Magners League Round 7

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).

Magners League Round 6

It was a pleasant weekend's betting and I finished narrowly up. London Irish seemingly so focused on beating Leinster two weeks ago couldn't beat a fired up Llanelli which surprised me and my bank balance. Well the H-Cup is parked until December so what's in store this weekend?

Ulster v Leinster

Another weather affected game this. It will be raining quite heavily from lunch time and continue with strong enough wind expected throughout the game. Right that's my Micheal Fish bit finished but it's important.

Team sheet wise the IRFU 2 year World Cup programme is really having an effect. Both teams are far from first choice in key areas but which are the ones that will matter the most. Ronnie McCormack starts in front row for Leinster in what will no doubt be a scrum heavy game and he is a severe weak link for Leinster against first choice front row for Ulster. Leinster have the edge in terms second row and Ulster losing Ferris is big. Horua who comes in is good but I think Leinster really have a form back row in what will be tricky conditions.

Once we get to the backs some interesting selection. Leinster's nine ten is very weak. Berne showed reasonably skill at 1st centre earlier in the season but not a great show at 10. Keane is an average Magners League player but if he can kick well it may cover up Leinster's weakness here. Humphries has been playing well this season but with Wallace rested at first centre once you get out of the scrum Ulster start to look a little ropey. Humphries also isn't the great defender in the world. Wallace is vital to linking up any moves which Ulster have been doing well with this season. Ian Whitten is a strong runner but himself and Trimble are similar and offering only straight line ability and no quick hands. Also neither can kick with ball in hand.

Overall I think Leinster with a strong 11-15 have the edge in the backs. One key point in their favour is that Ulster play from deep and defence a little bit deeper than most teams. Leinster have problems dealing with blitz defences but probably won't have that here. It won't be a classic but has to be better than the shocking game at Murrayfield last night and the unders are probably going to be the one to watch as traditional wet games in Ravenhill end up low scoring.

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 1.91 for 1pt with Stan James LOST, Under 34 points @ 2.0 for 1pt with William Hill WON.

Edinburgh v Munster

I find it quite funny when people get annoyed when no one prices up games for the Magners league on Betfair sometimes. Granted the liquidity can be poor on some games (markedly so this year) however it pays to price up matches. I often have a quick glance at the team sheets when they come out and throw up prices I'd be happy to get matched at. Today I went looking for Edinburgh at 3.0 thinking they would start at about 2.3ish. Bang got matched, it wasn't for much but I'm a happy camper. So if you have an opinion put up prices you'd be happy to get match at. Sure you can price it wrong and be caught on the wrong side (been there bought the...) but if it was a price you were happy to take and you considered it value then it was personally a good bet.

Looking at this game it's quite hard to call. The rain is supposed to come early and often and like Glasgow it should be heavy however not that windy. Both teams have had mixed European results and Munster are starting this season slowly. Edinburgh were very happy to beat an inform Ulster and they started to play well in the last 30 mins of the game. Munster this season seem to starting games very poorly and at this time of year they have traditionally not performed well after coming back from Heineken Cup games. Their set piece has been awful and can't be helped by missing three of their front row options because of injury. Edinburgh have proved tough to beat at home and with the return of Chris Patterson that's like starting off with nine points because of his right boot.

It's a very difficult game to call and I think the weather could stop Munster from kicking on from some improvement that was seen in the second half of their last game. The last four times they've met the score has only got past 35 points once, add that to the weather the unders look an option. Munster this season have been ridiculously slow out of the blocks, only being 6-6 against Dragons at home at half-time and letting their Italian opponents go 10 points up after 20 mins last week. I don't think it'll be a classic and Munster probably won't be able to build phases from weak set pieces so far this season but might just scrape it.

Recommendation: Edinburgh/Munster @6.5 for 0.5pt LOST and Under 38.5 pts @1.9 for 1pt on Betfair or other bookmakers, once they price it up WON.

Glasgow v Connacht

I've had a love hate relationship with cheering on or going against Connacht this year. They have just put two decent games together but importantly they often find it hard to put three together because of their small squad. They defence doesn't seem to travel to well either and on the road they concede a lot of points, on average 31 in the last 6 games.

Connacht have made two changes from last week however they are slightly weaker and no doubt suffering from fatigue. Their back and second rows aren't great and this season seem to be under the cosh for nearly every away game at every set piece. Glasgow return from Europe after two defeats albeit not by much. Importantly they now have their first choice centre partnership and Max Evans back on the wing for the first time this season.

Interestingly this time last year Glasgow started a bit of a run and have always been very strong at home. Connacht haven't won in Scotland for four games in a row and with a thin squad this could be another tough day in Scotland. The forecast predicts heavy rain from after lunch which could stop Glasgow's running style however at this fixture last yea, Glasgow managed to finish strongly and win 30-9 in howling wind and rain so it's not so much of a worry. After Connacht have travelled back from France, only had two or three days to train and just a few players changes I think that the handicap line of 14.5pt is achievable for Glasgow. The weather will be an issue but Glasgow are used to playing with the rain in the faces at Firhill.

Recommendation: Glasgow -14.5pts @ 1.91 for 1.5 point LOST. Price freely available.

