Christmas Magners League Fixtures

Leinster v Ulster

I'm quite suprised by the amount of changes that Ulster have made for this game as I really thought they would give it a go. Unfortunately I think they might be looking to damage limitation on the day.

Their centre partnership have played a lot together but are by no means a match for Leinster's and with Reddan showing some strong form and with quick ball because of a dominant pack in front of him expect the Ulster backs to be facing an on slaught.

Leinster have traditionally played well over the Christmas season and I don't see it stopping here. Considering they've beaten Ulster by over 25 points in each their last two home games the minus 13 handicap on Leinster looks good. Add this to the fact that in three of their last four games Ulster have shipped over 20 points in each you'd have to fancy a full strengh Leinster.

Recommendation: Leinster -13points for 2pts with most bookies LOST

Scarlets v Ospreys

I mentioned a few weeks ago before the Ospreys Munster game that the Ospreys were focusing on key games. If they aren't focusing on this game after watching the Scarlets in the last two games they must be crazy.

Luckily they have a strong team out and sure derbies are always close events but the last two meetings of these teams has seen Ospreys win both home and away. Also their next two games against are home to Cardiff and away to Ulster which they may seek to take a hit on.

Having witnessed how poor the Scarlets have been in the past week it's no suprise to hear they have only won once in seven. They are leaking tries left right and centre and have no sort of blitz defence. This type of defence is what hurts teams like Leinster and Ospreys. I'm sure they'll be more competitive infront of a sold out stadium however I reckon 40-50% of the stadium will be following the boys in black from up the road.

With a strong running backline and what looks like hard ground I fully expect the Ospreys to win this game.

Recommendation: Ospreys -3pts at evens for two points with Bluesquare or 888sport. WON

Munster v Connacht

After defying all the odds the true Munster showed their colours for a fantastic victory last week. As for myself, I was a non-believer and one of the doubters in their ability to pull off even a bonus point loss and I never seem to learn from my mistakes with these lads.

Connacht had another win in the Challenge Cup and look to be improving as the season continues. They generally grab a derby scalp or two during the year but these are always at home. They've put out a strong side and the one improvement they have applied this year is more powerful back play with the strong running N Ta'auso.

Munster have made nine changes to last weeks victory and although their replacements are capable players this is by no means a walk in the park for them. Last season Munster fielded a slightly more inform and stronger side than this and won by 15 points. Tomorrow's team has a bit to much reconstruction for my liking and for a backline that has only clicked once or twice this season there are a few too many green players. Importantly Munster have started every half slow this year and with this derby game I'd expect the same.

Recommendation: Half time handicap Connacht +7 @ 1.91 (most bookies) for 1pt. LOST

Glasgow v Edinburgh

The last few Christmas games between these teams have always been high scoring affairs. Briefly looking at the teams today they both seem at almost full strength and the handicap line of Glasgow -4 seems about right, if a touch generous for a Glasgow team who are top of the table. They've been playing well all season and Firhill has turned into a bit of a fortress.

Edinburgh of late haven't been scoring tries but getting some results. You'd have to favour Glasgow at home here however I don't think it's going to be as free scoring as previous games have been. Edinburgh haven't been scoring tries and statistically you can't have 5 clashes of these teams going to unders. If the 'total points' is priced up on previous meetings it could be a bit of value.

Recommendations - Glasgow to win -4 @1.91 (with most bookies) for 1 point WON

Heineken Cup Round 3 Tipping

Saturday and Sunday Games

I'm off on the train to Llanelli very early tomorrow morning so I haven't had the time to check the other games.

Initial thoughts looking at the fixture list but these are by no means recommendations

Viadana v Ospreys - If Osprey's are missing key players they may miss the handicap
Ulster v Stade - Ulster need Wallace to win this, possibly could be 10 pt win by Stade if Glasgow beat them by 7pts last weekend.
Cardiff v Toulouse - Perps did well yesterday. If Toulouse have decent team they should beat the handicap.
Brive v Irish - In-running game. If Brive are up for it Irish could be in trouble as they've lost form.
Llanelli v Leinster - I'm at the game so look out for me. Leinster on paper have great team but the 9/10 is weak. If Berne starts well we might make it, otherwise I'm on unders.

Enjoy the weekend and hope you find a few winners.


Glasgow v Gloucester

In theory this game will probably be more interesting than the one in Thomond. You've got two teams who appear to be at full strength and a tight handicap line favouring the home side. A classic rugby game.

The slight favouring of home side of evenly matched teams is fair enough, personally I think it should be more than just slight in this case. I'll always favour a Magners league team performing well against an on/off performing Guinness Premiership team.

Gloucester don't seem to be playing brilliant this season and can't seem to get any consistent form. In fact the one thing they have done consistently is lost away from home winning only one in seven and shipping an average of almost twenty nine points . Whilst they've beat Leicester at home with a lucky knock-on, Leicester were missing Flood who actually helps them score tries. Also they seem to be coming back late and starting their games slowly, whilst Glasgow are the opposite.

Glasgow have only lost twice at home this season both in the Heineken Cup. Once to the best team in Wales, the Dragons and rather unluckily against Biarritz. They are also on the back of a good win away to Ulster who themselves have gone off the boil lately but aren't easy to beat at home.

Both teams possessing strong kickers but Parks gets the nod, the fella just doesn't miss. Personally I think Glasgow are playing well as a unit and have grown up a lot this season. They're top of the Magners league at the moment and have to win this game to hold any hope of getting through. I'll wear my Magners league blinkers on this one and go for Glasgow.

Recommendation: Glasgow to win @ 1.73 for 1 point with Tote Sport. Glasgow/Glasgow HT/FT for 1 points @2.5 on Tote Sport. Glasgow -2 pts for 1 point with many bookies.

Magners League Round 8 Betting

Ospreys v Munster

The Magners league gets a fair amount of stick because some provinces take the hit on certain games in order focus on the Heineken Cup. Looking at the Munster team this weekend you can't say that they are taking this game lightly.

Ospreys however are a bit of a different story. Whilst they are ravaged by injuries some of the comments made by their coach in the press are quite worrying for their chances;

"Selection has been made with a few things in mind, we need to send out a team that will be competitive against Munster while taking into account the heavy workload that some of the international boys have had over the last month, and the big games that we've got coming up over the next few months."

Ospreys are playing Viadana away next week which they should win and they'll be pushing for a bonus point victory. Looking at their team, it's not the weakest they have ever put out but their back line is shaky.

The weather is definately going to be a factor for this game with rain predicted. Munster's scrum and lineout should have the edge and you could see during the international period the Irish players were getting to full fitness after a stuttering start for club and country. The only worry is their backrow who certainly are less experienced than the Ospreys that been said the boys in black haven't fired all season. Fitness will be a concern for the Ospreys as haven't played any rugby at any level for two weeks whilst even the non Munster internationals have been playing A games.

