More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.
On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.
Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.
I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.
Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024
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Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The
rhetoric of why they should be excluded is just nonsense. It's 2024 - has
any...
1 week ago
Hey
ReplyDelete1.93 available at the moment on Betfair with reasonable volume.
Interestingly - the bookies are ranging 1.73 - 1.9 on outright win.
Boylesports and PP quoting 1.91 on Ireland - 2.
Agree with your analysis. I think the win against England was slightly flattering (though the Aussies will come good at some point). England looked extremely limited and Johnson has obviously been watching too much American Football - all big runners and no finesse.
It might be interesting to look at the larger spreads as they become available if the odds were good - something like Ireland - 7 or 8.
MD
Yeah it's good to see the volume back in for rugby but it's always just for the Internationals.
ReplyDeleteI would fancy Ireland to win by a try or two. It just depends how strong they start. They've all played together for years and if they come out of the blocks strong I think Australia will find it hard to get into the game.
You are right about Johnson, too much grid iron watching.
Might be interesting to take a look at the spreads on the Eng / Arg game as well - once the market opens up
ReplyDeleteMD
What do you think it might be?
ReplyDeleteArgentina haven't been playing well of late and seemed to have gone backwards since last year. I would get involved if they were +10 but Jonny might make it easy for England.
Actually it would have to be +12 before I'd get involved but I don't have a clue what team the Argies would stick on the pitch.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping that English optimism might have the UK bookmakers pushing the spreads out to mid double digits or so - one of those situations where weight of money in the UK sets up a silly price.
ReplyDeleteThe only problem is that they looked so limited last weekend that the spread might be tight - and as you say with Wilkinson England are capable of beating a small spread.
The outright Arg win is about 3.9 at the moment. I would guess that translates to 7-10 point under closer to the day.
MD
I've been laying dribs and drabs on Australia so far. Australia proved very little against an England team patched together by a man who has no concept of how to pick a balanced side. The incompetence is breathtaking at times.
ReplyDeleteWays in which Ireland will be better than England:
1. Familiarity - Ireland have kept a fairly similar team together for years. England have a new-look side every year.
2. Ball-Carriers - England decided to go into the game with only 1 ball-carrier in pack. Crane was as usual lazy and slow, which left David Wilson as the most effective and he wasn't very effective. For reasons beyond me Johnson had 3 top ball-carriers in his squad originally, but he dropped one (Armitage) and left the other two on the bench. When Lawes and Haskell came on they finally had players who could take it up, but was far too late by then.
Ireland wont make that mistake. Carriers like Healy, the second-row to some extent, Wallace and Heaslip will find holes in Australia's defence.
3. Fly-half positioning - While Wilkinson is always the hero for kicking and tackling he does no end of damage to attacking prowess. Stood so deep I thought he would end up in row G at one point completely negating the silky skills of Geraghty at 12. With the attacking talents of BOD and Bowe it would be mental for an Irish fly-half not to stand flat and bring players into the game. There will be holes in the Aus midfield for sure.
4. Individual stupidity - Every team makes mistakes but if Ireland can beat the ineptitude of Ugo Monye this week then credit to whoever it is. Would be a hell of an achievement. Knocked on every high ball, never ever looked to pass, fell over, got out of position a lot. Hopeless. And he wasnt the only one.....
5. Tired Aussies - It's been a long season with a lot of traveling recently for a young side. With the roar going up in Dublin and some madmen in Green thundering towards them I don't think they will keep up with the pace.
And 6, if you need one more. Quick-ball - not even going to explain that one as it is too obvious.
So all in all an Ireland victory for me and possibly a good one. 1.9 or thereabouts is a very big price against an average away side for Grand Slam champions.
Rugbyman
p.s. keep up the good work Ken, good blog.
And about the Argentina game:
ReplyDeleteThe Argies have a great pack, though aging maybe, and if they all play they should give England problems. The problem is these days that the backline is average. Pichot gone, Contepomi and Hernandez both injured, the likes of Camacho and Amorisino far from world-beaters, just average Premiership players.
If the 8 are good enough though I will be getting stuck in. Just wish Hernandez was there.....
Rugbyman
Hi Ken - great blog by the way - cleaning up off your tips.
ReplyDeleteTell me this, how did you get to be such a good tipster? Have been trying for ages and i struggle with premiership rugby so much. Is it simply magners league that you know inside out or would it be more to do with your grasp of the odds or potential price movements?
A good few strong points made RM, I have to agree with you on most and it was my reassoning for betting before teams announced. The point about Wilko is very pertinent. We could have the same issue with ROG but the boys around him are well used to carrying him through the game.
ReplyDeleteThe most I look at it Ireland should be -5.
Murphy's - To be honest the only thing I can put my tipping down to is time. Time to watch a lot of games and focusing on one league and time to do the research. Sure I've been lucky but I've had equal amounts of bad luck as well this season. I'm on a good run at the moment and hopefully it'll continue.
Interesting news today on the England front. They are going to be playing a prop with about 200 mins GP experience against an ARG front row.
ReplyDeleteI don't care how old and disheveled the Argies are, the one thing they can do is scrummage.
This should be interesting once the prices go up
MD
Ken,
ReplyDeleteSo what you are saying is that over time you get the same amount of good luck as bad luck? Does this mean im just a terrible gambler?!
How can become successful like you? I really want to me making profits, but its so tough and thenthe breaks from domestic to european to internationals just throw me. Please advise me.
Murphy's
ReplyDeleteYou can't ask the guy that for goodness sake.Seriously, Ken is living proof that you need to specialise to become successful at betting. Why dont you just focus on the Premiership if that's your thing...and then follow Ken's tips for your magners league bets.
Looking at the market this evening....
ReplyDeleteIreland still 1.9 on outright but interestingly the spread is 2.5 for odds of 2.0. Looking at Ken's original post - there is still a lot of depth down to 1.85 on Betfair.
Also ARG are out to 4.7 for outright win - yet spread is only 9.5. Might be worth the price of a pint on the outright but would only do it for fun.
Must keep an eye on it tomorrow
MD
I'll be having a small interest in France v SA. Apparently SA only arrived yesterday to France which baffles me.
ReplyDeleteSlight bit of jet added to the fact they've never beaten the French at home since 1997. Of course France are France but they are playing in Toulouse which will probably help them more. PLaying the big teams is what winds them up and gets them going, the +3 looks good.
Best of luck over the weekend guys. Best advice is too bet smallish as this can be silly season. Apart from Australia Ireland which is a shoe in. ;)
Ireland price disappeared over night. Was 1.88 when I turned off the computer, 1.79 when I turned it back on and my lay at 1.81 had all gone. Might drift back to mid 1.8s now before coming in again I reckon.
ReplyDeleteRugbyMan
A bit disappointed with Ireland's overall performance (but not with the result, I do love draws!). Tackling and support play just wasn't up to scratch, but the fact they got a draw out of the game fresh out of the blocks makes me think they can kick on and beat SA in a fortnight. Certainly wouldn't want the dodgy-travelling Boks at odds-on anyway.
ReplyDelete