6 Nations week 4

No recommendations this weekend I'm afraid just a few ideas. With Cheltenham and moving to England taking most of the attention this week I haven't had the time to research.

I backed Ireland -6.5pts yesterday myself which obviously came up, albeit with some nail biting involved. England v France is certainly an interesting game. Looking at the form lines Wales have probably showed they aren't the side they were last year in losing to France who looked much better with Parra at scrum half, still France only seem to have one big game followed by a disappointment.

Le Rostbiffs love to ruin France's day however I find they are too short at 2.16. What is interesting is that fact that most bookies have France -2 at 1.91 while you can back them for a straight win at 1.96 on Betfair. You are getting a strong 20% better price on Betfair which you don't see that often for the Betfair rugby markets. I'll be taking advantage of it anyway as I think France will win as they need something out of this season.

If you did fancy France to really open up and play the 3.5 for France -10 on Ladbrokes might also be tempting. Also worth a tickle is Flood v Trin Duc, click here to view market. With England most likely to concede another raft of penalties Trin Duc is a decent shot to come out top at 2.04-2.2.

Best of luck.

Magners League weekend 03/03/2009

After this weekends action Profit Currently: 710.18 or 7.1pts. A 7.07% ROI (posted 08/3/2009)

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time for a write up unfortunately.

Ulster have a strong squad again. The weather isn't great but they should have home advantage and a much stronger pack to make this easily controllable. Glasgow made a late comeback after Cardiff switched off (which they did in the first half last night again).

If it was a nice day for rugby I would have Ulster -12pts and probably punt on the alternative handicap markets but the weather will probably keep it respectable. Glasgow haven't won away since September and are missing a more players through the Internationals

Recommendation: Ulster - 8pts on Boyles or Ladbrokes @1.91 for 1.5pts Won

06/03/2009

Another second string Magners league weekend, where hopefully knowledge is power. I personally find these games great because you get to see emerging players and also see if some squad players are worth their weight in cider.

The Hairsprey's Lite vs. Leinster

I was quite surprised by the handicap line for this game and quickly snapped up the minus 2pts on offer for Leinster by Ladbrokes yesterday evening. Two weeks ago Leinster went over to the Scarlets and got a massive result, winning by two converted tries. Granted it wasn't the greatest Scarlets however this weekend neither is this vintage Ospreys.

Most importantly the Osprey's haven't been playng great this season. They have got results in the league, but mainly by avoiding defeat against poor teams. Tonight Ryan Jones has said these young players will shine as Ospreys are missing 12 first teamers. After watching them against Connacht (the team with the worst away record in the Magners league) they are far from the finished product. They were lucky to lead at half time and only won by 12 points.

Leinster on the other hand are missing only three first teamers and two weeks ago put in a very professional performance and returned to scoring ways. Their new scrum half looked capable, McFadden (as I predicted) played a blinder and Healy proved that he should really be on the Irish 22 soon.

The mid international games are always tricky, but with Osprey's essentially putting up a completely different team to their first team Leinster look worthy favourites. I was suprised with how short the handicap was, I expected minus 7 for Leinster but then again I'm a believer.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 2.5pts @1.9 for 2 points with Betfair , Leinster Halftime/Fulltime 2.62 for 1pt with Ladbrokes and finally Leinster -11pts @3.25 pts for 0.5pts on Ladbrokes.

For some other opinions here for this weekend's game, click here.

Connacht v Cardiff

Connacht need a morale boosting win and 6.30 before the 'daggs' seems to sap the life out of opposing teams. They are practically full strength against a Cardiff side who are missing sprinklings of their first team.

Cardiff were very rusty lask week, sprinting off into a big lead but then letting a weakend Glasgow get back at them. I think the bookies are a little skimpy on the handicap for Connacht here, possibly because they viewed them as keeping it respectable against the Osprey last week. While I thought the Ospreys were just not up to it.

Recommendation: No bet.

Six Nations Betting - 3rd Round

Leaving work (still on the clock GR) but just wanted to get my tips up.

France v Wales

What is Marc up to? A new 9, 10 partnership who have barely had two full days to train together this week plus Baby hasn't played 10 since September. This decision isn't as bad as Bergamasco in the first round but is equally as puzzling. Combined with the fact the French players played at the weekend, they aren't fresh or prepared. If Philips can break a line this week they are in trouble.

Wales haven't been playing their best but if they play as they can (and offload this time) they'll beat France. Last week they were concerned with beating England rather than playing well. If they play today France could be in trouble. I'm not the only one who thinks Wales are better prepared click here.

Recommendation: Wales Halftime/Fulltime @ 2.4 for 1pts

Ireland v England

Last time England came they were in rag order. It was possibly one of the weakest teams that ever travelled to Dublin, I was not suprised with the result, especially as most of their players played the week before. This year they aren't much better however their expectations are a lot lower.

Ireland will win this game but I couldn't trust us in the handicap, everything says we should beat them by 10 or 11 points but I'd wait until the first ten mins are up to see what England are trying to do. I really don't think they'll have a plan to beat Ireland, but merely to stop Ireland as they did against Wales two weeks ago. We'll either win by 4 points or 14. One thing is with England getting sin bins like its going out of fashion ROG will have plenty of opportunities to kick for penalties.

Recommendation: Ireland Halftime/Fulltime @1.76 for 3pts and first scoring play, Ireland penalty @ 2.82 for 0.5pt.

Best of luck at the weekend and hope you turn a profit!

Magners League Tips Betting Team News 21/2/09

An International break allows both fringe players for the international teams and provincials come together to all stick their hands up for places.