Munster haven't lost to Ospreys in their last four meetings and I don't think it's going to change here. They should win this with ease and their is a sense of urgency for them to get their season in order. Comments from the Ospreys manager for me show that winning on Saturday isn't their ultimate priority and Munster should have the power and sharpness to win no matter the conditions.

Recommendation: Munster to win @1.75 for 2pts with Sporting Bet LOST, Munster -2 @1.91 for 1pt with most bookies LOST.

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time to write preview. Both teams normally start well after International break however Ulster missing three key players and Glasgow have a strong side. Bad weather as per usual expected in Ravenhill.

Recommendation for tonight's game: Glasgow +7.5pts @1.9 for 1 point on Betfair WON. Under 35.5 pts @1.83 for 1 point on Bet365 LOST.

Ireland v South Africa - Clash of the hemisphere champions

I can't wait for this game to kick off. It's been a big tease this whole Autumn International series knowing that this is waiting for us at the end.

This trip north for the Saffies has been difficult and they are clearly tiring. They had a long list of injuries at the start of the week but a fair few of them came through which somewhat exaggerated their price. In fact it's been a very interesting price graph on Betfair for the past 3 weeks. The Springboks starting off at the 1.65ish mark drifting after losing badly to Leicester and France. Their price moved quickly out past evens once Sexton was confirmed to start along with the fact they had cancelled training on Monday. The latter probably being more important.



I was very tempted to back them at 2.1 on Monday because the fact is they should never got that big. Should have, would have, could have and they are now back to the right price of 1.85.

To be honest I've found it very hard to formulate any straight forward bet apart from a bit of pre-match trading. Ireland will no doubt be sharper today and they'll need to be. If their forwards run off into the distance without protection like they did against Australia there will be turnover ball all day with Brussow sniping at the edges.

Personally I believe Sexton will unleash the backline much better than ROG ever can. Sure the Boks are going to be 'targeting' him however that if he handles it well this can play into Ireland's favour. Having a 7 or 1st centre looking to charge him down can allow him to create space for Wallace. Paddy is a completely underrated play-maker and if he has an inch of space he'll create plenty of openings for Bowe and BOD.

It's going to be a tough bruising game but Ireland will be the fitter fresher team. I believe the prices are about right now as Ireland should never have gone favourites for this game which they did do briefly on Tuesday. I'm going to be sitting back and watching this game with a small value bets and a pint in hand. In fact there may be a few pints drunk considering the last game of today's fantastic schedule ends 7 hours after Ireland's kick off. Bring it on.

Recommendation: South Africa/Ireland Halftime/Fulltime for 0.5pts at 8.0 on Betfair. Tommy Bowe to Score anytime @4.33 for 0.5pts on Paddy Power.

Ireland A vs. Argentina Jaguars

So why are they called the Jaguars?The question you should really ask is why is their first team called the Pumas? On all Argentinian jerseys the crest includes a Jaguar however on one of their first appearances on an international stage in South Africa one journalist took it onto himself to come up with a catchy nick name for the team a la 'the Springboks'. However he was obviously never on a safari and got the picked the wrong animal.

A simple enough mistake to make and another could be made here tonight on two fronts. One thinking that because there are so many amateurs in this side Argentina they aren't that strong and two that this is a strong Irish side.

The fact is Argentina as a whole are improving and not just in the pack. If you looked at how their backline against England they were vastly superior even though they had a few amateurs in it. This A team have actually played together a fair bit and have had a few impressive results including only losing by 8 points to England Saxons in the Churchill Cup. Also they seem to be improving as they beat Canada and USA in that tournament and then beat them again recently more comprehensively albeit representative sides.

This Irish side has plenty of well know players but personally most of them I don't think will ever make the international stage. Sure they'll be fitter and have a greater skill set than the Argentina but they aren't amazing. Ireland's pack is very average, with only Mike Ross really going to be holding it up. Ronan as I've said before isn't a great player and the two second rows are far from dynamic. Boss and Humphreys are in form however this whole backline is very small and relatively inexperienced apart from Dowling.

I fully expect Ireland to win but the only bookie I can find pricing it up (Paddy's) might be reading too much into how they beat Tonga who were a ramshankle side. Argentina have played together plenty of times, Ireland don't have a strong back row and it looks to be a windy night. The 18 point handicap is something to get me interested in.

Recommendation: Argentina Jaquars + 18 for one point on Paddy Powers

Do you remember?

.... the complaints when England, Ireland, Wales and France fielded 'under strength' teams on summer tours to the southern hemisphere just a year or two ago?

Well its funny how if you're from down there you can call it 'blooding' and 'future building'. Clearly those S14 boys have better PR skills.

Just a thought.

Autumn International Weekend Review

Managed to get to watch a couple of the weekend's games and had a few thoughts.

Firstly, Argentina were excellent and are a credit to rugby. For a team with four amateurs and missing five first choice players their backs showed a bunch of incompetent fools how to mix a kicking and running game. They were clever, tried moves and nearly got a result that, considering the resources they posses should have never been on the cards. Obviously Argentina's two best players were Ugo Monye and Martin Johnson were making all the right decisions for him.

Granted, England are missing some key players themselves but you never ever play someone who has a low skill set at full back, let alone a person who doesn't play there for his club. A lot of noise is made about the kicking tactics that is ruining the game in the UK, I think it's becoming more prevalent because of lack of skill set. The fear of losing has allowed players with limited ability or any bit of flair perform in the Premiership, the "they don't make mistakes" mentality.

The English team needs to change the mood of the nation and it's the style, firstly by starting to praise players who don't always play the percentages and go for it. This will then in turn flow into the Premiership and build on the massive crowds they are drawing this year. Once Johnson realises that the damage limitation process which he has been using since he got the job and has failed him is not going to improve England's World Cup chances then he just has to go. Actually to be honest, Rob Andrew has to do two things, sack the entire English management now and then sack himself for hiring someone with zero management experience.

Back over in Croke Park we saw an interesting and entertaining game. For some reason I knew we would never lose but was obviously disappointed to lose my bet. I over estimated our ability to gel again, really I should have known better as most of the Irish players involved in the Lions haven't been playing well this season and some like Hayes and Flannery have barely played at all. Overall Australia I think moved up a gear and really showed they are becoming a good team. Robbie Deans is a quality coach and a brave one who is happy to lose games in order that in two years they'll be a proper team with a chance of making the semi's. Kidney needs to take a leaf out of his book in my opinion. Sure he blooded a new prop but decision that was forced on him. Sexton deserved game time if not a starting berth because he is the form outhalf followed by Humphreys.

