Magners Leagure Weekend 10/09

Hello again.

I decided to leave the first week of Magners league action alone and just read the reports. Obviously a great result for the Benetton and a solid performance for Treviso against Munster and I was happy Leinster kept it respectable as we aren't fit and disorganised. So I'm hoping that some of the bookies and layers might over react to those games.

Osprey's v Benetton

Of course every Welsh team has high hopes at the start of the season but the Hairsprays have some excellent backup players to add to their International panel now. They lost to Ulster last week by one point but Ulster are the Man City of the Magners league now, spending and paying big with the IRFU's permission. Also Ulster played a lot more friendlies at the start of the season against tougher opposition so they were always going to win this. The Ospreys clicked into gear in the second half to only lose by just a point which was a good sign.

Benetton are the more solid and structured of the Italian teams and are not building from scratch. To put their win in context, Scarlets are shocking away from home, they've only won three times since 2009 away and their team is weaker than last year. For Benetton, I'm of the belief that even though the Magners League isn't anything like the H-Cup for intensity, they are going to find the higher level and away matches harder to be consistent.

Osprey's did play Benetton two years ago in the H-Cup and won away by 20 points and by 60 at home. Whilst Benetton are an improved side now and glowing after their first win I think that they are the team to punish others for mistakes. In Biggar they have a ten who can keep the score board ticking. Ospreys should be looking for a bonus point win and the handicap of 20 looks achievable. The weather doesn't look good for tomorrow which puts me off a spread or higher handicap but I'll take the standard line on.

Recommendation: Ospreys - 2o @1.91 for 2 pts with William Hill.

I'll be studying the Munster game a bit more tomorrow before making a judgement but it looks like Boyles are being a little generous with Edinburgh at -1, most others are -3 or higher. Won't last long.

More previews to follow......

Heineken Cup Semi Finals

Toulouse v Leinster

A year after Cheika joined Leinster, the province and this squad had their seminal moment beating Toulouse in one of the best games of rugby I've ever seen. Cheika has since shown why he was the most in demand coach when announcing he was leaving 'Les Blues' as he turned the bridesmaids into European champions.

On that day in 2006 Leinster were a different team playing a different style. The match was open, attacking and at some times just plain crazy. Remember this try? Anyway if Leinster of old were to show up with the same attitude, personally I think they could win this game.

Toulouse have a strong squad and are hardly carrying any knocks. Over the past few weeks their pack has become immense and according to the reports I've read Byron Kelleher is back in form after a quite patch. Leinster go to Toulouse with question marks over three or four players, limited game time for others and two losses all be it with weak squads. Sexton is a massive loss but the freshness and fitness of other players is more of an issue to me.

Against Clermont, Horgan and O'Driscoll were unfit and certainly lacking match sharpness. They haven't shown much since that game. The real battle is going to be in the scrum and without CJ starting Leinster are going to be going backwards at every scrum time. They are not going to get the possession and platform to play the percentage and pressure game they need. Depending on how Nigel ref's we could see them being pinged for numerous free kicks and penos. I just can't see how we'll have the opportunity to defend hard with a scrum going backwards.

In terms of a betting proposition the 1.4 for Toulouse is probably too short even though they should win. I couldn't really get overly excited with the handicap of 7 either. Personally I think that Toulouse will either lose or win by 15 or more and it's 50/50 on either of those. Watching Leinster as intently as I have for the past few months there is a worrying trend. They are becoming hesitant at the start, it happened against Clermont, Connacht and Ospreys. The only way they can win this is by starting strongly and keep the scrum working, that's how they won the cup last year. I might get involved if after 10/15 mins Leinster look like they're really up for it and the defence is in Toulouse face, I'll look at the Leinster +7. If it isn't I'll by looking to Toulouse +15.

Recommendation: No bet. Just enjoy it.

Magners League Weekend 16/4

Leinster v Ospreys

Just a quick preview before the price moves for tonight's big game before a price goes. Osprey's are playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have made a few changes but have clearly targeted their previous two games for wins, of which they got one. Beating Ulster has helped their cause massively to qualify for the Magners league playoffs.

Osprey's haven't beaten Leinster in any of their last 5 games home or away. Most bookies are going Leinster -7 or -8. To he honest before kick off that could drift out further.