Dragons v Ulster

It been a good weekend for Irish provinces and I don't see it stopping here. Dragons have improved this season however it seems that the Welsh teams this weekend seem to be a little off form. The fact a good bunch of these Ulster players that are playing today played last week for the A game should give them a little more sharpness. The Dragons did play a development game last week however none of their forwards played in it, leading to the belief that Ulster should have the advantage up front.

The one worry in the Ulster team is they are missing Wallace and Ferris, key players in the backs and forwards respectively and Wallace's absence only highlighting an average 12, 13 partnership. Cave has strong running ability but needs Wallace to create him pace and slick passing. However on the wing Danelli is an excellent strong runner and is bound to cause damage against the Dragons. Reading an interview with Ulster No. 8, Chris Henry they are really keen to point out that the league is their only salvation this year from a poor start and its their major focus.

This will probably be an open game and we should expect some high scoring. In the six nations break last year these teams also met but in Ravenhill which saw Ulster win comfortably. Dragons do have almost a full squad to choose from but I think Ulster are better than where they were last year and missing 3 internationals Matt Williams still has kept the team fresh all year to allow experienced players fill the gaps.

Recommendation:- Ulster to win @2.15 on Betfair for 1pt Lost & total tries over 3.5pts @1.8 on Paddy Powers for 2pts Won.

Munster v Edinburgh

I'll be brief as the game is about to kick off.

Munster suffered a few late changes with Ryan out. Every game they have played without POC and ROG they have struggled. I don't think Edinburgh are any great shakes however +11.5pts is too nice considering Patterson should keep the score competitive.

Recommendation - Edinburgh +11.5 @2.1 for 1.5points Lost.

Scarlets v Leinster

I'll never claim to be an expert on Welsh rugby but I have follow Scarlets closely (to my punting expense) this season. They have stuttered through the season maintaining a decent league position without really exploding into life in any games, see Glasgow Warrior game at home where I put up a big bet, and failed.

Without Jones they turn to Preistland who is a decent player however he lacks the game controlling ability of Stephen Jones. Without two Jones' and two forwards Scarlets probably don't have the strength in depth. Being an eternal optimist Leinster do! Darcy is back to his best position and they've abandoned Nacewa at 10 and returned Dr. Phil. It is a very strong backline with two youngsters with promising McFadden and debutant Paul O'Donoghue, both of whom played well in an A game last week. Also it is a very strong forward pack with O'Kelly and Elsom providing some leadership and Healy coming back from a massive A game with Ireland last week.

I was pleasantly surprised to see the handicaps lines open up for this one when there was a 6 point spread difference between bookies. I luckily got Leinster +3 last night with Boyles which was a crazy price as Paddy's clearly fancy Leinster, they were -3 on the handicap. Boyles have changed their line to Leinster +1 now but they stupidly haven't changed their prices on the alternative handicap markets. A bit of an arbing opp as they have Leinster -3 at 2.68 in their alternative handicap market and you could probably lay Leinster -2.5 for 2.1.

This will be a close game with the lead changing through points kicking but Leinster should click by the second half. Importantly watching Cardiff last night it could be a pointer that the Welsh teams aren't the freshest and don't have a full game in them. Leinster in the mean time have played A game and their fringe internationals played an A game too.


Recommendation: Halftime/Fulltime - Scarlets/Leinster @ 7.0 for 0.5pts Lost. Leinster to win @2.0 for 1.5 points Won.

Current Profit: €855 or 8.55pts with a 9.4% ROI

For more Magners league betting recommendations click here

6 Nations Round 2 Rugby Betting Tip and Team News

Wales v England 6 Nations Team News and Betting

I sat down on Monday and thought to myself, what price was a I willing to back Wales against England after their respective performances last weekend. I thought Wales -12.5 was about what I expected to be stuck up on the board and I would probably still back them at that for a point or two.

Low and behold a few hours later, two bookies had Wales at -8 and a few others at -9. I jumped for joy. English bookies have over inflated opinions of their egg chasers, clearly seen before last Autumn with the NZ game, where the handicap line was less than 20. I was expecting more of an over reaction from their terrible performance last weekend so starting off at -8pt was just very surprising.

The fact is these English players don't have direction, ability and a chance against a strong attacking Welsh side. England were listless at the weekend and Bergamasco was their man of the match as he created everything for them. They are aimless with the forward play and seem obsessed to keep running up the 1st channel even when it isn't working. Against Italy's blitz defence all they tried was picking and driving around the fringes. Sure Ellis made a few decent breaks but that was because of Italian turnovers and a scrum half disaster in blue. Last week England rucked and drove 25% of their ball while Wales did barely 10% but handled Scotland's attempts when they opted for that. England are extremely limited in their ability with ball in hand. Click on the link for English game betting review of their last game, makes so good points on how England haven't progressed since the Autumn.

Wales have a few injury concerns with Henson, Williams, Ryan Jones but even still if they play their high intensity game the English may just simply collapse. Goode did a job last weekend but with relentless Welsh running and offloading his kicking game is limited especially against a team who can counter. Looking at last weekends stats England kicked 24% of all possession at Twickenham whilst Wales playing away kicked only 10%. If England keep doing this they are only going to play to Wales strengths.

The Welsh's biggest victory over England is 25-0 only 104 years ago! With the average points scored in this tie at 24. The only history I'll really be looking at this game is the coaching record for each of the management teams. That speaks volumes and can clearly tells the future.

Oh and Wales are at home as well, -9 for the Champions is crazy.

Recommendation:- Wales -9pts for 3 points