Looking forward to this weekends games I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the handicap for England v New Zealand. The Kiwi's are far from their best team ever however it's blatantly obvious you could say the same for England. Johnson has already admitted they need to step up a gear and apply some damage limitation next weekend. What a confidence booster for those players.

Recommendation - New Zealand -12pts for 1pt on Bet365.

Ireland v Australia

More a price alert than anything as a full preview will be available later in the week.

On Sunday we see Ireland v Australia and the start of Ireland's attempt to get a perfect season. We realistically have a chance of going the whole entire year as unbeaten which would be a some feat. After watching most of the England v Australia I'm fairly confident that Ireland can brush the Wallabies aside. Australia were in control against England but really you'd have to question what sort of a side that English team was. The handicap of -3 for Australia at the start of the week was ridiculous as even as bad as they have been in the Tri nations they are still a much better unit than the injury hit English team.

Ireland don't have the same issues as England have and possibly come Wednesday's team announcement will have only one or two enforced changes since their last game together against Wales. Horan is out but has a brilliant replacement in Cian Healy who should have started ahead of him anyway. Flannery is fighting to be fit but this could be a blessing in disguise as he hasn't played many games yet this season. Although Munster have looked off so far this season I think this has more down to management than players and Leinster have started as they did last year. Irish rugby is structured to peak at the right time and this Autumn Internationals opener sees a 6 nations winning squad come up against a team that has just started their two year building process.

I managed to grab some 1.97 earlier today and anything to 1.85 is value in my opinion. Ireland should be about 1.7ish. I suggest you take a little bit of this price now as we could end up having a handicap of about -2pts or -3pts for 1.91.

Recommendation - Ireland to win for 2pts @ 1.93 on Betfair.

"And now for something completely different"

As some of you may or may not know I work for Betfair in the marketing department, particularly for horse racing.

Anyway I made my first appearance on a live Timeform Radio show check out my debut performance at about 31mins, click here to download

Magners League Round 7

After this weekend's games current profit stand at: £1712.35 or 17.12pts with ROI 43.91%

Edinburgh v Dragons

Not a lot of time to write a full preview for this game. These two teams have spent the season swinging in and out of form but as per usual Edinburgh are good for a win at home.

Where the value lies is in the unders market. Dragons are missing a few players but the weather is quite bad in the city. Heavy rain since this morning and the Dundee v Rangers game was called off at half time because of torrential downpours.

With three of the past four meetings of these teams not beating the overs this looks a safe enough bet to end the weekend on a high note.

Recommendation:- Under 32.5pts @1.9 for 1 pt with Ladbrokes WON.

Leinster v Cardiff

With ten players missing due to Welsh national duty and three first teamers injured this could possibly be the worst travelling Cardiff team to ever get off the ferry from Hollyhead. Their front row is missing two first choice players and has a débutante at hooker. Their number 4-8 mixes from average Mangners league men to out of form internationals. In their backline it doesn't get much better where they look thread bear and in what won't be amazing conditions they possess a poor 9-10 combo.

Leinster meanwhile are in rude health in terms selection and injuries. I thought they might sneak a win in Ravenhill last weekend however their 9-10 combo was shocking and cost them dearly. Starting Ronnie Mc was a mistake too. They are now turning up at home with a distinct chance of getting a bonus point victory. In the starting XV only Kearney doesn't make it but Nacewa is at full back and arguably he has been better than Kearney this season.

The issue I have with following my beloved Leinster is that they have a history of not beating the handicap at home when they should. So why would it be different this time? Well apart from Cardiff being extremely depleted, this season even their first XV have played awful away from home. They've lost all three of their away games this season and conceded an average of 23 points. What is more worrying for them is that these games were against Connacht, Munster (who haven't exactly been on fire this season) and Sale who had not won one of their previous four games before that game.

The weather appears to be worst in the morning at the RDS and with a strong wind due hopefully it will take the moisture away from the pitch and we should see some good rugby. Leinster haven't been amazing this season however reading interviews with coaches and players they are gutted after losing to Ulster in an unprofessional manner. The strength of this team says to me that Cheika isn't taking any chances and wants a bonus point before the break.

Recommendation:- Leinster -12pts for 1.5pts @1.91 with Stan James WON. Leinster -23pts for 0.5pts @3.75pts with William Hill or Betfair LOSS.

Munster v Ulster

This is the best provinical clash of the weekend and I'm looking forward to it. On one side you've a team who have won the European cup and play the type of rugby that gets everyone to love the game. Whilst on the other side you've a team which have had questions marks over them and haven't done the business since their last manager left. The latter Munster, are in a bad place right now. With one former player trying to make a name for himself by saying there is trouble in the camp this is becoming similar to the RWC2007 rumour mill.

Personally I think it's quite easy. ROG has played crap since Febuary last year, their front row is ageing/injured and has been going down hill since last winning the European cup. Add these to the fact there isn't enough young lads keeping the forwards on their toes and we are getting closer to the real issues.

Ulster meanwhile arrive in Limerick in a good position. After destroying them in the same venue they won't have any fears of tackling Munster. Their team sheet is boosted by the return of a player I think should be Ireland's next captain, Stephen Ferris. Also Paddy Wallace also returns to work his playmaker skills and set up tries. With rain likely to dissipate by midday Ulster might get the conditions they need to run at Munster who have not been the greatest in defence this season. Munster meanwhile are light upfront with Stephen Archer starting his first game for the province and will have a trouble against Irish international Tom Court. They might not get the platform to attack which has been awol for them all season.

Personally I think Munster's poor form will probably end here. They are a wounded animal and if they don't win tonight there will be many serious and pertinent questions asked about the teams elder statesman and the coaching ticket. As I noted last week and almost profited from it, Munster have been slow starters and I think this is where the value lies. Ulster have started every game well so far this season but sometimes fail to close it out. The 1.3 for Munster is too short in my opinion even though I think they'll grab a win, but by how much? Expect Ulster to start well but maybe not get all the points.

Recommendation - Halftime Handicap Ulster +4 @ 2.0 with William Hil LOSS. First tryscorer Nagusa @15 for 0.5pts with Boyles LOSS.

Connacht v Scarlets

One point stopped me from cashing in last week as Connacht stubbornly put up a fight to stop Glasgow beating the handicap. I've had a love hate relationship this season with them but for this weekend I'll be cheering them on.

After two strong performances in Europe for the Westies this game is crucially for them on numerous levels. Questions have once again arisen regarding various areas including their funding, making the next step and are they worth it? Personally I believe they are treated poorly by IRFU and just don't have the resources to be consistent, however on their day and there are plenty of them they can punch much higher than their weight.

For this game they have almost their first string squad. Last season saw Bradley target games and I'm sure he knows they don't travel well, as was seen by them shipping plenty of points against Glasgow last week. They've got a strong pack and first choice backline. Importantly they are getting penalites and kicking points.