William Hill are still Leinster -6 and I've taken some of that. Leinster are missing Sexton and O'Driscoll but are fine elsewhere. McFadden is playing and he is a strong kicker. I'd expect them to take this Osprey's team who have barely had two days in Wales since they lost to Biarritz.

Recommendation: Leinster -6 with William Hill for 2 points.

Magners League Easter Weekend

I'm back! It's been awhile I know and I did warn you that I would be quieter around the Internationals. Anyway straight into the action starting with the biggest game this weekend.

Connacht v Edinburgh

Connacht as you would only expect put on a good performance in the RDS last week and only inexperience cost them in the end. They've made a few changes today in order to keep them fresh for their big European next week. I've said it before (and sometimes got it wrong) that Connacht find it extremely hard to put two big games in a row. If I was Bradley I'd take a hit on this game for European glory and something to add to the CV when he leaves this summer. They have a strong team out but they've got an eye on next week.

Edinburgh have been stuttering about all season and been dogged by poor away form. They've been slightly unlucky as most of their away trips were to inform teams at the time. They have a strong line-up to chose from this weekend and you have to remember that they hammered Connacht 62-13 in Murrayfield at the start of the season. So how can a team who crucified their opponents and have a better team to choose from today be almost evens to win away? I personally had them at about 1.7 to win and maybe considering Connacht if there was a nice handicap but personally the current price is wrong.

Recommendation: Edinburgh to win at 1.91 for 1.5 pts (with Betfair/888Sport/Bluesquare), Connacht/Edinburgh in the Halftime/Fulltime market @7.2 for 0.5pt with Betfair.

Munster v Leinster

Enough has probably been said regarding the build up with the usual column inch filling clichés, so I'll just focus on the facts.

Leinster have had the upper hand in the last two games against Munster including a massive victory at the beginning of the season. However Munster weren't focused on that game and were worried about Northampton the following week (which they lost) and then Leinster went on and lost against Irish at home.

Looking at the head to heads an interesting stat comes across. In the last six games whoever has won has done so with an impressive margin of at least 7 points but generally around 15 points. Watching some of the games you would know that the scoreline didn't reflect the performance. Case in point being Thomand last season where a severely depleted Leinster were beaten 22-5 however it was just two shocking pieces of defending that game away two tries. A more pertinent fact I take interest in is that Leinster have lost three times this year away and ignoring the Dragons game which was a complete B team they put out, have not lost by more than 3 points.

Looking at the past six clashes there has never been more than a total of more than 33 points points scored. With the conditions underfoot likely to be at least soggy with the possibility of showers the total match points market should be of some interest.

I personally think Munster will win this game and need to win it more than Leinster both in terms of team morale but also their position in the Magners league for a home semi. Both teams have tough enough games next week and of course will have one eye on them. Munster perhaps having the easier of the two but they've stuttered all season unlike last year. Both teams laboured to a victory last week however I couldn't believe the handicap for the Leinster game, Connacht always put up a brave match and Leinster have rarely had 17pts on them.

Upfront I favour Leinster, personally I think Quinlan has past it, Ronan only plays one good in two and missing Paul O'Connell is a big loss to their pack, this should keep the game tighter. They rarely play amazing without him. The Munster back line and especially centre partnership should over power the ever improving but slight McFadden. I'm not happy with Dempsey on the wing for Leinster and he offers very little both in terms of pace and creativity aged 35. One of the new wingers should have had his chance today.

I think we are due a close points game for a change but the total amount of those points will be consistent with history. The bookies range from Munster -4 to -7 and the latter makes it an attractive proposition to back Leinster on the handicap.

Recommendations: Leinster +7 for one point at 1.91 with Bodog. Total Match Points under 36.5pts for two points with Boylesports at 1.8*.

*Also a spread bet is a good option here with sportsspread.com if rain does arrive it could dampen the fixture completely and you've a lot playing for you. Their spread is 33-36 and I can't imagine it being a massive open fixture with more than 40 points.

Magners League 05/03/2010

No time for a preview.

Ulster have a strong side who if they play the same as the did against the Dragons will open up Scarlets a lot easier.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.38 with Stan James for 1 point.

6 Nations Round 2

It's been a busy week pondering and reviewing last weeks disappointing games. With Ireland and France I personally saw two teams win their games in 30 mins and then decide not to show their main rivals anything for today's game. For the other game, well England apparently won but in my view Wales lost and it just so happened their were white shirts in front of them, England didn't do anything to deserve a win.

