Half Term Report - Punting Highs and Lows

Well technically it may not be half term but now is as good a time as any to review the punting so far this rugby season.

After a blistering start which saw me hit over 18pts of profit and an ROI of about 40% by mid Oct, it was a little shaky after then. Between the end of Oct till the end of December saw me lose 5pts and really drag down the ROI. One thing to take from this period was that some of the games were quite close and I wasn't calling the games massively wrong. I would have been worried if that was the case.

As I kicked into the New Year I had some very succesful results and ended up 3pts back to 17pts of profit by the end of January. Whilst I haven't kicked on since early October I'm quite happy by my jugdement of games. My bet type selection and point allocation could be sharpened to get the most of my game analysis. Personally I've dabbled a little in spread betting on handicap lines and most of my two to three point handicap selections would have paid much better than straight up handicap lines and odds of 1.91.

I hope that you've enjoyed the blog so far this season and I'm rubbing my hands in anticipation of the 6 nations. Last year it was a big red mark on my spreadsheet so I'm going to be a little cautious but I believe it should produce some value bets.

I'm hoping to do a preview in the next few days and might have a small outright bet. Thanks for all the comments this year and I hope that your still in profit too.

England A v Ireland A

Profit after this match: £1704 or 17.04 points ROI 25.44%

The first of the A internationals for this year and it throws up an interesting betting market.

Earlier on in the week after seeing the Irish squad I decided to throw a few prices up on the machine. Before seeing both starting line-ups my view was Ireland A (or soon to be known as 'The Wolfhounds') are a proper team. Most of the players will player together or against each for much of the season. They spend a lot of time in camp together, they've plenty international expierence and most importantly they are paid to perform a job for their country as well as province.

Team England on the other hand don't even have a proper first team, have spoken about bringing a new approach to the 6 nations and have never looked liked playing together or even knowing who the person next to them is.

Based on this belief I stuck a lay up on England at 1.5 on Tuesday thinking this would be an excellent value lay as I only gave them a 40%-50% chance of winning. Well I got matched as most of the bookies priced it up at 1.35. I think people may have over-reacted to the weakness in Ireland's front row. Buckley in my opinion is useless (expect to see Ross brought on early) and shouldn't be in the squad and Best and Horan are coming back from injuries, however at least these two have plenty of full international expierence. England posesses one excellent scrummager but Doran-Jones is far from one.

Looking at the rest of the pack you'd have to say Leinster, sorry Ireland A have an excellent mixture of up and coming players in O'Brien, Toner and solid expierence and guile with O'Driscoll and Jennings. At 9/10 you've got an exciting partnership even though Wallace is a 12 but plenty of ability to attack and more so than his opposite number. The centre partnership might not be the greatest but they played together along with the others outside them when they demolished Argentina A's in Tallaght.

England have some good players in Strettle and Waldouck in the back line but as Gearghty showed last week for Northampton he isn't a ten and has an obsession with kicking the ball away.

It'll be a close game but the handicap of +8 for Ireland has to be snapped up. I may lose my lay on England but I still would have had the game a lot closer than what the bookies have it.

Recommendation: Ireland +8 for 2pts @1.91 with Corals or Betfair.WON

Heineken Cup Round 5

Leinster v Brive

As always the question many ask for this game is will the French side bother turn up? I'd rather be asking are Leinster ready to turn up?

I don't think Leinster will lose this one, and you'd hope not at a price of 1.02. To be honest though, two teams in the Heineken cup should have such disparging odds as was shown by Treviso earlier this season when Perps came to visit.

With Leinster not having played a game since shortly after Christmas, Jennings and Sexton needing game time and the fact that often when a team gets to 3 tries kicking the points isn't an option I think Brive in the handicap are worth a shout. Leinster have famously struggled even when in good form to put teams to bed when they need a bonus point, however it never stopped them progressing. Remember London Irish only got their bonus point in the last minute in their game against Brive.

Brive haven't their strongest team out but as was seen with Montaubaun in Munster last year, if you have plenty of non French players they still like to take a scalp or put up a fight. Plus they are match fit, have regained some form and won't be encountering anything close to dry hard running pitch which would favour Leinster. With a new coach at Brive players should be out to impress and stick their hands up as they are only a few points off H-Cup qualification again now in the leauge..

Recommendation: Brive +30 at evens for 1.5pts with Boylesports Won. First scoring play, Leinster penalty @2.75 for 1pt with all bookies Lost.

Yesterday's bets:

Ulster v Edinburgh - Ulster HT/FT @ 1.73 for 1pt with Stan James. Lost
Connacht v Montpellier - Connacht -6 @ 1.91 for 2pts with plenty of bookies. Won
Glasgow v Dragons - Glasgow HT/FT @ 1.86 for 1 pt with Betfair. Won

Magners League Jan 2nd

Update - Leinster game has just be cancelled.

Sorry I haven't been posting much over Christmas but some of the games have been unattractive in terms of value. Today is certainly the case in Ireland but not so in Scotland.