Scarlets are missing their key man tomorrow, Stephen Jones. His return from the Lions coincided with them going on a three game winning streak beat London Irish away, although Priestland started the last game against the Dragons. Personally I believe without the Lion they are nothing special. They are also missing Ree's their best pack player and four others to the Welsh national side.

With the rain and wind likely to be a factor again at the Sportground I think this could be the time for Connacht to get some points back on the board. In the last two games against the Scarlets in the Sportsground there has only been a maximum of three points separating the teams and both teams have a win each. With Scarlets picking a weakened side, bad weather likely and Connacht due a win I'm cheering on the boys in green once more.

Recommendation: Connacht + 5 @1.91 for 2pts with Boyles or Coral WON. Connacht to win @2.63 for 1 point with BetFred WON. Unders are priced up at this time, if they are around 35 points, get on (Only one bookie stook up a spread of this and that was 33 so not counting this bet).

Magners League Round 6

It was a pleasant weekend's betting and I finished narrowly up. London Irish seemingly so focused on beating Leinster two weeks ago couldn't beat a fired up Llanelli which surprised me and my bank balance. Well the H-Cup is parked until December so what's in store this weekend?

Ulster v Leinster

Another weather affected game this. It will be raining quite heavily from lunch time and continue with strong enough wind expected throughout the game. Right that's my Micheal Fish bit finished but it's important.

Team sheet wise the IRFU 2 year World Cup programme is really having an effect. Both teams are far from first choice in key areas but which are the ones that will matter the most. Ronnie McCormack starts in front row for Leinster in what will no doubt be a scrum heavy game and he is a severe weak link for Leinster against first choice front row for Ulster. Leinster have the edge in terms second row and Ulster losing Ferris is big. Horua who comes in is good but I think Leinster really have a form back row in what will be tricky conditions.

Once we get to the backs some interesting selection. Leinster's nine ten is very weak. Berne showed reasonably skill at 1st centre earlier in the season but not a great show at 10. Keane is an average Magners League player but if he can kick well it may cover up Leinster's weakness here. Humphries has been playing well this season but with Wallace rested at first centre once you get out of the scrum Ulster start to look a little ropey. Humphries also isn't the great defender in the world. Wallace is vital to linking up any moves which Ulster have been doing well with this season. Ian Whitten is a strong runner but himself and Trimble are similar and offering only straight line ability and no quick hands. Also neither can kick with ball in hand.

Overall I think Leinster with a strong 11-15 have the edge in the backs. One key point in their favour is that Ulster play from deep and defence a little bit deeper than most teams. Leinster have problems dealing with blitz defences but probably won't have that here. It won't be a classic but has to be better than the shocking game at Murrayfield last night and the unders are probably going to be the one to watch as traditional wet games in Ravenhill end up low scoring.

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 1.91 for 1pt with Stan James LOST, Under 34 points @ 2.0 for 1pt with William Hill WON.

Edinburgh v Munster

I find it quite funny when people get annoyed when no one prices up games for the Magners league on Betfair sometimes. Granted the liquidity can be poor on some games (markedly so this year) however it pays to price up matches. I often have a quick glance at the team sheets when they come out and throw up prices I'd be happy to get matched at. Today I went looking for Edinburgh at 3.0 thinking they would start at about 2.3ish. Bang got matched, it wasn't for much but I'm a happy camper. So if you have an opinion put up prices you'd be happy to get match at. Sure you can price it wrong and be caught on the wrong side (been there bought the...) but if it was a price you were happy to take and you considered it value then it was personally a good bet.

Looking at this game it's quite hard to call. The rain is supposed to come early and often and like Glasgow it should be heavy however not that windy. Both teams have had mixed European results and Munster are starting this season slowly. Edinburgh were very happy to beat an inform Ulster and they started to play well in the last 30 mins of the game. Munster this season seem to starting games very poorly and at this time of year they have traditionally not performed well after coming back from Heineken Cup games. Their set piece has been awful and can't be helped by missing three of their front row options because of injury. Edinburgh have proved tough to beat at home and with the return of Chris Patterson that's like starting off with nine points because of his right boot.

It's a very difficult game to call and I think the weather could stop Munster from kicking on from some improvement that was seen in the second half of their last game. The last four times they've met the score has only got past 35 points once, add that to the weather the unders look an option. Munster this season have been ridiculously slow out of the blocks, only being 6-6 against Dragons at home at half-time and letting their Italian opponents go 10 points up after 20 mins last week. I don't think it'll be a classic and Munster probably won't be able to build phases from weak set pieces so far this season but might just scrape it.

Recommendation: Edinburgh/Munster @6.5 for 0.5pt LOST and Under 38.5 pts @1.9 for 1pt on Betfair or other bookmakers, once they price it up WON.

Glasgow v Connacht

I've had a love hate relationship with cheering on or going against Connacht this year. They have just put two decent games together but importantly they often find it hard to put three together because of their small squad. They defence doesn't seem to travel to well either and on the road they concede a lot of points, on average 31 in the last 6 games.

Connacht have made two changes from last week however they are slightly weaker and no doubt suffering from fatigue. Their back and second rows aren't great and this season seem to be under the cosh for nearly every away game at every set piece. Glasgow return from Europe after two defeats albeit not by much. Importantly they now have their first choice centre partnership and Max Evans back on the wing for the first time this season.

Interestingly this time last year Glasgow started a bit of a run and have always been very strong at home. Connacht haven't won in Scotland for four games in a row and with a thin squad this could be another tough day in Scotland. The forecast predicts heavy rain from after lunch which could stop Glasgow's running style however at this fixture last yea, Glasgow managed to finish strongly and win 30-9 in howling wind and rain so it's not so much of a worry. After Connacht have travelled back from France, only had two or three days to train and just a few players changes I think that the handicap line of 14.5pt is achievable for Glasgow. The weather will be an issue but Glasgow are used to playing with the rain in the faces at Firhill.

Recommendation: Glasgow -14.5pts @ 1.91 for 1.5 point LOST. Price freely available.

Heineken Cup Round 2 Tipping and Betting

After this weekend's betting current profit is: £1299.85 or 13pts. ROI is 49.99%.

-----Update 17/10/2009 9am-------

Not much time to do write up. Saturday's bets.

London Irish -11.5pt at 1.91 for 2pts Lost and London Irish -22 for .5pts Lost.
Ulster -5pts @1.91 for 1pt Won


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Great weekend last week punting wise and the Leicester v Osprey's game was spectacular. Leinster didn't do me proud but it's not all over...... yet.