France v Ireland

Bastareaud, Bastareaud, Bastareaud. The media boy for the week after swatting some Scottish centres away and being 'unstopable'. Personally I think he is more damaging to the team who play with him than a team who can play at him. He allowed Scotland to break the line plenty of times by running up un-flanked from France's blitz defence. Most importantly France were trying to get this right because they know it's one of Ireland's weaknesses against such a defence. He could be as much of a liabilty as wrecking ball to Ireland. Also, I think his opposite centres know how to tackle and tackle hard.

Ireland last week showed they had moves for 20-30mins and then shut up shop, at least we know it's there. The scrum was excellent, Cullen helped POC destory the Italian line-out and Ferris, albeit recovering from injury, will add more to put pressure on the excellent French back row.

The fact is this is the championship decider and it's a pity the powers that be has put it so early in the calendar. I suppose the French & Italian tourist boards must bribe the officals so that they always have a home nation visiting them on Valentine's weekend. This will be a great game, possibly dominated more by power and determination than finesse which will play in Ireland's hands. Ireland go to Paris today with their best ever team in decades with the best coaching ticket they've had and a plus six handicap. You can't say this is the greatest French side, I'm not a fan of Trin-Duc yet and Scotland exposed plenty of holes in their backline and either side of rucks.

With all the talk of a new breed of French players and their superior power and skill, I think they have forgotten about a guy who showed up on the scene 10 years ago in this same fixture, he might have an impact today:





Recommendation: Ireland +6 at evens for one point with VC.

6 Nations Week 1

I've said in an earlier posting I'm going to take things easy at the start of the tournament because strange things happen every year, so baby steps for Saturday's games.

Ireland v Italy

Could Italy be one of those strange things, wound up by Magners League exclusion, not getting a fair crack at the whip and looking to put behind them what was a poor season last year. Thought, I don't think Italy are going to flick the switch and stop being crap however they couldn't be as bad as last year, can they? Parisse is out, they've a new 10 who I don't know much about and they are probably 4/1 for a back to score a try, throughout the tournament. They'll always be competitive upfront and you can't see that stopping with easy targets of Healy and Hayes and will have a strong tight five.

Looking at last years result of 9-38 you have to think the -20 at home for Ireland is perfectly obtainable. That result disguises what was an decidedly average performance from Ireland where they only just scored their first intercept try, followed by another one just before the half time whistle. Italy were six nil up at one stage and Ireland didn't score when they had a man sin binned after one minute.

As great as it look last season Ireland did play quite a patient game and used their experience, preparation and intensity to win every game. If they can apply a stronger attacking edge they will make this handicap. I was going to leave this game alone but after watching the A game tonight I'm more confident that Kidney is asking his players to start games properly and mix the point of attack.

Recommendation: Ireland -20 for 1 point at evens with Stan James/Bet Fred.

England v Wales

Naming the two sides for this fixtures has become something akin to musical chairs. Firstly the merry go around of the Byrnes appeal, then Tom Rees injured, Haskell a maybe, Gethin out, Flutey out. Hopefully the teams will be somewhat similar to the ones I've been looking at for the past half hour when they kick off at 17.30, but I'm sure someone will trip on their shoe lace for the captains run.

One thing that won't be changing in my opinion is Martin Johnson's approach to this game. I'm not his biggest fan in fact I don't think many are, but selecting Toby Flood and then mentioning he has 'good kicking and defensive game' speaks volumes for what England are going to try and do. Reel it right back in Johnny from your statement a month ago out an bold game approach. Expect Johnny W to sit back and play the percentages. As quality a player as he is. his style hasn't evolved over the past 5 years and blitz defences negate his stand off, sitting deep approach which once suited his left boot.

Wales have their critics too and plenty of questions to answer. Personally I think they won the worst the grand slam in the past while. Looking at their clubs performances this year and individual player performance they are playing ok, marginally better than last year. In terms of selections if I was a Welsh supporter I wouldn't like to see Hook playing 13 a quite unfamiliar position for him.

So the big question comes down to price, looking at it England are way to short, at 1.5 with some bookies, if only I could lay that. Sure they have home advantage, haven't lost two games in a row in Twickenham to the Welsh for years but you couldn't trust them. The November internationals identified a lot of problems for both teams but I think that Wales have a much better chance of improving quicker than England. If their offloading game returns the English backlines' defensive capabilities don't inspire me.

