leinster on paper have great team but the 9/10 is weak. If Berne starts well we might make it, otherwise I'm on unders.

Enjoy the weekend and hope you find a few winners.


Glasgow v Gloucester

In theory this game will probably be more interesting than the one in Thomond. You've got two teams who appear to be at full strength and a tight handicap line favouring the home side. A classic rugby game.

The slight favouring of home side of evenly matched teams is fair enough, personally I think it should be more than just slight in this case. I'll always favour a Magners league team performing well against an on/off performing Guinness Premiership team.

Gloucester don't seem to be playing brilliant this season and can't seem to get any consistent form. In fact the one thing they have done consistently is lost away from home winning only one in seven and shipping an average of almost twenty nine points . Whilst they've beat Leicester at home with a lucky knock-on, Leicester were missing Flood who actually helps them score tries. Also they seem to be coming back late and starting their games slowly, whilst Glasgow are the opposite.

Glasgow have only lost twice at home this season both in the Heineken Cup. Once to the best team in Wales, the Dragons and rather unluckily against Biarritz. They are also on the back of a good win away to Ulster who themselves have gone off the boil lately but aren't easy to beat at home.

Both teams possessing strong kickers but Parks gets the nod, the fella just doesn't miss. Personally I think Glasgow are playing well as a unit and have grown up a lot this season. They're top of the Magners league at the moment and have to win this game to hold any hope of getting through. I'll wear my Magners league blinkers on this one and go for Glasgow.

Recommendation: Glasgow to win @ 1.73 for 1 point with Tote Sport. Glasgow/Glasgow HT/FT for 1 points @2.5 on Tote Sport. Glasgow -2 pts for 1 point with many bookies.

Magners League Round 8 Betting

Ospreys v Munster

The Magners league gets a fair amount of stick because some provinces take the hit on certain games in order focus on the Heineken Cup. Looking at the Munster team this weekend you can't say that they are taking this game lightly.

Ospreys however are a bit of a different story. Whilst they are ravaged by injuries some of the comments made by their coach in the press are quite worrying for their chances;

"Selection has been made with a few things in mind, we need to send out a team that will be competitive against Munster while taking into account the heavy workload that some of the international boys have had over the last month, and the big games that we've got coming up over the next few months."

Ospreys are playing Viadana away next week which they should win and they'll be pushing for a bonus point victory. Looking at their team, it's not the weakest they have ever put out but their back line is shaky.

The weather is definately going to be a factor for this game with rain predicted. Munster's scrum and lineout should have the edge and you could see during the international period the Irish players were getting to full fitness after a stuttering start for club and country. The only worry is their backrow who certainly are less experienced than the Ospreys that been said the boys in black haven't fired all season. Fitness will be a concern for the Ospreys as haven't played any rugby at any level for two weeks whilst even the non Munster internationals have been playing A games.

Munster haven't lost to Ospreys in their last four meetings and I don't think it's going to change here. They should win this with ease and their is a sense of urgency for them to get their season in order. Comments from the Ospreys manager for me show that winning on Saturday isn't their ultimate priority and Munster should have the power and sharpness to win no matter the conditions.

Recommendation: Munster to win @1.75 for 2pts with Sporting Bet LOST, Munster -2 @1.91 for 1pt with most bookies LOST.

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time to write preview. Both teams normally start well after International break however Ulster missing three key players and Glasgow have a strong side. Bad weather as per usual expected in Ravenhill.

Recommendation for tonight's game: Glasgow +7.5pts @1.9 for 1 point on Betfair WON. Under 35.5 pts @1.83 for 1 point on Bet365 LOST.