Dragons v Glasgow

This all Magners league clash is pretty interesting. Glasgow have game controller Cuister back whist Dragons put out two débutantes at each side of the hooker. You always have to be wary of an all new front row and the Scottish pack are no push over. However the overall package from Glasgow this season have been hot and cold.

Glasgow started the season well but fell to a bad defeat against Dragons earlier this season and showed their frailty on the road. I backed Dragons that day as Glasgow weren't at full strength. They do now have Cuister and one of the Evans back which certainly makes a difference however their record away from home is pretty poor and the Dragons have made their home a fortress this season.

I don't think this is going to be as an easy game for the Dragons as it was last time, however apart from Parks you can't see where points are going to come from in the Glasgow back line. Last week was two narrow losses for both these teams but the Dragons have probably more to be cheerful about by scoring two tries away from home and narrowly losing out to a gritty Gloucester.

Recommendation: Dragons -2 at 2.0 on Totesport for 1pt. Won

Perps v Northampton

Leinster beat Munster 30-0, Leinster got beaten by London Irish, Northampton beat Munster and Treviso beat Perpingan so how can you work out this one?

Well the best thing to do sometimes is have a look at what the bookies might think. My 'insiders' at Paddy's informed me that they were offering a shop only bonus price of 3.0 on a Leinster/Munster double. They duly got hammered on the offer and had to drop it. Shortly before game time Leinster were backed in from 1.4 to 1.3. Paddy Powers opened up at 11/10 on Munster which ended up going off at shorter than 4/5 everywhere else.

For this game Paddy's show a two points different on Perps at -8 whilst everyone else is at 6. Perps are embarrassed by last week. Northampton beat Munster, but they should have. The teams deeply affected by the Lions haven't looked sharp or fit and none scored a victory in the first week of the H-Cup.

Recommendation: Perps -6.5 at 1.95 on Betfair for 1pt. Won

Rest of the Games:

I'm going to be out and about for the weekend so might not have a chance to follow the first handicap lines for the rest of the weekend. So if you are online tomorrow at 1ish some matches and lines I'd look out for are:

London Irish v Llanneli - said it many times here, a strong attacking team at home against the Scarlets are great proposition, if you have a strong pack even better. You saw it with Ulster and you'll see it again here with Irish. Anything around the minus 9-10 mark on Irish is a steal. I'd actually fancy a cheeky punt on Irish minus 20.

Edinburgh v Ulster - The northerners have done me proud the last few weeks and I'm getting a little wary and waiting for them to stop their good run. Last year they never won more than two games in a row. They go to the graveyard of Murrayfield however on first look at the win market on Betfair I thought the prices would be a lot closer. Edinburgh's early season form has faded and they aren't free scoring or as dangerous as they were. Can Ulster win a fourth in a row I don't know, however I thought they had a good chance and might be a 2.25 shot. They're currently 2.5 on a 110% book. If you could get Ulster plus 5-6 that would be great value. I'd nearly fancy them to win outright as well at 2.7 if that manages to make it's way up there.

Osprey v Clermont - Team sheet, team sheet, team sheet. If Clermont don't stick out a decent team Ospreys could run up a score. I'm no expert on French rugby so you'd need to study Clermont's team. Ospreys looked great for most of the match against Leicester and are just finding their fitness and form now. If they didn't have two amateurs as props they'd have easily won the game.

Well a pretty successful weekend and clearly I know more about Leinster, which is a bit worrying.

To the right is a screen shot of the current profit and ROI. Doing nicely

Heineken Cup Round One Tipping and Betting

Well what a great week it was last week for myself. Firstly a nice 6.5 winner but the cous d'etat was watch Leinster v Munster. Sure Munster hammered us at home last season and by a good scoreline in Thomond (although a flattering one) and then we went onto to win the H-Cup. But they've been comprehensively whacked by Leinster twice. Worryingly I just couldn't see any player who showed up for Munster and their pack looked weak. More on that later. Just an update before this weekends games I'm 7.85 pts up and have a ROI of 35%.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts, Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow massively impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored a few more tries. Bath themselves don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster powerful runners on that front. Ulster looked great these past two weeks and iHumphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace who is a perfect player make for strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted I can expect Ulster to win this, they have to in order to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at 2.0 for 3pts with Stan James/Expekt Won. Ulster -8 at 3.75 with PP's for 1pt Won.

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday, they were immense. From 1 to 22 they showed an immense desire that you couldn't expect to see at this early stage of the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter such as myself could have foreseen that scoreline.

Only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England regularly hammering teams with a full on running side. Leinster however one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on our excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try however I can see their forwards suffering to an inform front line and back row from for Leinster.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last weeks result. Historically Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of a entertaining game and personally I think Leinster will either win a close game by 5 points or else by 15 being totally dominant. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but should be calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at 1.73 on Betfair or Bluesquare for 1 point.Lost

Magners League Round 5

Ulster v Scarlets

I'm quite surprised with bookies' line on this one. I think they underestimate Ulster here. Whilst on paper they don't have a great record against Llanelli and haven't enthralled their fans at home their last three games they have been very strong signs of a good team building up. Obviously away to Ospreys they showed some battle and expansive play and then continued this until the final 20 mins of the Edinburgh game at home. Last week they went to Connacht and thoroughly dismissed Connacht, which is something not many teams do at the Sportsground.

The Scarlets luckily have Mr. Stephen Jones back. He automatically adds balance and points to their package however this is his first game back and few returning Lions have flown out of the blocks so far in their first game. Looking at their backline they don't have any stand out line breakers or ability to score tries. Ulster do. With Ferris back as well Ulster want to the monkey off their back and get their first home win this season. I always maintain that the Scarlets can't defence the breakdown and are too slow in this area and Ulster are great counter attackers. Having Wallace back for Ulster also opens up their play and ability.

Recommendation:- Ulster -4.5pts at 1.94 for 2 points on Betfair WON and Ulster -16.5points at 6.5 on PP's for 0.5 points WON.

Current Profit: £784.60 or 7.85pts. ROI 34%

Magners League Round 4

Last weekend was emotional, maybe there is something to be learned from it with my bet choice however I thought there was massive value on the Leinster/Leinster only to be robbed by a Scottish ref!

This weekend is slightly more difficult to pick out the winners on Saturday's games. First up though is Friday night's game.

Connacht v Ulster

I had a few quick texts/comments from my loyal Connacht supporter (notice the singular) to gloat. Fair play to them, they turned it upside down and we've seem some short price teams, Cardiff last week at 1.15 and Ospreys at 1.07 against Ulster lose. Now who says the Magners league isn't interesting, however I think this could be back to business as usual for Connacht.

They interestingly have not won two games in a row in the league since Sept 2006. Last year they beat Munster and Leinster at home but lost to Ulster by two points. In fact Ulster haven't lost to Connacht in their last 8 games.

