Magners League 09/1 & 10/1

Well it was an interesting Christmas season with some big upsets and unfortunately the biggest upset for me in terms of betting. This week we look to make it back.

Leinster v Cardiff

Weather Update:- Quite windy all day, will make kicking difficult. Favours the unders

Last game for the weekend, seeing Leinster trying to catch up in the table. Even though they didn't play amazing last week, the game was destroyed by some terrible referring with needless penalties against Leinster and then some missing of forward passes to let Leinster in with their last try. Cardiff, last week are not in great form. Losing at home to the stuttering Ospreys who just can't find true ability. They aren't scoring many tries, none last week and only four in their last four games. Two were against the Dragons who leak tries.

Leinster drew against Cardiff after coming from behind at the start of the season and won the same fixture at the same time last year by seven points. Cardiff haven't kicked on this year and are missing Ben Blair the main kicking threat. Cardiff haven't got great results before Heineken Cup games losing badly to Glasgow before their big game against Biaritz. They have a massive game away to second in their group Gloucester next week and I just think there mind will be on that. True Leinster have a big game too, but they are at home and need to stick in a performance. Cardiff have three first choice players returning from injury itching for time on the pitch and I think that this could be just a little bit of run out for them. Dai Young has targeted games all season to good success and I think he may expect this game for sharpness and preparation for next week. Cheika is hampered by suspensions but to be honest O'Brien coming in for Jennings is going to be one of Leinster and Ireland's future big players. Blaney has plenty of experience. The pack does look better.

Interestingly in the betting PP's and Stanleys have the handicap at +6 while its +8 elsewhere. I think Leinster might not get a bonus point victory but could get to their 28 point average at home this season. The Blues have only got big scores against defensively weak teams, which has been Leinster's one shining light this season. They've got a stronger pack and first choice backline, barring my obvious favouritism for Leinster I think PP's have got it wrong today. I'm only 2km's from the ground at it is windy and might have showers, this could effect the game in breaking any overs.

Recommendation: Leinster - 6pts (on PP's) for 2pts @1.91, (Wait till you see pics of the game or email me) total points back the under's 39.5 @2.0 (Betfair) or 38pts for 2.1 on Bill Hill for 1pt.

Connacht v Scarlets

Connacht are on the up, they've beaten both Munster and Leinster at home this season and put in another respectable performance in the RDS last weekend. Scarlets last week started amazing, were 10 points up after 10 mins and after a knock on for a certain try they gave up and collapsed and could barely hold off a Dragons fightback.

Connacht are playing well but not scoring tries. They scored one try in three Magners league games. They've been scoring from packs who give away penalties. Scarlets have only given away 5 kicked penalties in the last 3 games. Watching them last week, they don't attempt to counter ruck, throw men on the floor or basically break the rules. This is where Connacht are scoring from. Scarlets are also missing their best point scoring player from last week Jones (on the Bench) and Mark Jones, one of the best backs so it might be hard for them to score tries.

I think it will be hard for Connacht after 3 tough games in a row, however they have been rotating players for their home games and have almost a full strength back line for what should be an excellent defence.

Recommendation:- Back the unders 36.5pts @2.0 for 1.5pts on Betfair or Bet365 Won

Edinburgh v Ulster

Ulster played brilliantly last week and showed that if you run and play attacking ball against Munster at the moment you'll get the points. Edinburgh played pretty poor last week and were lucky to score a early freak try and the final score flattered them.

Edinburgh go into this game with three players starting their first game and a further three changes from last week. Missing Nick De Luca and Pattison really effects their ability to run with speed, losing Ross Rennie for the season doesn't help either. Ulster have to make 4 changes from their super performance however one is captain Best coming back in for Brady, McCrea starting who played brilliant last week and Pollock who replaced Dawson in that game and is pushing for Ireland call up.

Ulster did beat a weakened Munster last week but it was in one of the hardest places to go and win and boy did they do it in style. Murrayfield is probably the polar opposite in terms of atmosphere to Thomand but but equally hard to win at. If and it is a sizable if, Ulster can play to the level they did last week this should be an easy game for them. To be honest to see any team with a +4.5 handicap going to play Edinburgh after beating Munster away by twenty six points the previous week is strange. If this becomes an open game I definitely think Ulster can win. The negative against them is they are a young team and young teams can be brilliant, but inconsistent. I think Williams's boys could continue their form, but if they don't I still can't see Edinburgh running riot.

Recommendation: Ulster -7.5pts @ 5.5 for 0.5pts Lost, Ulster + 4.5 @2.1 for 1pt Won

Ospreys v Munster


Brief on this one. You've got two teams going into big games next week and Munster often don't perform in the league before a big H-Cup game. They are missing three of their most important backs for this season, ROG, Topoki (last time the played well was with him fit) and Earls. They are reinforced with Paul O'Connell, Wallace and Leamy in the pack but the two of them are far from match sharp. Apparently a bug has been going around the team too. Ospreys are far from full strength as well, but still have a strong enough backline and strong home form going with them.

