Magners League Betting 17th & 18th April

Well I've calmed down a bit after last weekends heroics by Leinster and punting prowess. Hopefully we'll be as successful in the punting and keep the nice roll going.

Edinburgh v Leinster

Cheika came out after last week's game and said his players were 'broken' after the win against Quins. The team selection clearly shows that some players are broken and can't even make the the flight over. Leinster's strength in depth has improved in recent seasons however it is more because of players being pushed out of their position and falling down the pecking order at this stage than a new breed of fringe players. Really this is possibly the worst team they could field. Although O'Brien and McFadden are good players, the front row and second row are seriously short of game time and most likely ability. These Leinster players aren't sharp and don't have that much game time especially in the pack.

Edinburgh, who didn't play great two weeks but got a strong result, 16-3 against Cardiff (who went on to beat Toulouse), again name another strong squad here. Leinster's inexperienced front row will suffer (and I'd be surprised if they last). They don't have Rocky who has carried them over the line for numerous games this season and Nacewa at ten is worrying. Edinburgh have strong kickers (they are scoring plenty of drop goals) and play a similar style to the England squad Robinson was involved in, keep the scoreboard ticking over. It won't be a try fest barring terrible defensive errors but won by kickers, of which Leinster don't have one. Nacewa kicked for the Blues but if he was good why hasn't he stepped in for Felipe or even take a few long pot shots?

This game last season saw Leinster lose by 3 points against a weaker Edinburgh side and they (Leinster) were at full strength, remember Edinburgh are genearlly excellent at home. I don't think these fringe Leinster players can focus and keep up the league push here, unfortunately.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -11pts @2.5 for 1.5points on Paddy P's.

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Glasgow v Ulster

Ulster lost two weeks ago against what can only be described as a weakend Ospreys team who's first squad were royally whipped last week. Previously before that they lost by around 25points against Leinster who can't score tries. Matt Williams this season has been saying all the right things but it looks like the spark that they produced around the festive season may have fizzled now that they don't have anything to play for.

Glasgow themselves (as predicted by me!) won away against Llanelli. The Scarlets are all over the place at the moment but stilll it was a very respectable result and try tally by Glasgow and they can play when up for it. I think they'll continue against an improving but ultimately average Ulster defence. Ulster have conceded on average since Jan 23.2points each game on the road whilst the Dragons don't seem to have problems scoring tries but conede a few.

So it should be an open enough game and but with Cave and Nagusa not playing for Ulster (because of form issues) they lack some real pace and O'Connor isn't a game turner at 10 yet, so I can't see where the points are coming from. The Evans brothers are quality Magners league players who in good playing conditions (which it should be tomorrow night) will look to reverse the 12-0 loss to Ulster in March in terrible conditions.

Recommendation: Glasgow -6 for 2pts on Betfair at 2.0. Over 38.5pt @1.95 for 1pt on Betfair

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

Munster v Ospreys

Munster played well and took all the chances required to beat Leinster last week. Ronan O'Gara took his points and they got two tries from soft defending however never looked under severe pressure. I expect this game tomorrow to go the same.

Ospreys are missing Byrne, Henson, Walker in the backs and are weakened slightly in the forwards by injury. Munster have a full strength squad to choose from apart from Tipoki. The Munster forwards should improve from a below average performance last week a should dominate this game and provide their backs, with the vastly improving Earls at second centre, good ball to score.

Ospreys haven't played particularly well all season and all the Welsh teams haven't played consistently well since Christmas. I don't expect this to be a massive try scoring game and even possibly see Munster be outscored in tries but they will win by 10points. Another preview that shares my belief for Munster v Ospreys, click here

Recommendation: Munster to win Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.66 for 2 points, WON. Munster -7.5 @1.92 for 1 pt. WON

Harlequins v Leinster

As can only be expected last week Leinster were berated in the media for a listless performance. I was their shouting them on from the sidelines and maybe I was wearing blinkers but I thought we performed very well and were let down by Felipe's kicking and two very poor attempts at tackling by Horgan and Kearney. These two shocking defensive errors let Munster in to score with their only meaningful attempts at the line. What could be taken out of the game for Leinster was, they had possession, stole 9 balls at the ruck and Rocky Elsom is the greatest back row forward in the world today.

Harlequins have been in excellent form losing only once in 10 games and last week on scraps of possession held back a poor Bath team in the Rec. I've always been of the view that English teams are overrated because of Sky hype and I think this applies here to. Quins have a strong pack however this Leinster pack last week out-scrummed and rucked the best pack in Europe. This Leinster backrow is perfectly balanced and probably the best running back row in Europe.

Quins have an exciting backline themselves with a few in form players and probably the best Kiwi import of the season in Evans at 10, although he is coming back from four weeks off and could be a little rusty. I went against Leinster last week for the simple reason their centre partnership was completely skewed towards a rugby league stsyle. Darcy is not a 13 and Horgan isn't a centre. Those guys don't have the hands to release the rest of the backs. With Brian and Luke back in play this dramatically changes Leinster's potency with ball in hand.

While its a big ask I have to fall back on the belief on what I've been backing all season and that is that English teams are overrated. Felipe needs to and should have his kicking boots back on while Whitaker needs to be quicker (which he was last week).

Leinster opened up at 2.1 and I could never back them at that price. They are now being matched at 2.5 and I think this could even hit 2.6 by lunchtime tomorrow with the English punters coming in on Betfair.

It should be cracker. A more sceptical Heinken Cup Quins v Leinster preview available by click here

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 2.5 for 1 point WON.

Current Profit: €1340.23 or 13.49 points with a 12.41% ROI for the season so far.

Sorry I haven't been posting of late. Been pretty busy with other things and getting over a Grand Slam hangover.