Ulster last week had a blistering opening pace and looked much better than Edinburgh but missed some early chances and kicks. With Paddy Wallace coming back in at certain I think it adds a little more class and better kicking. Ferris is out however Henry is a strong replacement. With powerful runners likes Nagusa and Danelli Connacht will have a tough time defending them. They were slightly lucky that poor kicking from Keatley stopped Connacht from winning last time though. I just feel that Ulster have more to offer and Connacht though competitive for inter-provs haven't improved their side from last year.

If Ulster come out like they did last week they'll put a score up against Ulster however I wouldn't want another verbal-bashing from the singular Connacht fan.

Recommendation - Ulster/Ulster @2.12 for 1 point with Betfair WON.

Glasgow v Osprey's

On paper Osprey's, in reality Glasgow. What is the story with Welsh teams this year? Apart from the Dragons (the Welsh development side????) not one team has a back bone or a bit of class.

I really think this is quite simple, Glasgow are a good side and Ospreys are pants so far. Sure they might turn it on with Williams back but their back line was flat and standing still for the whole game last week. Added to the fact that I'm expecting Scott Johnson to give me a call to go in at front row for next week they have no pack. Glasgow have an excellent front row and if Osprey's finished where they left off last week they'll be hammered up front.

You can still back both teams at evens at the moment but I would price Glasgow as a 1.75 shot to be honest. They have an Evans back and the impression I got from last week was that they were rotating for the Dragons (the number one team in Wales) who beat them comfortably.

Recommendation:- Glasgow to win 2.1 for 2 points with Totesport LOST.

I don't have time to stick up my profit as I'm running to the pub but I'm in profit, honest ;)

Twitter

Apparently this was the new thing 6 months ago.

I'm on it and you can stalk me on there if you're that lonely - http://twitter.com/kendoesrugby/

It's Back - Magners League Round 3

Scarlets v Munster

Munster go into this game with a pretty comfortable win at home against Cardiff, who then showed last night that they really have problems on the road in losing to Connacht. Scarlets who are also bad travellers lost away to Glasgow, who subsequently got royally thumped by the Dragons last night.

Munster are currently 6-0 for the last six meetings between these sides and even though they are weakened by not having their two first choice locks, 7 and favoured 9-10 partnership they are by no means massively depleted. Niall Ronan has stepped up a gear at 7 since leaving Leinster and Manning is playing well at 10 . Luckily this 3 month contract scrum half from NZ actually went to school with Manning over there so at least they know each other and O'Leary is waiting on the bench for a return from injury. There only weakness in the back is Hurley who in my opinion isn't a great player.

Scarlets have one major problem (and plenty of smallers one) and that's the breakdown. With Munster's almost first choice back row available there will be a fierce amount of turnovers and slowing down of play which will stop a very average Scarlets backline from playing. Scarlets in my opinon are side going from bad to worse and seem to be in no mans land with ball in hand.

This is a really interesting game from a punting perspective and some of the bookies have taken different opinions which is always nice to see. You rarely see Munster not being favourites for a game and you should always side with them in that event, especially considering they've beaten these guys 6 from 6. Scarlets beat a completely unfit and under prepared Leinster team at home in the first game and only just after losing in the first half and some dodgy sinbins. Interestingly of the last six games these side have met, they've beaten the current total points spread of 38.5 three times. With both teams so far between them only managing 5 tries in 4 games and Munster having a strong defence I think the unders are value.

Recommendations: Munster to win @ 2.1 for 2 points on Betfair WON. Total match points under 38.5pts @ 2.0 for 1 point on Labrokes LOST.

Comment slash learnings on last nights games:

I fecking hate Scottish refs! Unbelievable denied a nice 4.0 in that game. Connacht showed plenty of spirit to come back from 0-7 down and proved me wrong. Glasgow missing 2/3 players are quite weak while the Dragons look to be a team to back at home no matter what the opposition which could be interesting for the H-Cup.


--------------------------------------------------

Sorry for the delay in getting going again. Clearly I'm still possessing a small hangover from the Heineken Cup victory celebrations!

It's been an interesting two rounds so far in the Magners league with a few interesting results. Most people like to stay away from the first few games. I don't tend to agree, if you've done you homework. For me I've been on holidays and flying around Europe so I haven't had the time to do the intense research you've come to expect ;)

Connacht v Cardiff

To be honest I don't think there could be anything worse than being a Connacht supporter. Somewhat permanently stuck in limbo from ever been allowed to be a good team and scraping around for money. They had a massive clear out with almost a full first 15 kicked out with and only a few interesting signings. It looked like a decent start with a narrow loss at home to Ospreys however that form looked with Osprey's losing to Ulster at home the following week. Then Connacht gave Edinburgh their biggest ever victory at Murrayfield.

Cardiff seem to have better form, losing narrowly to strong starters Edinburgh and rueing some terrible kicking from Sam Night-Rider. This guy had a shocker and couldn't control his bowls. In their second game they lost out to Munster but conceded a massive amount of turnovers and kept it respectable still. If they can and I think they will reduce these turnovers they'll improve.

The handicap of eight points in my opinion is too low due, it's probably based on the belief that Connacht will always put up a fight at home. Hpwever time and time again a team who can unleash powerful runners (Thomas, Heighpenny and Roberts who is just back) against Connacht score tries. The Osprey's aren't on great form and they managed to win by 7 against Connacht.

Recommendation: Cardiff - 8 at 1.91 on Paddy Power for 1 point LOST.

Dragons v Glasgow

This game is quite simple in my opinion. Both teams are getting stronger however injuries are going to be making a difference in this. Without the Evans's brothers Glasgow lack real bite and they didn't finish off the Scarlets last week who aren't a great side missing just one of them.

Dragons put in a spirited performance and have only lost once in 7 league games (and that was Munster) at home. Glasgow only won once in 7 and conceded on average 28 points per game.

Recommendation: Dragons to win halftime/fulltime @ 2.5 on Stan James for 1 point WON and Dragons - 2 @ 1.91 on Boylesports for one point WON.

Osprey's vs Leinster

I know some of you think I'm obviously biased on Leinster, but then again I'd argue by saying I spend more attention watching them and know them better. I was at their last pre-season game and they were completely undercooked and it was why they lost to Scarlets. I think Cheika is just slowly warming them up for a long disrupted season, which a few other teams have. Osprey's with this similar problem have started slow out of the box and missing plenty of internationals. Then again, they haven't been playing great for awhile even with in-form Welsh players.

I was surprised Leinster weren't starting as favourites considering Osprey's lost last week but maybe it's the Byrne return factor. However players coming back might not be as sharp. I think the Leinster forward line are tough with the exception of a weakness in Fogarty, while Sean O'Brien and McLaughlin have been playing stormers. This is where they should muscle Osprey's who were out-muscled by out of form Ulster last week at home.