There are a lot of if's and buts. The stats are against Wales to win but England, from being in a good position on Wednesday, are now suddenly looking worried without Flutey. They'll dominate in the scrum but that won't win them the match.

Recommendation: Wales +5 at evens for one point with Victor Chandler

Ireland A v Scotland A

Ireland A v Scotland A

Just a quick preview before this game kicks off (available on RTE.ie or BBC Northern Ireland online if your interested).

Two strong squads for both teams. Blair, Danelli, Murray for Scotland and Horan, Humphreys and a great back row for Ireland.

Scotland A have sprung a suprise before whacking the Ireland A's last year but I'm going to have to side with Ireland A. I'm refusing to call them there new stupid name however. The handicap of -6 is about right and I could see Ireland sneaking it as they have the advantage of playing a game together last week.

However on inspection of the odds a cracking bet for a team who held possession well last week and only lost out by rusty errors and some wierd selections the Ireland/Ireland halftime/fulltime result looks good.

Recommendation: Ireland/Ireland HT/FT at evens for 2pts with William Hill. WON

6 Nations Outright

Ah Spring terrestrial TV rugby, nothing like it to make everyone egg chasing experts.

This year the 6 nations is looking like its going to be very interesting with Ireland playing two tough away games and some of the other teams looking to improve after a dreadful November internationals. First a quick team preview:

Ireland (3.5 to win outright)
A full calendar year without defeat, actual competition at ten, the strongest attacking and defensively organised backline in the northern hemisphere. Sure it can only get better right? Grand slam wins don't come in two's (just ask Wales) and with tough away games I think the slam is out of the question. The front row is clearly an issue as Hayes is not the saviour he once was or that fit, Healy still lacks international experience after bursting onto the scene and our likely hookers haven't got 6 games between them this season! All being said in last years tournament they had only 7 out of 400 rucks turned over on them and retained possession the most. Tight, efficient, brilliant defensively, an ability to handle the kicking game but they just need to learn to attack a little more away from home. Will that be enough though for a win in Paris?

France (2.66 to win outright)
Do you trust them, seriously do you? I trust the players more than the coach. However the French game has been sucked of some of it's flair this year. Apparently the Top14 has the lowest try rate of any league in Europe, however just look at how many teams they have in the H-Cup quarter finals. Paris will be a fortress but a tricky trip to Murrayfield on Sunday will be a test of them jelling as a team. It's a cliche to say it but if they want to they could destroy most teams, however they probably won't and lose one important game.

Wales (6.5 to win outright)
Can Gatty get them back on track? Ospreys have looked a much better team since Christmas, players are starting to come back from injury but you have to think they won a weak grand slam two years ago. Stephen Jones is a quality club player, he can run a show but he is slightly one dimensional and predictable internationally. Perhaps Biggar might get some time to shine but with trips away to Twickenham and Dublin I don't think they're suddenly going to click after last years poor performance. Cooper their new scrum half is also going to be in for a shock.

England (the odds.... it doesn't matter they can't win)
Excuses, cliches, curtains they all cover something up. That 'something' is that Martin Johnson is not an international coach. They have poor direction both on and off the pitch and it's becoming embarrassing on some of his selections and announcements on what he wants his team to do. He stated they are now going to play an expansive game, sure Martin just flick the switch there and off you go. Picking Tait and Flutey doesn't mean you have an expansive game when Wilko is going to stand so far back when they get the ball they'll be smashed. There has to be an improvement from November and their one try (in fairness they were top tryscorers in this tournament last year), they'll have one big game in them but probably be unspectacular for the rest and they'll probably kick away all their chances.

Scotland
With Euan at mass on Sunday against France and issues at ten the Scots still maintain their optimism. Whilst Glasgow have been performing very well all season and they'll have a competitive pack you'd have to question whether the Evans and Lamont will be giving the right platform to score tries. Patterson will always keep them close but when push comes to shove they won't be able to get the tries they need. I expect they could take England at home but only if they are able to open up and have a free flowing game.

Italy
*****Holding Copy******Please return to this section after first game. I hope they won't be like last year, more of the 2008 vintage please Mr. Mallet.

What to bet on?

