Autumn International Weekend Review

Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.

Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.

Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.

The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.

Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.

Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.

Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.

Ireland v Australia

More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.

On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.

Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.

I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.

Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.

"And now for something completely different"

As some of you may or may not know I work for Betfair in the marketing department, particularly for horse racing.

Anyway I made my first appearance on a live Timeform Radio show check out my debut performance at about 31mins, click here to download

Magners League Round 7

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).

Magners League Round 6

It was a pleasant weekend's betting and I finished narrowly up. London Irish seemingly so focused on beating Leinster two weeks ago couldn't beat a fired up Llanelli which surprised me and my bank balance. Well the H-Cup is parked until December so what's in store this weekend?

Ulster v Leinster

Another weather affected game this. It will be raining quite heavily from lunch time and continue with strong enough wind expected throughout the game. Right that's my Micheal Fish bit finished but it's important.

Team sheet wise the IRFU 2 year World Cup programme is really having an effect. Both teams are far from first choice in key areas but which are the ones that will matter the most. Ronnie McCormack starts in front row for Leinster in what will no doubt be a scrum heavy game and he is a severe weak link for Leinster against first choice front row for Ulster. Leinster have the edge in terms second row and Ulster losing Ferris is big. Horua who comes in is good but I think Leinster really have a form back row in what will be tricky conditions.

Once we get to the backs some interesting selection. Leinster's nine ten is very weak. Berne showed reasonably skill at 1st centre earlier in the season but not a great show at 10. Keane is an average Magners League player but if he can kick well it may cover up Leinster's weakness here. Humphries has been playing well this season but with Wallace rested at first centre once you get out of the scrum Ulster start to look a little ropey. Humphries also isn't the great defender in the world. Wallace is vital to linking up any moves which Ulster have been doing well with this season. Ian Whitten is a strong runner but himself and Trimble are similar and offering only straight line ability and no quick hands. Also neither can kick with ball in hand.

Overall I think Leinster with a strong 11-15 have the edge in the backs. One key point in their favour is that Ulster play from deep and defence a little bit deeper than most teams. Leinster have problems dealing with blitz defences but probably won't have that here. It won't be a classic but has to be better than the shocking game at Murrayfield last night and the unders are probably going to be the one to watch as traditional wet games in Ravenhill end up low scoring.

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 1.91 for 1pt with Stan James LOST, Under 34 points @ 2.0 for 1pt with William Hill WON.

Edinburgh v Munster

I find it quite funny when people get annoyed when no one prices up games for the Magners league on Betfair sometimes. Granted the liquidity can be poor on some games (markedly so this year) however it pays to price up matches. I often have a quick glance at the team sheets when they come out and throw up prices I'd be happy to get matched at. Today I went looking for Edinburgh at 3.0 thinking they would start at about 2.3ish. Bang got matched, it wasn't for much but I'm a happy camper. So if you have an opinion put up prices you'd be happy to get match at. Sure you can price it wrong and be caught on the wrong side (been there bought the...) but if it was a price you were happy to take and you considered it value then it was personally a good bet.

Looking at this game it's quite hard to call. The rain is supposed to come early and often and like Glasgow it should be heavy however not that windy. Both teams have had mixed European results and Munster are starting this season slowly. Edinburgh were very happy to beat an inform Ulster and they started to play well in the last 30 mins of the game. Munster this season seem to starting games very poorly and at this time of year they have traditionally not performed well after coming back from Heineken Cup games. Their set piece has been awful and can't be helped by missing three of their front row options because of injury. Edinburgh have proved tough to beat at home and with the return of Chris Patterson that's like starting off with nine points because of his right boot.

It's a very difficult game to call and I think the weather could stop Munster from kicking on from some improvement that was seen in the second half of their last game. The last four times they've met the score has only got past 35 points once, add that to the weather the unders look an option. Munster this season have been ridiculously slow out of the blocks, only being 6-6 against Dragons at home at half-time and letting their Italian opponents go 10 points up after 20 mins last week. I don't think it'll be a classic and Munster probably won't be able to build phases from weak set pieces so far this season but might just scrape it.

Recommendation: Edinburgh/Munster @6.5 for 0.5pt LOST and Under 38.5 pts @1.9 for 1pt on Betfair or other bookmakers, once they price it up WON.

Glasgow v Connacht

I've had a love hate relationship with cheering on or going against Connacht this year. They have just put two decent games together but importantly they often find it hard to put three together because of their small squad. They defence doesn't seem to travel to well either and on the road they concede a lot of points, on average 31 in the last 6 games.

Connacht have made two changes from last week however they are slightly weaker and no doubt suffering from fatigue. Their back and second rows aren't great and this season seem to be under the cosh for nearly every away game at every set piece. Glasgow return from Europe after two defeats albeit not by much. Importantly they now have their first choice centre partnership and Max Evans back on the wing for the first time this season.

Interestingly this time last year Glasgow started a bit of a run and have always been very strong at home. Connacht haven't won in Scotland for four games in a row and with a thin squad this could be another tough day in Scotland. The forecast predicts heavy rain from after lunch which could stop Glasgow's running style however at this fixture last yea, Glasgow managed to finish strongly and win 30-9 in howling wind and rain so it's not so much of a worry. After Connacht have travelled back from France, only had two or three days to train and just a few players changes I think that the handicap line of 14.5pt is achievable for Glasgow. The weather will be an issue but Glasgow are used to playing with the rain in the faces at Firhill.

Recommendation: Glasgow -14.5pts @ 1.91 for 1.5 point LOST. Price freely available.