Interestingly Leinster have been starting games well and Shaun Berne has been keeping the score board running with drop goals. I think this could be a close enough encounter but Osprey's will really have to improve from previous weeks and I really don't fancy their chances of even making the top four by the end of the season.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime @ 4.0 for 1 point on Betfair or William Hill LOST.

Magners League Betting 17th & 18th April

Well I've calmed down a bit after last weekends heroics by Leinster and punting prowess. Hopefully we'll be as successful in the punting and keep the nice roll going.

Edinburgh v Leinster

Cheika came out after last week's game and said his players were 'broken' after the win against Quins. The team selection clearly shows that some players are broken and can't even make the the flight over. Leinster's strength in depth has improved in recent seasons however it is more because of players being pushed out of their position and falling down the pecking order at this stage than a new breed of fringe players. Really this is possibly the worst team they could field. Although O'Brien and McFadden are good players, the front row and second row are seriously short of game time and most likely ability. These Leinster players aren't sharp and don't have that much game time especially in the pack.

Edinburgh, who didn't play great two weeks but got a strong result, 16-3 against Cardiff (who went on to beat Toulouse), again name another strong squad here. Leinster's inexperienced front row will suffer (and I'd be surprised if they last). They don't have Rocky who has carried them over the line for numerous games this season and Nacewa at ten is worrying. Edinburgh have strong kickers (they are scoring plenty of drop goals) and play a similar style to the England squad Robinson was involved in, keep the scoreboard ticking over. It won't be a try fest barring terrible defensive errors but won by kickers, of which Leinster don't have one. Nacewa kicked for the Blues but if he was good why hasn't he stepped in for Felipe or even take a few long pot shots?

This game last season saw Leinster lose by 3 points against a weaker Edinburgh side and they (Leinster) were at full strength, remember Edinburgh are genearlly excellent at home. I don't think these fringe Leinster players can focus and keep up the league push here, unfortunately.

Recommendation:- Edinburgh -11pts @2.5 for 1.5points on Paddy P's.

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Glasgow v Ulster

Ulster lost two weeks ago against what can only be described as a weakend Ospreys team who's first squad were royally whipped last week. Previously before that they lost by around 25points against Leinster who can't score tries. Matt Williams this season has been saying all the right things but it looks like the spark that they produced around the festive season may have fizzled now that they don't have anything to play for.

Glasgow themselves (as predicted by me!) won away against Llanelli. The Scarlets are all over the place at the moment but stilll it was a very respectable result and try tally by Glasgow and they can play when up for it. I think they'll continue against an improving but ultimately average Ulster defence. Ulster have conceded on average since Jan 23.2points each game on the road whilst the Dragons don't seem to have problems scoring tries but conede a few.

So it should be an open enough game and but with Cave and Nagusa not playing for Ulster (because of form issues) they lack some real pace and O'Connor isn't a game turner at 10 yet, so I can't see where the points are coming from. The Evans brothers are quality Magners league players who in good playing conditions (which it should be tomorrow night) will look to reverse the 12-0 loss to Ulster in March in terrible conditions.

Recommendation: Glasgow -6 for 2pts on Betfair at 2.0. Over 38.5pt @1.95 for 1pt on Betfair

Some more Magners league betting predictions and previews by click here

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

Munster v Ospreys

Munster played well and took all the chances required to beat Leinster last week. Ronan O'Gara took his points and they got two tries from soft defending however never looked under severe pressure. I expect this game tomorrow to go the same.

Ospreys are missing Byrne, Henson, Walker in the backs and are weakened slightly in the forwards by injury. Munster have a full strength squad to choose from apart from Tipoki. The Munster forwards should improve from a below average performance last week a should dominate this game and provide their backs, with the vastly improving Earls at second centre, good ball to score.

Ospreys haven't played particularly well all season and all the Welsh teams haven't played consistently well since Christmas. I don't expect this to be a massive try scoring game and even possibly see Munster be outscored in tries but they will win by 10points. Another preview that shares my belief for Munster v Ospreys, click here

Recommendation: Munster to win Halftime/Fulltime @ 1.66 for 2 points, WON. Munster -7.5 @1.92 for 1 pt. WON

Harlequins v Leinster

As can only be expected last week Leinster were berated in the media for a listless performance. I was their shouting them on from the sidelines and maybe I was wearing blinkers but I thought we performed very well and were let down by Felipe's kicking and two very poor attempts at tackling by Horgan and Kearney. These two shocking defensive errors let Munster in to score with their only meaningful attempts at the line. What could be taken out of the game for Leinster was, they had possession, stole 9 balls at the ruck and Rocky Elsom is the greatest back row forward in the world today.

Harlequins have been in excellent form losing only once in 10 games and last week on scraps of possession held back a poor Bath team in the Rec. I've always been of the view that English teams are overrated because of Sky hype and I think this applies here to. Quins have a strong pack however this Leinster pack last week out-scrummed and rucked the best pack in Europe. This Leinster backrow is perfectly balanced and probably the best running back row in Europe.

Quins have an exciting backline themselves with a few in form players and probably the best Kiwi import of the season in Evans at 10, although he is coming back from four weeks off and could be a little rusty. I went against Leinster last week for the simple reason their centre partnership was completely skewed towards a rugby league stsyle. Darcy is not a 13 and Horgan isn't a centre. Those guys don't have the hands to release the rest of the backs. With Brian and Luke back in play this dramatically changes Leinster's potency with ball in hand.

While its a big ask I have to fall back on the belief on what I've been backing all season and that is that English teams are overrated. Felipe needs to and should have his kicking boots back on while Whitaker needs to be quicker (which he was last week).

Leinster opened up at 2.1 and I could never back them at that price. They are now being matched at 2.5 and I think this could even hit 2.6 by lunchtime tomorrow with the English punters coming in on Betfair.

It should be cracker. A more sceptical Heinken Cup Quins v Leinster preview available by click here

Recommendation: Leinster to win @ 2.5 for 1 point WON.

Current Profit: €1340.23 or 13.49 points with a 12.41% ROI for the season so far.

Sorry I haven't been posting of late. Been pretty busy with other things and getting over a Grand Slam hangover.

Scarlets v Glasgow

Looking at the results over the past few days the one thing that stands out is that the Welsh sides are playing terrible at the moment. Connacht hammering Gwent last night and Cardiff losing away to Edinburgh. Ospreys obviously got a result but with sharper kicking the game would have gone Ulster's way.

I just have a feeling considering how stop start Scarlets can be and terrible they are at the ruck Glasgow might get something out of this game. Stephen Jones always steadies the ship with the Scarlets but I think they might struggle to win here comfortably.