Well it's a case of what you could have had a bet on. William Hill had England to get the wooden spoon at 80/1. On Betfair 60's has been match so they can't claim an error and they still had a 108% book at that price. It's gone now though

An interesting market stuck up by Bluesquare is their 'to score a try anytime'. Riki Flutey opened up at 2.1 and Matthew Tait 2.83. I managed to get a little on but they've both shortened to 1.83 and 2.37 respectively. Personally I still think they are value. Flutey will get a try and England will score against Italy away and can't afford to experiment with new partnerships. I'd expect both Tait and Flutey to start most of the games barring injury and considering Flutey got 4 tries in last seasons tournament he should grab at least one. Preferably on Saturday so I can rest easy. It may seem like a contradiction in terms to say I was going to back England for a wooden spoon and then I back two English guys to score but they are good value.

What really is interesting comes three weeks down the line with England v Ireland. England start this weekend as favourites against Wales who at least will know what they want and can do. Paddy Power have kindly priced up Eng v Ireland already. Right now I would have Ireland as narrow favs and as shown in November internationals will probably peak closer to the end of the tournament as many of their players are fresh. Unless Paddy knows England are going to kick ass this weekend I'm surprised to see Ireland +2 for Twickenham. Sure we don't have the greatest record their, winning narrowly 4 years ago for triple crown and being beaten last time out quite comprehensively. Barring Ireland completely under performing this weekend and the next I don't see how anything but a sensational performance by England this weekend is going to stop this being a scratch game or Ireland as narrow favourites. England play Italy after Wales away and in that game they really have more to lose than to gain in relation to their performance and effecting their odds for the Ireland match. Get a nice position now.

I'll try and get a preview up on Friday for the weekend, I won't be going big this weekend as I didn't do too well last year. Baby steps....

Recommendations:

Riki Flutey to score any time during the tournament @ 1.83 for 2 points with Bluesquare.
Matthew Tait to score any time during the tournament @ 2.37 for 1 point with Bluesquare.
Ireland + 2 against England @1.91 for 2 points with Paddy Power.

One final note or more like question, would you back that either England, Wales, Scotland or Italy at 3.0 to win the tournament outright? Nope, me neither 1.5 on either Ireland and France looks good.

Half Term Report - Punting Highs and Lows

Well technically it may not be half term but now is as good a time as any to review the punting so far this rugby season.

After a blistering start which saw me hit over 18pts of profit and an ROI of about 40% by mid Oct, it was a little shaky after then. Between the end of Oct till the end of December saw me lose 5pts and really drag down the ROI. One thing to take from this period was that some of the games were quite close and I wasn't calling the games massively wrong. I would have been worried if that was the case.

As I kicked into the New Year I had some very succesful results and ended up 3pts back to 17pts of profit by the end of January. Whilst I haven't kicked on since early October I'm quite happy by my jugdement of games. My bet type selection and point allocation could be sharpened to get the most of my game analysis. Personally I've dabbled a little in spread betting on handicap lines and most of my two to three point handicap selections would have paid much better than straight up handicap lines and odds of 1.91.

I hope that you've enjoyed the blog so far this season and I'm rubbing my hands in anticipation of the 6 nations. Last year it was a big red mark on my spreadsheet so I'm going to be a little cautious but I believe it should produce some value bets.

I'm hoping to do a preview in the next few days and might have a small outright bet. Thanks for all the comments this year and I hope that your still in profit too.

England A v Ireland A

Profit after this match: £1704 or 17.04 points ROI 25.44%

The first of the A internationals for this year and it throws up an interesting betting market.

Earlier on in the week after seeing the Irish squad I decided to throw a few prices up on the machine. Before seeing both starting line-ups my view was Ireland A (or soon to be known as 'The Wolfhounds') are a proper team. Most of the players will player together or against each for much of the season. They spend a lot of time in camp together, they've plenty international expierence and most importantly they are paid to perform a job for their country as well as province.

Team England on the other hand don't even have a proper first team, have spoken about bringing a new approach to the 6 nations and have never looked liked playing together or even knowing who the person next to them is.

Based on this belief I stuck a lay up on England at 1.5 on Tuesday thinking this would be an excellent value lay as I only gave them a 40%-50% chance of winning. Well I got matched as most of the bookies priced it up at 1.35. I think people may have over-reacted to the weakness in Ireland's front row. Buckley in my opinion is useless (expect to see Ross brought on early) and shouldn't be in the squad and Best and Horan are coming back from injuries, however at least these two have plenty of full international expierence. England posesses one excellent scrummager but Doran-Jones is far from one.