Last time Ospreys lost at home was back in Nov 2007 and the last 8 encounters by the sides have gone to the home team. With the H-Cup looming and weakened teams this is a tough to call, but Munster have not been playing well lately but will at some stage come good, a small bet on Ospreys could prove value.

Recommendation: Ospreys Halftime/Fulltime @2.52 for 0.5pt. Lost

Irish Rugby Provincial Festive Season Review

Current Profit: €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

So how was it for you?

Well it was a pleasantly entertaining festive period of Irish rugby with some great battles and an epic victory by Ulster to finish it off. So how are each of the provinces doing after the festive action and first half of the season?

Ulster: "I don't talk to referees. It's like complaining to your mother-in-law about your wife. It doesn't get you too far." - Matt Williams after defeat to Harlequins.

I always liked Williams, Leinster played some of their best rugby under him and he seems to be one of the good guys who sticks to viewpoints and beliefs. When he arrived he had to shovel a lot of shit out the door and he let his younger players play. They made a lot of mistakes up until November but they kept trying to play and now its paying off, with a double over Munster. Against Leinster they were player a tougher defensive team and errors cost them badly. They are an improving side and expect plenty of their players to push into the Irish team.

• Cheeky punt: If they continue their progression at the speed they are a cheeky punt on them to win the league as they effectively have nothing left to play for is worth a trade. Currently best price 100/1 on Stan James and bet direct.
• Player to watch: Ian Humphries, should be 1st choice Ireland player, offers so much more than the ageing predictable incumbent.

Leinster: "A lot done, more to do"

Being a Leinster follower its hard to know what to think, they blew bonus points and a victory away to Castre but go out and beat two teams relatively comfortably who beat Munster. There is no doubt about it, they are playing poor but they are winning against what seem to be form teams in Magners league. As for the H-Cup they are coming up against another Wasps team that might just be starting a comeback. I watched them two or three weeks ago and thought an Italian team would beat Wasps in Twickenham, I don't think they can improve too much, but the home game against Quinns tomorrow (4/1/08) will tell. With Cardiff this weekend I think they might start to click with hopefully BOD, Cullen and a rested Van Der Linde back in action. Remember their ten Isa, has only started three games for Leinster at that position.

• Cheeky punt: The 5/1 available on one exchange for Leinster to win Magners is ridiculous, definitely a worth punt, especially if H-Cup campaign goes badly.
• Player to watch: Sean O'Brien, already putting pressure on Jennings and forcing himself onto the team and Kearney playing FB now was immense against Connacht.

Connacht: "We'll fight them on the beaches....."

I said at the start of the year I expected them to perform better with the influx of quality young players. They have stuttered but this Christmas could be a coming of age for the province. Strangely the credit crunch could help them as players of the same ilk or position of Duffy, Frank Murphy and Johnny O'Connor, might find the lure of the euro or redundancy from other clubs an incentive to head way out west. They beat Munster with some excellent kicking and kept it very competitive against Leinster when some decision went against them. What they really need to do now is have a good run in the Challenge Cup and avoid bottom of the league.

• Cheeky punt: I said at the start of the season, back Connacht to win every home game. If you did so you'd be a wealthy man with Leinster and Munster being 1.1 and 1.12 shots over turned this season.
• Player to watch: Its obvious to say Keatley but I think the consistency of Frank Murphy is really helping them stay in games. With Reddan off form he could get a call up for 6 nations.

Munster: "Everyone wants to beat us because were Champions, Alex Ferguson".

Unfortunately Alex is right and everyone raises their game to Munster. They are going through a poor run since before Christmas, winning only one in their last 4 and the last two games have been a disaster. That said they have not had full strength squads. However with Topoki and O'Gara looking likely to be out for a few weeks things aren't getting any better. Their style of play seems to be their problem. They are trying to push it, not control it, not the Munster way. Sure Howlett, Topoki and Warwick come from a culture of attacking offloading, POC, Buckley, D. Ryan, Hurley, Dowling, O'Gara don't. They have committed more errors in the last two games than probably the whole of the second half of last season. Amazingly before Christmas they were matched at 1.63 to win Magners league, crazy stuff. Their squad depth is weak and they aren't playing well and aren't winning. Of course they'll come back but the Magners league could take a back seat. With a tough game against Sale in two weeks laying Munster might become a interesting tactic.

