Magner's w/c 28/11/08

Right close to kick off I'm afraid.

Only one stand out bet this friday night.

Ulster v Connacht:

While Bradley's side have for the first time stuck out a 1st string squad in an away game, they still have a terrible habit of conceding away from home, over 100 points in last two away games.

Ulster are on up. After a convincing 20-6 win against Munster (and it could have been more) before the break they looked like clicking. Their Islander winger could really be a great buy and speedster sides can tear apart Connacht (see the London Irish game) with Nagusa and McCrea possessing plenty of pace, Connacht could be in for trouble. Also Ulster only have league to play for and this is a 6pointer in terms of European qualification.

I'm going for Ulster in the handicap. They went into the break with better form but also looked at a turning point. Crucially they have had a friendly game during the break while Connacht's was cancelled.

Recommendation:- Ulster -13.5pts for 3pts at evens won & Ulster - 26.5pts for 0.5pts @ 4.2 won, all on Betfair of course!

Scarlets v Munster

This is too close to call. While the 2nd string Munster side showed great passion against the AB's, they don't play well after the November breaks when the 1st string return. This was the case in '06 and '05 season (07 doesn't count because no break as Nov internationals didn't happen).

If they had a were closer to zero I'd go for them as Scarlets are missing five first teamers as Wales are playing tomorrow.

If you are dying for a bet, I'd go for under's just on the hunch both teams are focused more on next weeks game.

Leinster v Dragons

Leinster go into this game with plenty of injuries (10 in fact) key ones being Van Der Linde, Contepomi, Cullen. Dragons have a few injuries but have a solid in uninspiring back line who last time played together held Bath to 13-9 in the H-Cup. However their last game was 27 days ago.

Crucially as was seen last night, friendlies during the Autumn break is key, one major advantage in the fact that are Leinster 'A' players replacing the injured front liners are those that have played 2 games in the last two weeks. Players like O'Brien, Healy and even some of the first 15 who weren't on the International squad have been ticking over with 3 Leinster 'A' games. McFadden who starts at centre appearently greatly impressing in those games. He looked very promising last year but got a bad knee injury and never got a chance by the time he returned.

While I don't expect a 30-40 point victory, like the last time Dragons were here, if you look at all the other Welsh teams last night they were clearly rusty. Dragons aren't as bad as last year but with almost 4 weeks without a competitive game I don't think they'll be fully up for this Munster win game for Leinster.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 18.5pts for 1.5pts @2.1 on Betfair. LostIf you have a Bet365 account take advantage of the 1.71 on offer for the second half being the highest scoring half for 1pt lost.

Currently profit: €1110.58 (11.1058 pts) and a 22.66% ROI

Back to the Future, again.

After an expected but unspectacular win against Canada Ireland now go into this Saturday’s game with New Zealand needing to show true form. But why are experts surprised with his omissions of Kearney, O’Kelly, Reddan and promising Earls for the starting 15 against the Kiwi’s?

When Kidney signed on the dotted line for Ireland many were excited by this hugely successful coach taking on the Irish mantle. After adding plenty of international experience to his coaching panel the Irish public were guilty of going into this Autumn campaign expecting a new brush and some impressive scalps. In late October we saw a massive panel selected for the training camp, no surprises there. However with the new guns, Earls, Fitzgerald centre in flying out of the blocks this season then why are we and the analysts surprised with a tried a tested team name for this Saturday’s game?

Has everyone forgotten who we hired? Kidney, is first and foremost a man who built a conservative yet winning nature down in Munster. Be it the weather in Limerick or a belief in a system, we only once in his career saw and expansive game and that was because of his Kiwi signings last year. To be honest I thought this new expansive nature was completely overplayed, as highlighted in the snooze fest last 30mins his final game in charge in Cardiff last season. Do people not remember the ill-fated year at Leinster when he had O’Driscoll, Horgan, Hickie, Contepomi, Dempsey and Darcy at his exposal? Let’s just say they didn’t ignite any fires that season. Last season at Munster we saw both David Wallace and Denis Leamy play first centre for a game and remember when hardly any back scored a try for nearly the first quarter of the season following their first Heineken Cup win?