Recommendation: Glasgow +8 on for 1.5 pts on Boyles Won.

Munster v Leinster

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Leinster last week and thought their execution and patience was excellent. Without a few key players they showed great maturity to win when they easily could have been losing at halftime. However Ulster really bottled it. Watching their game now against a poor Osprey's side the form indicates that Leinster may have been flattered by the result because Ulster seemed to have stepped off the gas again.

Munster last week did what they do so well and got the points, comfortably against a side that has proved tricky to all Irish provinces before. The lineup of each side really indicates the coaches viewpoint of the importance of this game. I think Cheika has slightly written it off by bringing Horgan in from the wing to centre and keep Fitz and O'Driscoll out of the squad. The only reason to have Horgan in their could be to challenge the inexperienced Earls in that position. Apart from Rocky I think Leinster will suffer terribly at the breakdown as they didn't provide cover and consistency until well into the second half last week.

It should be an entertaining game but I think McGahan really wants to win the title on Saturday and has picked a team to do so. A French ref brought over for the game may be swayed by the home crowd pressure.

Recommendation: Munster to win half time/full time for 1pt @1.81 on Betfair Won. Munster - 6 @1.91 for 1point on Hills Won.

After this weeks bets current profit: €993.98 (9.9pts) and a 9.56% Return on Investment.

6 Nations week 4

No recommendations this weekend I'm afraid just a few ideas. With Cheltenham and moving to England taking most of the attention this week I haven't had the time to research.

I backed Ireland -6.5pts yesterday myself which obviously came up, albeit with some nail biting involved. England v France is certainly an interesting game. Looking at the form lines Wales have probably showed they aren't the side they were last year in losing to France who looked much better with Parra at scrum half, still France only seem to have one big game followed by a disappointment.

Le Rostbiffs love to ruin France's day however I find they are too short at 2.16. What is interesting is that fact that most bookies have France -2 at 1.91 while you can back them for a straight win at 1.96 on Betfair. You are getting a strong 20% better price on Betfair which you don't see that often for the Betfair rugby markets. I'll be taking advantage of it anyway as I think France will win as they need something out of this season.

If you did fancy France to really open up and play the 3.5 for France -10 on Ladbrokes might also be tempting. Also worth a tickle is Flood v Trin Duc, click here to view market. With England most likely to concede another raft of penalties Trin Duc is a decent shot to come out top at 2.04-2.2.

Best of luck.

Magners League weekend 03/03/2009

After this weekends action Profit Currently: 710.18 or 7.1pts. A 7.07% ROI (posted 08/3/2009)

Ulster v Glasgow

Not much time for a write up unfortunately.

Ulster have a strong squad again. The weather isn't great but they should have home advantage and a much stronger pack to make this easily controllable. Glasgow made a late comeback after Cardiff switched off (which they did in the first half last night again).

If it was a nice day for rugby I would have Ulster -12pts and probably punt on the alternative handicap markets but the weather will probably keep it respectable. Glasgow haven't won away since September and are missing a more players through the Internationals

Recommendation: Ulster - 8pts on Boyles or Ladbrokes @1.91 for 1.5pts Won

06/03/2009

Another second string Magners league weekend, where hopefully knowledge is power. I personally find these games great because you get to see emerging players and also see if some squad players are worth their weight in cider.

The Hairsprey's Lite vs. Leinster

I was quite surprised by the handicap line for this game and quickly snapped up the minus 2pts on offer for Leinster by Ladbrokes yesterday evening. Two weeks ago Leinster went over to the Scarlets and got a massive result, winning by two converted tries. Granted it wasn't the greatest Scarlets however this weekend neither is this vintage Ospreys.

Most importantly the Osprey's haven't been playng great this season. They have got results in the league, but mainly by avoiding defeat against poor teams. Tonight Ryan Jones has said these young players will shine as Ospreys are missing 12 first teamers. After watching them against Connacht (the team with the worst away record in the Magners league) they are far from the finished product. They were lucky to lead at half time and only won by 12 points.

Leinster on the other hand are missing only three first teamers and two weeks ago put in a very professional performance and returned to scoring ways. Their new scrum half looked capable, McFadden (as I predicted) played a blinder and Healy proved that he should really be on the Irish 22 soon.

The mid international games are always tricky, but with Osprey's essentially putting up a completely different team to their first team Leinster look worthy favourites. I was suprised with how short the handicap was, I expected minus 7 for Leinster but then again I'm a believer.

Recommendation:- Leinster - 2.5pts @1.9 for 2 points with Betfair , Leinster Halftime/Fulltime 2.62 for 1pt with Ladbrokes and finally Leinster -11pts @3.25 pts for 0.5pts on Ladbrokes.

For some other opinions here for this weekend's game, click here.

Connacht v Cardiff

Connacht need a morale boosting win and 6.30 before the 'daggs' seems to sap the life out of opposing teams. They are practically full strength against a Cardiff side who are missing sprinklings of their first team.

Cardiff were very rusty lask week, sprinting off into a big lead but then letting a weakend Glasgow get back at them. I think the bookies are a little skimpy on the handicap for Connacht here, possibly because they viewed them as keeping it respectable against the Osprey last week. While I thought the Ospreys were just not up to it.

Recommendation: No bet.

Six Nations Betting - 3rd Round

Leaving work (still on the clock GR) but just wanted to get my tips up.

France v Wales

What is Marc up to? A new 9, 10 partnership who have barely had two full days to train together this week plus Baby hasn't played 10 since September. This decision isn't as bad as Bergamasco in the first round but is equally as puzzling. Combined with the fact the French players played at the weekend, they aren't fresh or prepared. If Philips can break a line this week they are in trouble.

Wales haven't been playing their best but if they play as they can (and offload this time) they'll beat France. Last week they were concerned with beating England rather than playing well. If they play today France could be in trouble. I'm not the only one who thinks Wales are better prepared click here.

Recommendation: Wales Halftime/Fulltime @ 2.4 for 1pts

Ireland v England

Last time England came they were in rag order. It was possibly one of the weakest teams that ever travelled to Dublin, I was not suprised with the result, especially as most of their players played the week before. This year they aren't much better however their expectations are a lot lower.

Ireland will win this game but I couldn't trust us in the handicap, everything says we should beat them by 10 or 11 points but I'd wait until the first ten mins are up to see what England are trying to do. I really don't think they'll have a plan to beat Ireland, but merely to stop Ireland as they did against Wales two weeks ago. We'll either win by 4 points or 14. One thing is with England getting sin bins like its going out of fashion ROG will have plenty of opportunities to kick for penalties.

Recommendation: Ireland Halftime/Fulltime @1.76 for 3pts and first scoring play, Ireland penalty @ 2.82 for 0.5pt.

Best of luck at the weekend and hope you turn a profit!