Heineken Cup Round 2 Tipping and Betting

After this weekend's betting current profit is: £1299.85 or 13pts. ROI is 49.99%.

-----Update 17/10/2009 9am-------

Not much time to do write up. Saturday's bets.

London Irish -11.5pt at 1.91 for 2pts Lost and London Irish -22 for .5pts Lost.
Ulster -5pts @1.91 for 1pt Won


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Great weekend last week punting wise and the Leicester v Osprey's game was spectacular. Leinster didn't do me proud but it's not all over...... yet.

Dragons v Glasgow

This all Magners league clash is pretty interesting. Glasgow have game controller Cuister back whist Dragons put out two débutantes at each side of the hooker. You always have to be wary of an all new front row and the Scottish pack are no push over. However the overall package from Glasgow this season have been hot and cold.

Glasgow started the season well but fell to a bad defeat against Dragons earlier this season and showed their frailty on the road. I backed Dragons that day as Glasgow weren't at full strength. They do now have Cuister and one of the Evans back which certainly makes a difference however their record away from home is pretty poor and the Dragons have made their home a fortress this season.

I don't think this is going to be as an easy game for the Dragons as it was last time, however apart from Parks you can't see where points are going to come from in the Glasgow back line. Last week was two narrow losses for both these teams but the Dragons have probably more to be cheerful about by scoring two tries away from home and narrowly losing out to a gritty Gloucester.

Recommendation: Dragons -2 at 2.0 on Totesport for 1pt. Won

Perps v Northampton

Leinster beat Munster 30-0, Leinster got beaten by London Irish, Northampton beat Munster and Treviso beat Perpingan so how can you work out this one?

Well the best thing to do sometimes is have a look at what the bookies might think. My 'insiders' at Paddy's informed me that they were offering a shop only bonus price of 3.0 on a Leinster/Munster double. They duly got hammered on the offer and had to drop it. Shortly before game time Leinster were backed in from 1.4 to 1.3. Paddy Powers opened up at 11/10 on Munster which ended up going off at shorter than 4/5 everywhere else.

For this game Paddy's show a two points different on Perps at -8 whilst everyone else is at 6. Perps are embarrassed by last week. Northampton beat Munster, but they should have. The teams deeply affected by the Lions haven't looked sharp or fit and none scored a victory in the first week of the H-Cup.

Recommendation: Perps -6.5 at 1.95 on Betfair for 1pt. Won

Rest of the Games:

I'm going to be out and about for the weekend so might not have a chance to follow the first handicap lines for the rest of the weekend. So if you are online tomorrow at 1ish some matches and lines I'd look out for are:

London Irish v Llanneli - said it many times here, a strong attacking team at home against the Scarlets are great proposition, if you have a strong pack even better. You saw it with Ulster and you'll see it again here with Irish. Anything around the minus 9-10 mark on Irish is a steal. I'd actually fancy a cheeky punt on Irish minus 20.

Edinburgh v Ulster - The northerners have done me proud the last few weeks and I'm getting a little wary and waiting for them to stop their good run. Last year they never won more than two games in a row. They go to the graveyard of Murrayfield however on first look at the win market on Betfair I thought the prices would be a lot closer. Edinburgh's early season form has faded and they aren't free scoring or as dangerous as they were. Can Ulster win a fourth in a row I don't know, however I thought they had a good chance and might be a 2.25 shot. They're currently 2.5 on a 110% book. If you could get Ulster plus 5-6 that would be great value. I'd nearly fancy them to win outright as well at 2.7 if that manages to make it's way up there.

Osprey v Clermont - Team sheet, team sheet, team sheet. If Clermont don't stick out a decent team Ospreys could run up a score. I'm no expert on French rugby so you'd need to study Clermont's team. Ospreys looked great for most of the match against Leicester and are just finding their fitness and form now. If they didn't have two amateurs as props they'd have easily won the game.

Well a pretty successful weekend and clearly I know more about Leinster, which is a bit worrying.

To the right is a screen shot of the current profit and ROI. Doing nicely

Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost

Magners League Round 5

Ulster v Scarlets

I'm quite surprised with bookies' line on this one. I think they underestimate Ulster here. Whilst on paper they don't have a great record against Llanelli and haven't enthralled their fans at home their last three games they have been very strong signs of a good team building up. Obviously away to Ospreys they showed some battle and expansive play and then continued this until the final 20 mins of the Edinburgh game at home. Last week they went to Connacht and thoroughly dismissed Connacht, which is something not many teams do at the Sportsground.

The Scarlets luckily have Mr. Stephen Jones back. He automatically adds balance and points to their package however this is his first game back and few returning Lions have flown out of the blocks so far in their first game. Looking at their backline they don't have any stand out line breakers or ability to score tries. Ulster do. With Ferris back as well Ulster want to the monkey off their back and get their first home win this season. I always maintain that the Scarlets can't defence the breakdown and are too slow in this area and Ulster are great counter attackers. Having Wallace back for Ulster also opens up their play and ability.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts at 1.94 for 2 points on Betfair WON and Ulster -16.5points at 6.5 on PP's for 0.5 points WON.

Current Profit: £784.60 or 7.85pts. ROI 34%