Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.
Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.
Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.
The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.
Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.
Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.
Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024
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Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The
rhetoric of why they should be excluded is just nonsense. It's 2024 - has
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1 week ago
Hi Ken,
ReplyDeleteBeen following your comments for a while now, excellent insights and I really look forward to reading them.
Do you think that as you stray outside the field of expertise where you have a real insight(Magners League and European Cup) your performance has started to suffer.
I only ask because I find it very hard to see any pattern in Autumn internationals and after a few small bets, I have decided to bet only when I think there is a serious mis-pricing, which I think happens more often in Magners, Heineken or AIL rugby matches.
NZ -12 points doesn't look like a great bet to me, because England could pull a big performance out of the hat and the way they are set up this year should mean it will be a relatively low scoring game.
Peadar
Yes, I'm not as successful on Internationals. Last year I think I was down about 6pts during the six nations.
ReplyDeleteProbably should have learnt my lesson this year ;)
I find the six-nations a bugger of a tournament to predict, handicap-wise, and have never done too well at all. But there is such a weight of cash often heading in predictable directions that a wily old bugger like myself can still enjoy the tournament from a betting point of view. Far from an easy competition though.
ReplyDeleteI do like the Autumn internationals and to some extent the summer tours though. I think they throw up some massive opportunities to make some cash as there is a clash of styles, objectives and match-readiness throughout the different sides.
Last week I:
Laid England
Backed the draw in the England game
Laid Wales
Backed unders, tries and points, in the England game
Backed the draw in the Ireland game
Backed Ireland on the handicap
Laid South Africa x 2 (including tuesday night)
Backed Italy on the handicap
Can't remember too many better betting weekends, but so many seemed obvious. Under 3.5 tries in the England game screamed at me all week in the build up and I had to back it to stifle the din. Two negative sides equals bore-fest. Simples.
The Wales bet was frustrating as hell as I thought Samoa got a really rough deal from the ref and they also knocked on with the line begging. Losing on Ireland was massively eclipsed by winning on the draw. Laying England worked fine as I had ample opportunity to lay it back, while the draw was also a superb bet even I did miss out on the best opportunities to lay.
I think what I am trying to say is chances are there and form is very visible. Don't listen to the hype, but try to see what stage in preperation a team is at - France v SA a great example as one team is ranked 1 in the world, but the French did some serious damage in NZ this summer and could not have been more fired up, while the SA side do not travel well and had weaknesses (the scrum). The odds were the wrong way round essentially.
Bugger, sure I was trying to make a specific point but have ended up rambling and ranting as usual. Apologies.....
RugbyMan (obviuously)
P.S. I think if I tried to condense the above I would use this sentance: Ignore Hype.