Edinburgh v Glasgow

Currently there is sleet showers in Edinburgh and they had Baltic conditions over night, actually where didn't? I was just a point off on unders in Firhill and with Edinburgh having the home advantage today they'll probably stop a strong Glasgow side from kicking plenty of points.

Edinburgh aren't scoring tries and I can't see it being turned around today. Glasgow should be good for a win although they haven't got one here since 2000 but they are playing well.

Recommendation: Glasgow +5 for 1pt with Paddy Powers WON, Under 34 points at evens for 2 points with William Hill LOST.

Connacht v Leinster

Leinster have 9 internationals but you wouldn't be inspired by their performance last week which contained plenty of handling errors. Connacht with about 4 ex Leinster players are always up for this but it's too hard to predict where this is going to go.

I'm going to stay away from this game but my gutt says Connacht might actually nip it in the outright. Leinster had trouble last season motivating themselves for this game, maybe they won't make the same mistake however as we saw with the Dragons away resting a lot of players can drop the squads motivation.

Ulster v Munster

This is an in-running game or betting once you see the pitch for me as you really got to see the conditions in Ravenhill before each game. Rain/sleet is predicted at 6pm according to BBC so the under 35 points with Hills at evens is probably something that won't stay for long if it arrives.

I've thoroughly enjoyed watching Ulster and with a first choice squad back and a strong performance that lacked international finishing (which has now returned) they are deserved favourites. However given the level of their performance in Thomand last time I would expecting odds of 1.8 in the outright.

Really it boils down to how Munster will peform. Ulster should dominate them in the second row with much stronger back three and Humphries and Wallace should be more creative than Warwick who is slotting in at 10. Personally I think Ulster will either win by 10 or lose.

Recommendation: Ulster -9pts at 3.0 for 0.5pts with Will Hills.LOST

Christmas Magners League Fixtures

Leinster v Ulster

I'm quite suprised by the amount of changes that Ulster have made for this game as I really thought they would give it a go. Unfortunately I think they might be looking to damage limitation on the day.

Their centre partnership have played a lot together but are by no means a match for Leinster's and with Reddan showing some strong form and with quick ball because of a dominant pack in front of him expect the Ulster backs to be facing an on slaught.

Leinster have traditionally played well over the Christmas season and I don't see it stopping here. Considering they've beaten Ulster by over 25 points in each their last two home games the minus 13 handicap on Leinster looks good. Add this to the fact that in three of their last four games Ulster have shipped over 20 points in each you'd have to fancy a full strengh Leinster.

Recommendation: Leinster -13points for 2pts with most bookies LOST

Scarlets v Ospreys

I mentioned a few weeks ago before the Ospreys Munster game that the Ospreys were focusing on key games. If they aren't focusing on this game after watching the Scarlets in the last two games they must be crazy.

Luckily they have a strong team out and sure derbies are always close events but the last two meetings of these teams has seen Ospreys win both home and away. Also their next two games against are home to Cardiff and away to Ulster which they may seek to take a hit on.

Having witnessed how poor the Scarlets have been in the past week it's no suprise to hear they have only won once in seven. They are leaking tries left right and centre and have no sort of blitz defence. This type of defence is what hurts teams like Leinster and Ospreys. I'm sure they'll be more competitive infront of a sold out stadium however I reckon 40-50% of the stadium will be following the boys in black from up the road.

With a strong running backline and what looks like hard ground I fully expect the Ospreys to win this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -3pts at evens for two points with Bluesquare or 888sport. WON

Munster v Connacht

After defying all the odds the true Munster showed their colours for a fantastic victory last week. As for myself, I was a non-believer and one of the doubters in their ability to pull off even a bonus point loss and I never seem to learn from my mistakes with these lads.

Connacht had another win in the Challenge Cup and look to be improving as the season continues. They generally grab a derby scalp or two during the year but these are always at home. They've put out a strong side and the one improvement they have applied this year is more powerful back play with the strong running N Ta'auso.

Munster have made nine changes to last weeks victory and although their replacements are capable players this is by no means a walk in the park for them. Last season Munster fielded a slightly more inform and stronger side than this and won by 15 points. Tomorrow's team has a bit to much reconstruction for my liking and for a backline that has only clicked once or twice this season there are a few too many green players. Importantly Munster have started every half slow this year and with this derby game I'd expect the same.

Recommendation: Half time handicap Connacht +7 @ 1.91 (most bookies) for 1pt. LOST

Glasgow v Edinburgh

The last few Christmas games between these teams have always been high scoring affairs. Briefly looking at the teams today they both seem at almost full strength and the handicap line of Glasgow -4 seems about right, if a touch generous for a Glasgow team who are top of the table. They've been playing well all season and Firhill has turned into a bit of a fortress.

Edinburgh of late haven't been scoring tries but getting some results. You'd have to favour Glasgow at home here however I don't think it's going to be as free scoring as previous games have been. Edinburgh haven't been scoring tries and statistically you can't have 5 clashes of these teams going to unders. If the 'total points' is priced up on previous meetings it could be a bit of value.

Recommendations - Glasgow to win -4 @1.91 (with most bookies) for 1 point WON