6 Nations Week 1

I've said in an earlier posting I'm going to take things easy at the start of the tournament because strange things happen every year, so baby steps for Saturday's games.

Ireland v Italy

Could Italy be one of those strange things, wound up by Magners League exclusion, not getting a fair crack at the whip and looking to put behind them what was a poor season last year. Thought, I don't think Italy are going to flick the switch and stop being crap however they couldn't be as bad as last year, can they? Parisse is out, they've a new 10 who I don't know much about and they are probably 4/1 for a back to score a try, throughout the tournament. They'll always be competitive upfront and you can't see that stopping with easy targets of Healy and Hayes and will have a strong tight five.

Looking at last years result of 9-38 you have to think the -20 at home for Ireland is perfectly obtainable. That result disguises what was an decidedly average performance from Ireland where they only just scored their first intercept try, followed by another one just before the half time whistle. Italy were six nil up at one stage and Ireland didn't score when they had a man sin binned after one minute.

As great as it look last season Ireland did play quite a patient game and used their experience, preparation and intensity to win every game. If they can apply a stronger attacking edge they will make this handicap. I was going to leave this game alone but after watching the A game tonight I'm more confident that Kidney is asking his players to start games properly and mix the point of attack.

Recommendation: Ireland -20 for 1 point at evens with Stan James/Bet Fred.

England v Wales

Naming the two sides for this fixtures has become something akin to musical chairs. Firstly the merry go around of the Byrnes appeal, then Tom Rees injured, Haskell a maybe, Gethin out, Flutey out. Hopefully the teams will be somewhat similar to the ones I've been looking at for the past half hour when they kick off at 17.30, but I'm sure someone will trip on their shoe lace for the captains run.

One thing that won't be changing in my opinion is Martin Johnson's approach to this game. I'm not his biggest fan in fact I don't think many are, but selecting Toby Flood and then mentioning he has 'good kicking and defensive game' speaks volumes for what England are going to try and do. Reel it right back in Johnny from your statement a month ago out an bold game approach. Expect Johnny W to sit back and play the percentages. As quality a player as he is. his style hasn't evolved over the past 5 years and blitz defences negate his stand off, sitting deep approach which once suited his left boot.

Wales have their critics too and plenty of questions to answer. Personally I think they won the worst the grand slam in the past while. Looking at their clubs performances this year and individual player performance they are playing ok, marginally better than last year. In terms of selections if I was a Welsh supporter I wouldn't like to see Hook playing 13 a quite unfamiliar position for him.

So the big question comes down to price, looking at it England are way to short, at 1.5 with some bookies, if only I could lay that. Sure they have home advantage, haven't lost two games in a row in Twickenham to the Welsh for years but you couldn't trust them. The November internationals identified a lot of problems for both teams but I think that Wales have a much better chance of improving quicker than England. If their offloading game returns the English backlines' defensive capabilities don't inspire me.

There are a lot of if's and buts. The stats are against Wales to win but England, from being in a good position on Wednesday, are now suddenly looking worried without Flutey. They'll dominate in the scrum but that won't win them the match.

Recommendation: Wales +5 at evens for one point with Victor Chandler

Ireland A v Scotland A

Ireland A v Scotland A

Just a quick preview before this game kicks off (available on RTE.ie or BBC Northern Ireland online if your interested).

Two strong squads for both teams. Blair, Danelli, Murray for Scotland and Horan, Humphreys and a great back row for Ireland.

Scotland A have sprung a suprise before whacking the Ireland A's last year but I'm going to have to side with Ireland A. I'm refusing to call them there new stupid name however. The handicap of -6 is about right and I could see Ireland sneaking it as they have the advantage of playing a game together last week.

However on inspection of the odds a cracking bet for a team who held possession well last week and only lost out by rusty errors and some wierd selections the Ireland/Ireland halftime/fulltime result looks good.

Recommendation: Ireland/Ireland HT/FT at evens for 2pts with William Hill. WON

6 Nations Outright

Ah Spring terrestrial TV rugby, nothing like it to make everyone egg chasing experts.