• Cheeky punt: Lay Munster to win H-Cup they'll probably get through to next round but could have a tough draw if they don't beat Sale which because of injuries could be tough.
• Player to watch: All eyes have to be on Warwick if O'Gara is out. He is class player who can break the game line, but they won't achieve much if you've got Barry Murphy and Lewis following him.

Happy punting in the New Year.

New Years Fixtures 31st - Jan 3rd

Cardiff vs Ospreys (Hairspreys)

When these two teams met at the beginning of the season, Cardiff were playing their 2nd game in four or five days and had a complete 2nd string squad out and lost by 40pts plus. In recent games the Hairspreys have flattered to deceive and haven't lived up to their hype but could be about to turn. They haven't been putting big scores against any decent sides, as was show by them not making the handicap against Scarlets at home.

Cardiff themselves are a solid team, with scoring ability when they have the power up front and with their strongest backline can score points. Cardiff have been rotating players in the past week for this game which they no doubt want to target as interest. Nicky Robinson is back in at 10, with Sweeney going to the bench. The Ospreys have dropped James Hook, who to be honest missed a few kicks last week and doesn't look in great form. Also Henson has been moved to 15 to accomadate his power running and Lee Byrne is in at wing.

Its going to be a tough game to call with, Cardiff on a 3.5pt handicap. I would say they'll probably make it however if the Ospreys can click (which they didn't last week but were close) could win and they look an attractive price. Interestingly looking at the scoring potential of both these teams, Cardiff on average over the last 6 games have scored 29 pts per game (against some good defensive sides), while Ospreys have scored on average 16points per game away from home (scoring points against good home opposition, Edinburgh & London Irish. With Welsh rugby all about attacking open play, if you combine those figures you get 45points, from averages would state that the overs look good. Last years game saw a scoreline total of 32 points however it was the first game of the season and Ospreys were missing their internationals. Two years ago at the same time of year its was a 54 points game.

Recommendation: Over 40.5pts @2.1 for 2 pts Lost& Ospreys to win @2.4 for 0.5pts. Won

Scarlets v Dragons

The Dragons have been a significantly better team this season then last year and have taken some big scalps (beating Ospreys two weeks ago) and keeping scores respectable (considering their whipping boy status last year). However I think that they are effectively about to hit a bad run of form, not in games lost (they've only won two since October) but in points difference, they are due a bad beat.

Scarlets on the other side have had an average to poor season and it took them three games to get a win in their new season but now I think they might have turned a corner, they are getting results and confidence. They only conceded a late try to the Ospreys last week to lose 20-6 (and they beat the handicap of 18.5, predicted here) and the previous week they played well against a slightly weakened Cardiff and had a comfortable 14 points win . They have three internationals back for this game with Stephen Jones (his boot is worth at least 9 points) coming back after a rest and I think they could find form to get a score against the Dragons. I can't get over how the handicap is only 9 points with some bookies (7pts early doors with StanJ) when they beat Cardiff two weeks ago easily. I think it should be 13-14. Dragons concede points away from home and lose, this handicap is too short.

Recommendation:- Scarlets to win - 7pts @1.91 (on Stanjames) for 3 points @ 1.91 Lost & Scarlets -14pts @2.75 (Paddy Power) for 1 point Lost.

Leinster v Connacht

Connacht come into this game on the back of another fantastic home win against Munster where they showed some great grit and excellent desire to keep a sloppy Munster from gaining any momentum. However today they are missing some key players from last weeks game, Cronin their 1 st choice prop and Irish international Gavin Duffy. For a squad as thread bare as this, it is hard to handle.

Leinster meanwhile have selected the best squad available (late fitness test on a stuttering B O'D), with Isa in at 10 which makes a big difference in terms of running and attacking ability compared to Sexton. He could possibly open up an inexpierenced 10 & centre partnership in Connacht. Also Kearney is in at full back adding more attacking and kicking ability than Dempsey.

Connacht have a good habit of playing well against their provinical brethren, however they also have a habit of playing out of their skin one week and then disastriously the next. Also if the team they meet after a good game is attacking and strong running it turns out a disaster (see London Irish and Ulster result). I don't think Leinster are as go forward or attacking as those however they'll take their chances. The handicap in this game is Leinster -20.5 on Betfair which I think is just about right, Boyles and Paddy's offering -19 @ 1.8 which is probably worth a small punt. However considering Leinster are so strong defensively this year I don't think they'll leak many tries so it could just be a four try bonus point game for them. I can't see Leinster racking up 6-7 tries for a 40 point score, or Connacht getting a sneaky try or two.

Recommendation:- Leinster -19pts for 1pt on Paddy power Lost@1.8 & Under 45.5pts on Betfair for 1pt @ 1.95 Won

Current Profit:- €1113.08, ROI 16.49% or 11.13 points.