Why are there question marks over Fitzgerald and Earls not being in first centre when they both don’t have 5 games between them this year in that position? Kidney wants bashers and aggressive players or even no. 7’s there. Having radio and newspaper analysts screaming for these selections and their bewilderment of them not being there is just stupid. Come on lads, its your job to analyse and clearly you have not analysed the man that is Kidney enough. How can you question why Dempsey is starting at fullback, sure Kearny had a great tour last winter but isn’t starting in that position for his club. I’m sure Geordan Murphy is running past journey-men tackles in the Premiership but remember with ‘Konservative with a capital K, Kidney’, he see the truth that Dempsey is the consummate error-free option. His toughest selection at scrum half is not as hard as everyone thinks. Why should we be surprised Stringer isn’t starting, remember he dropped him last season. When it comes to Reddan v O’Leary, remember Kidney goes with what he knows and that is an ex-hurler from Cork not a player he didn’t stop moving to Wasps from Munster.

There is no doubt he is a winning coach and like most coaches they have a formulae, but why did we think Kidney would push the boat out? Remember all of this Autumn series is like a cup final for a ranking points. Maybe because we (or more particularly the pundits) became so expectant under Steady Eddie O’Sullivan and expected a bright new expansive hope in Kidney. All I have to say to those expecting adventurous new era of Irish rugby is, “come on did you not watch Munster play for the last few years, or did you fall asleep watching”?

Team for NZ: Horan, Flannery, Hayes, O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Quinlan, Wallace, Jennings, O'Leary, O'Gara, Trimble, O'Driscoll, Bowe, Horgan, Dempsey.

Magners League Weekend 24/10/08

Well its back to the Cider league after watching some of the Irish provinces guzzling in high quality in the larger cup.

The Braveheart's v Leinster

All the talk this week from Leinster camp has seen Cheika has been very pragmatic, pointing out that Leinster lose these games around this time of year and they can't let it happen again. Leinster are going in on excellent Heineken cup form however their Managers league form shows them as losing their last two games. However you would have to go back a long way to find out when Leinster lost three Magners league games in row. The important note from the last two games is that they are creating and taking their chances, something which didn't happen against Munster and Connacht.

Glasgow have been completely erratic this season, shipping just under an average of 20 points each game, but seem capable of scoring on occasions. Having any chinks in your defence is not ideal going against the Leinster backline. Even if Glasgow perform to their best the Leinster defence has still only shipped 5 tries in four games. Leinster are without O'Driscoll and gentle giany O'Kelly, but are replaced with Johnny 'Contraception' Sexton and the inform Devin 'High Tower' Toner. I was surprised with the conservative handicap of just two penalties or 6pts. If Leinster come out all guns blazing it could be 10-12 points victory.

Recommendation: Leinster -5.5pts @2.0 for 2pts Lost

Connacht v Edinburgh

Heading way out way west for an earlier kick off at the aptly named Sportsground where we'll see Connacht v Edinburgh. Connacht played two excellent games in a row up until their loss last week convincingly against London Irish. Connacht have always had a problem of form, because just a few injuries can knock them off their stride.

Edinburgh showed last week that they can upset the books and get good wins away from home against Castre. Surprisingly Edinburgh haven't won in Ireland since May 2006, however they have improved since Andy Robinson took over. Even more surprisingly for a Scottish team they do like to throw the ball around but haven't had that many weaker teams to exploit this against of late and I think a tired Connacht could be that team. Connacht have played 4 incredibly tough game in a row.

Connacht, seem to be improving since a terrible start of the season and are trying to play catch up and grab a H-Cup place off the Ulstars. Last week in poor conditions they were exposed by London Irish and if Edinburgh's Simon Webster gets a few chances he'll exploit them. Connacht will put up a brave first half and may be winning but ultimately may not make it past 60 mins.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -3.5pts @1.96 for 1pt on Betfair Won, Halftime/Fulltime - Connacht/Edinburgh 0.5pts @7.0. Lost

Ulster v Munster

Always a heated match and clearly with Leinster losing last night a chance for Munster to really build a big lead at the top of the cider league. Such is the confidence of people in Munster at the moment that they were matched at 1.1 on Betfair to win this game. However this was before the teams were announced they promptly drifted out to 1.5. McGahan has rested pretty much all his front liners and this is a Musnter 'B' team of the highest order, but can a full strength Ulster team put it up to them?

In their last few games their intensity has risen and defensive intensity has been minutely better. They have shipped big points against attacking teams however can this Munster team attack? In their back line they only have one class player at that is Warwick, he'll be key today because of the likely terrible conditions (65mph winds and rain). But looking else where you might have question marks, Hurley (2nd start of the season), Dowling (not creative), Horgan (worst winger in Ireland) and Murphy (still yet to find the form of two years ago). In the pack they have a completely different front five and I just feel they might not have the continuity. Interestingly Munsters worst results this seasonhave been in bad weather, Glasgow and Montabuan. With the weather predicted for tonight, it will most likely be a low scoring encounter. Only the Connacht game last night broke the overs market out 3 games in similar conditions but that is unsuprising as their defence has been attrocious.