This year the 6 nations is looking like its going to be very interesting with Ireland playing two tough away games and some of the other teams looking to improve after a dreadful November internationals. First a quick team preview:

Ireland (3.5 to win outright)
A full calendar year without defeat, actual competition at ten, the strongest attacking and defensively organised backline in the northern hemisphere. Sure it can only get better right? Grand slam wins don't come in two's (just ask Wales) and with tough away games I think the slam is out of the question. The front row is clearly an issue as Hayes is not the saviour he once was or that fit, Healy still lacks international experience after bursting onto the scene and our likely hookers haven't got 6 games between them this season! All being said in last years tournament they had only 7 out of 400 rucks turned over on them and retained possession the most. Tight, efficient, brilliant defensively, an ability to handle the kicking game but they just need to learn to attack a little more away from home. Will that be enough though for a win in Paris?

France (2.66 to win outright)
Do you trust them, seriously do you? I trust the players more than the coach. However the French game has been sucked of some of it's flair this year. Apparently the Top14 has the lowest try rate of any league in Europe, however just look at how many teams they have in the H-Cup quarter finals. Paris will be a fortress but a tricky trip to Murrayfield on Sunday will be a test of them jelling as a team. It's a cliche to say it but if they want to they could destroy most teams, however they probably won't and lose one important game.

Wales (6.5 to win outright)
Can Gatty get them back on track? Ospreys have looked a much better team since Christmas, players are starting to come back from injury but you have to think they won a weak grand slam two years ago. Stephen Jones is a quality club player, he can run a show but he is slightly one dimensional and predictable internationally. Perhaps Biggar might get some time to shine but with trips away to Twickenham and Dublin I don't think they're suddenly going to click after last years poor performance. Cooper their new scrum half is also going to be in for a shock.

England (the odds.... it doesn't matter they can't win)
Excuses, cliches, curtains they all cover something up. That 'something' is that Martin Johnson is not an international coach. They have poor direction both on and off the pitch and it's becoming embarrassing on some of his selections and announcements on what he wants his team to do. He stated they are now going to play an expansive game, sure Martin just flick the switch there and off you go. Picking Tait and Flutey doesn't mean you have an expansive game when Wilko is going to stand so far back when they get the ball they'll be smashed. There has to be an improvement from November and their one try (in fairness they were top tryscorers in this tournament last year), they'll have one big game in them but probably be unspectacular for the rest and they'll probably kick away all their chances.

Scotland
With Euan at mass on Sunday against France and issues at ten the Scots still maintain their optimism. Whilst Glasgow have been performing very well all season and they'll have a competitive pack you'd have to question whether the Evans and Lamont will be giving the right platform to score tries. Patterson will always keep them close but when push comes to shove they won't be able to get the tries they need. I expect they could take England at home but only if they are able to open up and have a free flowing game.

Italy
*****Holding Copy******Please return to this section after first game. I hope they won't be like last year, more of the 2008 vintage please Mr. Mallet.

What to bet on?

Well it's a case of what you could have had a bet on. William Hill had England to get the wooden spoon at 80/1. On Betfair 60's has been match so they can't claim an error and they still had a 108% book at that price. It's gone now though

An interesting market stuck up by Bluesquare is their 'to score a try anytime'. Riki Flutey opened up at 2.1 and Matthew Tait 2.83. I managed to get a little on but they've both shortened to 1.83 and 2.37 respectively. Personally I still think they are value. Flutey will get a try and England will score against Italy away and can't afford to experiment with new partnerships. I'd expect both Tait and Flutey to start most of the games barring injury and considering Flutey got 4 tries in last seasons tournament he should grab at least one. Preferably on Saturday so I can rest easy. It may seem like a contradiction in terms to say I was going to back England for a wooden spoon and then I back two English guys to score but they are good value.

What really is interesting comes three weeks down the line with England v Ireland. England start this weekend as favourites against Wales who at least will know what they want and can do. Paddy Power have kindly priced up Eng v Ireland already. Right now I would have Ireland as narrow favs and as shown in November internationals will probably peak closer to the end of the tournament as many of their players are fresh. Unless Paddy knows England are going to kick ass this weekend I'm surprised to see Ireland +2 for Twickenham. Sure we don't have the greatest record their, winning narrowly 4 years ago for triple crown and being beaten last time out quite comprehensively. Barring Ireland completely under performing this weekend and the next I don't see how anything but a sensational performance by England this weekend is going to stop this being a scratch game or Ireland as narrow favourites. England play Italy after Wales away and in that game they really have more to lose than to gain in relation to their performance and effecting their odds for the Ireland match. Get a nice position now.