Looking at the rest of the pack you'd have to say Leinster, sorry Ireland A have an excellent mixture of up and coming players in O'Brien, Toner and solid expierence and guile with O'Driscoll and Jennings. At 9/10 you've got an exciting partnership even though Wallace is a 12 but plenty of ability to attack and more so than his opposite number. The centre partnership might not be the greatest but they played together along with the others outside them when they demolished Argentina A's in Tallaght.

England have some good players in Strettle and Waldouck in the back line but as Gearghty showed last week for Northampton he isn't a ten and has an obsession with kicking the ball away.

It'll be a close game but the handicap of +8 for Ireland has to be snapped up. I may lose my lay on England but I still would have had the game a lot closer than what the bookies have it.

Recommendation: Ireland +8 for 2pts @1.91 with Corals or Betfair.WON

Heineken Cup Round 5

Leinster v Brive

As always the question many ask for this game is will the French side bother turn up? I'd rather be asking are Leinster ready to turn up?

I don't think Leinster will lose this one, and you'd hope not at a price of 1.02. To be honest though, two teams in the Heineken cup should have such disparging odds as was shown by Treviso earlier this season when Perps came to visit.

With Leinster not having played a game since shortly after Christmas, Jennings and Sexton needing game time and the fact that often when a team gets to 3 tries kicking the points isn't an option I think Brive in the handicap are worth a shout. Leinster have famously struggled even when in good form to put teams to bed when they need a bonus point, however it never stopped them progressing. Remember London Irish only got their bonus point in the last minute in their game against Brive.

Brive haven't their strongest team out but as was seen with Montaubaun in Munster last year, if you have plenty of non French players they still like to take a scalp or put up a fight. Plus they are match fit, have regained some form and won't be encountering anything close to dry hard running pitch which would favour Leinster. With a new coach at Brive players should be out to impress and stick their hands up as they are only a few points off H-Cup qualification again now in the leauge..

Recommendation: Brive +30 at evens for 1.5pts with Boylesports Won. First scoring play, Leinster penalty @2.75 for 1pt with all bookies Lost.

Yesterday's bets:

Ulster v Edinburgh - Ulster HT/FT @ 1.73 for 1pt with Stan James. Lost
Connacht v Montpellier - Connacht -6 @ 1.91 for 2pts with plenty of bookies. Won
Glasgow v Dragons - Glasgow HT/FT @ 1.86 for 1 pt with Betfair. Won

Magners League Jan 2nd

Update - Leinster game has just be cancelled.

Sorry I haven't been posting much over Christmas but some of the games have been unattractive in terms of value. Today is certainly the case in Ireland but not so in Scotland.

Edinburgh v Glasgow

Currently there is sleet showers in Edinburgh and they had Baltic conditions over night, actually where didn't? I was just a point off on unders in Firhill and with Edinburgh having the home advantage today they'll probably stop a strong Glasgow side from kicking plenty of points.

Edinburgh aren't scoring tries and I can't see it being turned around today. Glasgow should be good for a win although they haven't got one here since 2000 but they are playing well.

Recommendation: Glasgow +5 for 1pt with Paddy Powers WON, Under 34 points at evens for 2 points with William Hill LOST.

Connacht v Leinster

Leinster have 9 internationals but you wouldn't be inspired by their performance last week which contained plenty of handling errors. Connacht with about 4 ex Leinster players are always up for this but it's too hard to predict where this is going to go.

I'm going to stay away from this game but my gutt says Connacht might actually nip it in the outright. Leinster had trouble last season motivating themselves for this game, maybe they won't make the same mistake however as we saw with the Dragons away resting a lot of players can drop the squads motivation.

Ulster v Munster

This is an in-running game or betting once you see the pitch for me as you really got to see the conditions in Ravenhill before each game. Rain/sleet is predicted at 6pm according to BBC so the under 35 points with Hills at evens is probably something that won't stay for long if it arrives.

I've thoroughly enjoyed watching Ulster and with a first choice squad back and a strong performance that lacked international finishing (which has now returned) they are deserved favourites. However given the level of their performance in Thomand last time I would expecting odds of 1.8 in the outright.

Really it boils down to how Munster will peform. Ulster should dominate them in the second row with much stronger back three and Humphries and Wallace should be more creative than Warwick who is slotting in at 10. Personally I think Ulster will either win by 10 or lose.

Recommendation: Ulster -9pts at 3.0 for 0.5pts with Will Hills.LOST