Recommendations:- Ulster +5.5pts, 1pt @ 2.0 Won. Total Match points, under 37.5pts for 2 pts @ 1.7 Won

After weekend games current profit is €923.58 for the season so far.

In Kearney We Trust

Saw this video today and thought it was too funny not to share.

Pint of Ken Cup Round Two

Heineken Cup - Round Two

This is really the biggest weekend of rugby so far this season for Irish provinces. Throughout the weekend they’ll be up against what should be their biggest rivals and challengers to getting a ticket to the next round. With Munster and Leinster both getting wins last week with questionable performances and Ulster losing comprehensively, all of the provinces need big performances.

Harlequins v Ulstars

Ulstars have had a torrid season with only one narrow win from six so far. After last week’s game Matt (The Face) Williams was happy with the aggression and hits they were making. If I were Matt I would be more concerned with the fact they don’t have a kicker who can get 60% of their attempts, and they’ve continued their terrible away form which had started last season. They can’t seem to build consistency and Williams has been chopping and changing their kicker all season with Schifcofske (out injured for this game), O’Connor and (Where's?)Wallace all taking charge of the kicking tee at some point.

Clearly confidence is an issue for this team, they have conceded on average of 20 points a game (32 points on average for away matches) and only scored an average of 7.5points away from Ravenhill. Against one of the most attacking teams in England it doesn’t bode well for Ulster. The Medicine woman's team came back strongly in the second half away from home against the Pimpernels last week and even with a 13.5 point handicap their attacking ambition will overcome a weak Ulster travelling defence who can’t take any chances that they are given.

Recommendation: – Harlequinns -15.5 for 3pts. Won

Leinster v Wasps

It’s an age old saying but you have to win your home games and if Leinster have ambitions of doing well this year this is a must win game for them. Wasps, although with a stuttering start to their season, put in an impressive three try haul against a mediocre Castre side.

Analysing their performances last week, both scored the majority of their points in the first half and hardly any in the second. This was ok for Leinster as they were away last week but for Wasps they can’t afford to be a one half team on the road. Leinster have only conceded six tries in six games, but do have a tendency to give away penalties. Wasps are the ultimate cup side, winning the Heineken Cup every year they have got out of their group and always perform in the must win games. However since their pack has lost their talisman Dallaglio they may lack their arrogant edge.

Wasps’ defence has been poor away from home shipping on average 23 points each game this season, expect this game to have tries as primtime O’Driscoll is finding form and cool hands Fitzgearld gets another chance in centre, if there is a nice price in the over’s market it would be a good punt.

Recommendation:- Leinster Halftime/Fulltime for 1pt Won, Total Match Points over 40.5pts for 1 pt Won

Sale v Munster

Last week Munster suffered from being expectant and over ambitious while Sale Sharks pulled out possibly the surprise result of round one. Their away victory against Clermont Auvergne, who had previously only lost one home game in thirty nine was impressive considering their limited playing style. It was very surprising considering Sale’s conservative nature of just grinding out results in the Premiership, where they only have a +3 for/against points tally. Crucially in last weekend’s game they never allowed Clermont to get any continuity to their game or build up on any possession. In terms of tactics, this game could be two teams facing each other in the mirror, both with the same game plan. You’d have to fancy the under’s in the match points markets as it will be a slow and patient game.

With Sale facing some selection problems, Andy 'the looks' Sheridan being only 50/50 and also losing Orsby to a citing, they won’t be going into this game full strength. Munster have doubts over Hokey Tipoki who would be a big loss as a game line breaker. It’s a difficult game to call as can be seen by the handicap difference of just 0.5pt. Ultimately last week we saw two polar performances from these teams but Munster have more scope to improve. I expect Munster to go back to their solid percentages games waiting for a break, Sale will do the same but might not have the class to execute them.

Recommendation: - Game points, under 40.5pts for 2 points Lost, Munster to win outright for 1 point Won.
If I were feeling rich and wanted quick bet I'd go for Munster to score the penalty ;)

Connacht v London Irish

Two massive performances in the past two weeks from the elephant in the IRFU board room. Beating Leinster and more impressively Dax away brings belief back to Bradley's men. Behind the scenes though Dax don't care about this competition and it was a very much a second string Leinster side with the off form Sexton playing the crucial number. They are coming against a serious inform team in the form of the exiles who scored 70 points last week and have beaten some of the top teams in the premiership.

Recommendation: - The Exiles - 7.5pt @1.9 for 3 points Won.