I'll try and get a preview up on Friday for the weekend, I won't be going big this weekend as I didn't do too well last year. Baby steps....

Recommendations:

Riki Flutey to score any time during the tournament @ 1.83 for 2 points with Bluesquare.
Matthew Tait to score any time during the tournament @ 2.37 for 1 point with Bluesquare.
Ireland + 2 against England @1.91 for 2 points with Paddy Power.

One final note or more like question, would you back that either England, Wales, Scotland or Italy at 3.0 to win the tournament outright? Nope, me neither 1.5 on either Ireland and France looks good.

Half Term Report - Punting Highs and Lows

Well technically it may not be half term but now is as good a time as any to review the punting so far this rugby season.

After a blistering start which saw me hit over 18pts of profit and an ROI of about 40% by mid Oct, it was a little shaky after then. Between the end of Oct till the end of December saw me lose 5pts and really drag down the ROI. One thing to take from this period was that some of the games were quite close and I wasn't calling the games massively wrong. I would have been worried if that was the case.

As I kicked into the New Year I had some very succesful results and ended up 3pts back to 17pts of profit by the end of January. Whilst I haven't kicked on since early October I'm quite happy by my jugdement of games. My bet type selection and point allocation could be sharpened to get the most of my game analysis. Personally I've dabbled a little in spread betting on handicap lines and most of my two to three point handicap selections would have paid much better than straight up handicap lines and odds of 1.91.

I hope that you've enjoyed the blog so far this season and I'm rubbing my hands in anticipation of the 6 nations. Last year it was a big red mark on my spreadsheet so I'm going to be a little cautious but I believe it should produce some value bets.

I'm hoping to do a preview in the next few days and might have a small outright bet. Thanks for all the comments this year and I hope that your still in profit too.

England A v Ireland A

Profit after this match: £1704 or 17.04 points ROI 25.44%

The first of the A internationals for this year and it throws up an interesting betting market.

Earlier on in the week after seeing the Irish squad I decided to throw a few prices up on the machine. Before seeing both starting line-ups my view was Ireland A (or soon to be known as 'The Wolfhounds') are a proper team. Most of the players will player together or against each for much of the season. They spend a lot of time in camp together, they've plenty international expierence and most importantly they are paid to perform a job for their country as well as province.

Team England on the other hand don't even have a proper first team, have spoken about bringing a new approach to the 6 nations and have never looked liked playing together or even knowing who the person next to them is.

Based on this belief I stuck a lay up on England at 1.5 on Tuesday thinking this would be an excellent value lay as I only gave them a 40%-50% chance of winning. Well I got matched as most of the bookies priced it up at 1.35. I think people may have over-reacted to the weakness in Ireland's front row. Buckley in my opinion is useless (expect to see Ross brought on early) and shouldn't be in the squad and Best and Horan are coming back from injuries, however at least these two have plenty of full international expierence. England posesses one excellent scrummager but Doran-Jones is far from one.

Looking at the rest of the pack you'd have to say Leinster, sorry Ireland A have an excellent mixture of up and coming players in O'Brien, Toner and solid expierence and guile with O'Driscoll and Jennings. At 9/10 you've got an exciting partnership even though Wallace is a 12 but plenty of ability to attack and more so than his opposite number. The centre partnership might not be the greatest but they played together along with the others outside them when they demolished Argentina A's in Tallaght.

England have some good players in Strettle and Waldouck in the back line but as Gearghty showed last week for Northampton he isn't a ten and has an obsession with kicking the ball away.

It'll be a close game but the handicap of +8 for Ireland has to be snapped up. I may lose my lay on England but I still would have had the game a lot closer than what the bookies have it.

Recommendation: Ireland +8 for 2pts @1.91 with Corals or Betfair.WON