Ireland v South Africa - Clash of the hemisphere champions

I can't wait for this game to kick off. It's been a big tease this whole Autumn International series knowing that this is waiting for us at the end.

This trip north for the Saffies has been difficult and they are clearly tiring. They had a long list of injuries at the start of the week but a fair few of them came through which somewhat exaggerated their price. In fact it's been a very interesting price graph on Betfair for the past 3 weeks. The Springboks starting off at the 1.65ish mark drifting after losing badly to Leicester and France. Their price moved quickly out past evens once Sexton was confirmed to start along with the fact they had cancelled training on Monday. The latter probably being more important.



I was very tempted to back them at 2.1 on Monday because the fact is they should never got that big. Should have, would have, could have and they are now back to the right price of 1.85.

To be honest I've found it very hard to formulate any straight forward bet apart from a bit of pre-match trading. Ireland will no doubt be sharper today and they'll need to be. If their forwards run off into the distance without protection like they did against Australia there will be turnover ball all day with Brussow sniping at the edges.

Personally I believe Sexton will unleash the backline much better than ROG ever can. Sure the Boks are going to be 'targeting' him however that if he handles it well this can play into Ireland's favour. Having a 7 or 1st centre looking to charge him down can allow him to create space for Wallace. Paddy is a completely underrated play-maker and if he has an inch of space he'll create plenty of openings for Bowe and BOD.

It's going to be a tough bruising game but Ireland will be the fitter fresher team. I believe the prices are about right now as Ireland should never have gone favourites for this game which they did do briefly on Tuesday. I'm going to be sitting back and watching this game with a small value bets and a pint in hand. In fact there may be a few pints drunk considering the last game of today's fantastic schedule ends 7 hours after Ireland's kick off. Bring it on.

Recommendation: South Africa/Ireland Halftime/Fulltime for 0.5pts at 8.0 on Betfair. Tommy Bowe to Score anytime @4.33 for 0.5pts on Paddy Power.

Ireland A vs. Argentina Jaguars

So why are they called the Jaguars?The question you should really ask is why is their first team called the Pumas? On all Argentinian jerseys the crest includes a Jaguar however on one of their first appearances on an international stage in South Africa one journalist took it onto himself to come up with a catchy nick name for the team a la 'the Springboks'. However he was obviously never on a safari and got the picked the wrong animal.

A simple enough mistake to make and another could be made here tonight on two fronts. One thinking that because there are so many amateurs in this side Argentina they aren't that strong and two that this is a strong Irish side.

The fact is Argentina as a whole are improving and not just in the pack. If you looked at how their backline against England they were vastly superior even though they had a few amateurs in it. This A team have actually played together a fair bit and have had a few impressive results including only losing by 8 points to England Saxons in the Churchill Cup. Also they seem to be improving as they beat Canada and USA in that tournament and then beat them again recently more comprehensively albeit representative sides.

This Irish side has plenty of well know players but personally most of them I don't think will ever make the international stage. Sure they'll be fitter and have a greater skill set than the Argentina but they aren't amazing. Ireland's pack is very average, with only Mike Ross really going to be holding it up. Ronan as I've said before isn't a great player and the two second rows are far from dynamic. Boss and Humphreys are in form however this whole backline is very small and relatively inexperienced apart from Dowling.

I fully expect Ireland to win but the only bookie I can find pricing it up (Paddy's) might be reading too much into how they beat Tonga who were a ramshankle side. Argentina have played together plenty of times, Ireland don't have a strong back row and it looks to be a windy night. The 18 point handicap is something to get me interested in.

Recommendation: Argentina Jaquars + 18 for one point on Paddy Powers

Do you remember?

.... the complaints when England, Ireland, Wales and France fielded 'under strength' teams on summer tours to the southern hemisphere just a year or two ago?

Well its funny how if you're from down there you can call it 'blooding' and 'future building'. Clearly those S14 boys have better PR skills.

Just a thought.

Autumn International Weekend Review

Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.

Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.

Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.

The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.

Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.

Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.

Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.

Ireland v Australia

More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.

On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.

Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.

I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.

Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.

"And now for something completely different"

As some of you may or may not know I work for Betfair in the marketing department, particularly for horse racing.

Anyway I made my first appearance on a live Timeform Radio show check out my debut performance at about 31mins, click here to download