Festive Season Bets Games - St. Stephen's Day-28th

Alright, we are back in action for the final few games in the Magner's league this season.

Dragon's vs. Cardiff -

The weaker teams in the Magners League have been improving all season as can be seen by Glasgow lying third and Dragon's beating Osprey's at home last week. I watched the second half of this game last week and the one thing that really impressed me was the never say die attitude of Dragon's and how they were able to put it up to their hair gelled Welsh cousins. This game is another massive grudge match and I think Dragon's are best equipped to take the battle to a tough yet uninspiring Cardiff team.

The Blues haven't won away from home since last May and they've only beaten the Dragons from their last 8 matches against Welsh teams. Unfortunately for the Dragon's they have only won one in the last six games against the Blues. However they really have turned a corner and improved their defence this season. It will be a tough game but I think that Dragons will be able to cross the line easier than Cardiff and should take a big scalp.

Recommendation:- Dragons +3.5pts for 2pts @1.95 Won

Osprey's vs Scarlets

It is a little surprising to see such a big handicap (17.5pts) in this game. There is no doubt that the Osprey's are a quality side and when you see the backline they are putting out tomorrow it looks pure international class. However that international form has not fallen into the Osprey's league form. The Ospreys have lost three of their last four in the league, but have won their last six at the Liberty Stadium in all competitions. If you ignore the H-Cup matches against whipping boys Treviso, they have only once come close to a 18 point victory, beating Worcester at home in the EDF by 15, since beating a shocking Ulster 43-0 in September.

Scarlets have been poor all season however they haven't been shipping massive defeats, the worst being away to Stade in H-Cup game. This is a derby and after winning last week against a weakened Cardiff they still won and are on a bit of revival.

I find it hard to believe that the Osprey's will suddenly be able to flick on a switch and beat a team like Scarlets by 18 points, who even if they are playing bad, always keep the score competitive and Jones will always take his penalties.

Recommendation:- Scarlets +17.5pts for 2 points @ 2.1, Won Scarlets +7.5pts for 0.5pts @ 3.75 Loss

Currently in Profit: €1642 or 27.83% return on investment.

H-Cup Round 3

The H-Cup is back after a really busy month of rugby, I don't know what it is about December rugby but I just love it in the build up for Christmas. Lets hope we can pick out a few bets to help stuff Santa's sack ;)

Ulster v Scarlets

Scarlets may have lost the Llanelli in their name, If I were one of their fans I'd be more concerned with the fact they they've lost the ablity to win. They've won just one game in the last five and that was in the EDF. Granted last week against Munster they were missing four of their front liners however Munster never play well after Autumn and before a H-Cup round. Thier away form has been poor all season only getting victorys against Ulster (who were shocking at the start of the season) and Dragons in early October.

Ulster meanwhile are kicking on strong as Matt Williams's side finally seem to be playing a full 80mins with a tough defence and strong straight line runners. They've lost Nagusa this weekend however they've got Danelli and Trimble back from injury. More importantly, Humph's Jr. showed a text book kicking display last week missing only one from about 7. With his boot on fire and Scarlets stuttering and seemingly finding it hard to get tries Ulster look to be better prepared, fresh and on form.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts @2.05 for 2pts. Won

Edinburgh v London Wasps

I've always been sceptical of Wasps ability and they really haven't clicked at all this season and have been very hit and miss. They are going to have plenty of internationals returning this week, but after England's display in November you can't say any of them are on form. Meanwhile, Scotland travel the safe road and some individuals are improving and Edinburghs team is as well. They are practically full strength tomorrow.

More importantly Edinburgh got an excellent away win to Castre (which effectively ended their interest in this years H-Cup) after being on the receiving end of a bad defeat to Leinster. Barring that Leinster win, which was a case of 4/5 errors in 20 mins but an overall solid performance, I think Edinburgh will have the beating of Wasps. They have an excellent home record and considering Wasps away record is mixed of late to full strength squads I think the evens on offer for Edinburgh is excellent. Especially if some bookies have them down at -2.5pts.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh to win @2.0 for 1.5pts. Lost


Clermont v Munster

Just looking at the game coming up.

Munster are way under priced for this game. They got a bonus point from a last minute try after Clermont gave up after getting three tries in the first half in this game last year.

Clermont have been erratic away from home but have shown up and performed each big home game. Beating Toulouse and Stade. At 1.8 to win at home against Munster who haven't played together properly for 6 (they rested some players last week) weeks it appears a steal. Munster are missing Tipoki which is big because Barry Murphy isn't the greatest in defence.

The handicap of -4.5 is nice as well but I'm happy to take the match odds and that price.

Recommendation:- Clermont to win @1.8 for 2pts.Won

Currently in profit: €1312.08 (13.12pts) and a 24.07% ROI