Scarlets v Glasgow

Looking at the results over the past few days the one thing that stands out is that the Welsh sides are playing terrible at the moment. Connacht hammering Gwent last night and Cardiff losing away to Edinburgh. Ospreys obviously got a result but with sharper kicking the game would have gone Ulster's way.

I just have a feeling considering how stop start Scarlets can be and terrible they are at the ruck Glasgow might get something out of this game. Stephen Jones always steadies the ship with the Scarlets but I think they might struggle to win here comfortably.

Recommendation: Glasgow +8 on for 1.5 pts on Boyles Won.

Munster v Leinster

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Leinster last week and thought their execution and patience was excellent. Without a few key players they showed great maturity to win when they easily could have been losing at halftime. However Ulster really bottled it. Watching their game now against a poor Osprey's side the form indicates that Leinster may have been flattered by the result because Ulster seemed to have stepped off the gas again.

Munster last week did what they do so well and got the points, comfortably against a side that has proved tricky to all Irish provinces before. The lineup of each side really indicates the coaches viewpoint of the importance of this game. I think Cheika has slightly written it off by bringing Horgan in from the wing to centre and keep Fitz and O'Driscoll out of the squad. The only reason to have Horgan in their could be to challenge the inexperienced Earls in that position. Apart from Rocky I think Leinster will suffer terribly at the breakdown as they didn't provide cover and consistency until well into the second half last week.

It should be an entertaining game but I think McGahan really wants to win the title on Saturday and has picked a team to do so. A French ref brought over for the game may be swayed by the home crowd pressure.

Recommendation: Munster to win half time/full time for 1pt @1.81 on Betfair Won. Munster - 6 @1.91 for 1point on Hills Won.

After this weeks bets current profit: €993.98 (9.9pts) and a 9.56% Return on Investment.

6 Nations week 4

No recommendations this weekend I'm afraid just a few ideas. With Cheltenham and moving to England taking most of the attention this week I haven't had the time to research.

I backed Ireland -6.5pts yesterday myself which obviously came up, albeit with some nail biting involved. England v France is certainly an interesting game. Looking at the form lines Wales have probably showed they aren't the side they were last year in losing to France who looked much better with Parra at scrum half, still France only seem to have one big game followed by a disappointment.

Le Rostbiffs love to ruin France's day however I find they are too short at 2.16. What is interesting is that fact that most bookies have France -2 at 1.91 while you can back them for a straight win at 1.96 on Betfair. You are getting a strong 20% better price on Betfair which you don't see that often for the Betfair rugby markets. I'll be taking advantage of it anyway as I think France will win as they need something out of this season.

If you did fancy France to really open up and play the 3.5 for France -10 on Ladbrokes might also be tempting. Also worth a tickle is Flood v Trin Duc, click here to view market. With England most likely to concede another raft of penalties Trin Duc is a decent shot to come out top at 2.04-2.2.

Best of luck.

Magners League weekend 03/03/2009

After this weekends action Profit Currently: 710.18 or 7.1pts. A 7.07% ROI (posted 08/3/2009)

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time for a write up unfortunately.

Ulster have a strong squad again. The weather isn't great but they should have home advantage and a much stronger pack to make this easily controllable. Glasgow made a late comeback after Cardiff switched off (which they did in the first half last night again).

If it was a nice day for rugby I would have Ulster -12pts and probably punt on the alternative handicap markets but the weather will probably keep it respectable. Glasgow haven't won away since September and are missing a more players through the Internationals

Recommendation: Ulster - 8pts on Boyles or Ladbrokes @1.91 for 1.5pts Won

06/03/2009

Another second string Magners league weekend, where hopefully knowledge is power. I personally find these games great because you get to see emerging players and also see if some squad players are worth their weight in cider.

The Hairsprey's Lite vs. Leinster

I was quite surprised by the handicap line for this game and quickly snapped up the minus 2pts on offer for Leinster by Ladbrokes yesterday evening. Two weeks ago Leinster went over to the Scarlets and got a massive result, winning by two converted tries. Granted it wasn't the greatest Scarlets however this weekend neither is this vintage Ospreys.

Most importantly the Osprey's haven't been playng great this season. They have got results in the league, but mainly by avoiding defeat against poor teams. Tonight Ryan Jones has said these young players will shine as Ospreys are missing 12 first teamers. After watching them against Connacht (the team with the worst away record in the Magners league) they are far from the finished product. They were lucky to lead at half time and only won by 12 points.

Leinster on the other hand are missing only three first teamers and two weeks ago put in a very professional performance and returned to scoring ways. Their new scrum half looked capable, McFadden (as I predicted) played a blinder and Healy proved that he should really be on the Irish 22 soon.

The mid international games are always tricky, but with Osprey's essentially putting up a completely different team to their first team Leinster look worthy favourites. I was suprised with how short the handicap was, I expected minus 7 for Leinster but then again I'm a believer.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 2.5pts @1.9 for 2 points with Betfair , Leinster Halftime/Fulltime 2.62 for 1pt with Ladbrokes and finally Leinster -11pts @3.25 pts for 0.5pts on Ladbrokes.

For some other opinions here for this weekend's game, click here.

Connacht v Cardiff

Connacht need a morale boosting win and 6.30 before the 'daggs' seems to sap the life out of opposing teams. They are practically full strength against a Cardiff side who are missing sprinklings of their first team.

Cardiff were very rusty lask week, sprinting off into a big lead but then letting a weakend Glasgow get back at them. I think the bookies are a little skimpy on the handicap for Connacht here, possibly because they viewed them as keeping it respectable against the Osprey last week. While I thought the Ospreys were just not up to it.

Recommendation: No bet.